In Europe, Italian stocks led a broad-based decline, as Silvio Berlusconi, the leader of the center-right party which makes up a large part of Italy's coalition government, caused chaos by ordering a number of ministers to resign from the cabinet on Saturday. Prime Minister Enrico Letta has said he will go before parliament on Wednesday for a confidence vote.

What next after debt ceiling ....... Fed taper ... 3QE13? Careful now!

In Asia, China's final reading of manufacturing activity from HSBC came in at 50.2 in September, lower from a preliminary reading of 51.2 earlier this month.

How will China markets react on this negative news? Up, down or unchanged, folks?

Heheheheheheh!!

In a morning research note, Deutsche Bank's Frank Kelly said it was "almost certain" the government would shut down at midnight on Monday and forecast it would remain closed for between two and five days.

How will KLSE react tomorrow? Will AA be spared? Did you sell at rm2.62 today? Folks follow the trend as the trend is your freind!

Hahahahahahahah!!

U.S. stock index futures were sharply lower Monday, as the possibility of a government shutdown at the end of the day weighed on global markets. U.S. Treasurys ticked higher, driven by a bid for safe haven assets.

Will the rally continue. Will the foreign funds stop selling? Hahahahahaha!!

Is this rally dying? Is this beginning of the end for the rally? Will foreign funds dispose more this week?

Will there be panic selling? Will the 3Q earnings disappoint investors?

Remember folks, the 3Q earnings will not be very promosing.

1Q13 USD agst MYR: Rm3.01-Rm3.12 Crude Oil: $91-$99
Proit: Rm104.793m

2Q13 USD agst MYR: Rm2.96-Rm3.22 Crude Oil: $88-$98
Profit: Rm58.348m (a LOSS of Rm19.917m if without AA Japan sale gains)

3Q13 USD agst MYR: Rm3.16-Rm3.33 Crude Oil: $92-$111
Profit/Loss? Time will tell

Folks, the weak ringgit will still dent AA’s earnings as a weak ringgit is not good for airlines in Malaysia, as most of their costs are borne in US dollars, specifically for fuel & borrowings.

Can the rally continue? Remember folks, a small leak can sink a GREAT ship! Careful now!

Hahahahahahahah!!

U.S. in the middle of an epic credit bubble? One of the world's largest investment firms believes the financial system is overly leveraged.

"We're not just levering up U.S. GDP into multiples today," Baratta said. "I do expect mean reversion to happen at some point on interest rates, on credit spreads, on the cost of some investment grade corporate credit."

The high valuation of many companies today makes it harder for them to grow. "The biggest risk to returns of this vintage is that exit multiples are depressed," Baratta said.

Folks, there will be major implications for Asia and the rest of the world if China's economic growth slows to below 6.5 per cent.

China's economy grew 7.8 per cent last year and now faces the risk of a sharp slowdown.

China's factory activity expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in September, a private survey showed on Monday, calling into question the strength of the recovery in the world's second largest economy.

While new domestic orders remained flat from the previous month, external demand was a bright spot. New business from overseas clients increased for the first time in six months, with managers seeing stronger demand from Europe and the United States.

Manufacturers' restocking process, meanwhile, continued but remained relatively slow.

Zhiwei Zhang, chief China economist at Nomura, said the marginal improvement from August reinforces his view that the economic recovery is unsustainable.

So careful now! A small leak can sink a GREAT ship!

Asian markets have fallen on fears that the US may be heading for a shutdown of government services.

Stock indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea all declined.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 1.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 1.2%, Australia's ASX dropped 1.4%, while South Korea's Kospi shed 0.7%

Folks, until that is resolved, we are likely to see volatility in the markets.

Careful now!

Italy index down 2.3%!

Can the rally on KLSE continue? Folks, take profits while you still can!

Earlier Ringgit Leads Asia Declines as U.S. Government Shutdown Looms. Now Overtaken by Rupee! Latest forex at 3pm.

