gone case tomorrow

qr havent released. see tonight fcpo can hit 4100 or not. not logic that with this fcpo cannot fly, most of palm oil stock show good qr

FCPO had surpass 4000 when open at morning.

therefore, if average tin price able to sustained at 30k above. next qr result will be great.

Qr result released, good result.
increase of usd1k in average tin price, double MSC profit from previous qr 9M (average tin price 25k) to 18M (average tin price 26k).

LMEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
LMEarrow
Latest:33,685
+234 (+0.70%)
time
May 24, 2024 18:37:43

IB is playing around, selling 1 lot and 1 lot.

Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains for the third session in a row, hovering near MYR 3,940 after briefly attempting to hit a 4-week top of around MYR 3,960, supported by bets of higher shipments as Malaysia will host Palm Oil Forum in Egypt next week. The event aims at showcasing products to potential buyers from the African nation, the largest importer of palm oil in the region. In top buyer India, purchases of the commodity soared 41% last month to a three-month peak. Limiting the bullish traction were lower soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade. Also, signs of rising production grew, as evidenced by a 56% jump in palm oil production for May 1-15, according to the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association. Meanwhile, crude oil prices extended their falls, with traders continuing to assess the latest developments in the Middle East, particularly after the death of Iranian President in a helicopter crash and emerging health conditions of Saudi Arabia’s elderly king

good closing
FCPO 3964 MYRD
+43
+1.10%
At close at May 20, 23:29 UTC+8

indeed and agreed, KCLow,
it is possible rm6 (duration?) with good qr and climbing tin price.
huat ah!

GreenMiner, what is your view on Indonesia new president and policy.
https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2024/05/11/new-indonesia-pm-prabowos-brother-building-batam-tin-processing-plant-to-supply-electronics-sector

https://www.mining.com/web/tin-prices-may-see-further-support-from-supply-risks-rate-cuts-analysts-say/

something to read for bigger picture

will qr out today after 5pm, had that feeling and price action suggested

i guess its should sustained. tin price still at 34k, and dividend exit date is after the good Qr result release. let have a look at Qr result, it is possible to limit up.

any prediction on coming Qr release on, perhap friday?

there are possibility of fcpo rebound high due to rival oil price increase due to disaster in brazil

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-soy-output-top-farm-state-may-drop-15-amid-torrential-rains-2024-05-03/

having fate and analysis sometime go hand in hand. however, you need to know the reason, why OMH will perform way way better than Q1.
one of the reason is the eletricity which is cost 30-50% of the end product is already been paid.
2nd, manganese price shot up almost 50% due to the south 32 port disruption.
which mean, we are looking at ultra high margin from SiMn smelter.
this havent include that OMH own stake in manganese mine in Africa.

FCPO rebound to 3930 MYR (+68
+1.76%)

www.internationaltin.org/alphamin-announces-increased-earnings-on-sales-recovery/

can use as reference.

is it going to good quarter? glove counter had the tendency to sell on QR release.

possible spike due to manganese shortage

Against the backdrop of the London tin squeeze, Shanghai tin followed the rise with little adjustment. Today, spot tin was raised by 4,000 yuan to 255,750 yuan. The overnight premium of LME from 0 to 3 months quickly expanded to 350 US dollars. Shanghai tin is currently in the high range of 250,000 to 290,000, and volatility has increased. The overseas market digests the risk of squeeze in the LME market in May. Concentrated long and high speculative holdings, coupled with the outflow of London tin inventories during the year and the temporary loss of LME delivery qualifications of two domestic registered brands, pushed up tin prices. Compared with the nickel market in March 22, domestic tin inventories are high. Although domestic and foreign prices themselves do not support export profits, the manual link of large factories may be possible. London tin technically has a potential to 35,000

https://www.mining.com/web/indonesian-tin-miner-timah-receives-export-permit-of-30000-tons-for-2024/

