ya. who buy the pp really untung. i think most in rubberex stuck above 1.3-1.4. pp holder if want 100% return only can escape without averaging down then. long term holder just sturdy

why worry. big 4 cannot operate, comfort has the biggest capacity amongst tier 2. and their main market is malaysia + asia where demand is continuously still high. they also might capture the gap in us and canada for short of supply from big 4. so win win win. soon will be pe below 2. i load up first

aiya this epf play play. but good la close its short position already again

wait till pp complete lor

gg AxeCapital2077

Wow. All big 4 factories in Selangor closed for EMCO. haha. Ruberex , Comfort and Careplus should be able to benefit from this. Just too bad for Ruberex i think because it must be supressed for PP to take place. Haihs. Good opportunity at not efficient timing

it is still a battle of perspective.

1. Glove making a lot of money now vs less money in future

Yes, now is abnormal profit, but increase in demand means opportunity to expand and still able to sell all your capacity. Even with drop in ASP, the quantum of volume and lower cost can help in at least make the company maintain about 50-70% of the eps. The key here is not ASP dropping, but what will be the normalize ASP after pandemic. Some say USD 28, some say USD 40, some say USD 45. Is up to your research. if everyone knows, all will be billionaire already. As an investor, this is where you need to do your research well and use your deduction power. Then you would be able to know what entry is consider undervalue.

2. China expand like crazy and will overtake Malaysia

Yes they expand quite quickly or do they. Can name me 10 companies with volume of their new capacity and which market they supply to? I think there is a reason we went through multiple pandemics and Malaysia is still the world leader in glove. Don’t look down on 20-30 years of experience and RND spent by Malaysian glove company. If you think China will be the world leader, then you are free not to invest here. But i stick to believing that Malaysia will keep being the leader in gloves worldwide and China cannot dethrone Malaysia. And all these China going big even by analyst, is without backings or evidence. It is just a sentence of ‘our analyst is in view of’. That is all.

3. Cannot sell new capacity

Current order is fully taken up until end of the year. Started taking 2022 order. Expansion is imminent. And having been in the industry for more than 10-15 years, will definitely give you better advantage. Buy iphone or buy iphone clone from dunno where with same ui and function better? lol

4. Analyst keeps downgrading. They must have known something we don’t knw

To me analyst has their own KPI to achieve and like how you are working in your company, to meet your KPi, you will do whatever it takes. Not to say all is like that, but if analyst is ever correct, why did when last few quarters glove companies has outperform their expectation and they keep downgrading the price but increasing their forecast numbers. The moment some slightly underperform, you lower your forecast and the forecast is probably higher than your initial forecast with a lower TP than your initial TP last time. It is like everytime you working as sales person, exceed sales target, give higher target but cut your commission. Once you cannot achieve your higher or increased sales target, say you are a failure and cut your comission and your bonus also now. You cannot win liao like that. Lol.

Just my 2cents. Do your own research. No need to badmouth investor who wish to buy in nor shall we condemn shall you want to cut win or cut lose.

so. analyst is there to give opinion. previously 3 consecutive quarter gloves company has outperformed their expectation. what did they do? increase forecast, cut target price. then when met expectation after 3 times being wrong what did they do? cut target price and maintain forecast. when slightly below their expectation what did they do? cut target price and reduce their forecast. what can glove need to do to make analyst increase their target price? nothing. lol. their report is to get some insights but if you can analyse your own is better. lol.

