the below is dated 5th Feb. Yours is end of Jan.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/health/wuhan-coronavirus-flawed-report/index.html

Betkaukau...check the recent finding...the asymptomatic spreading claimed earlier is now refuted by scientist.

Other affected airlines at heart of the coronavirus area had barely dropped....WTF!


Air China Ltd: Peak of 8 to 6.90 : 13% drop

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/753:HK

China Airlines Ltd: Peak of 9 to 8.3 : 7% drop

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/2610:TT

China Southern Airlines Ltd: Peak 5.4 to 4.7: 13% drop

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/1055:HK

...and please stop that nonsense on coronavirus as if you want dividend to be paid every quarter...and its causing end of the world

this virus implication to airlines is max 2 months (check what happen during SARS)..

that impatient meh? I think as investors one should not mind wait another 6 months....or even a year..when return is certain

even china airlines after complete halt share price only drop 16%
...........................................................

and if i (Airbus) dont do it...my competitor (Boeing) will do...i really dont want that to happen....

I am 100% certain..the driving force...the sponsoring scheme was definitely initiated by Airbus instead of AirAsia....

as it is Airbus who is to gain from it.
.......................................

If i am from Airbus with such a loyal customer....i will definitely feel obliged to treat them.

Business is not robotic decisions made purely based on numbers...there is a lot of human aspects to it....

what about service & maintenance support...how do you measure these?
you cannot use numbers (price) alone...

its about how quick they response with correct - precise solutions...instead of trial & errors...

these make a lot of difference on after sales.

Posted by probability > Feb 7, 2020 12:27 AM | Report Abuse X

you guys still talking rubbish like bapuks liao.....

Airbus sold 575 planes to AA...do you know what is the value or not?

thats US$ 50 Billion.
.....................

what is US$ 50 Million vs US$ 50 Billion?

Thats exactly same like you treat your customer (4 or 5 people from the same company) for a RM 1000 lunch at a good chinese restraunt for an RM 1 Million order they placed for your product.

Its just damn 0.1% treat of the value of the product sold....

I used to have it every new year with my supplier. It develops good relationship and understanding for even negotiating the price when placing order

Look at the cost they incur for buying the planes from Airbus below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AirAsia

On June 2011 AirAsia ordered 200 Airbus A320neos at the Paris Air Show.[67][68] The planes were originally due to become available in 2015, and the deal was one of the largest ever for commercial aircraft in a single order.[67] The deal was worth US$18 billion at list prices, although AirAsia will have obtained a substantial discount from those prices. The deal makes AirAsia Airbus' single biggest customer.

On 13 December 2012, AirAsia placed an order for an additional 100 Airbus A320 jets, splitting it between 64 A320neo and 36 A320ceo.[70] At the Farnborough International Air Show in 2016, Air Asia ordered 100 A321neos at an estimated cost of US$12.6 Billion dollars at list prices.

Air Asia plans to fly these larger aircraft to airports that have infrastructure constraints.[72] AirAsia received its first A320neo In September 2016.

With this, the total number of orders that AirAsia had placed for the Airbus A320 family had gone up to 575, reaffirming the carrier's position as the largest airline customer for the Airbus single aisle product line.[73]



(1) WHAT AIRBUS GAINS?
.......................


say Airbus hikes their margin by 0.5% by bribing TF and KM with US$ 50M:

Airbus cost of 300 Units: US$ 18B + US$ 12.6B = US$ 30.6B

Airbus gain:

= 0.5% x US$ 30.6 B
= RM 650 Million

Net Airbus gain:

= RM 650 Million - RM 200 M (bribery)
= RM 450 Milliom




(2) WHAT TF & KM GAINED?

.........................


What TF & KM gained from bribery of US$ 50M:

= RM 200 M

loss in AA with combined stake of 32%:

= 32% x 650 Million (cost hike)
= RM 210,000

Net gain by TF & KM:
= 200 - 210
= - 10 Million

...................

From the above, i cannot see any logic even if 100% of the bribery amount of 200 M went into their pocket...

will Airbus just for the sake RM 450M gain bribe RM 200M?
If Airbus benefited more by hiking more on their planes price....TF & KM will definitely suffer greater loss...

I hope the above rational, logical argument sinks to everyone's head.

========================================================

Posted by probability > Feb 7, 2020 12:27 AM | Report Abuse X

you guys still talking rubbish like bapuks liao.....

Airbus sold 575 planes to AA...do you know what is the value or not?

thats US$ 50 Billion.
.....................

what is US$ 50 Million vs US$ 50 Billion?

