Blended ASP of USD48/k pcs which is -31% QoQ. TOPG expects ASP continue to fall by 8-10% MoM in the coming months and will only stabilize in early 2022. Expectation for FY22 ASP is ~USD25.5. If this is true dividend for year 2022 earning will be <10 cents per share compared to 65.1 cents for FY21. Expected Net Profit less than RM1.5 billion for next year compared to FY21 of RM7.87 billion.

Endless downgrades from the IBs due to weaker than expected Q4 results as a result of continuous declining ASP.

MaybankIB Downgrade from RM3.06 to RM1.68 (-43%) on 20th September 2021
RHBIB Neutral with target price of RM3.10. on 20th September 2021.

Fact is the more ramp up in production there is and the lower ASPs continue to go then share price will follow the downtrend...

So I think issues on fire insurance are quite negligible to LPIs earnings for at least the near/mid term. What is more pressing is that Tan Sri owns ~44% of LPI and at age 91 nobody or at least very few know what will happen in the future to these controlling shares. Who will take over the 44% ownership of LPI and how will LPI management and structure/culture be at that time....

unicornbird Okay so LPI Gross Written Premiums for Fire insurance in 2020 accounts for 41% of total premiums but accounts for the lions share of underwriting surplus at ~64%. I don't really benchmark between the various insurance providers but it seems that fire insurance only amounts to about RM100+ or less for a typical KL condo per year. This is based on amounts I have been paying for my KL condo properties which non seem to use LPI as the master fire insurance provider.

Not sure how price sensitive customers are as typically condo management committee will be the ones who chooses which insurance provider to use and get a master fire insurance title for the whole condo building. Public Bank bundling mortgage with fire insurance will go on unless government makes a law against this type of practice but in the meantime LPI will keep benefiting as Public Bank customers will keep using the LPI insurance.

Latest Q4 net profit at RM608 million decline by 70.2%. Compared to Q3 of RM2.04 billion net profit… still think gloves are great long term investment ?

Most of the time if the share keeps falling like it is now means that the news is already out and based on price movement it is showing negative SIR outcome. Insiders already making their moves... also could be further forced selling by major shareholders. KO share....poor shareholders...

Fire insurance is mandatory every single year to be paid by every single condo owner. How often does a condo unit ever burn down? Worthwhile reading below.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/02/18/fire-insurance-review-would-not-be-overly-detrimental-to-lpi

LPI is one of those companies you can just buy and forget about, and just keep collecting dividends far higher than your bank FD rate. The best listed insurance company in Malaysia, always profitable rain or shine and consistent dividend payer. Sadly, it no longer has the 15-20%+ compounded annual growth it used to have 10 years ago - mainly just a dividend stock now.

Not bad... BDI 7 sessions down but share price is on an uptrend...

DRP has 2 options.
Option 1 - 28 cent full cash payment
Option 2 - 14 cent cash and 14 cent DRP to purchase new shares @ RM7.80 per share

If you have 1,000 shares then
Option 1 - You get RM 280 cash (before bank fees if any)
Option 2 - You get RM140 cash and 35/36 Maybank shares purchased at RM7.80 (can't remember the rounding).

There is a calculator which is released on the website closed to the ex-date.
https://www.maybank.com/en/investor-relations/dividends/dividend-reinvestment-plan/DRP-calculator.page?

Another H1 dividend declared of 22cents with Q2 PAT of RM850 million. Past 2 quarters of profits have been on the decline trend. Hopefully, with economy gradually reopening next quarter earnings will increase.

Based on current share price dividend yield is almost 8% compare this to your EPF 5+% and FD 1.7+%.

Wow dividend exceeded expectation. 28 cents awesome!

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/08/26/maybank-posts-2q-net-profit-of-rm196bil

Net tangible Assets only 16cents! Major shareholder Creador is selling shares for the 2nd time post IPO in October 2020. Less than 1 year since IPO they are selling and reducing shareholding from 18% to 12+%. If it’s such a great share and price has significant upside they wouldn’t be rushing to sell…

Below just released from MaybankIB

MSIA BULK CARRIE: (MBC MK, CP: MYR0.705, Not Rated) On track for a turnaround in FY21
Maybank IB Retail Research

Malaysia Bulk Carriers returned to the black in 2Q21 reporting a PATMI of MYR32.1m. This took 1H21 PATMI to MYR47.1m (+35% YoY). Excluding net exceptional gain of MYR13.5m, its 1H21 core PATMI was MYR33.5m (1H20 LATMI: MYR16.3m). In comparison, the group booked in net exceptional gain of MYR51.3m a year ago. No dividend was declared for the quarter.