USD-MYR 3.2673 +0.0397 (+1.23%) 52wk high:3.3377 52wk low:2.9570

USD-INR 62.8550 +0.3575 (+0.57%) 52wk high:68.8450 52wek low:51.3862

USD-THB 31.3600 +0.0300 (+0.10%) 52wk high:32.4800 52wk low:28.5600

USD-PHP 43.4950 +0.1500 (+0.30%) 52wk high:44.8200 52wk low:40.5400

USD-IDR 11,534.0000 +250.0000 (+2.22%)52wk high:11,730.0000 52wk low:9,563.0000

US government shutdown: How will markets react?

As investors prepare for the increasing likelihood of a political stalemate in Washington, many argue a shutdown should be short-lived, but how will markets take the news?

Most analysts agree that a shutdown now looks imminent, but acknowledge that this has happened before and is unlikely to last long.

France CAC opens 1.2% lower.
Germany DAX opens 1.2% lower.
UK FTSE opens 1.1% lower.

Are you ready, folks?

Folks, Asian shares jolted by U.S., Italian politics; China disappoints.

U.S. stock futures and the dollar came under pressure on Monday as a shutdown of the U.S. government seemed increasingly likely, while the euro had political troubles of its own as the Italian government teetered on the edge of collapse.

Not helping was a surprise downward revision to activity in China's factory sector.

Nikkei 225: 14,455.80 -304.27 (-2.06%) 02:00pm

Thailand SET: 1,388.04 -29.45 (-2.08%) 01:29pm

Jakarta Stock: 4,353.21 -70.51 (-1.59%) 01:00pm

Philippines Stock: 6,278.14 -101.67 (-1.59%) 02:36pm

BSE SENSEX: 19,496.69 -230.58 (-1.17%) 02:21pm

KLCI Index: 1,763.54 -12.62 (-0.71%) 02:20pm

Can the rally continue? Investors have short memories!

Folks, Malaysia’s ringgit fell, leading losses in Asia, amid a U.S. budget stalemate that raises the risk of the first government shutdown in 17 years. Sovereign bonds were little changed.

Should the Senate reject the bill today, the government could be shut down from tomorrow. Malaysian bond yields are likely to rise as inflation accelerates after the authorities cut fuel subsidies this month, according to a Sept. 27 report from Barclays Plc analysts led by London-based Christian Keller.

The ringgit declined 1 percent to 3.2606 per dollar as of 10:11 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur, the worst performance among Asia’s 11 most-traded currencies.

Folks, is this one of the sign for the perfect selldown in Malaysia? Will the rally continue? Are you ready?

Investors have short memories!

Folks, the market has to navigate several potential potholes this week.

• In the U.S, the threat of a Government shutdown as a result of budgetary impasse is keeping investors on the sideline. Moody’s estimate that a 3-4 week shutdown may shave 1.4%-point off U.S GDP growth in 4Q13.

• The first week of the month is also pivotal for the concentration of economic statistics scheduled to be released. The U.S’ PMI for manufacturing numbers for September will be released on Tuesday while the all-important unemployment situation is scheduled for release on Friday. The market is expecting unemployment rate for September to stay unchanged at 7.3%.

• The market’s underlying trend now appears fated to move in the direction of the exchange rate. If the ringgit can hold its ground, we expect equity prices to stay stable. For the year to date, the ringgit has only gained meaningfully (based on cross rates) against the yen, Indian rupee and Indonesian Rupiah. Equity prices in India and Indonesia have taken a knock in the last few weeks, in tandem with the decline in the exchange rate. Should there be contagion, we expect Malaysia and the Philippines to be in the next group vulnerable to a selldown.

Are you ready for the selldown, folks? Investors have short memories!

• The surplus last week increased the overhang of foreign portfolio capital which entered the Malaysian equity market in 2013 to +RM8.4b or +USD2.95b (based on weighted average exchange rates at the point of entry). For money which had flowed in since Jan 2011, we estimate the cumulative overhang to remain at +RM24.0b or +USD8.0b.

• We note that foreign funds were net sellers in the last three trading days on Bursa. Although the amount was relatively moderate, it is a negative indicator for short-term sentiment.

Source: MIDF. So how now? Can the rally continue, folks?

• Foreign buying of Malaysian-listed shares dropped significantly last week. Foreign funds bought, in the open market (i.e excluding off-market deals), only +RM36.5m last week, compared with +RM506.6m the week before.

