Fact is, offer price is reasonable only if consider year 2017 earning affected by the licenses revoke. Its too low if to consider its long term potential , especially next year when it recovers....

"Looking at peer comparisons, the takeover offer seems worth considering based on the earnings forecast of 1.7 sen. But it may be worth noting that the company posted earnings per share of 2.24 sen for FY16. "

"The new capacity will translate into stronger earnings growth in future for Hovid when things are falling in place. This may be why Fajar Astoria is keen on pouring in money to take Hovid private — a deal that will cost them about RM243.1 million."

"然而，如果把时间推前一点，该股1年最高曾攀42.9仙，2年最高则报53.6仙，算算下，就显得不划算了"

"翻看何人可往年业绩，2015年的业绩表现最佳，净利为2118万1000令吉，2016财政年盈利虽跌，但仍有1815万令吉净利入袋。"

"直到2017财政年，旗下两家工厂不符合食品良好生产规范（cGMP）及药物品质系统最新规定，被当局吊销生产执照，制药业务即时停摆。受此消息惊吓，加上分析员喊卖，该股一度深跌至24仙，业绩也由盈转亏，全年净损112万2000令吉。"

"所幸的是，上述工厂已在5月份重获卫生部执照，恢复生产，预估可从11月公布截至2017年9月30日止的首季业绩反映出来"

谢汪潮．何人可全购合理？
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Sun, 15 Oct 2017, 09:10 PM

2017-10-15 19:58
上周一，何人可董事经理何树生与Fajar Astoria公司联手全面献购何人可母股与凭单，献购价分别为38仙及20仙。在消息公布前，何人可母股最后作价32仙，凭单挂14仙，即献购价分别溢价18.75%及42.85%；若再比较每股净资产的24.14仙，则是溢价57.42%，这样来看，这个献购价还算合理。
上周一，何人可（HOVID，7213，主板消费品组）董事经理何树生与Fajar Astoria公司（FASB）联手全面献购何人可母股与凭单，献购价分别为38仙及20仙。

在消息公布前，何人可母股最后作价32仙，凭单挂14仙，即献购价分别溢价18.75%及42.85%；若再比较每股净资产的24.14仙，则是溢价57.42%，这样来看，这个献购价还算合理。

然而，如果把时间推前一点，该股1年最高曾攀42.9仙，2年最高则报53.6仙，算算下，就显得不划算了。

由于何树生与FASB无意维持何人可的上市地位，而他们仅持有33.72%母股及43.57%凭单，相信要获股东同意“出让”，恐怕没有那么容易。

年报显示，截至2016年10月4日为止，何人可共有1万497名股东，其中660位股东持有的股权介于10万股至1亿4089万4602股，占总股本的38.08%，想要私有化何人可，必须获得这批股东首肯方有胜算。

同时，依献购价计算，这批尚未持有的5亿4408万5171股股票及1亿8184万1209单位凭单，需耗资2亿4312万607令吉。

翻看何人可往年业绩，2015年的业绩表现最佳，净利为2118万1000令吉，2016财政年盈利虽跌，但仍有1815万令吉净利入袋。

直到2017财政年，旗下两家工厂不符合食品良好生产规范（cGMP）及药物品质系统最新规定，被当局吊销生产执照，制药业务即时停摆。受此消息惊吓，加上分析员喊卖，该股一度深跌至24仙，业绩也由盈转亏，全年净损112万2000令吉。

所幸的是，上述工厂已在5月份重获卫生部执照，恢复生产，预估可从11月公布截至2017年9月30日止的首季业绩反映出来。

一般相信，该公司将可逐步恢复当年勇，惟大股东却提出了下市计划，以致小股东陷入被动的劣势，而依上周五收盘价36仙、成交量600多万股看，小股东的接受度是“不愠不火”，除了无奈还是无奈。

文章来源：
星洲日报‧投资致富‧投资茶室‧文：谢汪潮‧2017.10.15

http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1691609/谢汪潮．何人可全购合理？

KUALA LUMPUR: When Hovid Bhd’s two manufacturing licences were revoked by the pharmaceutical services division of the health ministry on Jan 9 over compliance issues, some investors panicked, dumping their shares even at a low of 24 sen on the next day after the announcement.

The stock on Jan 10 opened at 25 sen — a sharp discount to the previous day’s closing of 34.5 sen, evident of irrational panic selling.

Hovid’s two production licences were reinstated in March and May separately. Subsequently, its share price regained most lost ground.

