Topglove Capacity

2019 - 64 billion
2020 - 84.2 billion
2021 - 111 billion (96 billion today)
2024 - 205 billion

Just capacity alone, it will be growing by almost 320% from pre-Covid, not taking into consideration of huge cash pile, higher margin corresponding to higher percentage of nitrile glove production, new technology, improved energy efficiency, improved production efficiency (i.e. IOT, IR4.0), etc.

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/what-israel-has-learned-from-its-battle-with-covid-19-661042

Siman Tov: I believe we will see more and more critically ill kids. I thought at the beginning that the vaccine would be the end game. It is a game changer, but it’s not the end game. It’s possible we will see variants that are more vaccine resistant, so we must develop other tools in our toolboxes. The Israeli strategy toward COVID cannot just be the vaccination project. It should be modifying the educational system as well.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Vaccination is not the end game!

Israel will achieve its target 95% vaccination of the eligible age group in March while daily cases are still in the thousands.

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/what-israel-has-learned-from-its-battle-with-covid-19-661042

Siman Tov: I believe we will see more and more critically ill kids. I thought at the beginning that the vaccine would be the end game. It is a game changer, but it’s not the end game. It’s possible we will see variants that are more vaccine resistant, so we must develop other tools in our toolboxes. The Israeli strategy toward COVID cannot just be the vaccination project. It should be modifying the educational system as well.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Vaccination is not the end game!

Israel will achieve its target 95% vaccination of the eligible age group in March while daily cases are still in the thousands.

Like the famous economist John Maynard Keynes said, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” Invest in accordance to your strategy, capital allocation and personality. We still believe in fundamental and value investing. Anything that is more undervalue out there?

<<The thinker>> RSS is max 4%. What kind of power shorties have? Why don't you explain how can they do that? and how can it go PN17?

Of course the market maker and sentiment are at play now. That is when investor buy into a good fundamental stock that is greatly undervalued. How do you think Warren Buffet invest?

Anyway, it is clear that you have bigger mouth than brain. So much being a thinker.

<<The thinker>> Use your brain and think. RSS is max 4%. Even no limit also cannot go PN17. Bear in mind these are KLCI30 stocks. The only way it can go PN17 if the business is not doing well or going downhill i.e. having financial difficulties. That is not the case for glove as the glove industry is generally growing at 10% per annum and likely between 15% to 20% this year onwards till 2025.

All the BIG 4 are going for massive expansion in coming years.

If I can bet with you in person, I give you a payout ratio of 1 : 1,000,000,000 whether they can go PN17. That is for every dollar that you bet, I give you RM1,000,000,000 payout if they can go PN17. Please please your bet to proof your point. No brain thinker!

If you want to make money, learn to buy at dip. Devise your own strategy/portfolio and capital allocation as well as understanding your personality (i.e. short term vs long term).

Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy --- Warren Buffet.

1> Production will increase to around 68B in 2023 compared to 27B sales in 2019 or pre-Covid, and eventually 95B in 2027. At present, production is around 44B. That is almost 2.5X in 2023 and 4X in 2027.

If Harta was traded at RM5 before Covid, thus going by capacity alone, it should be at least RM12.50 to RM13.00 in short-medium term and RM20.00+ in medium-long term, but that is not all, you need to weight other factors that will further amplify its value :-

-----------------------------------------------

2> Demand is more than supply by a quantum of 120billion for at least 2 years. Demand increase by 15% - 20% y-o-y. Higher and higher earning in coming quarters. If you think RM1B is a lot, wait till you see what is installed in coming quarters. Maybe RM2B or more.

3> RM4.5B to RM5B CAPEX for NGC1.5 and NCG2.0 may be covered by super-cycle earning, thus no debt or borrowing cost.

4> IR4.0 automation to reduce 20% labor and Energy efficient system (including Solar) to bring down the cost further, thus improve margin. Labor and fuel (or energy) are two biggest cost factor besides material i.e. latex/butadine.

5> Extend OBM model beyond India, China and Australia.

6> Proprietary Anti-Microbial Glove (AMG) is due to be approved by FDA and EN.

7> ESG, leader among its peers. ESG is gaining importance in stock valuation.

Based on the above, judge for yourself if the share price shall go up further (significantly) and whether it is sustainable or not? Est. RM7B+ PAT this calender year (not fiscal year), single digit 6 months FPE onwards, 5% dividend.

<<The thinker>> No way shorties can make your company go pn17 if your company has a strong fundamental and making good profit continuously. When it's way too cheap, it is better to buy back the share or take the company private. Shorties will get themselves burn and bearing too much risk trying to press down too much.

The only way it can go pn17 if the business is not doing well or going downhill. That is not the case for glove as the glove industry is generally growing at 10% per annum and likely between 15% to 20% this year onwards till 2025.

<Pgraduate123> It depends on your investment strategy and risk appetite. If you opt for long term, you can share the wealth and growth as well. Their wealth do not grow in a short time likewise Warren Buffet. If you have better investment strategy and getting far more better return with minimum risk, please go ahead. Presumably you are not the successful investor type and always hopping around instead of maintaining a healthy balance portfolio (diversifying in a few key industries).

