AirAsia has other problems to contend with in India. This may be a bad time to launch a new airline here. Growth has plummeted; the rupee is at an all-time low; oil prices have been higher than usual and may well go higher; and the all-round mood of gloom and doom has become more real than imagined.

Aiyoyoyoyoyoyooo......how now?

Another twist in the tale was added when the Tata group announced that it intended to set up a full-service airline in India in partnership with Singapore Airlines, with a 51 per cent stake in the venture. Since the group also has a stake (30 per cent) in the proposed airline with AirAsia, many feel there could be a conflict of interest. India’s aviation policy is, however, silent on the matter of investment by one promoter in two carriers.

So how?

Folks, then came the PIL bombshell. The point that the petition sought to raise was, in fact, pointed out by the civil aviation ministry at the time of FIPB clearance: that the FDI policy permits investment only in existing airlines and not in greenfield ones. However, perhaps in an attempt to appear pro-investment, the proposal was cleared by the finance, commerce and civil aviation ministers.

Now, it would appear that the chickens have come home to roost because Swamy’s plea is correct in theory, say senior government officials.

You want to know about the damage, folks?

The airline is undecided about launch dates, though all indications are for a December-January launch.

Pilots and cabin crew have already been sent for training to AirAsia’s headquarters in Malaysia, and around two dozen employees have been sitting in a cramped space within the Chennai airport planning the eventual launch and giving the final touches to the fledgling operation.

The team is waiting patiently for security clearance from the home ministry — a lengthy process.

What next, folks?

Hahahahahahahahahahaha!!

Folks, on 18 September, the Delhi High Court’s acceptance of the public interest litigation (PIL) came as a rude shock to the new venture. The court asked the ministries of finance, commerce and civil aviation, the Director General of Civil Aviation and AA to respond.

The petition argues that the government in September 2012 allowed foreign airlines to invest in Indian carriers already in operation.

And since neither AA, the Tatas nor Telstra (the other partner) is operating an airline in India as of now, the clearance does not stand.

There were murmurs on this count when the proposal was cleared in March, but those were ignored. But then Swamy took the matter to court.

The litigation (PIL) didn’t stop the NOC from coming through, but it did cause damage.

Care to share what the damage is, folks?

Folks, about a month before the original proposed date of launch, six months after the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) gave its clearance, and one day before receiving a no-objection certificate (NOC) from the aviation ministry, AA India, the Tatas and AA Berhad’s chief Tony Fernandes got a rude shock.

While the partners probably did not expect the clearances to be quick, they also did not anticipate the Delhi High Court to accept the public interest litigation (PIL) filed by Subramanian Swamy against the FIPB clearance.

Heheheheheheheh!!

Indian DGCA to investigate near-miss at IGI airport

The Indian aviation safety regulator Thursday initiated an inquiry into procedural lapses that could have caused a collision between a passenger aircraft and an Indian Air Force plane at the IGI airport.

According to a senior official with the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), an investigation has been ordered into the incident that occurred Wednesday afternoon around 2.30 p.m.

The official said the investigation will look into the incident in which a Go Air's Airbus A320 aircraft was taking off for Mumbai and saw an Indian Air Force plane crossing the same runway.

The IAF plane which landed from Chandigarh was crossing the same runway to reach the technical area.

What next...hmmmmmmmmmm?

Employees Provident Fund Board: Disposed 30/09/2013 293,000

Will the selling continue? Time will tell!

Tq. I will take that as a compliment. Good bye bro! Hahahahahahahahahah!!

Folks lastest from HWANGDBS on AA: HOLD rm2.60 while TP rm2.90, reason: Competition in home market.

What is a Hold definition, folks?
Total return is expected to be between -15% and +15% over the next 12 months.

So will it be -15% or +15%? Well folks, the 3QE will be announced later this month! Careful now. A small leak can sink a GREAT ship!

Folks, for the remainder of 2013 yields will continue to be weak as the airlines battle for market share supremacy .

Ticket prices on selected routes (e.g Kuala Lumpur to Kota Kinabalu, Kuching, Miri, Penang) are the cheapest ever in living memory and most probably they are priced below cost. Consumers are spoilt for choice and never having it better.

