Relax guys. Prai plant has a production capacity if 1 million tonnes per annum. MSM as a group, only sells about 1.1m tonnes for the whole year. it can do so without johor plant for the entire year.

@Young Money, you got it right

What you are alluding to is the overall macro environment. And you are spot on, the macro environment for sugar demand is extremely positive vs 2020.

: )

Glad it helps! If you read through the post carefully, earning direction couldn't be clearer. : )

For those who like to crunch numbers, Part 2 of MSM's 1Q21 analysis is up:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/matthann/2021-03-25-story-h1542986299-MSM_Malaysia_The_Case_for_a_Strong_1Q21_Surprise_Part_2.jsp

@CharlesT For targeted export sales, you can refer to Affin Hwang's report. All figures I quote are publicly available info.

Whether or not the 3 factors can be sustainable, we shall wait for the 1Q report to make further judgement. For now, it is sufficient to say 1Q/2Q results will have a high chance of good results.

@CharlesT, you have nailed one of the most important catalyst for MSM: Export. Contrary to what you have alluded, Export segment is likely the growth driver for MSM for FY21. 2019 numbers is a poor reference for FY21 volume precisely because this year they have penetrated new markets with new products.

Importantly, you highlighted 65% locked in volume. This is 220,000 tonnes already secured for FY21, a 150% increase from 2019. And we are only in first quarter of 2021. Hope that helps!

@goldenhorse. Yes, the disposal price is surprisingly lower than what F&N has appeared to offer. However, I wont be too hung up on this, because this is a one-off/non-operational item. In any case, this is the icing on the cake for a profitable 2 operating quarters ahead (I hope).

Arvin6, thanks! you have not read the post correctly on the land disposal. try to re-read it again. You referred to "super good news", let not our opinions be formed by unsubstantiated news. Part 2 will detail down in an factual & unbiased-term, numbers backed reasons on why MSM has more than a good chance of surpassing expectations. I will not provide a target price, for that is not the reason I am writing. That is the easy part for the informed.

Hi guys. For those of you who like an objective, fact-based, and unemotional assessment of MSM, I have produced the first post on MSM Malaysia – The Case for a Strong 1Q21 (Part 1).

Some of you may be wondering how is the upcoming quarters going to look like, hence thinking about buying/selling. This post is for you.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/matthann/2021-03-24-story-h1542956477-MSM_Malaysia_The_Case_for_a_Strong_1Q21_Part_1.jsp

Stay tuned for Part 2, where I will provide an unbiased detailed numbers analysis on MSM. Happy investing!

Based on all the latest info we have, MSM has a good chance of springing a positive surprise for 1Q21 results. Will write a blogpost on it soon. If calculations proves right, MSM could be recording at least an EBITDA of RM97m with a margin of 15.8%. This will surpass 4Q20's performance.