We are also a vendor to the glove industries and benefitted from the business aspect as well, and also for years to come since the industry is on uptrend. Of course we are also a vendor to several other industries as well but as for glove, there is a foreseeable capacity expansion plan for next few years thus we are all gear up to ride the wave.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Pgraduate123 Chasebros..... Kuan family made tons, so what? Top4 all taiko made tons. But does retail shareholders enjoy tons of it? No loh....their wealth no connection to retailers...with miserly dividend given....

Buy tech stocks up every day... Bye bye
16/02/2021 9:02 PM

https://www.insage.com.my/Upload/Docs/HARTA/Hartalega%20Annual%20Report%202019.pdf#view=Full&pagemode=bookmarks

Based on 2019 Report, they have 36 billion installed capacity and around 85% utilization and an annual sales of > 28 billion (nitrile + latex).

Plant No.6 had been fully commissioned in 2020. And Plant No.7 is under commissioning, which is expected to contribute 2.7 billion to 43.9 billion in total towards next quarter.

NGC 1.5 ((4 plants) with 19bn capacity will start commissioning in Q4 CY2021. NGC1.5 is adjacent to existing NGC 1.0 in Sepang thus can share many resources thus relatively faster ramp-up.

NGC 2.0 (7 plants) in Banting with 32 bn capacity will start commissioning in Q1 CY2022.

By 2027, Harta would have 95.1 billion capacity.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2021/02/11/billionaires-making-boatloads-of-money-from-once-cheap-medical-gloves/?sh=1c08ab4e661c

"New virus variants and the slow vaccination rollout have almost certainly extended the life of the Covid-19 pandemic into 2022. That means the need for gloves is set to continue, and the glove tycoons will keep cashing in as demand remains high."

Guess who is the richest among all glove bosses? Kuan Kam Hon & family at US$5B (Hartalega) and Hartalega ASP is merely 50% or less compared to its peers today, thus will see more bombastic performance in coming quarters.

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2021/02/13/dont-be-fooled-by-falling-numbers-say-medical-groups/

Although the number of new Covid-19 cases have fallen to under 4,000 from the more than 5,000 peak a little over a week ago, health experts have warned Malaysians not to be complacent.

They say the fall in numbers comes in conjunction with reduced testing.

Data obtained from CodeBlue shows that from Feb 3-8, the number of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests conducted daily reduced from 67,264 to 32,536.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2021/02/09/s.-korean-boy-investor-with-43pc-gains-is-new-retail-trading-icon/1948393?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR05nZqpqi_2xgc10VKQetTXspRKrRw0bOLXDyZaoVp6HOzUgVgsM9LEqHg#Echobox=1612863514

“Rather than short-term focused day trading, I want to keep my investment for 10 to 20 years with a long-term perspective, hopefully to maximise my returns.”

Even a 12 years old boy understands value investing.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2021/02/09/s.-korean-boy-investor-with-43pc-gains-is-new-retail-trading-icon/1948393?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR05nZqpqi_2xgc10VKQetTXspRKrRw0bOLXDyZaoVp6HOzUgVgsM9LEqHg#Echobox=1612863514

“Rather than short-term focused day trading, I want to keep my investment for 10 to 20 years with a long-term perspective, hopefully to maximise my returns.”

Even a 12-year old boy also understands value-investing.

Well sell glove stock? It is like asking Warren Buffet to sell Coca-Cola or Geiko. Further, TG or Harta has been seeing CAGR of 20%+ on Profit/Revenue over last 20 years. And, the glove industry is on uptrend and will be trending upward at least till 2025.

And if there is ever any serious dip or market crash, glove stock will hold steadily while those "hopeful" stock will shatter.

With the Covid in place, apart from acute shortage of no less than 200 billion annually while stockpile are depleted which need to be restored in time to come and due to structural step-up in healthcare system and hygiene awareness, the glove usage had shot up thus would require 3 to 4 years to fill the gap.

Frost & Sullivan estimated the annual demand may grow from 500 billion to around 1,200 to 1,300 billion by 2025. Though that may have been overblown, but I just do not see how can this additional 500 to 700 billion gloves will be filled in 4 to 5 years time.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2021-02-03-story-h154...

Really don't get the point people are blurting rubbish in this forum. Even without Covid, the annual organic growth is around 15%. That was why all the BIG 4 already layout the expansion plan for a span of 3 to 7 years.

With the Covid in place, apart from acute shortage of no less than 200 billion annually while stockpile are depleted which need to be restored in time to come and due to structural step-up in healthcare system and hygiene awareness, the glove usage had shot up thus would require 3 to 4 years to fill the gap.

Frost & Sullivan estimated the annual demand may grow from 500 billion to around 1,200 to 1,300 billion by 2025. Though that may have been overblown, but I just do not see how can this additional 500 to 700 billion gloves will be filled in 4 to 5 years time.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2021-02-03-story-h1540301984-Frost_Sullivan_Report_Koon_Yew_Yin.jsp

Also, people need to understand the sales and marketing plan and distribution system. Company like Harta has established system and long-term customer based in place which will deter new entry that will not be able to provide the quality product, desired quantity, product mix (nitrile is not just nitrile and they are several types of nitrile) and superior customer service.

By the way, Harta cost of production is the lowest thus enjoying the highest margin among all glove manufacturers.