ok brian3381 i don’t think i will ever get intelligent analysis from you. i shall stop having any debate or sharing with you. good luck and i hope you make always in any counter you decide to buy. all the best

ooi8888 oh dia ada sailang itu genting ke. ooo then maybe he is a long term investor too. maybe in 5 years genting can start earning back. who knows. to me is its okay to have different view. just if you want to tell people to be careful or change people’s mind, need to do it with facts. not simply “no more profit. profit drop. run for your life. told you so” haiya. these kind i let my kids also can go type and tell people these stuff kan. haha hope he can see we all not investing unobjectively in rubberex

yeah brian3381 good earning already past does not make it no earning. if you earn 1 million from bull run of glove from having nothing, does that make you dirt poor because you are not gonna earn a another million in short period of time? i am sure you will say you have more bullet to earn somewhere and earn more from bigger base of your capital now compared to previous capital of yours. same as as gloves company. they earn big very big one time. now even if it is back to normal, doesn’t make their level back to pre covid the time where your capital is rm10k or rm15k. as simple as that

keown83 i am glad you come back with more constructive argument compared to last time. i am very happy to get these kind of opinion which is more detailed explanation why you think rubberex is not the one for you.

Yes i tend to agree with ValueInvestor20 and BuffetOnWeed. If you look at last 12M profit, it is the more than total profit that ruberex had ever accumulated, for the past 15 years combined. this is mindblowing. for people who buy based on trend and not fundamental, it might be “just a one off normal gain”. but when look and invest using fundamental, wow, more than 15 years worth of profit is not something you see every other years.

Why i see Ruberex as a good investment
1. Management managed the balance sheet pretty well, you can see they prefer to clear the debt first over anything else
2. Their expansion, is very structured. 1B to 2.5B. then all is taken till year end, then extend 7.5B extra capacity which is not too little and not too much in my opinion. that is 10x more than pre covid capacity.
3. Pre covid, ruberex despite being a small player, consistently paid dividend and consistently reported profit which shows how efficient their management is.

I believe market has not priced in all these yet. i may be wrong but i don’t see why i should not put any trust in the management to perform. you make a very good point by saying that they need to market more and increase their presence. but the current capacity is really taken up wor until year end. i cannot say they are not doing anything unless there are unsold capacity which is no evidence there yet. Anyway in order for a stock price to go up, there is always a need for people to have different opinion. i buy now expecting their fair value of 1.6-2. someone else need to see potential of fair value 2.50 for them to buy at 2 right? else price will be dead forever. investment journey is like that. trading is different. i am not trader nor i have ability to be a trader.

hehe i already buy lehh 1.03. now if drop every 10 cents i just keep topup a bit. lol. zero debt. cash rich. expansion plan in place. buffetonweed we can continue buy and hold let other people throw. it is a long game for us short game for them. end of 2022 we discuss again together our action plan

ya brian. i will collect. and i can’t say. i may be stuck 20 years. i maybe stuck 2 years. i maybe stuck 2 months. what i am sure if nothing changes, management is as efficient as it is right now, i am on the right track to make money. i agree. it is even ripe for MnA excercise. which you never know also looking at such clean balance sheet.

its okay brian. i am happy to get iced coffee and i am confident that i won’t lose here. i made my decision to invest here. and so far nothing really disappoints me. from management of cost, debt level management, modest expansion according to demand, cash level management. valuation wise also cheap. anyway i thank you for continous warnings. i agree this is for long term investor and not for who looking to gain short term. sentiment is really bad. but for investor i think good collection period cheers

ok ma. imagine if u only buy 1 lot only at high price 150rm. 50rm already 33% return worrr hahahaha

really got 50bucks starbucks voucher. alaa. i buy using rakuten cannot attend agm. shit la. should transfer to individual account haha

keown83 i never touched AT. and sorry i would still average down. and staggered entry. i never promoted. please share some calculation that the price now is overvalue for investor. then i would probably consider what you are trying to advise is of substance.