• The tapering of foreign purchases is expected. After the Fed decided to delay the unwinding of its quantitative easing, about RM1.4b of foreign capital inflow has been recorded. This is less than 20% of the total amount of foreign money that left in August and in the first week of September.

Folks, based on aggregate data from seven Asian markets (Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and India*), net purchase of equity by foreign funds amounted to +USD1.7b, compared with +USD3.5b the week before.

Buying momentum of Korean stocks picked up again last week. while remained unchanged in Taiwan.

Foreign funds appear to be backpedalling on the TIPs (Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines) markets after having recorded a promising entry the preceding two weeks. Foreign funds pulled out -USD322.4m from Thailand and -USD170.2m from Indonesia. There was also a marginal outflow from the Philippines.

Foreign buying of Malaysian equity in the open market “tapered” significantly last week. Foreign funds bought only +USD11.7m last week, compared with +USD159.3m the week before.

So will Malaysia be spared from the selldown in the EMs? The signs are all there so the question are you ready for another vicious selldown?

Investors have short memories! Hahahahahahahah!!

Folks, of more concern is the decline in Emerging Markets last week. The Thai SET was the worst hit, declining -4.7%, the third biggest weekly loss this year.

Indonesia’s JCI also lost -3.5%. It is apparent that prices are depressed by an outflow of foreign capital. Meanwhile, China’s CSI lost -1.5% but investors are clearly on the sideline ahead of the long break. China’s markets will be closed 1-7 October for the national holiday — the focus therefore will be on SEA Emerging Markets.

Folks, will Malaysia be spared? Investors have short memories!

Folks, investors’ concerns have shifted from monetary policy to fiscal
policy. Currently, the market is fearing the Congressional impasse
over the debt ceiling. Next market’s concerns revert to the Fed, and its threat to unwind the QE3.

Still, investors are unsettled by the prospects of the U.S Government missing its 1 October deadline for continued funding which may lead to the shutdown of some of its services. There is also a 15 October deadline for the Government to procure new debt ceiling.

Fed taper, USD85 billion a month, folks! Investors have short memories!

folks, after a buoyant fortnight, global equity prices retreated last week. Investors took the opportunity of the strength in prices to cash
out of Emerging Markets.

Investors have short memories!

The ringgit was traded lower against the US dollar today as buyers' appetite were more on the greenback's favour due to worries about fiscal and monetary policy in the United States, a dealer said.

At 9.14 am, the ringgit was quoted at 3.2570/2610 per US dollar from 3.2270/2300 on Friday.

Will ringgit close higher? Debt ceiling, Fed taper, selldown in EMs & maybe not so promising 3QE? What next?

Will the rally contine? Time will tell! Careful now, folks!

Asian equities widened their losses on Monday as investors digested the latest factory data from China and as worries rise about a possible shutdown of the U.S. government for the first time in 17 years.

Among the biggest losers, Japan's Nikkei index was down over 2 percent while Australia's S&P ASX 200 shed over 1 percent.

KLSE?

Italy, which is the world's third-largest bond market, matters more than any other euro zone peripheral economy, Spiro noted.

In the minds of investors, the euro zone crisis has always been about two countries: Italy and Spain. If either one suffers a major crisis, markets are more likely to take fright.

The big difference now is that the (European Central Bank's) bond-buying program continues to suppress Italian and Spanish borrowing costs, while markets have chosen to focus on signs of an economic recovery in the euro zone.

On Sunday, Italy's economy minister tried to play down the potential market impact of the latest developments, saying investors have already factored in the country's political instability.

Analysts expect some market volatility as the Italian theatrics continues to play out in the coming weeks.

Along comes Italy, to spoil Europe's market calm?

Just as you thought the crisis mode in Europe was over and markets seem to be enjoying confidence and stability, along comes another curve ball, served up by Italian politicians.

Center-right leader Silvio Berlusconi pulled his ministers out of the cabinet on Saturday, effectively bringing down the government of Prime Minister Enrico Letta and leaving the euro zone's third-largest economy in chaos.

While markets have grown accustomed to "Italy's dysfunctional politics," there's a sense that things are now spinning out of control, with potentially dangerous consequences for both Italy and the euro zone.

