With Fed tapering around the corner, will there be another selldown by foreign funds in the Asian markets?

Careful now!

China's manufacturing activity expanded in November but at a slower pace than October, a survey from HSBC showed on Thursday.

The HSBC flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.4 from a seven-month high of 50.9 in October, staying above the key 50-mark which separates expansion from contraction.

Will AA close above 2.50? Time will tell!

With tapering on the Fed agenda again, that immediately sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury above 2.79 percent, a level it was last at on Sept. 18, the day the Fed surprised markets by not moving to taper back its $85 billion bond-buying program. Since the strong October jobs report, markets have suspected the Fed could move as early as December.

The dollar rose and gold was pounded, falling 2.3 percent. The Dow fell 66 to 15,900 and the S&P 500 was off 6 at 1,781.

Careful now folks as a massive selldown by foreign funds will cause turmoil in the EMs & weaken their curencies!

The Fed Reserve looks set to move sooner rather than later to taper back its bond buying, once more surprising markets that have been repeatedly confused about when the Fed will begin to step back from its extraordinary easing policy.

Treasury yields ripped higher Wednesday and stocks fell after minutes from the Fed's October meeting revealed that central bank officials felt that they could decide to start scaling back their quantitative easing bond buying at one of its next few meetings, depending on economic growth.

Will there be another turmoil & selldown in the EMs? Careful now, folks!

CIMB

- AirAsia may suffer fare deflation for at least the next two years as the current heavy competition could prevent it from passing through to passengers the 9% rise in landing charges from January 2014 onwards, the impending 9-11% rise in airport passenger service charges in February and the 6% GST from April 2015 onwards.

If a business does well, the stock eventually follows! How now?

CIMB

- The net effect was that the better on-year overall associate performance helped temper, but could not completely overcome, the pressure on Malaysia.

Investors become emotionally attached to a stock and overlook the company's shortcomings. Whatever the reason loving a stock, separate your emotions from the hard reality! How?

CIMB

- The base yield decline in 3Q13 had accelerated from the 10.6% on-year fall for 2Q13. The weakness in Malaysia was augmented by the collapse in Indonesia’s bottomline as yields also fell from competition and the rupiah depreciated.

A small leak can sink a GREAT ship!

CIMB

- The key Malaysia earnings fell 22% on-year on the back of a 12.2% fall in base yield as competition hit hard, coupled with a 3.8% weakening of the ringgit, which lifted AirAsia‟s substantial US$ cost base.

Investors have short memories!

CIMB

- Yield pressure will persist in 2014 as Malaysia Airlines (MAS) is intent on defending its market share.

Remember folks, buy low & sell higher!!

CIMB
- Due to yield pressure, it accounted for just half of our previous full-year forecast against a more typical 55%-60%.

Rememberfolks, buy low & sell higher!!

21/11/2013 TP 2.55 CIMB (latest)
14/11/2013 TP 3.63 RHB
28/10/2013 TP 3.51 Kenanga
03/10/2013 TP 2.90 HWANGDBS
27/09/2013 TP 4.20 ALLIANCE
24/09/2013 TP 3.91 TA
22/08/2013 TP 3.94 RHB
22/08/2013 TP 3.78 MIDF
22/08/2013 TP 2.95 MAYBANK
22/08/2013 TP 3.51 KENANGA
22/08/2013 TP 2.90 HWANGDBS
22/08/2013 TP 3.08 HLG
22/08/2013 TP 3.45 CIMB
22/08/2013 TP 2.80 AMMB
16/08/2013 TP 3.94 RHB
21/06/2013 TP 3.94 RHB
23/05/2013 TP 3.94 RHB

What say you, folks?

