@ chashao yes It is below LTA (long term average is not simple whole years average) but currently Pakse water level is currently at 3.44 meter vs around 0.8 meter during the dry season.

During 1st week June while pakse water level was around 1.8 meter, DS capacity factor was around 92%. Now Pakse water level is around 3.4 meter sure the capacity factor will be at high side of 90.

Pakse is the upstream of Don Sahong

Don Sahong achieved 1000 GW output on 20/7, and 4 Turbines runing almost full capacity as raining season started.

7月20日，运行维护检修公司老挝东萨宏水电站年度发电量突破10亿度，为完成年度发电目标任务奠定了坚实基础。

目前老挝处于雨季，东萨宏水电站来水量较充沛，全站四台机组已基本保持满负荷运行。老挝东萨宏水电站，位于老挝湄公河流域占巴塞省境内，总装机容量260兆瓦，是目前全亚洲单装机容量最大的灯泡贯流式电站，现有两条230千伏输电线路。为确保全站设备安全、稳定、经济、有效的运营，东萨宏水电站运维项目部实施以下工作计划部署：一是运维项目部在雨季来临前圆满完成了对全站机组的C级检修工作，提前制定了“防洪度汛方案”以及一系列应急预案，并组织开展“防洪度汛应急演练”；二是提前对水工建筑物和上、下游河道进行排查，消除安全隐患；三是运维项目部组织全体运行班组进行了“全厂失电，机组黑启动”模拟操作比赛，更好地应对老挝电网和柬埔寨电网的不稳定性；四是对全体人员进行全厂设备知识培训，加深一线员工对所有运行设备的熟悉程度

http://10j.powerchina.cn/art/2020/7/23/art_8790_831385.html

Maybank just upgraded the TP from $6.50 to $7.50

@pjseow I can't post the link here, not too sure why? I can email you the PDF file if you want?

After RHB gave MFCB a valuation of $8.58, Public Investment Bank follow with the upgrade to $7.47 from $6.74.

Good news is the fifth turbine is confirmed and the work shall start by 2 half of the year. (the tender of the project just completed recently)

Current power plant running rate is 92%, and expected to lift up to 94/95% by 2nd half of the year.
09/06/2020 10:58 AM

EFF added more than 10 millions shares, currently holding 14+ millions shares (as at the latest annual report released today)

Maybank upgraded TP to $6.5 !

Full year earning estimated to 66 cents per share

@Jeffreyboy I don't have a link, I only got a picture file on the latest updated list

MFCB just been added in to MSCI small cap indexes

Is a PDF file can't share it here

Maybank just upgraded TP to $6.10 from $5.50

Full transmission power (195MW) to Cambodia started

http://annx.asianews.network/content/laos-begins-transmission-195mw-electricity-cambodia-111890

The power transmission line between Loas (Don Sahong) & Cambodia (Stung Treng) is completed. COD should be soon

https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50677525/laos-links-195mw-power-to-cambodia

Personally I think the testing output of 85 MW is mainly due to the current transmission cable limitation, as stated on the last quarterly report, they only can transmit max 85 MW until the new transmission cable is ready, which is expected to be ready by end of December 2019.

Cambodia to import 200MW from Don Sahong start from next year.

The spokesperson also stated the transmission line is almost complete and should be ready by early next month.

Cambodia is facing power shortages.

https://m.phnompenhpost.com/business/kingdom-import-200mw-lao-hydropower-plant

Public Investment Bank raise TP to $5.71

@ 般若金刚 I was reading the same report years ago, and I personally asked the management about the estimated output. In fact one of the person in charge gave me the detail explanation, why the power generation output on DSH can achieve such a high rate.

Anyway, let keep the fingers cross, is the outcome will be matching what they had estimated.

Noted with thanks

That I m not too sure but the assumption of Average 5 millions kilowatts of output per day is based on management feedback.

@ lcwin, the assumption is based on feedback from the management.

First class average hydro power plant output efficiency is around 90%, and personally I think 80% is about right. Anyway I might be wrong.

I expect Public Investment Bank to come out their Analysts Report soon, expect with an upgrade TP of $0.30-$0.50 !

I guess that is the normal practice of Investment Bank when come to PE, as for MFCB the hydro power plant is not yet 100% complete. Besides the estimated earning is just a projection, so they normally will give low PE for that, however once the hydro power plant is up & running , and the earning is actually match the projection, I am sure that they will raise the PE.