An addition, cost pressure is intensifying, with airlines facing multiple cost headwinds in the form of rising fuel cost, weakening MYR against the USD and rising interest rates which will raise aircraft financing cost.

Furthermore, competition for manpower is intensifying and this has fueled wage inflation among the skilled labour force.

All these factors contribute negatively to the airlines in maintaining profitability and which are finding it difficult to pass on the rising cost to customers.

So will the rally continue? Will AA be profitable for this coming 3rd quarter? Time will tell!

Overall, in terms of average revenue per passenger, Malaysia Airports Holdings has experienced a decline of 4.7 per cent y-o-y.

This was due to the change in domestic versus international passenger mix profile. In 2Q13, international passenger made up 47.6 per cent of total passenger mix, which is a 0.7 percentage point decline from the same period last year.

This passenger profile is influential because international passenger’s airport service charge is 7.2 times higher than domestic passengers.

Overall, the profit generated by the Malaysian aviation industry in 1H13 was generally below Maybank IB reseqarch & consensus expectation.

On an industry wide basis, it was still loss making and this was primarily due to MAS’ huge losses. So how will AA perform for the 2H13? Careful now as AA 3QE announcement is just around the corner!

Folks, the yeild for AA & MAS decline is unlikely to abate anytime soon. Under normal circumstances, yield declines are limited to three to five per cent during bad times.

AA and MAS’ hefty yield decline is reminiscent of an industry calamity, much in the likes of 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis and 2003 SARS pandemic.

Believe it or not that Malindo Air is the catalyst for the fare war and yield erosion in the industry. Small but sting like a bee! Good for us, right? Hahahahahahahahaha!

AirAsia, as the official sponsor of the Volleyball Association of Thailand, joins in congratulating the Thai Women's Volleyball team on their triumph in the 2013 Asia Championship by gifting them and their coaches with "Free Flights on All AirAsia Routes for One Year".

There you go!

AirAsia X has launched a Buy 1, Free 1 promotion which offers fares from as low as MYR449 for 2 travellers in Economy, and MYR1,698 in Premium from Kuala Lumpur to Australia (Perth, Gold Coast, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide), China (Chengdu, Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai,), Nepal (Kathmandu), Japan (Osaka), and Korea (Busan)

With Buy 1, Free 1 promotion you can fly from 30 Oct 2013 – 23 Jan 2014. The booking period is from now – 1 October 2013.

Wah......More seat supply than demand meh? Rock bottom promotion~! Heheheheheheh!!

AAX however, managed to achieve a yield growth of up 10.5 per cent y-o-y, but this was due to the absence of loss making routes to Europe and India.

Expensive lesson learned though! Heheheheheheh!!

Folks, although a fare war had been expected to occur in 2013, they were shocked with the pace and depth of the price war that transpired in 2Q13.

AA and MAS experienced severe yield declines of minus 7.8 per cent and minus 8.4 per cent year on year (y-o-y), respectively in 2Q13.

So will the 3Q earnings be promising for AA? A small leak can sink a GREAT ship, folks!

Folks, yields have collapsed in the aviation industry, a result of the price war that transpired among airlines in the second quarter of 2013 (2Q13).

So what will the 3Q earnings be?

Can the rally continue? Remember folks 3QE? Careful nnow!! Heheheheheh!!

Southeast Asia has nine of the largest low-cost carrier international routes in the world. Ten years ago, budget airlines hardly existed in the region.

One major player in the region is Lion Air (13 percent of total capacity in Southeast Asia and 37 percent of low-cost-carrier capacity within the region). They’ve got nearly 600 additional aircraft on order.

The other major player is AA, with 32 percent of the low-cost-carrier capacity within the region. But AA is much larger than Lion Air in the international market, with flights into North Asia and Australia. Lion Air doesn’t go there. Not yet.

Regional subsidiaries of flag carriers, too, have been among the fastest growing carriers in the region, including Singapore Airlines’ subsidiary SilkAir, and Thai Airways’ Thai Smile.

With Low-Cost Airlines Rise in Southeast Asia, will there be enough passengers to fill up the increase in capacity? time will tell!

Will the rally continue? Hehehehehehehe!!