QZ 8457 20/11/2013 09:30 PM BANDUNG-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8295 20/11/2013 09:20 PM SURABAYA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 1061 20/11/2013 09:10 PM NANNING-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8208 20/11/2013 08:45 PM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8206 20/11/2013 07:35 PM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8451 20/11/2013 05:45 PM BANDUNG-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 1035 20/11/2013 02:45 PM GUILIN-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8397 20/11/2013 12:30 PM DENPASAR-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 1337 20/11/2013 12:15 PM SOLO CITY-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8393 20/11/2013 11:10 AM DENPASAR-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8291 20/11/2013 09:50 AM SURABAYA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8113 20/11/2013 09:45 AM U. PADANG-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

D7 0173 20/11/2013 07:25 AM JEDDAH-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8458 20/11/2013 10:05 PM KUALA LUMPUR-BANDUNG CANCELLED

QZ 8296 20/11/2013 09:45 PM KUALA LUMPUR-SURABAYA CANCELLED

QZ 8209 20/11/2013 09:15 PM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED

QZ 8207 20/11/2013 08:20 PM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED

QZ 8452 20/11/2013 06:15 PM KUALA LUMPUR-BANDUNG CANCELLED

AK 1060 20/11/2013 01:10 PM KUALA LUMPUR-NANNING CANCELLED

QZ 8398 20/11/2013 01:00 PM KUALA LUMPUR DENPASAR CANCELLED

QZ 8394 20/11/2013 11:40 AM KUALA LUMPUR-DENPASAR CANCELLED

QZ 8292 20/11/2013 10:15 AM KUALA LUMPUR-SURABAYA CANCELLED

QZ 8112 20/11/2013 10:10 AM KUALA LUMPUR-U. PADANG CANCELLED

Can be viewed here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

AirAsia's Q3 profit sinks 77.5 pct on forex losses, competition
*************************************************

AA third-quarter profit plunge 77.5 per cent as forex losses on borrowings and a strategy of offering low ticket fares ate into margins.

Net profit for the three months ended Sept 30 fell to 35.8 million ringgit ($11.22 million) from 157.8 million ringgit in the same period last year.

Foreign exchange losses stood 185.9 million ringgit in the third quarter, compared to a gain of 100.8 million ringgit a year ago.

The company's average fare in Malaysia during the quarter fell 12 per cent from a year ago, to support an 11 per cent increase in passenger volumes.

Optimism is denial, so face the facts and move on. It is wise to direct your anger towards problems not people, to focus your energies on answers not excuses. Remember folks, buy low & sell higher!

Cheers!!

Higher fuel costs, interest charges and foreign exchange losses dragged down its third-quarter net profit sharply by more than fourfold from a year earlier. No dividend was recommended by the BODs.

Folks almost 52% of AA shares held by foreigners! How will they react when market opened tomorrow? Hmmmmmm..........!!

Hahahahahahahahahah!! Cheers folks!!

Pity to those buying & stuck at a much higher price. In a desperate move seem that those stuck are encouraging other to buy in order to cushion the fall.

Will this be enough to stop AA from falling further? Remember folks, knowing typhoon ahead will you follow them?

Wait for the weather to clam down for a smooth journey to your destination. Be patience & you will be rewarded!! Is the price trading more toward making a new year low? Time will tell!

Price Performamce:

01 month
High: 2.92 (22/10/13)
Low : 2.48 (19/11/13) Yesterday!

12 months
High: 3.54 (05/06/13)
Low : 2.44 (28/08/13)

Historical High: Rm4.00

Are you buying a disaster on its way down thinking you are averaging your costs? Going to be an expnesive lesson though!

Remember folks, risk comes from not knowing what you're doing! Hahahah!!

Folks, AA is lowering its airfares to sustain loads, to raise awareness and stimulate demand. Thus, yields expected to drop, attributed to intensifying competition from Malindo Air and Malaysian Airline System.

So will Q3E be good? Investors have short memories!!

Can AA rally continue? Remember folks, shares of stock lose value when company profits drop. Will the Q3E be good, bad or ugly?

Folks, with probably bad Q3 earnings will AA be able to close above 2.50? A small leak can sink a GREAT ship!

