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[转帖] 盈利?现金流?- 夜月

Tan KW
Publish date: Thu, 17 Oct 2013, 11:02 AM
Tan KW
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Good.

一家公司最主要的目的就是赚钱。而我们买入一家公司的股票,成为公司的股东,当然希望公司可以赚钱。因为公司赚钱,就可以越发展越大,股价就会上涨,股东 也可以得到更多的股息。然而,越来越多投资者开始不看公司的盈利,而注重在公司获得的现金流,到底盈利和现金流有什么差别?

 
盈利(Net profit)就是营业额(Revenue)减掉所有的费用(Cost)所剩下的,也就是公司赚到的钱。然而,公司赚到的钱并不等于公司收到的现金。到底这些钱跑到哪里去了呢?
 
以下有几个地方是投资者需要注意的,因为这些可能是使到公司赚到的钱无缘无故消失的地方。
 
1 Receivables
Receivables 是指顾客欠公司的钱。做生意很多时候不会用现金,会有拖欠。当商品卖出去之后,不管有没有收到钱,都会算到profit里面。生意越做越大,当然receivables也会越来越高。然而要时时注意到底这笔钱最终有没有收回来,还是已经变成坏账了,不然赚了多少钱都是假的。
 
2 Inventories
Inventories是指库存,库存包括原料、半成品和完成品。有时,一部分赚到的钱会去增加库存。库存的增加需要去查明它的原因,是因为商品卖不出还是先买原料来收。此外,库存也会根据所售商品而不同,有些商品可以收很久,有些不能。收太久商品变质了就会浪费钱。
 
3 Purchase of property, plant and equipment
一家公司要越做越大,很多时候会将赚到的钱去扩张业务,也就是所谓的CAPEX,去买工厂买地等等。要时时注意公司CAPEX的费用。当公司花越多钱去扩张业务,理所当然来年的营业额会越来越大,盈利越来越高。如果一家公司花很多钱去发展,但是营业额没什么改变,那么这笔钱是不是花错地方了呢?
 
4 Purchases of available-for-sale financial assets
当一家公司觉得现金太多没有地方花,就可能会去买金融商品如:股票或债券来赚钱。投资者要去注意到底公司买的是什么,赚不赚到钱。然而当一家公司花太多金钱和心思在这个地方,就会变成不务正业,一间好的公司理当将钱花在本身的业务上。
 
5 Dividend
公司赚到钱,很多时候会将一部分的盈利分发股息给股东,来奖励股东一直以来的支持。要注意的地方是如果公司赚不多钱,但是还是发放大量的股息,那就是有问题了。公司可能通过变卖资产来保持发息,这样对公司长期来讲是有害的。
 
总结:从上述看来,公司赚到的钱有时还不确定能不能收到,所以有一些投资者会将重心放在现金流上,因为只有拿到手的钱才是实在的。
 
 

http://moonitez89.blogspot.com/2013/10/blog-post_16.html

Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 8 of 8 comments

kcchongnz

A good article by 夜月 on what cash flow is.

Some people why I don't use PE ratio to value a stock. that is it.

The "E" in this PE ratio is an accounting number. It is not cash. It depends on how accountant recognized that E. That E could be hidden in the inventories, which could be much less than the actual value. The value and quantum of E could have been recognized by what the company thinks it is, by not by the debtors. for example in construction, the contractors can claim for all kind of additional costs such as variation orders, loss of profit and expenses, additional work beyond the contract agreement etc. But are all these claims true? Often not according to the clients and consultants.

Companies also manipulate this E big time often. For example, companies capitalize marketing cost rather than expending them; take one time off gain as if it is regular E etc. There are thousand ways this E can be manipulated.

Cash flow is not that easy to manipulate because it involves real cash, affecting the bank balance of a company. But it doesn't mean the company cannot manipulate at all. One can see many Chinese companies having good profit and cash flows too. And they can also show you the bank statement that they have plenty of cash (note cash flow is not cash in banks). But can one verify whether if this cash is real? Can one goes to the Chinese banks to verify? Wonder why these "great" Chinese companies nobody wants to invest?