Against such a background, its controlling shareholder David Ho Sue San found an interested party, Fajar Astoria Sdn Bhd, a private equity firm, to partner with him for a privatisation exercise. Last week, Ho together with Fajar Astoria made a voluntary takeover offer of 38 sen per share and 20 sen per warrant to buy all the shares not owned by them in the pharmaceutical company.

Upon successful completion of the offer, Ho intends to consolidate his interest in the shares and warrants in the name of Fajar Astoria in exchange for a proportionate shareholding in either Fajar Astoria or its holding company, TAEL Astoria Investments Ltd. Currently, Ho holds a 33.72% stake in Hovid, while the partners acting in concert with him, including his wife East Jacqueline Judith and his siblings, have a collective 0.34% stake in the company.

The price is 10% higher than the last trading price before the suspension of its two manufacturing licences. According to its announcement to Bursa Malaysia, the offer price represents an 18.87% premium to its one-year volume weighted average price of 32 sen.

Now, for minority shareholders who were unfazed by the suspension of production in January and have held onto their shares, should they take up the takeover offer to exit at this point of time?

For the financial year ended June 30, 2017 (FY17), Hovid reported a net loss of RM1.53 million, from a net profit of RM17.9 million in FY16. Revenue for FY17 came in 10% lower at RM169.93 million from RM189.03 million in FY16.

The net loss showed that the suspension of the two manufacturing licences made a big dent in Hovid’s earnings — something that management had forewarned earlier. Hovid also encountered labour shortage problems that resulted in a low capacity utilisation rate of about 70%.

CIMB Research, in its quarterly review on Sept 4, cut its earnings forecasts for FY18 and FY19 to account for lower production volume and further delays in Hovid’s Chemor plant extension. CIMB anticipated RM14.6 million, or 1.7 sen per share for FY18. Based on last Friday’s closing price of 36 sen, Hovid shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-earnings ratio (PER) of 21.18 times, which is relatively higher than its peers. Pharmaniaga Bhd is trading at a forward PER of 17.66 times and YSP Southeast Asia Holding Bhd 15.53 times.

Looking at peer comparisons, the takeover offer seems worth considering based on the earnings forecast of 1.7 sen. But it may be worth noting that the company posted earnings per share of 2.24 sen for FY16.

There is a wild card that minority shareholders should not neglect — the new capacity which has been delayed. The extension of capacity is expected to come on stream by year end, according to a fund manager.

According to CIMB, the Chemor plant extension could raise Hovid’s existing tablet and capsule capacity by 70% (from the original capacity). But this will happen gradually.

The new capacity will translate into stronger earnings growth in future for Hovid when things are falling in place. This may be why Fajar Astoria is keen on pouring in money to take Hovid private — a deal that will cost them about RM243.1 million.

Hovid’s production facilities include the 20-acre (8.09ha) Chemor plant with softgel packing, effervescent dosage and oral solid dosage facilities, while its three-acre Ipoh plant, where its headquarters are in, produces softgel encapsulation, oral liquid, penicillin products and its heritage Ho Yan Hor herbal tea.

Aside from the manufacturing plants, Hovid has a research and development centre in Penang which is dedicated to bioequivalence studies.

With a market capitalisation of RM295 million, which is less than US$85 million, Hovid does appear to be an attractive merger and acquisition (M&A) target for foreign pharmaceutical giants that are looking for capacity expansion in this part of the world. In fact, CIMB said that it would turn more positive on Hovid upon a stronger-than-expected recovery in sales volume and earlier delivery of the extension of its Chemor plant.

Will minority shareholders wait further for the new capacity to ride on the earnings growth or cash out now at 38 sen per share?

today lot of buy pressure 0.360...

@syndicates,

According to my RHB investment banker, surrender do not need to fill up form. No need to do anything.

对的 correcto. deducted what he currently holding in hand, and to collect 90% of what is correctly in market/public.

offer last 21 days base on announcement, they have 21 days to collect 90%

Here is what i understand from RHB investment banker:

1) If they manage to buy back 90% shares, they will proceed to privatize, and those who did not sell, will automatic surrender at 0.38 (*at offered price).

2) If they did not reach 90%, they can’t not privatize, then back to 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: They abandoned the idea of privatization, and everything back to normal, price will determine by market forces
Scenario 2: They offer 2nd Price (*higher than 0.38)

If you sell now, it will be at market price.

its a conditional 'voluntary' take over offer, not mandatory, right? if they can not reach 90%, they might give 2nd offer, or you surrender at 0.38 at their offer price. no other way.