Investors have short memories!! Hahahahahahahaha!!

Price Performamce:

01 month
High: 2.92 (22/10/13)
Low : 2.46 (19/11/13)

03 months
High: 2.97 (21/08/13)
Low : 2.44 (28/08/13)

12 months
High: 3.54 (05/06/13)
Low : 2.44 (28/08/13)

Historical High: Rm4.00

Folks, investors become emotionally attached to a stock and overlook the company's shortcomings. Whatever the reason loving a stock, separate your emotions from the hard reality. Q3E will be below expectation!

The stock relentless tendency to regress towards its long-term mean. Will 2.50 hold? Hmmmmmm........!!

Forex losses eat into AirAsia X profit!

Will AA be able to defend itself from forex losses? Remember folks with weak ringgit, foreign airport charges, maintenance, fuel, financing & etc will be on the increase!

So how?

Folks, every attempt by an airline to offer very free or low ticket prices is usually a very bad which is not sustainable. Remember folks, AA is not a charitable organization as it is a profit oriented company.

So with so much promotions done in the 3Q, will AA be able to turn the free or low ticket prices into dollar & cent?

Remember folks, the verdict will be out soon. Careful now!

Folks, AA's larger rival, MAS, which this week reported a Q3 net loss from a profit a year ago, said its yields and prices were pressured by competition.

Will AA be spared from acrimonious competition? You will know by 5pm. Careful now!

Folks, due to the stiff fares competition some routes go down to 'doomsday fares', especially Kuala Lumpur to Sabah, Sarawak and to Singapore. Even AA can't make money this way!

So how? The beginning of the end? Hope not cos we as the customer gain from the competitive air fares! Right folks?

AA going to show a weakness on a year-to-year basis. A big portion of their earnings are domestic and this is subjected to acrimonious competition, so a huge decline in third-quarter profit.

Will the Q3E be good, bad or ugly? I believe going to be "bad"! Hehehehehe!!

Can AA stay above 2.50?

Analysts expect net profit in the third-quarter to decline again as costs remain a drag. Worst still AA is spending big to set up a unit in India with Tata Group, where taxes make jet fuel costs among the world's most expensive.

So how?

Folks, AA's net profit has fallen for the first two quarters by 40 percent and 62 percent year-on-year, largely due to the price war in Malaysia.

So will the Q3E be good, bad or ugly? Careful now!

AirAsia's profit margins are expected to fall to 10.4 percent in 2013 from 15.7 percent a year earlier, Thomson Reuters data shows.

So how?

Maybank analyst Mohshin Aziz forecast the Indonesian unit, AirAsia's third-largest by passenger volume, will take another four quarters to contribute to overall profits as it struggles to fend off competition from Lion Air and Garuda.

Another 4 quarters to profits? By that time interest rate will be high after the fed taper! So how? Another 4 years to profit meh?

Competition is also affecting AirAsia's Indonesia and Philippines units, which have yet to reverse combined losses of 203 million ringgit as of the second quarter.

What about in the 3Q? Remember folks, a small leak can sink a GREAT ship!

Malaysia's AirAsia Bhd will take up to two years to realise a profit from its Indonesia and Philippine units, income that would help prop up eroding margins as Asia's largest budget carrier wages a price war at home.

AirAsia, which has dominated budget air travel in Asia with explosive growth, is now struggling to boost earnings in its biggest market, Malaysia, where rivals such as national carrier Malaysian Airline System (MAS) and Malindo Airways are slashing fares.

So the big question folks, will the Q3E below expectation? Careful now!

Long-haul budget airline AirAsia X Bhd's net profit tumbled 46% to RM26.44 million for its third quarter ended Sept 30, 2013 (Q3FY13) from RM48.86 million a year ago, due to net foreign exchange loss of RM23.98 million, finance cost of RM21.8 million and higher staff cost.

So how will the Q3E be for AA? Good, bad or ugly? Heheheheheheh!!