Thats exactly same like you treat your customer (4 or 5 people from the same company) for a RM 1000 lunch at a good chinese restraunt for an RM 1 Million order they placed for your product.

Its just damn 0.1% treat of the value of the product sold....

I used to have it every new year with my supplier. It develops good relationship and understanding for even negotiating the price when placing order

Look at the cost they incur for buying the planes from Airbus below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AirAsia

On June 2011 AirAsia ordered 200 Airbus A320neos at the Paris Air Show.[67][68] The planes were originally due to become available in 2015, and the deal was one of the largest ever for commercial aircraft in a single order.[67] The deal was worth US$18 billion at list prices, although AirAsia will have obtained a substantial discount from those prices. The deal makes AirAsia Airbus' single biggest customer.

On 13 December 2012, AirAsia placed an order for an additional 100 Airbus A320 jets, splitting it between 64 A320neo and 36 A320ceo.[70] At the Farnborough International Air Show in 2016, Air Asia ordered 100 A321neos at an estimated cost of US$12.6 Billion dollars at list prices.

Air Asia plans to fly these larger aircraft to airports that have infrastructure constraints.[72] AirAsia received its first A320neo In September 2016.

With this, the total number of orders that AirAsia had placed for the Airbus A320 family had gone up to 575, reaffirming the carrier's position as the largest airline customer for the Airbus single aisle product line.[73]



(1) WHAT AIRBUS GAINS?
.......................


say Airbus hikes their margin by 0.5% by bribing TF and KM with US$ 50M:

Airbus cost of 300 Units: US$ 18B + US$ 12.6B = US$ 30.6B

Airbus gain:

= 0.5% x US$ 30.6 B
= RM 650 Million

Net Airbus gain:

= RM 650 Million - RM 200 M (bribery)
= RM 450 Milliom




(2) WHAT TF & KM GAINED?

.........................


What TF & KM gained from bribery of US$ 50M:

= RM 200 M

loss in AA with combined stake of 32%:

= 32% x 650 Million (cost hike)
= RM 210,000

Net gain by TF & KM:
= 200 - 210
= - 10 Million

...................

From the above, i cannot see any logic even if 100% of the bribery amount of 200 M went into their pocket...

will Airbus just for the sake RM 450M gain bribe RM 200M?
If Airbus benefited more by hiking more on their planes price....TF & KM will definitely suffer greater loss...

I hope the above rational, logical argument sinks to everyone's head.

=========================================================

hope the above answered your question sifu..


Posted by Up_down > Feb 7, 2020 12:24 AM | Report Abuse

China citizen are temporary bạnned from entering Vietnam started 5 Feb 20. Any delay in construction?

Posted by probability > Feb 5, 2020 5:37 PM | Report Abuse X

yes, thanks to Ricky Kiat. The below article should clear once and for all any uncertainties caused by the coronavirus on the timely electricity generation by the Hai Duong power plant as scheduled.


http://www.aepc1.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/2/1/art_14612_2062836.html

600,000 in Haiyang, Vietnam: Boiler blowing of Unit 1 completed successfully

Date: 2020-02-01
.................

On January 28, local time, the Haiyang 2 × 600 MW coal-fired power plant project completed the goal of No. 1 boiler No. 2 boiler ignition flushing tube, marking the successful completion of the boiler blowing pipe of No. 1 unit of Vietnam Hai Yang project, which is a complete set of follow-up units The start-up and grid-connected power generation were completed as scheduled.

Since the Haiyang project in Vietnam has entered the peak of installation and commissioning, all the construction personnel have made a concerted effort and are striving towards the goal of flushing pipes. During the firing and blowing of No. 2 boiler of Unit 1 coincides with the Spring Festival, the project department carefully planned and scientifically arranged the goals of the blowing pipe, and planned in advance the organization of construction personnel during the Spring Festival and the resumption of personnel after the festival to ensure the normal performance of the project around the Spring Festival. The project department set up an organization for installation and commissioning, with clear task decomposition and responsibilities in place. The project leader carried out film division management, professional departments strengthened independent management, and technology and production systems strengthened communication and fulfilled their responsibilities to ensure site construction continuity. The logistics department planned ahead and created a strong annual flavor for the construction site during the Spring Festival.

