Vivocom: A Darling Stock About To Awake Again?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ffd/2021-01-12-story-h1539293146-Vivocom_A_Darling_Stock_About_To_Awake_Again.jsp

Vivocom：即将再次崛起的热门股票？

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ffd/2021-01-12-story-h1539292965.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/alexchin88/144016.jsp

Today's announcemen by Vivocom is indeed very interesting & telling

Look at the announcement made today: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5662153

It says that the 'potential acquisition' has been extended by 2 weeks until 25th January 2018.

This announcement is good because the normal practice in Malaysia is that if there is no deal, they will just keep quiet and let it expire without saying anything.

Whereas this announcement is basically saying that the signing is in its final stage and it's on. Maybe they're still pending some paperwork or waiting for greenlights from the regulatory board?

Looking at today's trade, the bear was leading & in control. My speculation is contra kaki selling before T+3 is up.

14.0c turned from buyer to seller after a round of strong selling, however 13.5c is standing strong at 14.51 million buyers. Buy rate remained at 40.61%.

It seems like there's interested parties collecting the shares from impatient investors & speculative kaki. This is the doing of smart money. They collect when price is cheap & also when people are impatient.

My prediction is, after today's announcement, there might come another round of short-lived selling and interested parties will collect quietly and patiently. Once they feel the selling has dried up, then they surprise us with a sharp rise in stock price.

As mentioned earlier in my post, CNQC took over Sunley Holdings at HKD 0.80 the share price shot to HKD 3.70.

This is purely speculative but I believe CNQC has great big things planned for Vivocom, otherwise they won't waste their money in buying a company. If we only buy when everything is clear, by then, it will be too late to buy already after price has gone up.

A good investor always have to take calculated risk & able to make decision on scattered information.

At 13.5c buy, 14.0c sell, the downward risk is extremely limited as the lowest it went was 11.5c during July 2017, 12.5 in September 2017, and 12.0 in December when it formed a Doji.

So, the downside is 1.5c at most, which translate to about 11.11% downside risk from 13.5c, whereas the upside is really bright where sky is the limit.

@fl888, this 143M contract is a LOA not HOA. Means cannot simply terminate contract.

Termination of contract will result in penalty for LOA.

Whereas for HOA, it means both parties can terminate.

Why NOW is the time to buy Vivocom?

1. Definitive agreement signing is imminent - 90 days allowance for CNQC to sign definitive agreement falls on 13/1/2018, which is in 2 weeks time

2. January small cap effect - Small cap tend to rally in January after December sell off where investors lock in profit, as well as investors use bonus payout in December to buy in January.

3. Private Placement to finish by 31 May 2018. Means there will be inbound cash for the next 6 months.

4. Mindset that current pre-general election sentiment is weak has been proven wrong with so many counters reaching all time high and still on uptrend.

5. From the queue, price trend & volume point of view, it is prime for a breakout. The previous breakout happened when warrant C & D were staggered with buyers. The buy queue is extremely strong right now that is not 'disappearing' as the queue has been there for 3-4 weeks now.

6. Pre-election contracts give out. This is the norm. This happened in 2013 and I foresee the same thing happening in 2018, which is when election is due.

7. Main board market listing application & 2019/2020 dividend payout should be in the pipeline after CNQC's coming on board to show that they are serious about staying in Malaysia for long term

There is a saying ‘lightning never strikes twice’, well, not in the case of Vivocom. Lightning is about to strike hard and electrify Vivocom. I believe Vivocom’s share price will go back to its former glory once all the stars align (General Election over, CNQC signs definitive agreement, CNQC reveals their future plans for this acquisition).

The current market TP for Vivocom is 40c as analysed by MIDF. I think once all the pieces come into place, it will most likely supersede 40c. However, there is one condition, which is this counter is only suitable for long-term investors only, not for contra kaki or punters.

Vivocom, the once darling stock of Bursa, that went on a frenzy uptrend from 7.5c to 37c which lasted over a year back in 2015-2016, touched its all-time low at 11.5c in June 2017.

Despite the headwinds it faces, Vivocom is still a solidly traded counter with strong liquidity and following even with the current bearish outlook and weak market sentiment.

Say what you want but Vivocom is definitely no quitter. Matter of fact, the company is constantly endeavouring to transform itself to become a credible and respectable company, one that is fundamentally sound and profitable with a strong brand name. Looks like the Company may have embarked on a long term sustainable makeover of itself with its latest corporate exercise.

Just recently, the Company announced that CNQC International Holdings, a RM2.18 Billion company listed on main board of Hong Kong Stock Exchange will soon emerge to be its single largest shareholder, holding 970,266,423 or 28.63% of the company.