If there is any disappointment, that would be you yourself who has little understanding about glove industry and especially Harta. Be proud of the Bursa Top 10 or Top 20 companies, serving 190 countries and provide employment to thousands of Malaysians. Is there anything else about you or your company that we should be proud of?

P/S : Harta has been in business since 1988 and they have been through many business cycles thus they would know better than bystanders. Further, they are the pioneer in many glove technology like the lightest 32g glove, the first soft and stretchy nitrile (mimicking the latex glove characteristic) and now the anti-microbial glove (AMG).

1> Production will increase to around 68B in 2023 compared to 27B in 2019or pre-Covid, and eventually 95B in 2027. At present, production is around 44B. That is almost 2.5X in 2023 and 4X in 2027.

If Harta was traded at RM5 before Covid, thus going by capacity alone, it should be at least RM12.50 to RM13.00 in short-medium term and RM20.00+ in medium-long term, but that is not all, you need to weight other factors that will further amplify its value :-

-----------------------------------------------

2> Demand is more than supply by a quantum of 120billion for at least 2 years. Demand increase by 15% - 20% y-o-y. Higher and higher earning in coming quarters. If you think RM1B is a lot, wait till you see what is installed in coming quarters. Maybe RM2B or more.

3> RM4.5B to RM5B CAPEX for NGC1.5 and NCG2.0 may be covered by super-cycle earning, thus no debt or borrowing cost.

4> IR4.0 automation to reduce 20% labor and Energy efficient system (including Solar) to bring down the cost further, thus improve margin. Labor and fuel (or energy) are two biggest cost factor besides material i.e. latex/butadine.

5> Extend OBM model beyond India, China and Australia.

6> Proprietary Anti-Microbial Glove (AMG) is due to be approved by FDA and EN.

7> ESG, leader among its peers. ESG is gaining importance in stock valuation.

Based on the above, judge for yourself if the share price shall go up further (significantly) and whether it is sustainable or not? Est. RM7B+ PAT this calender year (not fiscal year), single digit 6 months FPE onwards, 5% dividend.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/rhb-research-institute-expects-supermax-distribute-special-dividend-2hfy21

Wow! special dividend next quarter. This is definitely a big plus. Anyone has the latest Investor's Briefing?

Net cash already RM3.41billion which translate to RM1.32 per share, it can easily appreciate to RM8B to RM9B towards end of CY21 which is equivalent to around RM3.50. Going at this rate for next 3 years, yummilicious. Need to keep investing to grow, grow and grow as the demand will increase from 600B to 1,200B+ in 2025.

And, Supermax is going to be listed in SGX as well. Sweet!

No of shares : 2.721 billion

FYQ12021 (Ju1 30 - Sep 30 2020) PAT : RM810M
FYQ22021 (Oct 1 - Dec 31 2020) PAT : RM1,070M*
FYQ32021 (Jan 1 - Mar 31 2021) PAT : RM1,600M, assuming +30% following TG guideline
FYQ42021 (Apr 1 - Jun 30 2021) PAT : RM1,600M

* The Profit After Tax (PAT) could have touched RM1,300M if not for additional RM270M "Other Cost and Expenses" which is likely associated with one time donation to Malaysia government, foreign worker remediation fee and Covid-19 related expenses.

Total PAT for FY2021 is 5,080M, thereby Earning Per Share (EPS) is 5.080B / 2721 B = 1.87.

NOTE : The above calculation disregarding additional 10.25 billion gloves which will be added to existing production capacity progressively till end of CY2021, thereby the suggested number above is very likely far below actual. Existing capacity is 26.175, thus 10.25 billion would translate to approx +40% capacity. The production capacity will reach 46.4 billion by end of CY2022.

At RM6.80, the Forward P/E is 6.80 / 1.87 = 3.6, which is ridiculously low. If following CIMB-CGS suggested 15 P/E, then the fair value is 15 x 1.87 = (RM28.05). Just hold for another two quarters for handsome share appreciation, even if 50% discounted.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Supermax is unlike HengYuan or Dayang as one is refinery while the other is mid-stream which is dependent on crack spread as well as contract from upstream users respectively. Also, the profit did not hold nor live up to expectation. Glove industry as a whole is on the uptrend, and according to Frost and Sullivan, the CAGR is around 15.9% annually till 2025, and the total capacity will increase from present 600 bilion pieces to 1,200+ billion pcs in 2025. Due to Covid (thus structural step up in heathcare system and hygiene) and healthy organic growth, the demand outweigh the supply by a great margin thus the glove ASP shall remain elevated for the next 3 to 4 years.

Supermax production capacity will grow about 220% from pre-Covid to end of CY22. And, with the elevated ASP as well as venturing into Beyond mask and overseas, thus the prospect is plentiful.