In addition, in the face of the recent severe situation of new coronaviruses, the Haiyang Project Department of Vietnam has taken timely measures to strengthen internal prevention and control propaganda on the one hand, to ensure that all staff have timely access to relevant prevention and control information, and on the other hand, to strengthen on-site control measures. The daily killing of living and office areas, the wearing of masks by all staff, entering the site to measure body temperature, and quarantine of new personnel, etc., created a safe construction environment.

you guys still talking rubbish like bapuks liao.....

Airbus sold 575 planes to AA...do you know what is the value or not?

thats US$ 50 Billion.
.....................

what is US$ 50 Million vs US$ 50 Billion?

Thats exactly same like you treat your customer (4 or 5 people from the same company) for a RM 1000 lunch at a good chinese restraunt for an RM 1 Million order they placed for your product.

Its just damn 0.1% treat of the value of the product sold....

I used to have it every new year with my supplier. It develops good relationship and understanding for even negotiating the price when placing order

I certainly agree Airbus bribed other Airline Chiefs...but not those who has the amount of stakes in the company like TF & KM.

...................

The stakes Directors have on the company matters & says a lot.



Posted by Cupcakes69 > Feb 6, 2020 11:51 PM | Report Abuse

@probability

cool calculations..

"From the above, i cannot see any logic even if 100% of the bribery amount of 200 M went into their pocket..."

TM & KM incurs -10 mil if they took the bribe. However, If they somehow could take 200 mil directly from the company instead of the bribe, they would lose 64 mil (0.32 x RM200 mil), which is more than the RM10 mil lost. So taking the bribe would have cost them less. The worst thing is, whether they take the bribe or not, other investors will also lose value. At least Tony & KM has the RM200 mil to offset their losses.

"will Airbus just for the sake RM 450M gain bribe RM 200M?"
-Idk, but reports said that they did bribe a lot of airlines, not just airasia.

Look at the cost they incur for buying the planes from Airbus below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AirAsia

On June 2011 AirAsia ordered 200 Airbus A320neos at the Paris Air Show.[67][68] The planes were originally due to become available in 2015, and the deal was one of the largest ever for commercial aircraft in a single order.[67] The deal was worth US$18 billion at list prices, although AirAsia will have obtained a substantial discount from those prices. The deal makes AirAsia Airbus' single biggest customer.

On 13 December 2012, AirAsia placed an order for an additional 100 Airbus A320 jets, splitting it between 64 A320neo and 36 A320ceo.[70] At the Farnborough International Air Show in 2016, Air Asia ordered 100 A321neos at an estimated cost of US$12.6 Billion dollars at list prices.

Air Asia plans to fly these larger aircraft to airports that have infrastructure constraints.[72] AirAsia received its first A320neo In September 2016.

With this, the total number of orders that AirAsia had placed for the Airbus A320 family had gone up to 575, reaffirming the carrier's position as the largest airline customer for the Airbus single aisle product line.[73]



(1) WHAT AIRBUS GAINS?
.......................


say Airbus hikes their margin by 0.5% by bribing TF and KM with US$ 50M:

Airbus cost of 300 Units: US$ 18B + US$ 12.6B = US$ 30.6B

Airbus gain:

= 0.5% x US$ 30.6 B
= RM 650 Million

Net Airbus gain:

= RM 650 Million - RM 200 M (bribery)
= RM 450 Milliom




(2) WHAT TF & KM GAINED?

.........................


What TF & KM gained from bribery of US$ 50M:

= RM 200 M

loss in AA with combined stake of 32%:

= 32% x 650 Million (cost hike)
= RM 210,000

Net gain by TF & KM:
= 200 - 210
= - 10 Million

...................

From the above, i cannot see any logic even if 100% of the bribery amount of 200 M went into their pocket...

will Airbus just for the sake RM 450M gain bribe RM 200M?
If Airbus benefited more by hiking more on their planes price....TF & KM will definitely suffer greater loss...

I hope the above rational, logical argument sinks to everyone's head.

==========================================================

Look at the cost they incur for buying the planes from Airbus below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AirAsia

On June 2011 AirAsia ordered 200 Airbus A320neos at the Paris Air Show.[67][68] The planes were originally due to become available in 2015, and the deal was one of the largest ever for commercial aircraft in a single order.[67] The deal was worth US$18 billion at list prices, although AirAsia will have obtained a substantial discount from those prices. The deal makes AirAsia Airbus' single biggest customer.

On 13 December 2012, AirAsia placed an order for an additional 100 Airbus A320 jets, splitting it between 64 A320neo and 36 A320ceo.[70] At the Farnborough International Air Show in 2016, Air Asia ordered 100 A321neos at an estimated cost of US$12.6 Billion dollars at list prices.

