Mr Koon, I have gone through FGV's FFB & CPO production after reading your posting. The actual FFB produced by FGV is 5,138,078 Tons for 2013 and based on 20% extraction rate, the CPO produced is only 1,027,615 Tons and not 3,186,000 Tons mentioned in your posting. The 3,186,000 Tons CPO that you used in your profit forecast actually is inclusive of outside CPO purchased by FGV for their refineries business. Their 4Q13 gross profit is only RM51.84m and if not for their fair value gains on Land Lease Agreement liability of RM346m FGV's 2013 EPS is only 14.5C. A point to note is that FGV's plantation are ageing and much of their palms needs replanting so this may impact their future revenue. I think there are better plantations companies than FGV if one is going to venture into this sector.

Beware all XDL investors!. Controlling stakeholder already sold off all their warrants!

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1573877

I dare not recommend anyone to buy cos can only kena firing. What do I gain? ask yourself. Invest at your own risk using yr logical thinking weighing all the facts resented. Always protect yr money first before thinking of profit. One cannot be damn sure unless you are insider because there are many questions unanswered and it is bothering me also as a CSL shareholder.

kiasu_trader : U should ask wahaha126 if u are a punter. He is yr sifu ?

wah ! wahaha126, betul kah?. Your mah jai going to miss u a lot oh!

After Lead Champion has sold down their major stake, the shares are now held by majority Malaysian who like to punt CSL for money. From the trading pattern that I observed over the months, punters don't hold on the shares for long term but sell at any upward movements to realise some profit be it 0.5c or 1c = 2.5% and 5% profit which is pretty good for short period of time at minimal risk.

From logical reasoning, if major players were to accumulate shares then, the trading pattern will change to a more sustained breakout pattern eventually leading to a bullish trend over a period of time.
From my point of view, this pattern will continue for sometime between a price range of 20c to 23c until the div announcement in May.

So far my reading of CSL is correct till now i.e. price did not dip below 19c when 4Q results is out. Yet to see TP of 26C after div announcement in late May.

All the bloggers can continue with your tirade till the cows come home. Malaysians are now owning all the major shares. See if I am right?.

hahaha .. infamous wahaha126! leading star in CSL really got reputation.

datuk=shareprofit, if not twins or same genes.

The 100 share buyback today is child play. CF gone nuts! Sometimes I can't blame people for running down CSL management. It is things like this that makes people lose faith in him Management skill - wonder if he had any really!. Can't wait for next AGM to fire him properly over the poor management of co. resources and reputation.

CSL investors seems to react positively to 4Q results even without div announcement. TP 26c at least on div announcement. 3C div announcement in May. IF no div. I too will disappear from this blog cos CF cannot be trusted anymore. Only time will tell. There must be a lot of negative speculative news last few days and that explains the heavy selling pressure down to 20C. Punters making money again esp those who dare.

just a brotherly advice. That's all. Not ill intention.

correction : the 3 months interest should be RMB11.4m for RMB1.6b FD and not RMB45.6m.

datuk : You talk sense except that sometimes you claims are a bit wild. You want to bring down a company it needs special skill and risk of being sued. Just try to present your claims in public and see what will happen. Even bloggers can be traced and prosecuted we need to be careful and be discreet in our remarks.

Regarding the RMB1.6b FD placed with the Agri Bank of China. As per the screenshot taken the FD form Agri Bank China is min. 3 months @ 2.85%/annum. The recent SGM was held on 10JAN14. So by end Mar. there must be RMB45.6m FD interest in the 1Q results less tax if any. If it is not there then all shareholders can join together to form a minority shareholders watchdog group and take up a class action lawsuit against the DOB and the auditors for fraud.
All the Q & A at recent SGM were recorded by the co. secretary and there are enough witness to testify against the co. and the auditors including FKT Grant Thornton is not spared.
CF got to be very careful on this matter. If he is not truthful it will get him into a lot of problems.

Agri Bank screenshot:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/28639210/Screenshot%202014-02-26%2023.31.49.png

datuk : agree. Date extended to 28FEB14. It is not abt value investing or that CSL is the cheapest stock in the world. It is about risk n reward when one makes a decision to buy at this price range.