Anyone can share your analysis why foreign shareholding decline from 24.4% in Jan 1 2018 to 12.87% in Dec 31 2020? And how would that impact Tenaga in the short to mid term?

https://www.tnb.com.my/assets/demands/Foreign_Shareholding_-_Dec_18.pdf

https://www.tnb.com.my/assets/demands/Foreign_Shareholding_-_31st_Dec20.pdf

<<Ken>> Further to that, Maybank should be setting aside higher impairment this coming quarter, as they did not do that, comparing to CIMB. Whilst, TG is expecting to see a much higher PAT in this coming quarter, thus exaggerating the difference in value, indirectly suggesting TG is greatly undervalue.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Ken Last quarter maybank earn 1.9billion,total share issued 11.4billion;TG earn 2.3billion,total share issued 8.2billion.Market cap for Maybank is 90billion; Market cap for TG is 55billion。Can you see the different?TG is extremely under value. Market cap for TG should be more than Maybank

(CNN) February 3, 2021. A mutation that could allow Covid-19 to escape antibody protection has now been found in samples of a rapidly spreading strain in the UK, according to a report Monday by Public Health England.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/02/health/variant-mutation-e484k/index.html


The mutation, called E484K, was already part of the genetic signature of variants linked to South Africa and Brazil.

Experts say that aggressive testing, adhering to Covid-19 guidelines and rapidly rolling out vaccines are more important than ever in light of these spreading variants.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Vaccine will not eliminate Covid-19 but hopefully in due time when Scientist understands Covid better. Worst case may be like the flu-vaccine which may require update and re-inoculation every year but then again, there may be vaccine nationalism or vaccine is reserved for the wealthy country since the production is unable to meet the world demand in a short time.

Mutation is inevitable and you wouldn't be safe till the world is adequately vaccinated because a new variant could easily set foot in your country and trigger another unstoppable wave. There would be structural step up in the healthcare system and hygiene.

Demand for glove surpass the availability by a great margin in the next 3 to 4 years, as shared by Hartalega Mgmt and Healthcare Industry experts.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/02/health/variant-mutation-e484k/index.html

(CNN) February 3, 2021. A mutation that could allow Covid-19 to escape antibody protection has now been found in samples of a rapidly spreading strain in the UK, according to a report Monday by Public Health England.

The mutation, called E484K, was already part of the genetic signature of variants linked to South Africa and Brazil.

Experts say that aggressive testing, adhering to Covid-19 guidelines and rapidly rolling out vaccines are more important than ever in light of these spreading variants.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Vaccine will not eliminate Covid-19 but hopefully in due time when Scientist understands Covid better. Worst case may be like the flu-vaccine which may require update and re-inoculation every year but then again, there may be vaccine nationalism or vaccine is reserved for the wealthy country since the production is unable to meet the world demand in a short time.

Mutation is inevitable and you wouldn't be safe till the world is adequately vaccinated because a new variant could easily set foot in your country and trigger another unstoppable wave. There would be structural step up in the healthcare system and hygiene. Demand for glove surpass the availability by a great margin in the next 3 to 4 years.

On the other hand, choose your vaccine wisely, that may offer some form of protection minus the side-effects be it short term or long term. Meanwhile, take care fellow Malaysians as the virus is raging and no of deaths is on the rise.

As time passes, the degree of separation between us and Covid-19 patient is narrowing, meaning if you are not already being infected, you may know of someone was being infected (1st degree) or knowing someone who knows someone was infected (2nd degree). Personally, I had one 1st degree contact and several 2nd degree contacts contracted Covid-19 to-date.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/02/health/variant-mutation-e484k/index.html

(CNN) February 3, 2021. A mutation that could allow Covid-19 to escape antibody protection has now been found in samples of a rapidly spreading strain in the UK, according to a report Monday by Public Health England.

The mutation, called E484K, was already part of the genetic signature of variants linked to South Africa and Brazil.

Experts say that aggressive testing, adhering to Covid-19 guidelines and rapidly rolling out vaccines are more important than ever in light of these spreading variants.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Vaccine will not eliminate Covid-19 but hopefully in due time when Scientist understands Covid better. Worst case may be like the flu-vaccine which may require update and re-inoculation every year but then again, there may be vaccine nationalism or vaccine is reserved for the wealthy country since the production is unable to meet the world demand in a short time.

Mutation is inevitable and you wouldn't be safe till the world is adequately vaccinated because a new variant could easily set foot in your country and trigger another unstoppable wave. There would be structural step up in the healthcare system and hygiene. Demand for glove surpass the availability by a great margin in the next 3 to 4 years.

On the other hand, choose your vaccine wisely, that may offer some form of protection minus the side-effects be it short term or long term. Meanwhile, take care fellow Malaysians as the virus is raging and no of deaths is on the rise.

As time passes, the degree of separation between us and Covid-19 patient is narrowing, meaning if you are not already being infected, you may know of someone was being infected (1st degree) or knowing someone who knows someone was infected (2nd degree). Personally, I had one 1st degree contact and several 2nd degree contacts contracted Covid-19 to-date.

Kenanga Research Feb 02 2021, Revised Target Price RM9.05 to RM7.80.

There are a few reservations on this research. By the way, we need to understand that Supermax C90 warrant issued by Kenanga is expiring on Apr 26 2021 with a strike value of RM2.250, 2 : 1 ratio.

First, the analyst is basing the TP estimation for CY22 (31 Dec 2022) while the figure shown in the table is for FY22E (June 30 2022).

Second, analyst admit that there is a lack of info on the ASP guidance and had assumed only a few percentages appreciation from USD65 to USD70 (FY21) and USD45 to USD50 (FY22). Maybe they should use a reference figure from its peers instead of plucking the figure from the sky. Take Topglove for example which hinted +30% in next quarter. Topglove had recently shared the latex glove also gap up in tandem with nitrile glove.

