CEO Morning Brief

CPO Prices Seen at RM4,250-RM4,550 a Tonne in 1Q, Says MPOC

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Publish date: Tue, 21 Jan 2025, 10:25 AM
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KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 20): The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects crude palm oil (CPO) prices to trade between RM4,250 and RM4,550 per tonne in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q2025), underpinned by low inventory, stable demand, and constrained supply of other edible oils.

While the monsoon season, which had disrupted harvesting activities, is tapering off, public holidays in January are anticipated to reduce working days.

This is consistent with historical levels recorded in 2018, 2019, and 2023, said the MPOC, which expects seasonal factors to further constrain production and lift consumption until February, including reduced working days due to public holidays, and festive demand driven by Chinese New Year and Ramadan, the council said in a statement.

Malaysia’s palm oil inventories fell below the long-term average at end-2024, at 1.71 million tonnes, driven by the monsoon season, a sharp drop in imports, and as domestic demand exceeded production, the MPOC noted.

In December 2024, Malaysian palm oil production fell 8.3% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 4.2% year-on-year, while exports declined 9.9% m-o-m to 1.34 million tonnes.

Inventories are likely to remain below average, hovering around 1.7 million tonnes in 1Q2025, before the peak production season begins, the MPOC added.

Source: TheEdge - 21 Jan 2025

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