Teo Seng Capital (TSCB MK, NOT RATED, FV: MYR4.26)
“Egg-ceptional” Value, Golden Yields Ahead
Trading Idea

♦️ MYR4.26 FV based on 7.5x FY25F P/E. Teo Seng Capital is well-positioned to sustain strong earnings through cost efficiencies and steady demand driven by population growth and tourism. Benefiting from favourable market conditions ie strengthening MYR and lower feed costs, its resilient performance is further supported by its planned distribution centre in Pahang, which will bolster supply chain efficiency for its top mini-market chain client. With attractive dividend yields of 10.3% (annualised) and 7.2% for 2H24F and FY25F, TSCB should be rerated from its low 4.2x FY25F P/E.

♦️ Link to report: https://research.rhbtradesmart.com/files_preview?hash=8c38140e-e63f-4b00-9ce9-098d5f963c18

Congrats to all holders unfazed by the news of the subsidy removal. Those with the gumption to buy in on the sell-off on that fateful day is laughing all the way to the bank today.

In 2022, Malaysia exported $154M in Eggs. The main destinations of Malaysia exports on Eggs were Singapore ($138M), Hong Kong ($6.73M), Brunei ($3.24M), Maldives ($2.04M), and Timor-Leste ($1.5M).

Good news for egg producers in the long run but the brekky roti telur price will go up for sure

😄

@Simonalibaba, how do you derive at this value? You better not pluck from the sky lo....haha

@mylo, it all boils down to political stability. Investors, be it local or foreign, loathe political turmoil. The current administration, in spite of it weaknesses, must have done something right for the first time in many years. The ringgit will be strong until the next election, at the very least.

Not too bothered about its daily price movement. I've always treat this counter as a dividend-paying stock. Looking forward to end-Nov when the company's performance is historically announced.

Not a single one of them has disposed. Perhaps peer pressure. He who blinks first loses.

In share trading, I've learnt to expect the unexpected. The bunch of retirees who meets every Sunday for tea has not been bothered with the price movements of this counter of late. Steady.

So much negativity. So much hate. Not a single positive post elsewhere.

This has to be it, right guys? I mean how many MOUs can they sign?

@mylo, hope this excerpt from an MIDF Research article 'RINGGIT GETTING SOME APPRECIATION' dated 01 Aug 2024 explains the affects of the strengthening of MYR on GASMSIA's earnings and profit:

The Downstream (Refining and Marketing) division will see a more positive impact. This
is in consideration that refined products (Mogas, Diesel, Jet A1 and petrochemicals) sold
domestically are priced in MYR, which is expected to remain stable. Imported crude oil, natural
gas and other feedstocks would be cheaper, subsequently reduce the cost of goods sold and
potentially increase margins. The lower input costs eventually translate to lower prices for
consumers, hence potentially increasing demand for downstream oil and gas products across
the board. In this division, we opine that Petronas Dagangan (BUY, TP:RM24.91) has the
advantage due to lower import costs for crude oil which could add to higher volume and thus
higher sales. Similarly, Gas Malaysia’s (BUY, TP:RM3.96) focus on local operations of gas
sale and distribution would be stable under its MYR-denominated sales, in addition to lower
equipment cost. However, we noted that exports priced in USD will yield lower revenue.
Petronas Chemicals (NEUTRAL, TP:RM7.18) would likely see lesser volume sold, on top
of the continuous supply-demand imbalance amid tough competition with China petrochemical
manufacturers. Nevertheless, the significant cost reduction from imports of USD-denominated
feedstock could significantly outweigh the revenue pressure and subsequently improve
margins.

Certainly looks like it will return to the price range before the hoo-haa. Ruined its reputation in the process. Many are ruing not offloading their holdings when price was at its peak because for a bank stock like Affin, opportunity like this may never come again perhaps not in the short-term.

It's actually good to be out of the spotlight.

Too many retail buyers playing contra. Buy solely for capital gain then spread false info hoping for price to drop to buy in again, bragging at each successive cycle.

Rally cooling off. Now begins the period of waiting for the signing of the purchase agreement.

Why is it done on the open market? Not direct transaction at fixed price? Between 11.20 to 11.22am just now, I noticed several blocks of 500k units changed hands.

Buyers are super confident, defying the strong sell call.

Bursino, don't forget to also pray hard no more surprises. Just smooth sailing all the way.