Datuk : 4Q results is out today but the price is still 20C. It is not abt pride but the ability to read the trend correctly. You are wrong in your forecast of 16C. I forecasted that the earliest div announcement date is by 4Q results date and latest by end May. Why are the doomsayers harping on this?. I even posted a comment that there will be no div announcement so soon.

Regarding the interest on FD. The minimum FD in China is 3mths. Not like the banks here where you can place FD on monthly basis. So the truth will be out by 1Q results i.e. end May again. If there is no interest income from the RMB1.6B in the 1Q results then RMB1.6b cash FD tak ada!. So watch out in end May for 2 big announcements.

In this forum, we all got to share info. and learn from each other so that all can gain a heart of wisdom. Be careful with your investment because if you read too much of this blog you may get blogged down sometimes and get swayed left and right and end up confused, not knowing the truth from falsehood.

Those who have sold will sing a bearish tune and suddenly change to a bullish tune like wahaha126. Everyone know you by now the infamous "in-out-in-out" guy. datuk is bent on getting everyone to clear their stock of CSL.

I believe the div will be 3C based on 16.6c EPS. 16.6C * 0.20 * 0.90 = 3C. There is a 10% div tax for foreign owned China Enterprise. Wait for May announcement. If no div. all shareholders bring rotten eggs to AGM for bombardment!

I guess wahaha126 will buyback at 20.5c to 21c. So those who want to sell be quick! Doomsayers predict CSL going to 1C!

datuk = shareprofit ???

All doomsayers, if CSL is crab, pl sell off all your shares now before it is too late. Then wahaha126 will happily pick it up from all of you cheap!

wahaha126 : Is shareprofit one of your disciples? Must be same gang lah! All waiting to buy cheap. Not like datuk who has abandon chinaSexylady now and don't want to play with her anymore.

edkfc : They won't give the list. Needs the directors approval according to them. CF has already sold down their shares and that explains the high share liquidity compared to all other China stocks. CSL share price appreciation depends on the div. announcement. The minutes of the SGM Q & A session were taken by the company secretary and should be good enough as an official document to confirm CF's affirmation of the div. policy - better than sound recording!.

I just wonder how old is this uncle?!! maybe 80yrs old

Gambling is a game of chance. Investment in shares is not about throwing a coin and bet on the outcome.. head or tail.

Getting into CSL is a bit tricky. There are many questions unanswered. Currently it looks like the shares are being tossed around from 1 hand to another. Wahaha126 buys low and sells higher and pocket the differential. datuk has quit this game and vowed not to play again. In big vol. there is money to make. If everyone do that then it needs more people to enter the game and eventually the price will move very slowly upwards. In the absence of positive news like div. payments then I reckon the share price will yoyo with someone dumping and someone picking it up.

There is so much overhanging shares after CF has pared down his major stake and that explains the daily high vol. and its liquidity. There is no point talking abt the same old issues again and again. All investments are risky esp. china stocks. Even Xingquan is not paying div. now. and I am a bit concerned abt that co. esp. the share price is that high around RM1 when compared to 21c for CSL.

CSL Investors just got to be patient and wait for div announcement by latest end May. I have read Koon Yew Yin's blog on XingQuan and can't say I agree with the chairman's explanation for not paying div. to shareholders.

His blog : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/46374.jsp

Next week the CSL results will be out. Datuk said the price will plunge to 16c. I said the price will not even dip below 19c. Who is correct in the forecast?. The 4Q result will be +ve and above 4C.

I said earlier that the div. announcement will come earliest during 4Q announcement and latest by end May. Judging from past div announcements of china stocks, I now feel it is unlikely that div. will be announced this early so CSL investors don't put too much hope on div. announcement so soon. Wait for end May announcement just 3wks before AGM date.

Div. payment is important to me. CF has agreed to pay and if he does not honour his words, then all should dump CSL and lari.

Datuk, 16C coming.... ???

ok datuk. CSL won't go down to 16Cts after 4Q results is out. If no div. announcement most likely it will be up and down at this level.
Down to 3Cts? By when?.

SandyLim, U should have read all those US stories 2 years ago so u won't have suffered much losses. Expensive investment lesson which everyone should try to avoid.

When highly speculative shares are being goring up ... speculators don't care abt fundamentals and negative news. All got short memories lah! when money comes starts comimg in. Just got to patiently wait for the breakout from the current consolidation phase. BE patient and just wait for the div announcement.