Air Asia plans to fly these larger aircraft to airports that have infrastructure constraints.[72] AirAsia received its first A320neo In September 2016.

With this, the total number of orders that AirAsia had placed for the Airbus A320 family had gone up to 575, reaffirming the carrier's position as the largest airline customer for the Airbus single aisle product line.[73]



(1) WHAT AIRBUS GAINS?
.......................


say Airbus hikes their margin by 0.5% by bribing TF and KM with US$ 50M:

Airbus cost of 300 Units: US$ 18B + US$ 12.6B = US$ 30.6B

Airbus gain:

= 0.5% x US$ 30.6 B
= RM 650 Million

Net Airbus gain:

= RM 650 Million - RM 200 M (bribery)
= RM 450 Milliom




(2) WHAT TF & KM GAINED?

.........................


What TF & KM gained from bribery of US$ 50M:

= RM 200 M

loss in AA with combined stake of 32%:

= 32% x 650 Million (cost hike)
= RM 210,000

Net gain by TF & KM:
= 200 - 210
= - 10 Million

...................

From the above, i cannot see any logic even if 100% of the bribery amount of 200 M went into their pocket...

will Airbus just for the sake RM 450M gain bribe RM 200M?
If Airbus benefited more by hiking more on their planes price....TF & KM will definitely suffer greater loss...

I hope the above rational, logical argument sinks to everyone's head.

==========================================================

what is 50M shared between 2 person indirectly versus the Billions ringgit interest they have on AA.........

That 50M did not even went to their pocket...may be RM 1k went in

you think all other companies in Bursa are held by "Puritans"?? They dont buy anything for their customers??

fcuk the hypocrisy....

market really need to wake up leh!
.................................

what is 50M shared between 2 person indirectly versus the Billions ringgit interest they have on AA.........

That 50M did not even went to their pocket...may be RM 1k went in

you think all other companies in Bursa are held by "Puritans"?? They dont buy anything for their customers??

fcuk the hypocrisy....

market really need to wake up leh!
.................................

what is 50M shared between 2 person indirectly versus the Billions ringgit interest they have on AA.........

That 50M did not even went to their pocket...may be RM 1k went in

you think all other companies in Bursa are held by "Puritans"?? They dont buy anything for their customers??

fcuk the hypocrisy....

market really need to wake up leh!
.................................

what is 50M shared between 2 person indirectly versus the Billions ringgit interest they have on AA.........

That 50M did not even went to their pocket...may be RM 1k went in

you think all other companies in Bursa are held by "Puritans"?? They dont buy anything for their customers??

fcuk the hypocrisy....

market really need to wake up leh!
.................................

TF owns 1/3 of AA....he is more concern on "shareholder's interest" than any other fcuking shareholders here....

TF owns 1/3 of AA....he is more concern on "shareholder's interest" than any other fcuking shareholders here....

yes Fortune...double whammy event...you can never find such cheap sale ever for AA!

In June 2011 AirAsia ordered 200 Airbus A320neos at the Paris Air Show.[67][68] The planes were originally due to become available in 2015, and the deal was one of the largest ever for commercial aircraft in a single order.[67] The deal was worth US$18 billion at list prices, although AirAsia will have obtained a substantial discount from those prices.[68] The deal makes AirAsia Airbus' single biggest customer.[69] On 13 December 2012, AirAsia placed an order for an additional 100 Airbus A320 jets, splitting it between 64 A320neo and 36 A320ceo.[70] At the Farnborough International Air Show in 2016, Air Asia ordered 100 A321neos at an estimated cost of US$12.6 Billion dollars at list prices.[71] Air Asia plans to fly these larger aircraft to airports that have infrastructure constraints.[72] AirAsia received its first A320neo In September 2016.

................


What is 50M vs US$ 18 Billion?

That is 0.2% margin impact.....

what fcuking non-sense bribery and shareholder value you all talking about....

In June 2011 AirAsia ordered 200 Airbus A320neos at the Paris Air Show.[67][68] The planes were originally due to become available in 2015, and the deal was one of the largest ever for commercial aircraft in a single order.[67] The deal was worth US$18 billion at list prices, although AirAsia will have obtained a substantial discount from those prices.[68] The deal makes AirAsia Airbus' single biggest customer.[69] On 13 December 2012, AirAsia placed an order for an additional 100 Airbus A320 jets, splitting it between 64 A320neo and 36 A320ceo.[70] At the Farnborough International Air Show in 2016, Air Asia ordered 100 A321neos at an estimated cost of US$12.6 Billion dollars at list prices.[71] Air Asia plans to fly these larger aircraft to airports that have infrastructure constraints.[72] AirAsia received its first A320neo In September 2016.