For reference, Malakof current PE is stand around 14.

Maybank just upgraded the 12 months TP to $5 from $4.35.

@ linjie tax free period (duration 5 years) only will start applicable once the operation is officially start (which per schedule is 1/1/2020)

Public Investment Bank estimated the sales of testing power will generate around USD5-10 millions, but I m rather be conservative, I will take USD 5 millions as estimation.

Assume USD 5 millions as revenue :

Miscellaneous Cost 5%
Loas Income Tax : 24%

MFCB 80%

Net income will be : USD 2.89 millions (around RM11.85 millions, EPS around 3 cents)

If you refer to Sino Hydro website update, as at 19/6 the first turbine already went through the first level test & the capability of power generation already ready. I guess after 2 months of preparation the sales of test power should be started or will be started soon.

Anyway hope some sort of announcements will be made soon.

Interest rate cut benefits is rather minimum, every 0.25 basis point cut will reduce Interest exp by USD400K, but still a positive thing.

Please kindly refer to page 6, SOP valuation is stated clearly there.

Whereas undervalue or not, is all depend on whether Don Shahong project can deliver the earning as projected.

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/st88k/3069_MFCB/pt/PUBLIC%20BANK/3069_MFCB_PUBLIC%20BANK_2019-08-23_BUY_5.04_Mega%20First%20Corporation%20-%20Waiting%20for%20Energy%20Test_-2045857203.pdf

@ utopia86, 80% is used because there will be no hydro power plant can run up to 100% capacity due to various reason, besides during the dry season for Mekong river, the running rate for Don Shahong can be as low as 77% (according to management). Public Investment Bank estimation is based on 80%, so to be conservative I used 80% too.

@limcs you can refer to the analysis report from both the Public Investment Bank & Maybank, at the end of the report they clearly stated the Sum Of Parts Valuation for the TP.

Investment bank used different methods to do valuations ! They used EV + Discounted cash flow

Yes, the total 475 millions shares used for calculation already take into account of 20 millions treasury shares held.

Personally I think even with the addition 5th turbine, EPS of 90 cents is unlikely to achieve.

Estimated of earning based on 4 turbines (assume 80% of the capacity)

Revenue : 5 millions kilowatts x 0.0615 x 365days = $112,237,500

Operation cost : 5% of Revenue

Government Royalties : 5% of Revenue

Estimated Interest Exp : $8.5 mils

Depreciation: $20 mils

Estimated net profit : $72,513,750

MFCB 80% : $58.01 mils (RM234.94 mils @ USD 4.05 rate)

Resources & Property Division : RM16 mils (net of tax)

Estimated fully diluted EPS : 52.8 cents (assume 475 millions shares after take in account warrant & ESOS)

If the 5th turbine come into picture, personally I think the most it can generated another 12-14 cents EPS per year.

Anyway it is just my personal estimation, I might be wrong.

The first turbine wet test already started since 12th of June, and I think that 2 & 3 turbines also already in wet test status. Whereas selling power generated from wet test will only started by end of this month (September).

The 4th Turbine in final stage of installation.


7月14日，机电安装分局老挝东萨宏水电站项目4号机转子成功吊装就位。为后续工期目标的实现提供了强有力的保障。
东萨宏水电站位于老挝Champasak省，电站采用堤坝式开发，左岸岸边布置开敞式开关站，引水发电系统布置在河中，包含有四台灯泡贯流式机组，电站装机容量4×65兆瓦。转子总重为230吨，直径约8.25米，高约2.3米，吊装时需从水平翻转至垂直状态，具有较高的技术难度。项目部精心组织，充分利用了前3台转子的吊装经验，科学谋划，从吊具准备、吊装工具挂装到转子转运、转子翻转、转子吊入机坑、调整就位等工序一气呵成，得到了业主、监理的一致肯定。

Eastspring is Prudential Investment Fund

Eastspring bought in lately

Below news is extracted from Sinohydro official website. It stated the first turbine is ready for power generation (ie wet test for the first turbine is about to start).

Good news.