The stronger 1H21 results were attributable to: 1) a 10% YoY increase in revenue, thanks to an 84% YoY increase in charter rates; and 2) lower operating expenses arising from a smaller fleet size and redelivery of two loss-making chartered-in vessels. With this set of earnings, the group is on track for a turnaround in FY21.

Moving into 3Q, earnings could be inflated by disposal gains. On 4 Aug 2021, two subsidiaries of the group signed Memorandum of Agreements to dispose vessels M.V. Alam Madu and M.V. Alam Molek to third parties. The total net consideration from the sale was approximately MYR208m

Outlook wise, management expects demand to stay elevated due to Covid-related disruptions which have led to congestion in ports and tightened supply of tonnage. Meanwhile, firm freight rates would also lend support to its prospects. On the flip side, downside risks include the Delta variant which may impact global economy.

So far, no broker covers the stock. Valuation wise, P/B is a more appropriate methodology due to its earnings track record. At current price, the stock is trading at a P/B of 2.2x, which is higher than its 3-year historical average P/B of 1.5x. Balance sheet wise, its net gearing ratio stood at 0.5x as at end-Jun 2021.

Must give credit where credit is due. MBC forum chat is the very few chats on i3 that does share good company analysis and understanding. Rest mostly talking crap, superficial and unimportant matters. Thank you all contributors.

JovaneChua your statement on dividends is simply not true. Many retirees depend on consistent dividends from solid blue chip companies. I personally know and met these type of investors in AGMs and my own family and friends. They have been investing for decades and sit of portfolios in the hundreds of thousands to several millions. Especially in their later years, they will prefer peace of mind to receive consistent dividends and prefer capital preservation rather than prioritize portfolio growth.

I doubt MBC management will use the sales proceeds to buy newer vessels in the near term as they are very conservative. Making ship purchases at record prices/near historic peaks is not how they run their business.

Most likely they will just utilise the remaining vessels and capitalise on the higher shipping rates and only do a fleet expansion once shipping rates normalise. All these one off gains won't be reflective in the long term share price as the market will evaluate the company based on operating profits of the remaining fleet.

Happy you are back Batu88. I was tempted to ask you for Q3 steer since your Q2 prediction was very accurate. It looks like a sell/pair down for me with fair value around ~80 cents for 2021 unless BDI can surpass 4,000 and stay above that level for long.

Reading into the details though the Q2 is not as good as we would have liked it to be because it includes gains of RM6.6 mil (gain of vessel disposal MV Alam Sejahtera) and RM6.9 mil being gain from derecognition of a Joint Venture. Without those gains PAT would be RM18.5 mil?

PAT RM32.05 million EPS 3.21cents for Q2 2021 compared to RM15million in Q1. Cum YTD RM47 million (4.71 cents). Average TCE/day for H1 2021 is USD14,946

You Bought at RM7 then sell at RM18 and bought back at RM18 and keep until RM7.... legendary! True believer indeed. May you get plenty of Harta (treasure) soon.

Activestream, your JFTech going up and up since your recommendation - 2 thumbs up!

I am not a shareholder and never was but wished I had invested many years ago. Just read the MaybankIB research report dated 4th Aug 2021 and would like to share the below:

1. TP has been reduced from RM9.80 to RM6.80 due to rapid reduction in ASP prices.
2. Maybank has shared the Key risk to be - Rising competition may hit profitability. It is forecasted that there will be a surplus in production capacity exceeding demand by 18% in 2023, followed by a 49% surplus in production capacity by 2024, according to Vital Factor analysis. Oversupply would lead to the decline in ASP and could potentially adversely affect Hartalega’s profitability

When a certain sector makes lots of money, soon after there is usually more competition. As some might know even Mah Sing a property developer is now a glove producer. China, Thailand and others are ramping up production in addition to Malaysian producers causing an oversupply in gloves. All this will happen as vaccinations ramp-up and we head closer to herd immunity. So it will be a double whammy of surplus gloves and less demand due to Covid.