With the recovery of the global semiconductor cycle, the rapid development of AI, the wave of intelligent electric vehicles, the continued growth of photovoltaic installed capacity, and the vigorous development of the digital economy in China's new productive forces, the center of tin demand growth will continue to shift upward. On the resource and supply side, tin is extremely rigid. The global reserve-to-production ratio is only 14.8 years. In addition, the grades of major mines have continued to decline in recent years, and the problem of resource depletion is prominent. The Wa State region of Myanmar, which accounts for more than 12% of global tin ore production, has completely suspended production since August 1, 2023. The impact of the reduction in production caused by the long-term suspension of production has gradually emerged. Domestic tin ore processing fees continue to decline, and the "mine tightness" is Acting towards "Ingot Reduction"

SHFE TIN finally break 230k yuan.
232120 (+4210, 1.85%)

remember the cross trade few days ago. start seeing multiple selling at 10-12lot to pull down the price systematically

Latest:28,835
+577 (+2.04%)
time
Mar 18, 2024 09:56:51

it just getting started. tin price is just a gauge of how much MSC profit going to benefit from. if tin price shoot up to 30k and sustained until end of the year. i believe someone posted before, the gain would be how much

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/tin-supply-trapped-resource-nationalism-squeeze-2024-03-12/

Even assuming a speedy resumption of Indonesian exports and mining in Myanmar, tin supply over the next few months looks challenging.
The longer-term threat is of future supply disruption as resource nationalism drives both governments further down the road of export controls.
Tin's use as a circuit-board solder makes it a critical mineral both for the current generation of electronics and the coming internet of things.
Yet it is one with an incredibly fragile supply chain, beholden to the politics of Indonesia and the United Wa State Army.
This year's supply squeeze may be just a taster of things to come for tin.

for me, this is a clear signal.

finally SMM Tin (223490, +2.1%) start to correlate with LME tin

finally break 28k and still strong.

LMEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
Latest:28,090
+570 (+2.07%)
time
Mar 14, 2024 09:12:04
Prev.Close
27,520
Volume
14
Month
Mar 14
Open
28,005
Settlement
N/A
Contact Size
5t.
Day's Range
28,005 - 28,090

like you said, KClow. MSC momentum quite strong

cross trade appear for the 1000lot at 3.40 pm.

here is a much detail with more fact, on the situation, but still relevant.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/tin-prices-rebound-on-supply-threats-positive-demand-outlook/article67920393.ece

Tin futures traded around $27,100 per tonne, marking a three-week high due to supply threats and a positive demand outlook. A near cessation of exports in January occurred due to delays in approving annual mine work plans in Indonesia, a decline from the 6,000 tons recorded in the preceding month. Despite a partial resumption of mining in Myanmar's Wa State, which had been banned in August 2023, uncertainties persist, posing supply risks. This region contributes 70% of Myanmar's tin output, making it the world's third-largest tin producer and a significant supplier to China. The global tin market is projected to shift from a surplus of 6,000 tons in the previous year to a deficit of 5,000 tons in 2024. On the demand side, rising sales in semiconductors and technology, especially in AI and automotive chips, are expected to bolster tin prices, supported by increased global demand for semiconductors

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/tin

this actually depend on demand. because tin price had always fluctuated due to supply. its the demand that push it into higher and continuous trend.

if the scenario play out, indonesia wont be able to catch up to meet production in 2024. same goes with Myammar Wa Region. Australia had the potential to rise as new player, high grade tin with a stable geopolitical, however that would still take 1-2 year to get it online.

there are still uncertainty. Man Maw mines (the biggest) still not yet operate back, rumors said April 24, 2 mth to restart operation, then June only start fully operate. meanwhile, indonesia try to settle their permit renewal issue, target end of March. Peru side, i no idea. but tin storage level in china is reducing

in short, we are looking at tighter supply (myammar and indonesia) and higher demand (AI demand and semicon recovery 2024).

this is much update news. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesian-export-slump-ripples-through-tin-market-2024-02-20/

https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report-international/chinas-tin-supply-tightens-as-myanmar-region-raises-export-tax

normally, around end of feb.

Myanmar impose 30% cash tax on all export tin. Indonesia Nov 23 export reduce 15% compare to previous year.

seem like a good time to enter, furnace maintainance all complete. commodity price on rebound.

sudden peak in tin price today

LMEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
LME
Latest:26,190
+487 (+1.89%)

Sep 18, 2023 14:44:39