Saturday's resignations of the five ministers from Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia party from the conflict-ridden government of Premier Enrico Letta sounds the death knell for the five-month-old 'grand coalition.

Another meltdown? Hmmmmm.. careful now!

China September HSBC PMI well below flash estimate. Factory activity expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in September, a private survey showed on Monday, calling into question the strength of the recovery in the world's second largest economy.

The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 50.2 – significantly below than the flash estimate of 51.2, but a touch higher than 50.1 in August.

A reading above 50 indicates expanding activity and one below signals contraction. So how now, folks?

Employees Provident Fund Board

Disposed 24/09/2013 1,000,000

AK 1487 29/09/2013 11:25 PM SIEM REAP-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8206 29/09/2013 07:35 PM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

D7 0173 29/09/2013 07:25 AM JEDDAH-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5220 29/09/2013 09:00 PM KUALA LUMPUR-KUCHING CANCELLED

QZ 8207 29/09/2013 08:20 PM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED

AK 5124 29/09/2013 08:20 PM KUALA LUMPUR-K. KINABALU CANCELLED

AK 1486 29/09/2013 06:35 PM KUALA LUMPUR-SIEM REAP CANCELLED

View here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

AK 1487 27/09/2013 11:25 PM SIEM REAP-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8206 27/09/2013 07:35 PM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

D7 0223 27/09/2013 05:30 PM SYDNEY-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5220 27/09/2013 09:00 PM KUALA LUMPUR-KUCHING CANCELLED

AK 5124 27/09/2013 08:20 PM KUALA LUMPUR-K. KINABALU CANCELLED

QZ 8207 27/09/2013 08:20 PM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED

AK 1486 27/09/2013 06:35 PM KUALA LUMPUR-SIEM REAP CANCELLED

View here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

Cheers folks! Have a good & wonderful weekend! I will!

Folks, AirAsia gets green signal from Indian civil aviation ministry.

Judging from the share price movements & volume, why aren't the share getting the green light from the owner & investors?

Must be the share is overvalue as 3QE is in the red? Hmmmmm.......!!

Folks, market players are still trying to determine when the U.S. Fed Reserve will begin to taper back its "$85 billion monthly" economic stimulus package after its surprise decision not to do so last week and mixed messages from various top Fed officials since.

On the one hand, a reduction in monetary stimulus would reduce the flood of money available to invest in shares, but it would also point to faith that the U.S. economy is back on its feet.

Whatever it is, Fed latest decicion on the QE is just postponement. Sooner of later the Fed still have to taper. Be ready as EMs will be hammered with a massive selldown!

Folks, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. So will the rally continue? Anyone?

Optimism is denial, so face the facts and move on. It is wise to direct your anger towards problems not people, to focus your energies on answers not excuses.

Hehehehehehehehehe!!

European shares were lower in morning trade on Friday on a growing political crisis in Italy and fears over the U.S. government's debt showdown.

Can the rally for EMs continue next week? Time will tell! Heheheheheh!!

So folks can the rally continue? Debt ceiling, Fed taper, EMs selldown & then 3QE announcement to follow. How much will AA share price be if the 3QE is bad?

Careful now! Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!

After offical announcing the NOC from India civil aviation ministry, is this the best the price can go?

Yeah... maybe starting with a single aircraft only. No impact to AA either making a profit or a loss! Just toooo small. Wakakakakakakakak!!

Can the rally last to next week? Hahahahahahah.!!

Folks, Lion Air Group is planning further expansion at its Batam hub with several new domestic routes by early 2014 followed by the launch of international services by the end of 2014. Flights to Bangkok, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Jeddah are part of an ambitious plan by Lion to position Batam as its major Indonesian hub for domestic to international connections.

Batam, an Indonesian island located close to Singapore, has quietly emerged as a Lion domestic hub with 13 routes and a large volume of transit passengers. Batam is currently the ninth largest hub or base for Lion but the island’s Hang Nadim Airport, which will also host a new Lion maintenance base, could become the group’s largest transit hub.

Lion is keen to position Batam as an alternative transit point to congested Jakarta. The group is also planning to acquire a ferry to shuttle passengers between Batam and Singapore, avoiding the congestion and higher cost of Changi Airport. Really? Hmmmm.. Heheheheheheh!!