当地时间6月19日，老挝政府副总理宋赛•西潘敦来到中国电建承建的老挝东萨宏水电站项目部视察，老挝能矿部部长卡玛尼·因提拉、占巴塞省政府官员等20余人陪同。
宋赛•西潘敦一行察看了项目蓄水情况和厂房施工现场，听取了项目进展情况汇报，并就关心的事宜与项目管理人员进行了交流。他高度评价了东萨宏项目所取得的建设成就，充分肯定了项目在进度、形象面貌和安全文明施工等方面所做的努力，赞赏项目对当地社会发展带来的积极影响，希望项目部再接再厉，发挥示范标杆作用，为老挝发展做出更多的贡献。
老挝东萨宏水电站项目位于老挝南部占巴塞省湄公河干流上，地处老挝和柬埔寨边境，总装机260MW(4×65MW)，配备目前单机容量亚洲最大、世界第二大的灯泡贯流式机组。自2015年10月15日开工以来，项目部与各方积极配合，确保各项工作高效推进，先后提前实现多项节点目标，赢得了包括老挝总理和柬埔寨首相在内的社会各界一致好评。目前，首台机组已具备发电条件，全体员工正在为实现项目圆满收官而努力。

Yes, but that will only be happened in 2 years time after the commencement of the power plant.

For those who attended the AGM, you would have know the development, good or bad depends on how you interpret it.

1) The project will not have any delay, the commencement date still will be at 1/1/2020 (wet testing will start somewhere around July or August), However the first 3-6 months of operation, it might only running at the 50-60% of its capacity, this is because the cable from Bann Hat power stations link to Cambodia border will not ready in time (Loas EDL only signed the MOU with Cambodia side on 31/3/2019).
Currently MFCB will responsible to do the 120km cable at the cost of USD20 mils (MFCB will sub the whole project to China company, currently in the process of open tender). In return MFCB will charge the usage of the cable based on transmission rate (according to the boss, ROI for this project will be around 12% /year)

Bad news is FY2020 you won’t have the full fledged earning (or possible of further delay of the 120km cable project).
Good news is Cambodia is hungry for power. The MOU signed is Cambodia will take up as much as 75% (3 out of 4 turbines) of the total power generated, which means once the cable is ready then the sales of power will be guaranteed for the next few years.

2) As Cambodia come to picture, MFCB is planning to put up another turbine (the 5th one with 65 megawatts) within 2 years after the commencement of the power plant. The location already been identified.

Good or Bad ?? All depend on how you look at it.

The 1.2 billion peso included Petron Fuel International Sdn Bhd which operate around 310 Petron petrol stations.

Their net profit is around RM25-30 millions each quarter, hence PetronM estimate net earning should be around RM66-70 millions.

Ha ha ha......

So funny !!

Once Don Shahong project start operation, 50+ cents of EPS & around 25 cents of dividend is within the reach.

Finally some good news

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5888449

what a piece of good news

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/announcements/view/28879385

Buy & keep, the company got huge potential !

1) Don Shahong Project is ahead of schedule around 3 months, and the first turbine is expected to be fired up by May 2019 (the testing will take another 2-3 weeks), after that every 2 months there will be another extra turbine come to operation. In short by 2019 June there will be some power concession income start coming in. Best still because the power concession contract only start by 1/1/2020, during this period there will be no depreciation & amortization expenses.

2) Resources division is foreseeing a double digit growth for the next few years, steady income.

3) Coconut plantation (Healthcare division) won’t able to see any solid income by 2022, however progressive planting is taking place at the moment.

Short term you won’t see any big surprises, but gradually the value will be slowly unlock.

Thanks, actually I only holding a bit of Petronm shares, personally I think Petronm long term fundamentals still intact and capable management team, if u are willing to wait then it should progress well in the future.

I see some good developments in the annual report, however depression of refinery margin will drag the share price short term.

This was reported on 2015, and on my last visit to Petronm refinery on August 2017, I had confirmed with the person in charge again, Petronm Port Dickson refinery is already upgraded to Euro 4 standard on 2015 4th Qtr upgrade exercise.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/10/02/petron-to-upgrade-port-dickson-refinery/

In actual fact, Petronm & Petronas Refinery already Euro 4 ready, at the moment they still produce Euro 2 standard as the regulation still allow it.

Whatever stockraider stated above is not accurate!

@ Halite, Petrol Chemical is the keyword. This is a very lucrative business. High entry barrier due to big Capex.