Yesterday and today at matching time - 350k buyer surfaced at 2.25

MSC is not having 3Q24 results briefing. They decided to do 2 times a year from now onwards. So no update on why smelting side is still not firing. The mining side is doing good. We will just have to depend on their next update in mid Feb 25 when the results come out to see if the smelter side is pulling its own weight. But the heavy selling from the ex date of the 7 sen dividend on 9th Oct 24 , when stock fell from 2.70 to 2.30 in 3 days, should have alerted us that someone was taking the view that 3Q24 results will disappoint.

Tin is 29,925.

Last year , MSC reported on Friday 17th Nov 23. This year probably on Friday 15th Nov 24

Somebody has been selling it down everyday . The dividend was 7 sen but it has fallen 40 sen from ex date on 9th Oct, with 30 sen of the drop coming on the 9th itself. Not sure what the reasons are but the share price could be tracking Tin which has recently dropped from 34k to 31k . The 3Q 24 results are round the corner , probably around the 9th of Nov. 3Q 24 should be better than 3Q 23 ($9 mil) and 2Q 24 ($17 mil ).

Today gone Ex for 7 sen dividend but stock has dropped much more than that🙄. Now doing 2.45 down 20 sen !! Low was 2.35 down 30 sen !!🙁

LMEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
Latest 34,070
+265 (+0.78%)

LMEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
Latest:33,925
+46 (+0.14%)

INSIDERS AND MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS BUYING STOCK IS A GOOD SIGN

NI NE CHAIRMAN CHEW GEK KHIM BOT 26,500 SH AT M$2.391

MSC ($2.40) - Announces an interim dividend of 7 sen. Ex on 9.10.24.
The interim dividend of 7.0 sen per share translates to a dividend payout of
RM29.4 million. This is 84% of the company's 1st Half24 earnings !! This is really telling us something. Very very few companies would pay out almost all their earnings as dividends UNLESS they are confident that going forward the earnings are going to be strong. In a silent way, they have telegraphed that they are confident that 2H24 earnings are finally going to be significantly better that 1H24 which was only $35 mil.

Tin US$32,295

CEO Datuk Yong's recent purchases clearly signal strong prospects ahead for MSC , starting with a resurging 3Q2024.

It was from mid May to I think mid July. They acquired 2 rotary furnaces to take over the smelting of intermediates when the main furnace was undergoing rebricking. The problem is that one of the 2 also broke down , hence the lower amount of smelted products. They have now acquired a 3rd Rotary furnace as a back up to the backup. Hopefully, in future the Rotary furnaces can seamlessly continue the smelting work when the main furnace is under maintenance. I think they are also trying to reduce the time taken to rebrick by sourcing for new materials. This should address the once a year rebricking issue.

Profit for 3Q2023 was only 12 mil. This is a low hanging fruit for MSC to gobble up !! 4Q2023 profit was even lower at 9 mil , so the next 6 months should see some sustained buying interest as these numbers will be easily overcome with better results hopefully at several multiples times the 3Q and 4Q 2023 numbers.

Mgt did not give any details on the value of the intermediates.

Smelting of intermediates going on. There was a deduction of 12 mil in 2Q results under Eliminations/Adjustments which will be added back in 3Q.

Con Call held this morning was generally positive with a stronger 2nd half ahead. Smelting ops back to normal after the rebricking exercise mid May to mid July , which shut down the furnace. Supply shortage of 3rd party ore for smelting also saw some easing. Smelting profits should rebound strongly in 2Half 2024. Tin prices sholud remain strong as demand outstrips supply globally.

MSC doing 2.43 !! Understand Conference Call 15th Aug.

MSC today closes lobang formed at $2.20 (08/03/2024) and $2.22 (11/03/2024) just when it started to blast off ahead of 1st Q 2024 earnings !!

Affin Hwang came out with a note saying earnings will come in between 20-25 mil for 2Q24. They maintain their Sell recommendation with an unchanged target price of $2.30. They think the mining side will do well but the smelter side will not as their tolling operations will be impacted by the export ban/constraints of tin from Myanmar and Indonesia.

All metals getting hammered. Tin is no exception ; now 29k level

Looks like MSC stock price is following Tin's price very closely 😏. Malacca Securities report mentioned that we are in a commodity upcycle , that should be positive for MSC. Also the US$ is in a gradual spiral downwards with Powell signalling US rate cuts looming in the horizon , and since commodity prices move inversely to the US$ movements, tin is poised for better days ahead. Stay tuned for more exciting updates as we keep an eagle eye for fund flows out of the US mkts to the deeply undervalued Emerging Mkt space.