Get the facts right. US covid cases has been on an uptrend due to Delta variant since early July 2021. 9th August 2021 officially reported cases was 235,099 cases.

dimmubroker, MRDIY is hardly a good long term investment. It is just a counter running high on enthusiasm of high profits (high expected CAGR) touted by the various IB analysts and many people thinking Brahmal can do some magic.

This year IBs expect ~RM400 million PAT (doable) and next year they are saying ~RM700 PAT (unlikely – very challenging). For all this high expectations they are putting high PE ratios of 40-50x multiples. Only time will tell who is right…. Seasoned investors would know every time they see Investment Banks (IBs) analyst regularly shore up a counter...not long after the truth prevails and they lose their money just like all those uncles and aunties who bought glove counters near the highs when the IBs kept saying it'll go higher and higher and higher and keep upping their forecast TPs.

I just read both RHB Investment Bank and Maybank Investment 6th August 2021 research paper.
MaybankIB - TP = RM4.00. Expecting RM456 mil PAT @ 46.5 PE for FY2021
RHBIB - TP = RM4.41. Expecting RM442 mil PAT @ 48 PE for FY2021.

Sapura, the reasons you are looking for has already been shared and discussed here months ago and still stands until today....

Sharon, woohoo keep the good news coming!!!

Q2 results just out with PAT of RM82.1 million which is -34.2% compared to Q1 PAT of RM124.8 million. Consequently lower dividend of 0.006 cents announced compared to Q1 of 0.008 cents. If you have 10,000 MRDIY shares you can expect a Q2 dividend of RM60 (before deduction of any bank fees).

LPI steady as always. Dividend ex-date on August 20th. PBT increased about 10% compared to Q1. Claims incurred ratio also going even lower to 35.8% payout which is basically unheard of for Malaysian insurance.

Pingdan, yup I do recall the company has a valuation of ~RM50+ million attached to that vessel to be sold. What I meant was once they confirm it has been sold, then it will be a positive for the company as the cash position from the sale and quarterly profits will put MBC in a much better financial position and hopefully it gets reflected by means of a higher share price.

Sapurakencana, analyst use to cover MBC regularly 10 years back but ever since the shipping industry had a downturn, started to consolidate and experience year after year of losses it dropped out of the analyst radars. I am confident MBC will do well this year (it would be unrealistic to think otherwise) and I have held my position since Feb 21 till now with entry price of 49 cents.

Hopefully RM25million is on the low side. There is still slightly higher USD that can push profit higher. Also, there is the one off gain from vessel disposal to be reported. Sadly, analyst don’t don’t cover this counter.

Share price has not been doing too well this year but hopefully end of August the company will declare the usual 20+ cents dividend.

4th Quarter NPI just announced with 2.35 cent dividend payout. NPI at RM54.7 million.

Everyone is waiting for Q2 results to analyze. Expected coming out the week before Merdeka ~26th August. If BDI maintains as it is until then or increases then Q3 results would be obvious.

Never mind about that rookie Pingdan. The person can express themselves, just that we only hope it has more informed facts and market insights rather than spam the chat with useless statements.

After thinking about it most likely the person is new to the markets and investing judging from the use of catch phrases like ESG and such confidence in shorting. MBC can definitely be shorted but using IDSS for retail investors.

Shorting is not easy at all. I’ve tried and lost money shorting Tesla. Timing the short is extremely difficult unless you have very deep pockets and high risk appetite to top up your short position when market moves against it.

Onwards to huat huat huating.

Omg people, waste my Saturday and regretting to check the chat on the weekend - total waste. Seeing this nonsense, no value added crap being posted. Such a simple business case also can't brain. Talking about 'contrarian views' but actually nothing but 'under-informed views'. Literally almost everything being spewed out by this person is of no to little consequence to MBC

At least previously we had Parksonguy who gave real informed views specific to MBC on potential impairments, rights issue, number of ships etc. which the forumers could verify and/or debunk. .

Go and do your Intraday Short Selling (IDSS) or whatever short pants you wearing. Come back 6 months later and brag about how much money you lost. Probably also best to stick to your wallstreet Meme stocks as well if you don't want to contribute to adding value to the knowledge being shared here.

Not much to imagine... MRDIY already has ~35%+ of the market share for home improvement. FY2020 PAT is RM337 million. Earnings quoted in the NST news report in the above link is totally wrong. Please refer to the 2020 annual report or Bursa filings.