Notwithstanding the piece of exciting news, the share price of Vivocom did not soar as many would expect it to, perhaps due to the fact that many perceived the news of CNQC acquiring a 29% stake as just another MOU. The share went back from 11.5c to 15.5c then traded sideway, and subsequently 12.5c to 16c. The news did engender a temporary rally that was short-lived.

But herein lies the silver lining on Vivocom, on December 5th 2017, candlestick chart showed a morning doji star and its price has since gone up to 13.5c buy as contrast to 12.5c sell 3 days earlier with increased volume and showing no sign of any bearish attack. The temporary rally might not be temporary anymore. The dead cat bounce that we all think it was might just be a trend reversal.

In bursa’s current defensive state where everybody is paring down their exposure to embrace the coming General Election, it is worthwhile to recall a quote from the legendary investor, Warren Buffett. He said, ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’.

With all humility, I hold the view that Vivocom is a gem in the making and will once again be the darling of Bursa in the foreseeable future.

There are several reasons backing my opinion.

Firstly, if CNQC’s acquisition of Vivocom does indeed go through, it proves that it was not after all just another MOU. This also means that all the negative and unfavourable market rumours surrounding Vivocom’s management can be laid to rest once and for all because to complete its acquisition, CNQC must first conduct a thorough due diligence to comply with HKSE requirements. Without a shadow of doubt, they would most definitely have to engage one of the top four accounting and legal firms in the country to do a comprehensive commercial, financial and legal due diligence.

Secondly, Vivocom already has an established, fully functional operational base in Malaysia, this acquisition will complement CNQC’s plan to replicate their success in Singapore since 1999 in Malaysia. CNQC will share their technical knowledge with Vivocom and this might even improve their earning margins and their chances in bidding for contracts.

Common sense dictates that CNQC would not be wanting to waste both its time and money buying into Vivocom especially in the current weak economy. They must definitely have something big planned out.

There is a perception out there that Vivocom is a manipulated and controlled play by certain syndicates. I disagree because if it is a pump and dump, then the company would be game over long ago.

Instead, the Ace listed Company keeps on reinventing and transforming itself to become a much bigger, more credible business with a respected brand name and sustainable stream of recurring incomes on a long term basis.

From less than 100M shares from IPO days, back then known as iPower, then Instacom, until now as Vivocom more than 3B shares, its shares are still strong and super liquid

With latest news CNQC they have at last found a solid and genuine partner for a sustainable makeover.

Looking at CNQC’s takeover of Sunley Holdings, their shares shot up from HKD 0.80c to HKD 3.70, to stabilise at current level HKD 2.78

Will Vivocom be on the same price trend when CNQC confirmed become largest shareholder in a Vivocom? I think it is highly possible.

Let me share a picture on how ‘Smart Money’ operate.

At present price levels of below 16c, Vivocom is a steal as smart money and institutional investors are accumulating right now because they know with current outstanding shares, 3.5B shares by the time Macquarie finishes private placement, RM100M profit after tax would translate into RM0.40 price level at mere PE10x. That is 250% upside for them, with almost next to none downside.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/alexchin88/140920.jsp

It went from 12.5c sell to 13.5c buy in 3 days. Something must be going on. I'm guessing CNQC definitive agreement. Just guessing, no way to know for sure.

Last time not definitive also 16c, this time definitive agreement then it definitely will go higher. 20c maybe?

@ Darth

If CNQC comes in, it means that the management wasn't cheating any money because it first have to go through auditing firms.

I think 12.5c yesterday is bottom already. Last time not yet definitive agreement signing also 16c, if the definitive agreement goes through, it should go to 20c region and above logically.

CNQC been in Singapore since 1999 and has already established their name. This acquisition is a proxy for them to replicate their success in Malaysia

If the acquisition go through, this means that all the accounts in the company is clean and passed audits, no money go into own pocket or those nonsense.

You see CNQC stock price, it tripled after acquisition and stayed there. I think things like this may happen.

I think CNQC definitely have big plans for this acquisition. I guess we will just have to stay tuned to find out more. Winners are those who take calculated risk. At 13, 13.5c, your downside is extremely limited. Take care of your downside and the upside will take care of itself.

You can see at 10.05am, the bears have exited Vivocom. But it is supported by super duper strong bull. These bears' price is probably around 12.5c or 13.0c breakeven just to pare down their exposure. But they are probably still waiting around the corner getting ready to jump back onto the ship if they see the tide is turning.