Three, the proposed Tata‐SIA airline represents a potentially significant challenge to incumbents Air India and Jet Airways since the new airline could offer passengers the most valued elements of a full-service carriers but incorporate low cost practices. So AI and Jet need to gird up their loins, alter fare structures and unleash either a hybrid fare model or a distinguishable premium service model to stay alive.

Four, CAPA says GoAir is expected to make a determined push towards a deeper form of hybridisation which may include participation in an alliance, code sharing and the introduction of a separate premium economy or lite business class cabin.

So wait & watch for the two Tata airlines to snipe at each other!!

Face off: Wait for the two Tata airlines to snipe at each other!

First, it says that the two full service carriers – Air India and Jet Airways – together lost $200-225 million between April and June this year. During the same three months, low cost carriers (LCCs) SpiceJet, GoAir, IndiGo earned a combined profit of $60 million. Which only goes on to show that being a full service carrier is equivalent to being daft in the Indian context in today’s scenario.

Second, CAPA says there will be unavoidable overlap between the two Tata airlines themselves – Tata-SIA and AA India. In the first, Tatas are 51% majority owners whereas in the second their share is just 30% in a three way partnership. The Tatas have said the two airlines will have different models and would not overlap but CAPA thinks otherwise.

On domestic routes it (overlap) may be difficult to avoid. Tata‐SIA may eventually offer a hybrid rather than a premium full service product to reflect market realities, which would result in less differentiation with AA India. And with AA expected to pursue aggressive growth the two carriers are likely to come up against each other.

So wait and watch for the two Tata airlines to snipe at each other.

Paving the way for the biggest ever foreign investment in the domestic aviation sector, the Indin Cabine cleared the Jet Airways’ proposed sale of 24 per cent equity to Abu Dhabi-based Etihad, days after the Rs.2,058-crore deal got regulatory clearances.

The Jet-Etihad deal is so far the single-largest FDI in the domestic aviation sector with Malaysian carrier AirAsia announcing that it would initially invest $30 million (over Rs.185 crore) in AirAsia India, its joint venture with Tata Sons and Telstra Tradeplace.

Meanwhile SIA plans to invest $100 million in the SIA-TATA Jv.

AirAsia ScoreCard

03.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 423 / 424

Tracked : 417 / 416

Departed: 412 / 411

Cancelled: 005 /005

On-time : 77% / 73%

AirAsia-X ScoreCard

03.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 36 / 34

Tracked : 33 / 28

Departed: 33 / 28

Cancelled: 00 / 00

On-time : 79% / 71%

Philippines AirAsia ScoreCard

03.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 06 / 07

Tracked : 06 / 07

Departed: 06 / 07

Cancelled: 00 / 00

On-time : 100% / 100%

Thailand AirAsia ScoreCard

03.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 210 / 210

Tracked : 207 / 202

Departed: 207 / 202

Cancelled: 00 / 00

On-time : 97% / 97%

Indonesia AirAsia ScoreCard

03.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 174 / 173

Tracked : 168 / 162

Departed: 168 / 162

Cancelled: 00 / 00

On-time : 67% / 56%

03/10/13: Hold RM2.60 / TP Rm2.90 - HwangDBS. Reason: Competition in home market.

What is a Hold definition, folks?

A recommendation by an analyst to neither buy nor sell a security. An analyst makes a hold recommendation when technical and/or fundamental indicators show middling performance by a security.

It is also called a neutral or market perform recommendation. Total return is expected to be between -15% and +15% over the next 12 months.

So will it be -15% or +15%? Well folks, the 3QE will be announced later this month! Careful now.

D7 0303 03/10/2013 07:15 PM HANGZHOU-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 1343 03/10/2013 12:55 PM PEKANBARU-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5125 03/10/2013 01:50 AM K. KINABALU-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5221 03/10/2013 01:00 AM KUCHING-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

D7 0330 03/10/2013 06:35 PM KUALA LUMPUR-PUDONG CANCELLED

AK 1809 03/10/2013 11:00 AM KUALA LUMPUR-SINGAPORE CANCELLED

AK 1342 03/10/2013 10:50 AM KUALA LUMPUR-PEKANBARU CANCELLED

D7 0392 03/10/2013 09:15 AM KUALA LUMPUR-WUHAN CANCELLED

D7 0170 03/10/2013 02:35 AM KUALA LUMPUR-JEDDAH CANCELLED

View here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

Would the competitive air fare, free seat & rock bottom promotions, high fuel price & weak ringgit translate to better profit for the 3QE13? Look at 2Q earnings, a LOSS of Rm19.917m if without AA Japan sale gains.