Hold until end date. They offer price is 0.38. If you don't sell, even if they privatise it, you still surrender at 0.38; that is the purchase price. If you sell now, its lower than 0.38. So might as well hold. nothing to lose.

I did say, when it moves, it is because Mah is collecting and expanding his shares ownership... then he will stop and let it down before he comes back again...you should be able to collect it at even cheaper price in coming weeks... then wait before it goes up again....

I don thin it will up so fast, institution won goreng so fast because they have not absorb enuf share, all these while Mr Mah is the only one absorbing it at 0.100. if you trust him, 0.100 is a good entry point, else just wait until he is resting, price will fall back.... Look at the announcement, every time when someone is heavily absorbing 0.100, his name pop up after a while in the announcement...

just now got so many Q at 0.095, now lesser dy..vol is going down again.. its Sanichi trend ... then will go up again...

it will drop till 0.085- 0.090 in coming few days...

hmm...Don think it will have any material impact. I think the news is about the acquisition on SG poultry ...

Financial Result out soon, 50% sales on export, strong dollar and lower Raw MAt should lift profitability...

And he won buy anything above 0.100, he came in periodically to make sure he always got it at the price he wants...then rest for it to come down n come in again...collecting it...so guess won be so soon....for this counter to play uP...my assumption...FYI, this Mr Mah also in Asiapac counter.. n icon..

Its a misperception, yesterday rally could be Mr Mah eating up the share again at 0.100..its already happen a few times... same cycle.. look back to announcement n trace back to the chart... don't get trap... trade cautiously...

Waiting for it to drop.... before entry..

SEe if they need more money to buy ship .

Hmmm .... it will go down .....and wait for another 3 months..

SHould fallback to where it started

0.145 is good lo... keep in freezer la...

wah... I m waiting ...0.140...fast fast...

0.145...

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/01/10/Big-presence-in-small-caps-Only-time-will-tell-whether-PMBs-investments-in-these-stocks-will-pay-off/?style=biz

Fair Price 0.145 - 0.150. ..MARA entry price, always as benchmark... :) but certainly it will go down further... beware.

Its time to buy n keep freezer... :)

:) beware my friend.... the over burnt is still hot and smell... have not recover as yet... :)

I will go in some more when it touches 0.125

I think will go down to 0.145
I just went in sikit 10 lots at 0.150. wait for it to go down... today limit up limit down cause many ppl trap unless all buang ...*thinking

it depends whether the 'big boss' behind need money or not ... if they need money / fund, they wil drive it freaking high...then market buyer perception kicks in drive it higher...and some big shark take opportunity to let go ... so price drop out of sudden...(*Sharp drop! you don even get a chance to let go.."

Guyz, sorry, but think of it, conversion of warrant to share, and think of the psychological impact...from Market Buyer...

I smell burning now... And with the 3 announcement on new listing, it total up to about 256mil shares... current market capital at 126mil, with additional 256 mil coming into market, price will drop....at least half from current market price... I will rest from this counter and come in only after CNY... go focus sanichi better...

Guyz, seriously? The only hope is for it to rally before CNY, after CNY, market will certainly down in big way as correction...also not forgeting Ringgit is still weak and oil is still at low price....

Lastly, if it is good, why is their own director keep disposing their share at the back....why dont they keep it if the price is believed will move upward... right?

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1870913

MARA disposing?

Director throwing shares... fuck up lo...

No momentum....

O_O!!

Has been pretty quiet for long long time.. i am still holding it ...hope it will go up soon... MI bought in at 0.100

always 0.80..

0.060 just keep coming up... wonder why so many 0.06...

Seem like another quiet day...

i tot it will shoot up , but not moving ...

Bidang Ladenda disposing share...something is not right.... And also their financial result suppose to release end or mid next month... Something is not right.... And insider knows but we don't... Damn it...

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/11/13/Chong-buys-bigger-stake-in-Protasco-Vicechairman-pays-RM25mil-for-128-million-shares/?style=biz

today TPY is disposing his share again i think... but at the same time to control the price...

Ooi and TPYdispose nexgram share to buy Patoasco i think..but TPY is still the major S=holder

Chong acquiring share....maybe to prevent TPY from buying more of it..I think TPY will act soon on protasco....

Look at protasco announcement....