Is this the right time to buy shares in EMs?

View here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Pb-euN0znE

QE3? US Economy 2014 Collapse? Really?

View here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRFG4ekXfw8

Folks, a “vicious cycle” of rising interest rates and economic weakness has already emerged and is likely to intensify as the Fed Reserve attempts to extricate itself from its program of quantitative easing, Nomura chief economist Richard Koo warned in a note on Thursday.

The Fed has nobody to blame but itself, according to Koo, an expert on Japan’s own Great Recession. which began in the 1990s.

Koo contends the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield 10_YEAR+0.23% from around 1.60% to as high as 3% in the wake of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s hints earlier this summer that the Fed could begin to taper this year will impact interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and automobiles.

That’s where the vicious cycle comes in. As was on display last week, worries about rising rates can lead to hesitance at the Fed, prompting policy makers to temporarily shelve tapering, Koo says.

While rates might subsequently decline, providing markets with temporary reassurance, renewed talk of tapering would likely follow stronger economic data. Then rates would rise again, repeating the process. Koo said that while he had previously warned of just such a scenario, he didn’t think it would occur so soon.

Folks, QE as a policy that is easy to begin and hard even scary to end. The recent drama over tapering signals the start of the less pleasant second part.

Investors have short memories!

What is Quantitative Easing

View here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43268061

Folks, if the Fed Reserve's unprecedented quantitative easing program started a currency war, the euro may offer the next battleground but the emerging country currencies will face further vicious selldown again.

For example, Indonesia's rupiah was trading around 12,000 to the U.S. dollar before the Fed introduced its first round of quantitative easing in December 2008. The rupiah then strengthened to around 8,500 by mid-2011, but has weakened to around 11,500 since talk the Fed may soon taper its asset purchases emerged.

So how? Will the ringgit & the KLSE be spared from another round of selldown by foreign & local investors? Will the stocks be much cheaper then? Hmmmmmmmmm...!!

Headlines making the news for the month of September 2013

1. India's top housing market headed for correction?

2. Is Malaysia’s property market headed for a Dubai-style crash?

3. Bank Indonesia Plans New Rule to Avert Possible Property Bubble.

4. Contradictory figures fuelling China property bubble debate.

So folks, the important question is can it be deflated safely, or will it burst? Will it affect tourism & aviation sectors in term of consumer spending confidence? Can the rally continue? Heheheheh!!

Folks, Malaysia’s ringgit was poised for its biggest weekly drop in three months as concern over US budget talks that risk a government shutdown sapped demand for emerging-market assets. Government bonds fell.

The US Senate plans to vote today on a spending bill, three days before federal spending authority runs out and as the country approaches its borrowing limit. Meanwhile Malaysia is seeking RM14.1 billion in extra spending this year to pay civil servants’ salaries

The market concern has moved on from the prospect of foreigners withdrawing from Malaysian government securities to the fiscal front.

As at 9am today, the local note open higher was quoted at 3.2120/2150 to a US dollar from 3.2130/2160 yesterday.

But the ringgit declined 1.8% this week and 0.3% today to 3.2238 per dollar as of 9.58am in Kuala Lumpur. Its five-day drop is the biggest since the period ended June 21.

Careful now folks as the weak ringgit is not good for airlines in Malaysia!

Congratulation to Airasia for the NOC from Indian aviation ministry. But will the rally continue?

The positive news should drive AA to Rm2.85 but sadly still trading above it critical support level at Rm2.60 with little volume.

Now ask yourself why aren't the owner, local & foreign funds buying aggressively with the positive news?

Could it be the share price overvalue? Could it be the 3QE13 is in the red? Come on Tune, start buying in order to show us AA going to be profitable this coming 3Q, yeah!

Remember folks, a small leak can sink a GREAT ship!

AirAsia India says it has received NOC from aviation ministry. Congratulation ... Bravo!!

Folks, with the positive news AA still trading without much volume. Ask yourself why why why why why why why why why aren't the owner, local & foreign funds buying aggressively?

Maybe to them the share price is still overvalue as 3QE13 is in the red? Time will tell, folks!