A few analysts have even noted that this scenario is similar to the Asian Financial Crisis back in 1997, which brought many countries in Asia to their knees.

A variety of circumstances led to this crisis, but the end result for most countries was quite similar. Confidence in local currencies plummeted as central banks were unable to defend their respective currencies.

When this occurred, many companies suddenly found themselves struggling to pay off foreign denominated loans. Companies could come under pressure if interest rates and the value of the dollar increase.

If interest rates and the value of the dollar were to climb at the same time, foreign companies may find themselves hard pressed to repay their dollar denominated loans.

Interest rates will rise, making the cost and burden of the loan much higher.

Meanwhile, the dollar could strengthen versus other currencies, making it harder for foreign companies to repay dollar denominated loans with their local currencies.

Firms across Asia are rushing to take out loans in foreign currencies while interest rates are low. By the end of October the value of these loans had jumped some 52% to 36 billion dollars. Some worry, however, that these foreign currency loans could pose systemic risks for financial systems across the region.

AA Total Debt mostly dominated in USD:
(2Q13) Rm8.813b
(1Q13) Rm8.464b

Asian companies are being drawn to the low interest loans being offered in USD and other currencies. With the U.S Fed looking to continue quantitative easing in the near future, interest rates will likely remain low. Most loans being offered, however, feature floating interest rates, so rates could increase dramatically once the government eases off its Q.E. programs and looks to raise its benchmark interest rates.

More complicated still, when the U.S does wind down its quantitative easing program, it could cause the value of the dollar to rise over time. As the U.S continued to increase the money supply in order to increase liquidity, some analysts have concluded that the value of the dollar has been artificially suppressed. When the U.S reverses course, the money supply will no longer be growing, which should increase the value of the dollar over the long haul.

By then will it be cheap for companies with USD dominated borrowings? Hahahahahah!!

Folks, of course stock is cheap for a reason and will stay cheap for months or years to come as it slumping profit margins remain a problem for stock market.

So how will Q3E be? Good, bad or ugly?

Will the rally continue? Can AA stay above 2.50? Time will tell!

Can the rally continue? Careful now, risk comes from not knowing what you're doing!

What will the Q3 earnings be?

A: Good

B: Bad

C: Ugly

I will tick "B"! How about you, folks?

Can the rally continue? Time to buy? Time will tell! Careful now!! Hahahahahahaha!!

Will AA close above 2.50? Time will tell!

Remember folks, a small leak can sink a GREAT ship!!

QZ 8457 19/11/2013 09:30 PM BANDUNG-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8295 19/11/2013 09:20 PM SURABAYA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8208 19/11/2013 08:45 PM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5173 19/11/2013 08:40 PM LABUAN-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8451 19/11/2013 05:45 PM BANDUNG-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8162 19/11/2013 04:15 PM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5873 19/11/2013 03:35 PM SIBU-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8397 19/11/2013 12:30 PM DENPASAR-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8393 19/11/2013 11:10 AM DENPASAR-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8291 19/11/2013 09:50 AM SURABAYA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8458 19/11/2013 10:05 PM KUALA LUMPUR-BANDUNG CANCELLED

QZ 8296 19/11/2013 09:45 PM KUALA LUMPUR-SURABAYA CANCELLED

QZ 8209 19/11/2013 09:15 PM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED

QZ 8452 19/11/2013 06:15 PM KUALA LUMPUR-BANDUNG CANCELLED

QZ 8163 19/11/2013 04:40 PM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED

QZ 8398 19/11/2013 01:00 PM KUALA LUMPUR-DENPASAR CANCELLED

QZ 8394 19/11/2013 11:40 AM KUALA LUMPUR-DENPASAR CANCELLED

D7 0172 19/11/2013 11:30 AM KUALA LUMPUR-JEDDAH CANCELLED

QZ 8292 19/11/2013 10:15 AM KUALA LUMPUR-SURABAYA CANCELLED

Can be viewed here:
http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

Posted by bullbear > Nov 19, 2013 05:12 PM | Report Abuse

Profit after tax as announced:
(2Q13) Rm58.348m
(1Q13) Rm104.793m

Folks, without gain Rm78.265 on disposal of interest in AA Japan to the rescue for the 2Q, AA profit after tax will be -Rm19.917m!