A small leak can sink a GREAT ship! Investors have short memories!!

1. Passenger Movements at KLIA Main Terminal & KLIA Low Cost Carrier Terminal:
August 2012: 3,335,768 paxs
August 2013: 4,284,354 paxs up 28.4% additional 948,586 paxs

2. Aircraft Movements at KLIA Main Terminal & Low Cost Carrier Terminal:
August 2012: 23,832 flights
August 2013: 28,752 flights up 20.8% additional 4,920 flights

So folks 4,920 (flights) X 300 (average seating per flight) = 1,476,000 seats available while the additional passengers at 948,586 only.

Talk on Fed taper immerge end of May 2013. While in July, August & September fuel price increase & the ringgit weaken against U.S. dollars.

So will the 3QE13 be good? Heheheheheheheheheheheh……!!

*AirAsia operates Airbus A320 which has a seating capacity of 180 passengers.
*AirAsiaX operates Airbus A330 which has a seating capacity of
377 passengers.
*Malaysia Airlines operates A380, A330, B737-800, B747 & B777 meaning average seating capacity of 320 passengers
*Other airlines A330, A320, B747, B777, B737 average seating capacity of 280 passengers.

August 2013 passenger traffic performance was well beyond expectation.

1. KLIA Main Terminal passenger volume increased by 39.2% to 2.40 million in August 2013.

2. KLIA Low Cost Carrier Terminal grew by 16.9% handling 1.88 million passengers in August 2013.

3. Hari Raya Festive Season & the longer school holidays complemented by COMPETITIVE AIR FARES and SUFFICIENT SEAT CAPACITY partly contributed to the remarkable growth.

4. August 2013 aircraft movements registered 19.9% increase over August 2012 meaning increase in seat capacity too.

5. The general load factor for August 2013 continues to remain buoyant above the 70% range.

6. Seat capacity expansion with encouraging tourist arrivals provide optimism that the growth momentum will continue.

7. Downside risks to the industry that may dampen traffic growth still remain. IMF has revised 2013 global growth downwards from 3.3% to 3.1%. Though there are some positive signs in USA and Japan, slower growth in China and India, Euro slow economic recovery and possible USA fiscal stimulus shortcomings could lead to a slower global economy growth. Malaysia Institute of Economic Research (MIER), an economic think tank has also recently downgraded its estimate of Malaysia’s GDP from 5.6% to 4.8%. Oil price hike still remain a concern due to instability in the Middle East and negative impact due to possible recurrence of bird-flu or SARS-like flu cannot be ruled out.

So how? Growth forcast within expectation. 19.9% increase in aircraft movements meaning more seats available. Load 70% above range!

Will this 3Q earnings be good for AA? Remember EMs turmoil in Jun, Jul & August 2013?

MAS
04/05/13: Rm0.345
03/10/13: Rm0.345


Airasia
04/06/13: Rm3.48
03/10/13: Rm2.62

What does this tell you, folks? Which aviation industry is strenghtening & improving? Heheheheheheh!!

Folks, due to the earlier turmoil in the EMs the 3Q eranings wil not be so promising for AA.

But if the shutdown is longer than it should be, 4Q earnings for AA will be great because of cheaper fuel & dollar!

But how long will the shutdown last? Will you buy now? Remember folks, 3Q announcement is just around the corner? Careful now!

But AA will gain 5 million customers because of free seats mah!

folks, emerging markets have faced volatility in the 3Q on concerns that the Fed's eventual tapering moves would lead to outflows from those markets.

Emerging markets have historically led the fourth-quarter trend by a large margin.

Folks with a longer shutdown maybe till Dec 2013, 4Q will be good for AA but not the 3Q! Will you buy now? Maybe after the 3Q announcement?

Anyway, in general, does anybody truly believe that stocks are cheap?

That the prices you’re paying in general for earnings is historically compelling other than from a “well, the bubble’s still gonna inflate bigger” kind of logic?