................


What is 50M vs US$ 18 Billion?

That is 0.2% margin impact.....

what fcuking non-sense bribery and shareholder value you all talking about....

In June 2011 AirAsia ordered 200 Airbus A320neos at the Paris Air Show.[67][68] The planes were originally due to become available in 2015, and the deal was one of the largest ever for commercial aircraft in a single order.[67] The deal was worth US$18 billion at list prices, although AirAsia will have obtained a substantial discount from those prices.[68] The deal makes AirAsia Airbus' single biggest customer.[69] On 13 December 2012, AirAsia placed an order for an additional 100 Airbus A320 jets, splitting it between 64 A320neo and 36 A320ceo.[70] At the Farnborough International Air Show in 2016, Air Asia ordered 100 A321neos at an estimated cost of US$12.6 Billion dollars at list prices.[71] Air Asia plans to fly these larger aircraft to airports that have infrastructure constraints.[72] AirAsia received its first A320neo In September 2016.

................


What is 50M vs US$ 18 Billion?

That is 0.2% margin impact.....

what fcuking non-sense bribery and shareholder value you all talking about....

buy the way...how fcuk does the business gets affected by his 'offset' now?

only thing remains now is the virus....

even that is already 'offset' by the cheap fuel....

cure is just around the corner

Tun M words are final...Lateefa will never refute Tun

Tomorrow market will digest and open above 1.30

If crook Trump can be the president of U.S...

will people ever hate Tony?

No way....cheap flight will buy everyone's heart

Human nature...past will be forgotten....

with this kinda cheap fuel...AirAsia will give Free Flights...

Virus fear will fade.....
Tony mistakes will be forgotten...

.........

AirAsia will fly...

You know what happens when wall breaks...

Time to whack AirAsia......

Dr.M can turn potential PM to convict and back again to a PM
..................

His words are final:

PM on AirAsia-Airbus scandal: It’s normal to have ‘offsets’ in business

Time to whack AirAsia......

Dr.M can turn potential PM to convict and back again to a PM
..................

His words are final:

PM on AirAsia-Airbus scandal: It’s normal to have ‘offsets’ in business

Time to whack AirAsia......

Dr.M can turn potential PM to convict and back again to a PM
..................

His words are final:

PM on AirAsia-Airbus scandal: It’s normal to have ‘offsets’ in business

Time to whack AirAsia......

Dr.M can turn potential PM to convict and back again to a PM
..................

His words are final:

PM on AirAsia-Airbus scandal: It’s normal to have ‘offsets’ in business

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/savemalaysia/2020-02-06-story-h1483078275-PM_on_AirAsia_Airbus_scandal_It_s_normal_to_have_offsets_in_business.jsp

Time to whack AirAsia......

Dr.M can turn potential PM to convict and back again to a PM
..................

His words are final:

PM on AirAsia-Airbus scandal: It’s normal to have ‘offsets’ in business

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/savemalaysia/2020-02-06-story-h1483078275-PM_on_AirAsia_Airbus_scandal_It_s_normal_to_have_offsets_in_business.jsp

2 minute video for layman to understand the thermal power plant below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI7AhajfhWE

The first part (the most difficult part):
...............

The furnace boiler operation by burning the coal and using the heat to boil water for Steam generation is done and tested.

The second part:
................

The steam Turbine for Power generation is just waiting to be fed by the steam to turn the turbine and generate power.


commissioning now is just about ensuring reliability of the system before connecting to the grid...

i think they meant:
...................

"complete set of "upstream units for the start-up" and grid-connected power generation were completed as scheduled"

instead of:

"complete set of "follow-up units The start-up" and grid-connected power generation were completed as scheduled"

.................

the google translator may not be that accurate in translating....

but, the turbine and generator set is already a highly engineered package like a car engine...there is nothing much to be tested & commissioned further...its just about passing the steam into the turbine now instead of the bypass done during "steam blowing test" earlier...

and then...everything is POWERED UP!

Investors now got a bargain of almost 20 cents , plus additional progress of 1 month towards scheduled electricity generation.

All purely due to the coronavirus fear....which had absolutely zero impact on the power plant.

yes, thanks to Ricky Kiat. The below article should clear once and for all any uncertainties caused by the coronavirus on the timely electricity generation by the Hai Duong power plant as scheduled.


http://www.aepc1.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/2/1/art_14612_2062836.html

600,000 in Haiyang, Vietnam: Boiler blowing of Unit 1 completed successfully

Date: 2020-02-01
.................