My forecast earlier - 26c TP after div announcement by earliest end FEB or latest end May. If one buys at 20c then a clean tax free profit of 30%. If I am wrong people going to sh.. me!

Does any doomsayer still think CSL is trash? and will dip to 16C? by 4Q result date?. Looks like only Datuk still hoping to buy at 16c.

Very strong buying at 21.5c today. Hope not another false start again.
For breakout need at least to hit above 23.5c.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/28639210/Screenshot%202014-02-12%2016.59.44.png

Today's buying volume looks good - see if got momentum to breakout next wk.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/28639210/Screenshot%202014-02-07%2020.33.43.png

datuk, I am not ignorant of all the facts. Just wait ... time will tell

Fireworks begins after div announcement.... watch out for the show!

come on ....!!!!

Why all the doomsayers dare not take up my challenge that CSL won't drop to 16C?. If all the doomsayers are so confident CSL is trash as what you all says then stand up and take my challenge once and for all. So that all the other investors can have some peace!

datuk : come on.... it is so obvious an error. 4Q results coming soon ... U will lose

トトロ : What is the purpose of your post? You can't short sell so you can't gain anything if CSL price drops. If it goes up your heart aches because you have sold and lost. AM I correct? Do let the "naïve" and the "Greenhorns" try their investment skill at CSL for 20c!

I just like to share one of my Excel file for CSL share transaction for past 2 months when it reached the end of downtrend :

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/28639210/4FEB14CSL%20share%20transactions.xlsx

The consolidation is taking a long time due to the sharp plunge in price. Is it over? You all decide and take the risk to invest. I have vested interest in CSL and so are all who own their shares. For those who has quit, it does not concern you at all now.

Warren Buffett, another well-known, but less fictional character has another quote along those lines:

Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

CF has already confirmed during the SGM and also during the Nanyang News interview that CSL is maintaining the div policy for 2013 financial year. If CSL is not profitable and if no money in the bank how to remit RMB out of China to pay div. ?. Under current PRC regulations, wholly owned Foreign Owned Enterprise may pay dividend only out of accumulated profits.

Kira : what if I am right?. Will all the doomsayers keep quiet and not be so negative abt CSL? It has some value at this price level after coming down from IPO price. I can't say for some china counters who don't have much fixed asset and are reporting losses. Fair right?

My bet with Datuk still on .. who will be the loser?

IF CSL drops to 16c .. I will disappear from this blog forever...
My forecast still stands. CSL won't drop below 19C until 4Q result is released. Div. 3.4c to be paid this year.

Be patient ... wait for dividend to be declared by latest May14 before the AGM in June for shareholders' approval. Earliest div announcement likely by end of FEB together with 4Q results announcement. Be positive....... until May.

Gong Xi Fa Cai! May all CSL stakeholders prosper in the year of the Horse!

China Stationery Limited is an investment Holding Co. incorporated in Bermuda and the company only conduct business through their 3 subsidiaries in mainland China.
Sakura products can be found on this magazine :
No retail sales - only agents and wholesalers.

http://www.hktdc.com/sourcing/manufacturers/emagazine/en/1X04OPDK/Sakura-Fujian-Packaging-Stationery-Co-Ltd.htm#

wah ! wahaha126 now CSL champion again! Don't sell so soon.... again.

On the contrary, all those who lost their pants, if they wear one, and has given up are the "greenhorns" and "naïve" to dive in when CSL a china chip is trending high!.

buy ... 20c cheap! less 3.4c div. only 16.6c! All the investors who bought 6.26m shares today all naïve ?!!. Greenhorns?!!

Labis MCA crony - mesti kalah! hahahaha..............

Labiscsl : cronies are insiders - want tips or not?

Pakatan versus BN ! see who wins come end Feb! only 1 month more!

wow ! This blog very hot now! Lots of mudslinging! Getting hotter by the day. Hope CSL also gets hotter!

2014 : U missed the 2nd post : I stick by it.

Posted by Gemlover > Jan 15, 2014 09:17 PM | Report Abuse X
By end FEB 14: I forecast 3.4c dividend for financial yr ending 2013. Price will stay 19c and above. TP 26c.


Posted by Gemlover
194 posts Posted by Gemlover > Jan 15, 2014 09:19 PM | Report Abuse X
Correction : I think the dividend won't be announced by FEB14. Only 4Q results will be out then. Dividend announcement should be in May14.