Hotstuff keown83 for trader yes. for investment no, i find it is a good time to invest. just stagger your entry would be fine for investor. i wish covid to be as low as possible and i would like the QR to report declining profit asap. once they do, the outlook on what the asp will be is more quantifiable and they can move towards being fair in value because things is more certain. declining profit is expected already. you don’t need to tell also everybody knows. but at this price, it is still undervalued even asp drop by half. i shared my calculation previously on why i say is undervalued based on halved asp in the comment above. so any drop i would like to add. thanks for your advise. if not comfortable just don’t buy. as easy as that

continue topup. i park to add 1.03 see can get or not. dunno wor got hope or not. what i understand which others no need to agree is this is severely undervalue. cash is almost 22% of current market cap. and debt is almost non existence. pe is in low range. expansion plan is in place. 2021 capacity fully sold. efficiency is improving. what else can you ask from the business. only missing is sentiment and certainty of asp when vaccination meets the target worldwide. but at this price really a good risk reward ratio. and looking at the balance sheet, it should even be a good target for m&a. but who knows

ValueInvestor20 oh okay. i get where you derive the figure now. thanks for pointing that out. that is. very well written argument. Thanks for shRing the blog post. Hope all this good sharing continue so we all can learn from each other

Wah. I am very tempted to take position. but i can find information about the project with zonescorp. However the data center in musaffah, not many news can be found. haiyaa. really pinin ini mcm. anyone have info to share. i share what i have found

ZonesCorp (part of Abu Dhabi Ports which is a government agency)
https://www.adports.ae/core-business/business-subsidiaries/zonescorp/

Zones Corp website announcement (seems like legit got project)
https://www.zonescorp.com/en/media-center/latest-news-events/news/2021/new-820-000-square-metre-hub-to-foster-research-and-innovation-in-abu-dhabi

Also in UAE mainstream news

https://www.cbnme.com/logistics-news/zonescorp-to-develop-820000-sqm-innovation-hub-in-abu-dhabi/

ValueInvestor20 Agree it is undervalue. just want to correct you, ruberex exposure is not 80% in malaysia. It has 50% exposure in Europe and 20% in south america according to its last annual report.

skcm2017 thank you. i admire you for always being cool headed and objective when discussing. what you said totally make sense. i am also still learning here. my assumptions in the calculation might also have a lot of flaws but i would say i lay it out for other people to point to me if i make a mistake or if i omitted important assumptions when i do the calculation. thank you for seeing every message objectively. i salute your coolness and objectivity to make this forum a better discussion place.

kepwn83 my point is why bother to say things without showing your prove. so many people show you why they say undervalue. you can say overvalue, not worth but show how you come to the conclusion. is it okay if you are a businessman, i go to your shop, buy things for cheap. another shop come, sell cheaper, i say you cut throat to all people your business will die. you might be selling higher brand and good quality product and next door might be selling lower quality goods. but if i simply say your shop is cut throat con people without prove or sharing my evidence fair or not fair? if i bother and care, i should give more evidence. if really dunno how to quantify, use superpower to determine it is overvalue? after pandemic after supercycle no hospital no company no mcd will use glove? 0 sales? bankrupt? if got business sure got valuation. so please at least show how it is overvalue. then people will be more educated and can make their own conclusion

bizzybone yes. i am in this with a clear unbiased manner.

10b capacity in 2022. Assume the worst;
- Asp drop until USD 35/1000 pcs (it is lesser by 30% predicted by frost and sullivan 44usd and rhb 40 usd)
- Utilisation at really low level only 60%
- Usd at 4.1 which is fair
- Profit margin reduced more than half and like in Q1 2020 13.9 vs 49.9 now.

Even at this very very minimal, prudent and ridicuolous calculation,
PE 10 give you price of RM1.44
PE 12 give you price of RM1.72

Where to get this kind of investment? Lols. if you think it is over then you can move on to other sector. Why need to bother people who already analyses and decide to invest. I personally is not looking for supernomal profit. Because of ridiculous assumptions can give me such upside i am willing to wait till even 2022 to let management prove they can do better than the ridicolous assumptions. Lol. If you disagree just list me your assumptions and how you come to say current price is overvalue. then it will be a much informative debate.

dun care. isnin any opportunity before shooting up, mau hntammmmm sikit.

hotstuff, if you say covid case is which region is the determinant of profit then you are saying that comfort will get a lot of business. read latest annual report 40% revenue from malaysia 30% from asia. where covid cases is rising. in fact 20 to us and canada which canada also experiencing increase in covid cases. i think that is not the ok benchmark to use. better use number covid test as measure.