Basically if you invest in a company your friend asks you to, are you happy to hear him saying the company making a lot of money, but tell you to put in more and more because those money is still owed by the debtors for so long already. Or you have to put in more money because the equipment need to be maintained or have to buy more new equipment.

Or will you be happier if your friend tells you the business is making 20% return and now he gives you 15% dividend and the rest reinvested for more profit next time?

2013-10-18 08:29

sense maker

Chinese companies listed on KLSE show fantastic level of cash and bank balances but most cash and bank balances, if not all, cannot be reconciled to interest income, suggesting most cash and bank was moved in before quarterly closing and out thereafter by the management.

They need only to pay good dividend obviously to overcome any stigma but most have been paying none, which speaks volume about the philosophy of the controlling shareholders treating the companies as all theirs, disregarding the need of minority interest.

Lastly and most importantly, whatever shown on FS may disappear one day with the controlling shareholder and it is quite impossible to track them down as China is like a world by itself. Minority shareholders can do nothing at all while the controlling shareholders enjoy their wealth in unknown corner of the world, if and when that happens.

2013-10-18 09:34

iafx

kfima, ptaras, fibon, haio, pmcorp etc all have symptoms like the above, included?

ada hantu!? hahaHAHhahahaha...

2013-10-18 09:39

kcchongnz

In this cyber space, there are all kinds of people. There are people who talk sense and we can learn from them, like sense maker. There are people who know nothing and we don't know wtf he is talking about, like this guy iafx with the statement above who never dare to swear that he did not cheat by altering the word "Revenue" to "Profit" in the Kfima thread, and yet accused others for doing so.

2013-10-18 09:49

iafx

oh ya... forgotten, kcchongnz cheated by modified other's comment to suit her statement, later claimed ghost did it!

not to mention about her wonderful "explanation" of PE, pusing & pusing & pusing!

hahahahAHAHhahahaha...

2013-10-18 09:55

kcchongnz

Ha, I have sworn in the Kfima thread that I did not do such a low class thing. Have you?

2013-10-18 10:29

iafx

Ha, anyone asked u to sworn? obviously, siapa curi tipu, siapa rasa pedas!

2013-10-18 10:42

kcchongnz

Sorry guys here, whenever i am attacked for curi tipu, I would like to console myself with some real figures.

New Portfolio Return 18/10/13
Two months 18 days have passed since we first started our portfolio. In this period, KLCI has risen marginally from 1773 to 1798, or 1.4%. but how have our portfolios performed at real time now? Please refer to the thread below:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/19386.jsp

kcchongnz's portfolio has gained an average of 11.3% in the period. That means the portfolio has returned an alpha of 9.8% using the KLCI as a benchmark. 9 out of the 11 stocks made positive return with 4 of them in double digit percentage. They are Datasonic (47.2%), Fibon (33.3%), Pintaras (21.8%) and Daiman (13%). The only two losers only lost marginally, Kfima (-3.9%) and Willoglen at just -2.8%. Details of the return of the portfolio is appended below.


Yes, many counters here were chosen based on good cash flows. So from the results so far in two months, nobody can ridicule me of tipu pusing, bullshit, con people, bluffing, cheating etc, at least for this short-term. Can he?

Ref date Now
New 1/08/2013 18/10/2013
Pintaras 4.990 6.080 0.000 1.090 21.8%
Kfima 2.060 1.900 0.080 -0.080 -3.9%
MFCB 1.700 1.820 0.030 0.150 8.8%
Haio 2.670 2.690 0.000 0.020 0.7%
Fibon 0.330 0.440 0.000 0.110 33.3%
CBIP 2.830 2.890 0.000 0.060 2.1%
Tien Wah 2.510 2.520 0.077 0.087 3.5%
Homeritz 0.430 0.420 0.010 0.000 0.0%
Willow 0.530 0.515 0.000 -0.015 -2.8%
Daiman 2.530 2.860 0.000 0.330 13.0%
Datasonic 3.350 4.930 0.000 1.580 47.2%

Average xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx 11.26%
KLSE 1773 1798 xxxx 25.000 1.41%
Alpha xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx 9.8%

2013-10-18 11:22

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