Third, the analyst conveniently omit the production will increase from 26.2B at present to 36.4B (CY21) and finally 48.4B (CY22). Only suggesting the final production figure will reach 48B (CY22). So, in the table shown, the estimated turnover for FY21 is not bad though on the low side but the estimated turnover for FY22 is totally out because it was still based on 26.2B capacity instead of 36.4B capacity (which could potentially see an additional +39% turnover/revenue/profit).

Fourth, the analyst (Raymond Choo Ping Khoon) express pessimism over vaccine roll-out and its overseas venture into US and UK as though he knows the glove industry better than the mgmt, and as if he is the in the advisor board for WHO/CDC. Maybe should stick to facts instead of own unsolicited opinion, just to justify the downgrade of TP.

So, the more realistic picture is + 30% (ASP), + 39% CY21 (Capacity) likewise PBT and PAT. As such the target price (TP) shall be revised to RM7.80 x 1.3 x 1.39 = RM13.90 (CY22).

By the way, if using his assumption of 12X EPS, the TP for FY21 would be 147.6 (Kenanga assumed EPS, though on the low side) x 12 = RM17.71

What if the ASP continue to rise and plateau throughout CY22 instead of declining? thus assumed USD50 ASP may be USD100 in actual fact.

What if the US/UK venture turn out to be successful?

NOTE : These days, the analysts are issuing malicious and erroneous researches just to catch the negative headline and instill fear in the market. Or that has had been the case all the while to manipulate the warrants, RSS, etc.? Just that the retailers are more aware, alert and knowledgeable?

Kenanga Research Feb 02 2021, Revised Target Price RM9.05 to RM7.80.

I have a few reservations on this research. By the way, we need to understand that Supermax C90 warrant issued by Kenanga is expiring on Apr 26 2021 with a strike value of RM2.250, 2 : 1 ratio.

First, the analyst is basing the TP estimation for CY22 (31 Dec 2022) while the figure shown in the table is for FY22E (June 30 2022).

Second, analyst admit that there is a lack of info on the ASP guidance and had assumed only a few percentages appreciation from USD65 to USD70 (FY21) and USD45 to USD50 (FY22). Maybe they should use a reference figure from its peers instead of plucking the figure from the sky. Take Topglove for example which hinted +30% in next quarter. Topglove had recently shared the latex glove also gap up in tandem with nitrile glove.

Third, the analyst conveniently omit the production will increase from 21.75B at present to 36.4B (CY21) and finally 48.4B (CY22). Only suggesting the final production figure will reach 48B (CY22). So, in the table shown, the estimated turnover for FY21 is not bad though on the low side but the estimated turnover for FY22 is totally out because it was still based on 21.75B capacity instead of 36.4B capacity (which could potentially see an additional +67% turnover/revenue/profit).

Fourth, the analyst (Raymond Choo Ping Khoon) express pessimism over vaccine roll-out and its overseas venture into US and UK as though he knows the glove industry better than the mgmt, and as if he is the in the advisor board for WHO/CDC. Maybe should stick to facts instead of own unsolicited opinion, just to justify the downgrade of TP.

So, the more realistic picture is + 30% (ASP), + 67% CY21 (Capacity) likewise PBT and PAT. As such the target price (TP) shall be revised to RM7.80 x 1.3 x 1.67 = RM16.90 (CY22).

By the way, if using his assumption of 12X EPS, the TP for FY21 would be 147.6 (Kenanga assumed EPS, though on the low side) x 12 = RM17.71

What if the ASP continue to rise and plateau throughout CY22 instead of declining? thus assumed USD50 ASP may be USD100 in actual fact.

What if the US/UK venture turn out to be successful?

NOTE : These days, the analysts are issuing malicious and erroneous researches just to catch the negative headline and instill fear in the market. Or that has had been the case all the while to manipulate the warrants, RSS, etc.? Just that the retailers are more aware, alert and knowledgeable?

It is not only RSS but Manipulation, Mkt Sentiment, Mkt Setup (that was believed already in place since Nov 2020), etc.

All glove makers will continue to roll-in record breaking profit one quarter after another (with money coming from abroad i.e. export to 190 countries), and keep hiring people to the tune of thousands. That is good to contribute to Malaysia economy, otherwise, even more people will be jobless.

The big boys PE or forward PE are in the single digit region, and the funds will return to this yummilicious counter(s) in due time.

Vaccine will allow more businesses to open but also sustaining the shortage due to structural heightened hygiene awareness. Let's hope that we can fly again and observe the SOP closely together. The world will be sufficiently vaccinated only in no earlier than 2024, and hopefully the vaccine is good against all variants.

It's really entertaining to watch all the actions here.

Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffet) has compounded 20.3% annually between 1965 to 2017 by pick a few stocks and "sit-on-your-ass". No one can predict the market neither the movement.

TopGlove has a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 21.4% for Revenue and 22.7% for Profit After Tax (PAT) over the past 19 years.

I would be extremely happy TopGlove can continue with the PAT CAGR of 22.7% for the next 30 years, need not increase by leaps and bounds, though that would come as a bonus.