On January 28, local time, the Haiyang 2 × 600 MW coal-fired power plant project completed the goal of No. 1 boiler No. 2 boiler ignition flushing tube, marking the successful completion of the boiler blowing pipe of No. 1 unit of Vietnam Hai Yang project, which is a complete set of follow-up units The start-up and grid-connected power generation were completed as scheduled.

Since the Haiyang project in Vietnam has entered the peak of installation and commissioning, all the construction personnel have made a concerted effort and are striving towards the goal of flushing pipes. During the firing and blowing of No. 2 boiler of Unit 1 coincides with the Spring Festival, the project department carefully planned and scientifically arranged the goals of the blowing pipe, and planned in advance the organization of construction personnel during the Spring Festival and the resumption of personnel after the festival to ensure the normal performance of the project around the Spring Festival. The project department set up an organization for installation and commissioning, with clear task decomposition and responsibilities in place. The project leader carried out film division management, professional departments strengthened independent management, and technology and production systems strengthened communication and fulfilled their responsibilities to ensure site construction continuity. The logistics department planned ahead and created a strong annual flavor for the construction site during the Spring Festival.

In addition, in the face of the recent severe situation of new coronaviruses, the Haiyang Project Department of Vietnam has taken timely measures to strengthen internal prevention and control propaganda on the one hand, to ensure that all staff have timely access to relevant prevention and control information, and on the other hand, to strengthen on-site control measures. The daily killing of living and office areas, the wearing of masks by all staff, entering the site to measure body temperature, and quarantine of new personnel, etc., created a safe construction environment.

updated statistics in China excluding Hubei can be found here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

infected excluding Hubei:5319

fatality excluding Hubei:11

rate: = 11/5319
= 0.2%

we can raise the fatality rate to even 50% by depriving medical assistance / treatment completely..

our objective here is to determine the fatality rate having provided full medical assistance with the latest proven drugs..

that does appear to be 0.2% level..1 in 500 and its likely to come even lower than that.

even WHO were careful to declare emergency saying purely on the account of largely populated countries having poor healthcare facilities

Post removed.Why?

Fear should be directly proportional to the odds one would be dying due to this virus....allocating a reasonable low amount of resources (brain energy) for prevention.

the below posting earlier reasons why you should not be worried.

But that does not mean one should refrain from doing the necessary activities to prevent...same goes to passive smoking.

With the current screening done at international airports....you can be as relaxed...just like you dont wear a mask beside a smoker to avoid passive smoking.

of course the equation changes when people infected in your country goes beyond a threshold the country can manage easily


..................................
Feb 2, 2020 8:34 PM | Report Abuse


every year people die of passive smoking : 660,000

for coronavirus to hit the same level, at 0.2% fatality rate, it has to infect: 500 x 660,000 = 330,000,000 people annually.

Coronavirus has to infect 330 Million people annually to cause the same death of PASSIVE smoking (not even smoking)

................

Thats like it has to infect 1/4th of the Entire China population to cause the same death rate in a year due to passive smoking.
(Provided healthcare is available)

.................

at the rate it is infecting Internationally about 4 person locally (outside China) for 175 patients who came from Wuhan...every 1 month..

it will only infect 50 local people outside China after a year assuming present screening at the international airports is maintained.

There is a reason why the website below calculates the same at 0.3%...its not without a meaning

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Mortality Rate
The novel coronavirus' case fatality rate (CFR) is currently estimated at around 2%, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday, January 29, 2020

However, the WHO specified that this is a very early and provisional estimate that may change. Surveillance is increasing, within China but also globally, but at the moment:

We don't know how many were infected ("When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don't know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that."
.
The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO.
It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization .

A prior estimate [3] had put that number at 3%, between 2% and 4%.

Fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate, according to epidemiologists.

Once the province Hubei (where the epicenter Wuhan is situated) is removed from the calculation, the national (China) mortality rate drops to 0.3%.
=======================

Within the Hubei province, the mortality rate is about 1% when excluding the city of Wuhan (where it is 5.5%).

=======================

the pool sampled is large within China just excluding Hubei...best is if you can exclude Wuhan alone...

there is a logic why it was done and it was explained due to proper healthcare availability in time

....

this carries meaning to predict the fatality rate on actual scenario worldwide where proper healthcare for such patients would be abundant