Seems like the selling pressure like last time has gone to virtually none. An upward surge seems imminent

Early in the morning I got a call from my broker saying he heard rumours that Vivo gonna sign definitive agreement in the near term.

Then later on it really moved upwards. So maybe can hear a little bit.

Punters & traders maybe can try to play and see. Investors are probably better off staying sideline. From the looks of it, they might push upwards to 20c since the last time they signed it moved to 16c in order to break the downtrend triangle.

@curious2

I think the lowest price for tomorrow would have a gap opening to 15-16c, then it will trend higher and higher and very likely to hit 25c by the end of the week.

In the long term, I think it will easily be worth 50c.

Why do I say so? It's because Vivocom is now not just traders' stock but also investors' stock.

So at every price level, there are very strong support and this provides liquidity, which is #1 criteria to traders.

For investors, a company's fundamental is their #1 criteria. Vivocom's strong fundamental, along with CNQC's stake acquisition and its brand name and credential fulfill their criteria too.

That's why I think it's definitely a rocket going to be launched.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/alexchin88/135328.jsp

Today attended a stock market talk hosted by MNS.

I met a brilliant guy there who has been in stock market for 30 years. He gave me this analysis on Vivocom which I think is excellent and I just thought to share it with everybody.

He said, CNQC acquiring Vivocom and becoming the single biggest shareholder of the company of 30% stake signals that CNQC will be using Vivocom as a proxy to attack into Malaysian market. He said that the market talk is that there will be a name change from Vivocom into CNQC International (M) Holdings Berhad.

CNQC has been in Singapore since 1999 and he believes that they intend to stay in Malaysia for the long run.

CNQC also bought land in Singapore worth SGD 1.13B in 2016 and 2017. So it very logical and no doubt that they will do the same in Malaysia.

Looking at CNQC’s price chart, CNQC did an RTO into its current company, and its share price tripled in a year

During MNS Market Talk, speaker Dr. Thiti highlighted Vivo news to the audience at Kenanga Tower and another speaker Greg also talked about Vivocom at Cititel Midvalley.

Vivocom is in a very unique situation right now, because usually a blue chip investment grade stock is not loved by traders, but I believe Vivocom will attract all kinds of investors and traders. And in the long run (6-12 months), once Vivocom’s main market listing transfer has been approved, fund managers (local and foreign) will too start acquiring it.

I strongly believe in the short term, Vivocom will be trader’s darling stock, and its share price hitting double or more in the long term.

Well written. Solid points

Well written article by Sipekhuat. I think it will trend upwards in the immediate future too

I have said what I have to say. I believe in a year MYEG can achieve 2.50 - 3.00

Alibaba's expertise is not in e-government services.

We invest based on careful analysis of information and statistics. Otherwise it would be speculation.

If there are new guards / warlords come into picture, all that we know as of date would not be valid. Genting, Maybank, RHB, Hong Leong, Public Bank all might collapse half price or worse.

As of date, MYEG has first move advantage and also has good relationship with government, and has established themselves as stable company who can provide what they promise. This is not a reputation any company can build overnight. It took MYEG more than 10 years to build their reputation. If government were to find another player to share the pie, MYEG will still definitely get the lion share.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/06/01/analyst-reports/

In this, analyst from CIMB (CIMB covered MYEG since many many years ago and has been accurate so far) set TP 2.68 due to lower than expected illegal foreign worker registration and delay in GST Monitoring.

However it should be noted that these foreign workers registration have been given deadline of June 2017. Hence, the coming quarter's result should be fantastic.

Any weakness is an opportunity to collect.

But the final call to buy or not is yours.

Today a variation of doji appeared. A rebound to RM 2.20 - 2.30 is expected.

Why Tenaga is at PE10x is because Tenaga is a matured company established 68 years ago, hence its PE has been adjusted to its appropriate potential. Also Tenaga is 10x Market Cap of MYEG.

MYEG on the other hand has tremendous growth potential. Government is awarding multiple new contract to MYEG (Foreign Worker Permit Renewal awarded for RM 554m until 2020, 250,000 units of GST Monitoring system to be installed, Foreign worker accommodation to be made compulsory soon) and MYEG is also actively diversifying their businesses (CardBiz, e-commerce, E-Government services in Philippines).

Their growth will still be great for another few years until they hit their plateau, then the PE will come down.

MYEG is walking in the footsteps of giants like Hong Leong, Maybank, Public Bank, KLK. It will prove non-believers wrong and reward believers beautifully.

Definitely a good chance to buy.

GST Monitoring is up and running. 50,000 stores * RM 1,000 = 50m

Then Foreign Worker Renewal deadline is 30 June 2017 which will be translated into 500,000 * RM 100 = 50m.