If it clears 3.47 recent high , will head to close the gap at 3.89

Somebody makan 130k at 3.00 in one order !! Got committed bull entering the stock 😀

MSC had run sharply ahead of 1Q2024 results, which would not have been able to match the superb results of $36mil in 1Q2023. Tin prices in the 1Q2024 were subdued at 25k-26k oer ton. So those who sold into that powerful move did well as the results were only $18 mil profit for 1Q2024 ; 50% lower than 1Q2023 !! But since end March 2024, tin prices have skyrocketted to 32k-34k per ton, and now doing 33,300 per ton. Meanwhile the stock collapsed from 3.47 to 2.48 , a drop of $0.99 in one month !! So now is a good time to accumulate after a big fall in share prices and a sharp increase in tin prices for the 2nd Quarter 24 , to anticipate a good 2Q2024 result out early Aug 2024. The following insights were announced/revealed/noticed during the Conference Call shortly after the 1Q 2024 results :
1 Tin division profits will be higher from higher tin prices
2 Sale of slag will bring in maiden revenue from new source
3 Smelting of intermediates going on with earnest.
4 Smelting of in house tin will provide good revenues
5 Smelting of 3rd party local sourced tin also going on
6 Smelting of foreign imported tin (from Congo etc ) resumed providing smelting division with good business
7 The decommissioning of the Butterworth smelter will reduce MSC's overall costs by 30%. Sure to be a positive boost to the bottomline.
The 2Q2023 net profit was $28 mil.
I believe with all the positive catalysts mentioned above, the 2Q2024 net profit should be higher than 2Q2023.

MEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
LMEarrow
Latest:34,350
+984 (+2.95%)

MSC slowly creeping up . Now facing big seller at 3.10 !!

☝️ Uptrend forming after some consolidation. Looks like it’s targeting to clear the intra day high of US$36,000 and head to US$41,000 next target. ( 36k - 27k start of upmove = 9k. Add to breakout point - 32k . Draw a downtrend line from 36k high to 30k low to see where the breakout point is )

LMEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
LMEarrow
Latest:33,855
+489 (+1.47%)

Results out on Fri 24.05.24

In yesterday's Star article, UOB KH has forecasted full year earnings of M$165 mil to M$183 mil. Divided by 420 mil shares outstanding that comes to M$0.39 to M$0.43 EPS. So it currently trades at a forecasted PER of just 7.46X to 6.77X !!If these earnings do materialise, the company can upsize the dividends to say 20-25 sen , making the yield highly sought after by insurance companies, retirees and pte banking clients. The silver lining could be a sizeable bonus issue like 1: 1 to improve the liquidity in the stock and allow hedge funds, mutual funds , ETF managers, Commodity Funds SWFs, etc to come in and take out the selling from the retail shareholders who might decide to dump the bonus shares. Truly exciting times are ahead. But the shares need a re-rating from research houses to enjoy a higher valuation. At the moment only, UOB KH, Malacca Sec and Kenanga cover the stock. Hopefully more will discover this dividend rich gem.

Last week, there was one day when total kts traded at LME was 2,200 kts. Each kt is 5 tonnes. So total was 11,000 tonnes traded. Tin inventories at the LME have nearly halved this year to 3,670 tonnes. There is going to be a chronic shortage of tin going forward, as its not so easy to increase supply in a short period of time. I think , just like lithium prices from 2020 to 2022, which climbed 10X on soaring demand from EVs !! , tin is poised to break the all time high price of US$50,000 per tonne and go to a new high this year on multiple demand drivers ranging from new models of handphones, semiconductor chips, solar panels, electric batteries, high end automotive electronics, and 5G base stations !!

MSC should be M$3.85 😒

LME TIN US$34,000 !!!!
2022 TIN All Time High US$50,000
2022 MSC All Time High M$5.46
At US$34,000 MSC should be M$3.70
msc should be M$3.70 level

LMEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
Latest : 33,750 +975 (+2.97%)

LME Tin US$32,000.
When Tin hit US$50,000 IN Feb/March 2022 , MSC hit $5.46.
Today Tin is US$32,000 , so MSC should be at least M$3.48

LME Tin -US$30,490

LME select Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
HIGH 29,350

LME select Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
Latest:28,880

Tin US$28,615

LMEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
LMEarrow
Latest:28,430

Tin surges past US$27,300 . MSC is on the move, now 2.06/07 !!Results probably out this Friday 17th !!

Tin continues to climb to US$26,650.

Tin US$26,200

Tin creeping up to US$25,800

LMEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
Latest:US$24,850
-45 (-0.18%)

Yesterday at the close somebody put 100k to sell at 2.13 when the last trade done before matching period was 2.16. Dont know who is doing this, but this last second sell down has been going on for months !!

Tin futures back up to USD 24,770 per metric ton.

Results should be out on 17th Nov 2023. 3Q should be better than 2Q ; mining side should do well, with smelting side about 2Q levels as the smelter was still shut down in July. Mgt confidence in the outlook for tin going forward was reflected in their surprise interim dividend of 7 sen !! YOY comparison will be stark as last year 3Q was a loss of about 35mil !!