---------------------------------------------------------------

"The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient" - Warren Buffet

---------------------------------------------------------------

<<chamlo>> This is an excerpt from theedge article shared by gemfinder which read as follows :-

After a holiday surge in American cases, officials at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention are calling the top, though that’s likely because of behavioral changes, and still not widespread impact from the vaccine. New Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and emergency-department visits are starting to decline, said Jay Butler, the agency’s deputy director for infectious diseases.

“While these trends are encouraging, I want to stress that the numbers nationally are still high, and they’re as high as they’ve been at any point in the pandemic up to this point,” he said at a briefing Friday hosted by the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

........................................................... It’s still possible for the virus to roar back, particularly if variants that are emerging in South Africa and elsewhere take hold. Studies suggest vaccines, particularly the newer shots from Johnson & Johnson and Novavax Inc., are less potent against that strain and at least one other.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

In short, expert suggests it is likely because of behavioral changes, and still not widespread impact from the vaccine.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

chamlo Is vaccine effective? Why new cases and deaths worldwide keep dropping?
02/02/2021 7:39 AM

<gemfinder> Thank you for the article, an excerpt is as follows :-

After a holiday surge in American cases, officials at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention are calling the top, though that’s likely because of behavioral changes, and still not widespread impact from the vaccine. New Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and emergency-department visits are starting to decline, said Jay Butler, the agency’s deputy director for infectious diseases.

“While these trends are encouraging, I want to stress that the numbers nationally are still high, and they’re as high as they’ve been at any point in the pandemic up to this point,” he said at a briefing Friday hosted by the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

........................................................... It’s still possible for the virus to roar back, particularly if variants that are emerging in South Africa and elsewhere take hold. Studies suggest vaccines, particularly the newer shots from Johnson & Johnson and Novavax Inc., are less potent against that strain and at least one other.

----------------------------------------------------------

Of course we do hope the vaccine works but it will not eradicate the virus for now and near future. Significant population cannot or will not take the vaccine including those below 16-18 years old, and that may be 30% to 40% of the population. Even if the cases declined or reduced by 90%, that is still above first wave. Even if Malaysia cases reduced by 98%, it is still in 3 digits region while our aim is to bring it down to 1 digit. Structural change in hygiene practices are in place. Biden already allocated US$30B for PPE. Glove industry is enjoying 15.9% CAGR organic growth + pandemic volume which is why they are expanding leaps and bounds, TG alone is hiring additional 9,000 Malaysians.

Behavioral changes as suggested above is good which also translate to structural change in hygiene practices. Please note that NZ and Australia manage to control the outbreak with control which is more effective than the vaccine itself.

----------------------------------------------------------

gemfinder https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/us-hits-milestone-pandemic-more...
02/02/2021 8:04 AM

<<Mabel>> I'm jealous but glad to hear that at the same time. Oink! Oink!
----------------------------------------------------------------

Mabel I'm still waiting for RM 4 TG..

Hands very itchy to top up my holding of the World No 1 Gloves...

Thank you Tan Sri for the fantastic Dividend and Dinner tonight..

Meow Meow Meow Meow
01/02/2021 11:41 PM

If you wish to pump, not here lah. Only a handful people sparring and amusing each other. Probably can be counted by one hand at this hour. Gotta go where the crowd is lah. Top Glove Discussion group has garnered over 45k members in 4 days and at this moment close to 6k members online.

Go there to influence them lah, otherwise setup your Discussion Group.

There are also several Discussion Group, Glove Union, BursaBets, Hartalega, etc. To know whether you are good or not, go and try to run your discussion group.

------------------------------------------------------------------

LoliPap a lot of tan sri dog here.. wishing to pump TG price... cut loss before too late on TG.. bearish coming soon
01/02/2021 11:37 PM

For the anti-glove proponents, please set up your Discussion Group lah, otherwise join Top Glove Discussion Group and voice your opinion. Even at this hour, there are still 5k to 6k members online at Top Glove Discussion Group, unlike over here only a handful, and I do mean literally handful which can be counted by no more than 2 hands, sparring and amusing each other.

Biden has had just allocated US$30B for PPE (under Covid19 Rescue Plan) as opposed to US$3B being set aside in Dec 2020. US will go out for frenzy PPE shopping and drive up the PPE price.

https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2021/01/president-biden-proposes-massive-covid19-rescue-plan

Even Biden is supporting PPE, and why not, we Malaysians?

The point is to make the shorties lose, and Gamestop has achieved its objective. Shorties lost over US$20billion and Melvin has lost 53% of its fund. However, Topglov is unlike Gamestop which is a fading business.

Glove industry will enjoy 15.9% CAGR or organic growth till 2025 (as shared by Frost and Sullivan) even without Covid. And, with more than 200 billion glove shortage globally, the ASP will remain high for at least 2 to 3 years till the gap is closed.

Biden has had just allocated US$30B for PPE (under Covid19 Rescue Plan) as opposed to US$3B being set aside in Dec 2020. US will go out for frenzy PPE shopping and drive up the PPE price.

https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2021/01/president-biden-proposes-massive-covid19-rescue-plan

Even Biden is supporting PPE, and why not, we Malaysians?