Plantermen, I understand your explanation. I just that I couldn't accept the self-inflicted damage to the good reputation of the bank. I can't tolerate people labeling it as a 'pump & dump' counter. It's just not.

If not for the boo-boo that occurred about 2 weeks ago and the memorable meltdown on Monday, I wonder how much it's worth now per share. Such are the hurdles it has to endure.

Just my own prediction, by the time the sale is finalized, Affin's share price would be hovering in the range of 4.00 - 4.10

What klee stated above about transferring the State's funds into Affin and conduct all it's business and banking activities thru Affin is a high possibility. I never thought of that. In fact why not? Once the State holds a controlling stake in the said bank it's only logical and reasonable that they do so. Not so sure about the size of the funds but I'm sure it's going to be significant.

The selldown today is due to retail investors taking profit and capital to chase glove counters? Open for discussion, anyone?

There are more pressing matters to attend to, like vote, understand the financial position and future direction of the bank than door gifts. Why is it so important? Are you a collector?

Price didn't hit my desired target. Wait for the next opportunity to add. Poultry business is cyclical. There's always another chance.

BNM is uneasy about not having an independent chairman for transparency reason. Let's hope they can clear this stumbling block soon.

Quoting report:
Financial weekly "The Edge" quoted people familiar with the matter as reporting that at this stage, the Sarawak state government is seeking approval from Bank Negara to increase its existing shareholding, which is 4.8%, to about 30% in one fell swoop.

It is understood that Sarawak intends to nominate Tan Sri Abdul Aziz Hussan, chairman of its economic development agency, to serve as chairman of Affin Holdings.

Sources said that it is still unclear whether this will be achieved, but Bank Negara Malaysia prefers that Affin Holdings have an independent chairman.

To me Serbadk is game over.
TSCB still have plenty of prospect. That's how I see it. Every consolidation is a buying opportunity. Every time a farm affected by avian flu is a buying opportunity.

I think it's possible to reach as low as 1.50-1.55 range.

Keep position and benefit from expected higher returns to shareholders in coming qtrs.

Stay calm. Share dividend credited today.

Door gifts at AGM seems to be the prerequisite for attendance. I think the meeting takeaways are what we're after.

Obviously BNM dragging its feet because the offered price is too low. I'm sure many of you have noticed by now, Affin's head honchos are buying their own company's share. It's not uncommon I know but acquiring now? What does this indicate? Interesting nobody is talking about it.

Another Taiwanese-controlled company listed in KLSE with generous div payout you guys can consider is CSCSTEL (5094). Probably many of you are aware already anyway, but for the newbies, you can put some of your eggs into this steel basket.

Once the dust has settled, price will appreciate. Similar to REXIT share sale and appointment of new board members

Not conspiring to mislead, the Sarawak factor has overshadowed the financial results.

I'd be surprised if they propose any dividend at all much less a special one. Of course I'd be happy if they do as their policy dictates. We shall see in due time.

Is it possible a "hidden entity" is involved?

One question guys...something I can't seem to find an explanation. Why is EPF actively disposing?

rohank71, appreciate you pointing out this factor that many failed to consider. I'm pretty sure there are non-performing, money-losing assets/investments in Affin's book. Still after discounting these, fair value per share as you calculated is 3.20- Yes the night is still young.

If everything is done according to procedure and above board there's no reason for BNM to disapprove.

beluga, from your experience what's the perceived acceptable premium assuming Affin is trading 0.6x PB, for successful takeover?

I'd refrain from setting any nonsensical TP. In for the long-term div. If you're looking for a quick gain, look elsewhere.

I'd like to chip in if I may. Consolidation is healthy for this counter. It's not a penny stock susceptible to such speculation. I'm holding for the long term regardless of the outcome.

I tend to see the same outcome as beluga on his prediction that Sarawak will not be content with just a 20% stake. I've always believed small banks like Affin are targets of M&A. More to come.

NTA 4.69
You make your decision whether to sell or collect.

It's not a hype. It's a target, a foresight. Short-term traders will be small-term traders. Making small, quick gains here and there. What actually perplexed me was Boustead Holdings Bhd acquired 200k on 22 Nov. What are they up to?

If they keep up the good performance qtr to qtr basis, expect to be incentivized for holding or adding to your portfolio because price is still attractive to enter.