Sneakpeek I own a lot of rubberex share but 85% revenue from malaysia market is not true. read the latest annual report, 50% of ruberex sales is in europe. 20% in south american country.

JK22 the thing is if many business impacted and less profitable, they cannot pay dividend. if cannot pay dividend, long term fund cannot pay dividend. one thing for sure, at least for this year, one that able to pay dividend is who. but that is just my thinking. talak tau la how market will react. market is never rational. For all you might know, PE 1 also might be possible. nobody knows

wah. legendary pang suda mari ka

gohkimhock hotstuff need to go more drive through. all mcd i go all wear glove to serve food one. not expecting LU. i am not expecting it to go sharp up also. in fact i think someone will continue press down because they only want to push up when people want to sell to collect cheap. but to be fair to gloves, the demand is really increasing. maybe not sustainable as much as current price but definately at a better place than pre covid.

ok shearer202. can. let all glove drop. become 20 cents better. make dividend yield become 200%. u buy 20 cents dividend 40 cents ok? until they no more money or maybe until close shop. then only you happy?

JK22. Last time ruberex used to pay div half yearly. so maybe next quarter got div la. i think la. not sure haha.

if sell please press until less than rm1. i want to load much much more. keeping mine until atleast rm1.6. if director not selling along the way then i keep until rm2 and wait for future result

ahchong01 i think last quarter some of the new capacity is already online. but i think this quarter margin will be higher and asp would be higher. utilization might reduced a bit because of covid cases around many factory. dunno ruberex impacted or not. but i am looking at the region of 80 profit which will make this PE 4.5. anything above is above my expectation for me which will make me hold longer.

<- after deducting 5 mil which is disposal gain, it is at 81 m pat which is close to the 80m pat i expected before. hence i will keep as currently is very undervalued. At least worth rm1.6 min in my honest opinion.

what are you going to do robertz

i think last quarter some of the new capacity is already online. but i think this quarter margin will be higher and asp would be higher. utilization might reduced a bit because of covid cases around many factory. dunno ruberex impacted or not. but i am looking at the region of 80 profit which will make this PE 4.5. anything above is above my expectation for me which will make me hold longer.

thank god kena press summore. sapuuuu moreeeee.

gemfinder yes. we hope case can go back to 0. atleast i hope so as soon as possible. and i also hope to keep sapu comfort till no more money and hope it will continue to go up. lolz

congrats robertzz skcm2017 Pandu1. keep sapu. don’t stop sapuuu. congrats to gemfinder also. although you did not admit it, we know you follow us sapu. gemsapuuuuuu. congratsssss

yes. keep buying comfort. now i think might be kena press down a bit compared to others to set the warrant excercise price. else not logic loh lower price than careplus and even lower price than adventa. lol

rubbish? sapuuuuuuuuuu saja. saya suka sapu rubbish. rumah bersih hati terbang

robertzz i suggest you just ignore him la, don’t respond to him and act like his comment never exist. more peaceful liddat

gemfider say useless, lets sapuuuuu

ks5S niceeee. hoooootttt hooottttttt everyday. below 3 everyday hoot

shearer lol this is glove counter not mask. who ask you to invest in mask counter. lols now crying here

Ini kaunter manyak bagus. 6.8b current capacity. 1.7b per quarter. Conservative calculation deliver 70% become 1.2b. ASP Supermax 80++, but assume Comfort around 70. Revenue jadi around 350m. Assume margin the same as last q 43.2% to be really conservative. NP become ard 150m. Eps become around 26. PE become 3.1 at current price. this conservative calculation oni. drop below 2 i want sapu alll in and hodl for years.

comfort byk chionggg. kalau 1.7 saya mahu all in

i think maybe ASP is around 70++. Margin maybe 40-45 percent and util around .9. i think only. then maybe np become ard 70 conservatively. eps might stagnate or up a bit only because all treasury share dumped already to the market. my opinion only wor. robertzz have better insight

if go 1.80 better. can hantammmm