Shorties in Malaysia has only 1% left to short while they have already used up 3% and sitting on an est. massive RM250MM losses, and we are waiting for them to go all out, hopefully tomorrow. The early the better. Please tell them to strike the remaining 1% tomorrow otherwise "pussy".

---------------------------------------------------------------------

RunFirstSupportRSS Gamestop Drop like waterfall !!
SHORTIES SURE WIN !!
tomorrow All glove bleeding!!
01/02/2021 11:17 PM

Pity those who pitted against the Glove companies for not having any real followers in real-life. Talking to oneself only. Can you recommend any Anti-Glove Discussion Group?

FUN FACT

Whether US can really vaccinate its population within this year (excluding below 16- 18 years old, which account for more than 20% of the population), heightened structural hygiene practices will be in place till the pandemic is declared over by WHO. That will likely not happen till 2024 onwards when broad world population were vaccinated.

Biden has allocated US$30B for PPE as opposed only US$3B being set aside in last Dec.

https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2021/01/president-biden-proposes-massive-covid19-rescue-plan.

What is more worrying is a new strain will escape the vaccine induced antibody and set-off the third wave. The strain being identified in Africa is seemed to pose reinfection risk and ALL vaccine trials conducted in Africa had shown significantly lower efficacy and in Novavax case, that was 49% efficacy (against 89% trial in UK).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-finds-south-african-coronavirus-strain-poses-reinfection-risks-11611941546

In short, glove manufacturer will enjoy average 15.9% CAGR organic growth + higher ASP in view of the persisting global shortage that may take at least 2 - 3 years to close the gap.

<<Honesty>> Majority already moved to Telegram platform. Only a few of us left sparring and amusing each other here. It's more fun over here because they are too many members in Telegram and hundreds of comments flowing through every minute.

Do you feel restless? Keep pounding on the keyboard but cannot build-up followers despite so much postings compared to "Top Glove Investors Discussion" that manage to garner over 45k members in 4 days?

----------------------------------------------------------------

Honesty Proud to get the attention of others here even with my sub standard comment. LOL
Thanks for the sub standard responder~~
01/02/2021 9:22 PM

<<PunTatBerSiul>> Why don't you say Shortist has shorted 240M to 250M shares at est. average RM5.70, thus they are losing RM240M to RM250M. The person in-charge of such manipulation is dreaming of how to cover such loses, and they may suffer between RM500M to RM1B when the share price appreciate further beyond their cut-loss threshold. Someone is going to lose his/her job and trying hard to manipulate. The whale is going to be hunted down by the human like dogs, and whale is going to be endangered.

They fail to push down to RM3.50 and they have only 1% ammunition left. If using 3% ammunition also cannot push down to RM5.00, how far do you think they can push down further? They need to buy back the share thus pushing the share higher in due time. Quarterly performance review is coming, the whale is "sweating" on how to cover losses. Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock.

----------------------------------------------------------------

PunTatBerSiul Facts
1) It dropped from RM 29.xx ( all time high)
2) After bonus issue, dropped to RM10.xx
3) Bonus issue mean nothing to those who bought above RM25, still licking wound.
4) Still struggling to reach bonus issue high (RM10.xx)

Whales are having a gallant time.
They showed their mettle in the beginning of the year by dropping to RM5.20s
Yet "bilis" retailers are congregating and dreams of being whale.

Real whales are "laughing".
01/02/2021 9:16 PM

<<Honesty>> Spore already started vaccination, Topglove in SGX went up. Why vaccine only come on Feb 26?

So pitiful, government has no money, many businesses are not doing well or on the verge of collapsing. Despite cases remain at all time high while MCO2.0 is not effective, government can't do much and cannot afford to tighten the MCO. Recovery will take a long.......................... time (if the business can survive this brutal moment). Nevertheless, Topglove will continue to donate to government and bigger sum is foreseeable comes Budget 2021/2022 with the massive earning and continue into 2022.

How we are afraid Short-ist are not fighting back. Please fire the remaining 1% tomorrow, otherwise, they are such a pussy.

As far as the thousands Topglove supporter are concerned in multiple social platform, they are getting ready to defend and push.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Honesty No Mco
Pfizer Vaccine on Feb 26
Supermax Qr out = Big 4 red
Profit Taking & Dumping
Shortie Fightback
01/02/2021 8:43 PM

<Vincent Tang> Supermax incur additional RM270M on "Other Cost & Expenses" as compared to average previous quarters, which is probably relating to one-off RM75M donation to Malaysia government, foreign workers remediation fees, Covid-19 expenses, etc. Otherwise, the margin could have been higher.

Please note that Supermax already mentioned in their interim financial report that the best quarter has yet to come, meaning even significantly higher PAT and profit margin in coming quarter(s).

------------------------------------------------------------------

VincentTang Supermx profit margin start drop from 58.4%(Q121) to 53%(Q221). Be careful.

https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=7...
01/02/2021 4:57 PM

<<TigerWoods>> Lucky guy! You can sleep well.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

TigerWoods @ChaseBros

Thank you for the calculation! thank god i bought my 67 lots at average of 5.60. Good luck to all holders here.
01/02/2021 5:19 PM

<Vincent Tang> Supermax incur additional RM270M on "Other Cost & Expenses" as compared to average previous quarters, which is probably relating to one-off RM75M donation to Malaysia government, foreign workers remediation fees, Covid-19 expenses, etc. Otherwise, the margin could have been higher.