All these will be translated into additional earnings in the coming quarterly result in August.

Minimum should be worth RM 2.30, optimistically RM 2.50, and blue sky scenario will be worth RM 3.00.

Wah beautiful news one after another. Earnings turn positive to 3m and then Rights Issue gets approved. TP 0.15 coming soon woooooohooooooooo

@sengkee

Rights Issue will issue approximately 2.0b instead of 2.5b, totaling 3.5b shares. According to the proposal for rights issue, it says it will be used for debt repayment and investment purposes. The company has bright future.

Look at how weak the sell queue is. This definitely means short term traders are all gone. Left with long term investors. When there is no more short term traders, the stock is easy to move up. Short term TP 0.15

There was some selldown today but it was very well absorbed. This means whoever that wanted to exit has exited for the past 11 days. With the bursa approval coming soon, it can only go up up up. Bought more 0.10 today. Short term TP 0.15

I believe this is a strongly positive news for MYEG

Record fine for harbouring 24 illegal immigrants

PUTRAJAYA: e Immigration Department of Malaysia (JIM) created a record in the Sepang Sessions Court on Wednesday when four local men were sentenced to a fine of RM480,000 for protecting 24 illegal immigrants, the heaviest penalty in JIM prosecution history, said JIM director-general Datuk Seri Mustafar Ali.

In a statement yesterday, he said two Bangladeshi men who were charged jointly with the four Malaysians were each sentenced to 20 years’ jail and three strokes of the rotan, which was also the most severe punishment ever meted out by the court for an offence under the Immigration Act.

“The fine is the highest ever imposed in JIM prosecution history under Section 55E (1) of the Immigration Act 1959/1963, read with Section 34 of the Penal Code.

“Failure to pay the fine may result in a nine-year jail term for the four Malaysians,” he added.

Mustafar said the four Malaysians and two Bangladeshis had commit- ted an offence by permitting 24 illegal immigrants to enter and remain in a premises under their care.

“All the accused were found to have knowledge that the people who were brought into Malaysia were prohibited immigrants, pursuant to Section 8 of the Immigration Act 1959/63,” he said.

Section 55E of the Immigration Act refers to an offence in permit- ting illegal immigrants to enter or stay in a place where the person is having charge, management or control of the premises.

The penalty prescribed under this section shall be a fine of not less than RM5,000 but not exceeding RM30,000 or imprisonment not exceeding 12 months or both. — Bernama

C25. Always follow the wave never swim against the tide. C25 is currently in play and C26 is in idle mode.

Amy1988, thanks for your opinions! They are most welcomed.

1. I too think that EPF's 200k shares long is insignificant. However, it's a start after selling for 17 straight sessions. I think it's a sign. Albeit a premature one.
2. -
3. Analysts' targets has been met in first quarter. The coming quarter, if a good one, would cause a significant rerating on SKPETRO and have a sensational rally.
4. Absolutely agreed.
5. Well said.

Oil price's weakness will not remain as Saudi and many other middle eastern countries depends on oil income heavily.

If oil price is depressed over the long term, these countries would face a significant deficit in budget and would liquidate their foreign investments positions as evident and they will lose significant money as well as going into dangerous deficit level for their country.

The ruler of Saudi along with their big bulge investment bankers are smart and understand the game so they won't let this happen.

On a more macroeconomy scale,

Federal reserve is likely to hold the current rate, hence causing USD to fall and make it cheaper to buy oil and hence demand for oil would increase.

In addition to that, China's economy is reviving and is likely to increase demand for oil in the near term.

If everything goes well, the increase in oil demand would means higher demand for engineering works, drilling, oil exploration and maintenance, which means more contracts to be won by SapuraKencana.

With oil price currently rallying and soaring towards $50

Saudi and Russia agreed to work together to come up with a plan of pushing oil price higher

Iran agreed to work together with OPEC to limit their oil production at 4 million barrels per day

OPEC meeting coming up end of this month

Having an order book of RM20bil, and bidding for another RM7bil

Fundamentally this company is concrete solid

Technical analysis wise, a golden cross has appeared with its 20 days EMA crossing 50days and 70 days SMA

MACD will be crossing very soon

EPF turned net buyer for the first time on 6th September after selling for 17 straight previous market sessions.

A catalyst like the coming quarterly result due in 2 weeks or OPEC meeting comes up with a plan to reduce oil production or a contract win would push Sapura up sky high.

Current immediate resistance is at RM1.60 which is due to be broken very very soon. Once broken, the next major resistance would be at RM1.80

It seems like something is brewing in C25