So what next to the rescue in the Q3E? Remember folks, a small leak can sink a GREAT ship, Careful now!

Profit after tax as announced:
(2Q13) Rm58.348m
(1Q13) Rm104.793m

Folks, without gain Rm78.265 on disposal of interest in AA Japan to the rescue for the 2Q, AA profit after tax will be -Rm19.917m!

So what next to the rescue of AA in the Q3E?

AA is lowering its airfares to sustain loads & raise awareness and stimulate demand. Thus, we expect yields to drop, attributed to intensifying competition.

Shares of stock lose value when company profits drop or investors believe that company profits will drop.

So will the Q3 earnings be poor? Is the stock price going on relentless tendency to regress towards its long-term mean? To make new low? Time will tell!

There you go folks, my earlier posting on TF twitt!! Did you buy base on this twitt? What a pity!



""AirAsia Group CEO Tony Fernandes, on his Twitter account, stated (04-Nov-2013): "Just finalised 3rd quarter numbers. Very pleased. 4th quarter looks very very strong. Costs down as well. 2014 going to be a big year."

Folks, read between the lines:

1. "Just finalised 3rd quarter numbers" twitting about Airasia Group 3Q 2013 Preliminary Operation Statictics. Do you what that is? Google search please...Heheheheh!! Remember folks, the 3Q13 results will also be pressured by the appreciation of the US$ vs. ringgit, which raised aircraft leasing charges, overflying charges, maintenance costs and debt expense. Jet fuel price was also high.

2. "4Q13 looks very very strong" meaning giving an impression that Oct is good. Anything can happen in the month of Nov & Dec 2013 like typhoon Haiyan, stiff fair competition, Fed tapering will trigger another selldown in the Ems & etc! Remember folks, if a business does well, the stock eventually follows!

3. "2014 going to be a big year." Really...really! Aviation industry is full of risk factors & uncertainties e.g. war, climate, political risks, operational risks, procurement risks, stiff competition, industry consolidation, interest rate fluctuations, high jet fuel pice, infectious sickness, financial turmoil & etc. Remember folks, in the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield!

Important point folks, MAS statistics give cause for concern. Cabin load and demand numbers for 3Q13 were astonishingly high, foretelling weak results for both MAS and AirAsia as yields must have been slashed to produce the phenomenal passenger volumes. Only MAHB was smiling & has declared a single-tier interim dividend of 6% for the financial year ending December 31,2013.

Hence, 3Q results for both AirAsia and MAS are expected to be poor. Just wait and see!""

1Q13
MYR vs USD: Rm3.01-Rm3.12
Crude Oil : $91-$99
AA Profit : Rm104.793m

2Q13
MYR vs USD: Rm2.96-Rm3.22
Crude Oil : $88-$98
AA Profit : Rm58.348m (actually a LOSS of Rm19.917m without AA Japan sale gains)

3Q13
MYR vs USD: Rm3.16-Rm3.33
Crude Oil : $92-$111
AA Profit : Good, Bad or Ugly?

Pity to those stuck at a high price. An expensive lesson though! Now you know risk comes from not knowing what you're doing!

When investing is to use your head & not to follow your emotions! So how now, folks?

Late Sep 2012, Tune bought a total 68,030,000 shares at average rm2.91 per share = Rm197,727,720.00 when the stock took the beating after the announcement of Malindo.

Now the big question, why Tune is not on buying spree again since the share price is cheap? Maybe it will get even cheaper in the comings days. Remember folks, when a business does well, the stock eventually follows!

Folks, of course stock is cheap for a reason and will stay cheap for years to come as it slumping profit margins remain a problem for stock market. So how now?