So will this happen?

Folks, with the Fed, the banks, the Treasury and high-frequency trading and ongoing fraud settlements by the big banks and who knows what other kinds of ongoing fraud and market manipulation is going on under the hood, why on earth are stocks up in a straight line over the last few years and at new all-time highs?

It’s because we have entered new stock market bubble territory courtesy of zero percent interest rates and all the other policies that are driving people into stocks around the world.

In a sign of growing fears that a U.S. shutdown could drag on, the U.S. dollar fell to a fresh eight-month low against a basket of currencies on Thursday.

So hope the shutdown will be longest in history maybe till next month or year? Heeheheheeheh

This will drag the dollar lower. Yes!! Fuel & dollars dominated borrowings will also be cheap. Will the 4Q be freindly to AA compared to the 3Q? Time will tell

So far, the failure to break the budget deadlock has had a limited impact on global stock markets. So please make it longer!

Folks, as another day passes without a deal, the prospect of a long shutdown with negative repercussions for the economy is growing.

As the U.S. government shutdown moves into a third day, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch say three pressure points must be triggered to snap politicians out of the gridlock.

The first pressure point, will be discontent with Congress expressed through public opinion polls. U.S. polls over the weekend already showed that approval ratings for Congress had halved, slipping to 10 percent.

The second trigger will come when the growing level of discontent with the U.S. government translates into an assignment of blame, which looked likely to fall on the Republicans. Poll showed, 46 percent of respondents blamed Republicans in Congress, 36 percent pointed to Obama and 13 percent said both.

The third pressure point would be triggered by the stock market, suggesting that signs of a panicked selloff could spur U.S. politicians into action. So far, global equity markets have shown a relatively muted reaction to news of the shutdown.

So how? Will the rally continue?

Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index: +1.53%

Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index: +0.96%

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index: +0.69%

S&P BSE SENSEX Index: +1.24%

Kuala Lumpur Composite Index: -0.01%

So how? Can the rally continue for KLCI? Heheheheheheh!!

Folks, the shutdown is great. It clearly demonstrates how much unnecessary stuff U.S. government is doing. And that U.S. govt can function just fine without majority of it.

The only people upset by the shutdown are the 800 K federal employees who lost their paycheck. People working in the private sector didn't notice any difference whatsoever.

Sure, the U.S. museums are closed, but these museums don't need to function as federal entities. Plus, people paying taxes to support these museums can't even enjoy them because they are in a different city.

That brings up the question - are these 800K job really necessary or they are just "make work" type of jobs?

Hmmmmmmm........!!

Folks, ringgit rose the most in two weeks, leading gains in Asia, on speculation the U.S. government shutdown will delay the tapering of stimulus that has fueled emerging-market gains.

Can & will the rally continue? Time will tell!

The Malaysia Competition Commission (MyCC) expects to receive response from AirAsia Bhd and Malaysia Airlines (MAS) very soon after allegedly breaching competition laws.

On Sept 6, the MyCC concluded that in respect of the infringement of Section 4(2)(b) of the Act, the commission would impose a financial penalty of RM10 million on AirAsia and MAS respectively.

MyCC has given the airlines 30 days to argue, either orally or in writing, why they should not be fined RM10 million each.

Indonesia's Lion Air is looking to fill "thin" routes with Bombardier Inc's C300 jets, as it challenges Malaysia's AirAsia Bhd in Southeast Asia's quick-growing market for budget travel.

Chief executive Rusdi Kirana told Reuters the airline is in talks to buy a "double-digit" number of C300s, rather than more narrow-body Boeing Co 737s or Airbus A320s, because their size offers lower operating cost per trip on so-called thin routes where passengers don't quite fill the larger planes.

The airline has been on a shopping spree as it looks to capitalize on Indonesia's rising consumer class who are increasingly hopping between myriad islands of the world's fourth-most populous country, whilst it competes internationally with the likes of AirAsia.

Malaysia Airline System Bhd (MAS) will collaborate with the Tourism Malaysia Board to promote interesting local destinations in conjunction with Visit Malaysia Year in 2014.

Will this affect AA load directly or indirectly, folks? Will the rally continue? Heheheheheheh!!