Please note that Supermax already mentioned in their interim financial report that the best quarter has yet to come, meaning even significantly higher PAT and profit margin.

------------------------------------------------------------------

VincentTang Supermx profit margin start drop from 58.4%(Q121) to 53%(Q221). Better sell. Be careful.

https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=7...
01/02/2021 5:02 PM

<<TigerWoods>> I use pessimistic figure from JPM which suggest RM11,674M PAT for FY21, though in actual may be closer to RM13,000M. Topglove prevailing ASP is RM150/1k pieces as witnessed from a sample Quotation in the Telegram group.

No of shares is 8,202M

Thereby, Earning Per Share (EPS) is 11,674/8,202 = 1.42

Dividend = 70% x RM1.42 x 100 = RM99.40 per lot (1 lot = 100 shares). Please be advised 70% is only declared from next quarter onwards, prior to this is 50%, thus the actual dividend is marginally less than the calculation shown herein, but that could be made-up by higher PAT instead of RM11,674M.

At RM6.74 today, the forward P/E is 6.74/1.42 = 4.7 which is ridiculously low. Base on historical P/E average of 20, the fair value is RM28.40. Even if it is discounted by 50%, that would translate to RM14.20.

NOTE : JPM deliberately gave a low estimation of RM1.686B for FY22 PAT, which is of course ridiculous. TG allocation already booked till early calendar year 2022, thus first quarter of FY22 (or Sep 1 to Nov 30 2021) alone will see RM3B to RM4B.

Investment is about emotion or psychology. So you need to understand your personality and invest in accordance to your personality, strategy and capital allocation. But be prepared for the volatility as there are forces trying to manipulate the market to shake-off weak investors.

If you need more facts, please click my ID and click Comment to see my past comments which include some Fun Fact about the Glove Industry as a whole, which is trending upward regardless of Covid.

Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock, Short-ist already shorted 240 to 250 million shares. They need to buy back.....

Tick-tock, tick-tock.

P/S : Most investors are already in Telegram forum, only left a few here sparring trying to amuse each other. In due time, this forum has to reinvent themselves in order to attract members. The platform is old already.

Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock. Quarter performance review coming. Short-ist sitting on couple hundred million losses. Short-ist already used 75% bullets. Short-ist promised the boss can drive the price down to RM3.50, but it went up instead.

Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock. Short-ist is now working overtime to prepare manipulation strategy while preparing a lengthy risk report which may see them losing RM500M to RM1B when having to repossess the share at much much higher price.

Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock, Short-ist is praying the share lender will not force it to return the share immediately.

Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock, Short-ist has to revise the report in due time with much higher PAT instead of its pathetically low estimated PAT. For instance, JPM estimated TG and Harta PAT for FY22 is RM1.6B+. Harta FY22 starts in Apr 1 2021 and will probably see RM2B in its first quarter, thus one quarter already more than JPM estimate for the entire FY22.

Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock, I can hold and wait for the blockbuster since no blockbuster this CNY.

We are acting on FACT while JPM is acting on MANIPULATION, what is there to be afraid of? How long can the local and foreign funds denied the fair value of the glove stocks?

The short-ist is sitting on huge losses while "kena screwed" by bosses every day as well as Risk department and probably reprimanded by HQ now that it has caught the global attention.

With the fees to be paid on share borrowing on periodical basis as well as potential dividend compensation, while having limited approx 1% shorting opportunity, the short-ist cannot sleep well every night. Once the share price break the share appreciation threshold, the short-ist has to cut loss and buy back the 240M to 250M shares fervently at higher price. Quarterly review is coming, tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock and what are the short-ist going to do to cover its losses? They may fight hard with more manipulation but will give up eventually.

We only answer to ourselves and need not to show monthly or quarterly performance, so we can hold, wait to see the appropriate share appreciation while enjoying the dividend.

FUN FACT

The efficacy of the vaccine varies from one geographical area to another and may be due to different virus strain. From the data collected by vaccine makers (i.e. Novavax, J&J, Sinopharm, etc) which have conducted trials in different countries, the efficacy varied greatly with some seeing as low as 49% in Africa against 89% in UK e.g. Novavax. Another question is how long will the antibody last? And, when the new strain will strike as well as how fast Covid is mutating?

Manaus, Brazil which was being praised for achieving herd immunity by natural infection is seeing a surge in hospitalization after a lapse of 7 months. Reinfection is taking place and some individual was seen infected by 2 different strain at the same time.

https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2021/01/23/a-brazilian-city-thought-it-had-herd-immunity-it-was-wrong

Though we hope to see an everlasting high efficiency vaccine, heightened hygiene will be in place till the pandemic is declared over by WHO. That will likely not happen till 2024 onwards when broad population were vaccinated. For now, there'll be structural change in the hygiene practices in all countries (be it whether they have achieve herd immunity or not) unless they lockdown its own economy and close the door to the world. In short, glove manufacturer will enjoy average 15.9% CAGR organic growth + higher ASP in view of the persisting global shortage that may take at least 2 - 3 years to close the gap.