Say lah HIGH CASE estimate MRDIY can somehow earn RM700 million PAT for 2021 (more than 2x 2020 earnings) and increase market share. Their dividend policy is 40% x 700 = RM280 million dividends = 4.4 cents paid per share. Meaning your yearly dividend yield is only 1% (lower than FD).

Market cap today is RM21.5 bilion with high case earnings assumption of RM700 million means it is equivalent of 30.7 years of earnings (over valued). NTA 16 cents meaning you sell the entire company each shareholder will only get back 16 cents per share (over valued). Revenue Q4 2020 versus Q1 2021 increase by 100million (30% increase) but net profit increased only 15% meaning margins are being scarified to get more sales. Q1 2021 net profit is at RM125 million and if it does not keep growing in the subsequent quarters then it will be very unlikely to achieve a spectacular growth rate to support its already high valuation. EPS for RM700 million PAT would be 11.2 cents (Year 2020 is 5.4 cents) meaning the PE ratio for high case 2021 earnings 30.5 which is very high for a non-tech stock with low dividend yield.

NoviceFish no need to warn them so much, some people just won't get it.... time will show how this MrDIY story turns out.... share price dropping n dropping but it is still worth RM21.5 billion... crazy!!

So many forum people already warned that this counter is over priced and doing business in a highly competitive market with low margin yet still ada so many others believe in it and buying more and more shares as it falls. When asked to explain the rational just keep supporting saying it is such a great company bla bla but nothing material to add.

Hmmm. Better to just donate your money to Tabung Covid or the local foodbanks.

Where are all the jokers few months ago saying TP5/7 etc etc???

Maybank Powerbroker Global Platform charges minimum USD25 per trade for US equities. So for people buying small amounts USD1-2k it won't be worth it to use this platform.

Ñext dividend is around the corner people. Accumulate around RM7.8x if it dips further and wait to collect another round of dividend ~10-15 cents expected to declare around Merdeka time. Good to have solid dividend paying share in these volatile times.

@Wallstreetrookie your trading thesis (can't call it investment) lacks substance. Firstly, whether or not a company has high ESG score is not a prerequisite to company growth or share price increase. Kudos to your emphasis on ESG though. If you were so concerned about ESG you would be busy on the Maybank/Public Bank/MYEG/DIGI etc etc forums..

Secondly, claiming that you are not bothered about BDI when the BDI basically defines the performance for a counter like this only shows that you really need to understand what is important. Thirdly, inflation data...if you have read the comments here properly you would understand the the rational behind the high conviction for the Batic index outperformance in the near/mid term.

LaoTze... The Market is not exactly efficient. I bought shares in Vietnam in a company who's earnings kept going up and up yet share price gradually fell down and down. I did many hours of research and pumped in considerable amount of money as I believed sooner or later valuations will get too cheap and the price has to go up. Kept the shares and added since 2018 and only now (end of 2020) it started to rocket up making the long wait well worth it.

Point is that correlation between share price valuation and earnings is not in real-time. It takes time for the market and investors to catch up on certain counters, especially less well known/popular ones.

Maybulk = HODL for 6+ months ....easy

Activestream... I had a look at your JFTECH. Interesting company overall with their many Patents and 5G related business. BUT with a market cap of RM1.3billion as of today and only RM27mil revenue and RM8million PAT for 2020. Even if they grow at 100%+ yoy compounded which current 9month earnings show they have already reached the Moon at current valuation. High expectations already price at current levels so more downside than upside in the event they are unable to meet those high expectations.

Haha always nice to come to MBC chat, such a fun group of people.

So different from those Top Glove people .... all whining and begging for TG Boss to save them from their hefty losses (omg lol).

@Hafid wow you were right... this counter really came back to the 1.8 level.

Happy to have come to this chat group and learnt from the experts here which made me realise the bull case I expected for MSC unlikely to realise and made me sell at a small loss.

Activestream... nice didn't realise today was goreng2 day. Too busy working and monitoring my more interesting global investments. Anyways Genetec is a Tech play riding on US tech market enthusiasm. Unfortunately, Maybulk is in a 'boring' shipping industry which is unlikely to be a potential goreng limit up counter. More suitable for investors than short term traders/swing trades.

and why this Chief999 always say cannot wait for share price to go up lah. Maybulk has already appreciated 47% YTD. There's not many other counters performing this well on Bursa, none of the big caps for sure. Unless you bought at the peak RM0.8+ cents awhile ago then understand....