Aberdeen's Thom investment manager for Aberdeen Asset Management, Asia Pacific equity portfolio agreed that Southeast Asian markets were more vulnerable.

"Partly this is because Southeast Asian markets have been amongst the better performers and so they're a natural source of profits for foreign investors. In that sense these markets are victims of their own success," he said.

So how now, more massive downtrend rather than uptrend?

Now, there is a growing realisation of the risk that this vast amount of funds could pour out, and investors are eyeing U.S. data nervously for stronger evidence of an economic recovery that could tip the Fed's hand.

Tapering concerns are not over, the big exporting economies of North Asia would fare better than those economies in Southeast Asia that are less export-focused.

Some government and central banks that had taken the precaution of securing currency swap agreements and raising interest rates had, at least, offset some of the downside risk. folks, is Malaysia one of them, rate hike, etc? Hahahaha!!

Handicapped by big current account deficits, EMs such as Indonesia and India had been hit so hard in recent months that many investors stopped worrying about tapering risks and focused on their economic problems instead.

But the scale of their rally after the Fed's decision to stand pat revealed just how big an issue tapering still is for them.

The upside volatility in EMs was huge. Markets across the board jumped and the more battered the market the bigger the jump.

Jakarta stocks, for example, at one point leapt more than 7% in reaction to the Fed's non-move, although Indonesia's economic problems were still the same. The only thing that changed was the tapering outlook.

When the Fed tapers later in the year there'll be even greater downside volatility. More than we thought.

So how now? Hold, buy or sell now, folks? Heheheheheh!!

Remember folks, the strength of the rally in developed and emerging markets alike that followed the Fed's surprise decision to wait a while longer showed some markets were far more sensitive to tapering than had been appreciated.

Careful now as Fed tapering a bigger risk to Asia markets than assumed!

Folks, judging by the strength of the relief rally seen after the U.S. Federal Reserve did nothing last week, some Asian emerging markets could be far more vulnerable than earlier thought when the Fed finally does decide to slow its dollar printing presses.

"I anticipate more volatility in the markets linked to policy action out of the U.S.", said James Thom, investment manager for Aberdeen Asset Management, Asia Pacific equity portfolio.

"When tapering does finally come through we're likely to see more turbulence and probably a negative reaction in Asian markets and Southeast Asian markets in particular."

Delighted with SIA JV, Tata Sons won't sell AirAsia stake!

Tata Sons have rebutted claims that AirAsia had raised any objection to the Tata-SIA JV joint venture. Mukund Rajan, member of Tata Sons GEC and Board Member Tata-SIA JV said they had informed AirAsia about Tata-SIA JV and were were delighted to partner with Singapore Airlines. The question of selling AirAsia India JV stake does not arise.

Without taper, could more of QE turn the Western capital markets into one gigantic Ponzi scheme, one in which government borrowing is financed by another government department printing money?

Hmmmmmm...!

Volume traded
17 Sep: 15,036,300
18 Sep: 12,060,100
19 Sep: 20,882,700
20 Sep: 10,508,900

Margin call & profit taking in the coming days?

Jetstar Japan has secured its position as the largest of the low-cost carriers that launched in Japan.

TigerAir cements position as Singapore's largest low-cost group, overtaking Jeststar & Airasia.

The Lion Group plans to end the year with 145 aircraft while the Garuda Indonesia Group has stated in investor presentations that it plans to end 2013 with 139 aircraft.

The AirAsia Group has stated that it expects to have a fleet of 138 aircraft at the end of 2013, including 137 in Southeast Asia and one at start-up AirAsia India.

The SIA Group has stated it expects to have a fleet of 139 aircraft at the close of its current fiscal year, which ends on 31-Mar-2014. The fleet is projected to end calendar 2013 at 138 aircraft.

1. Lion: 145 Lion Air (100), Wings Air (27), Malindo Air (10), Batik Air (8)

2. Garuda: 139 Garuda (110), Citilink (29)

3. Singapore Airlines: 138 SIA (101), SilkAir (23), SIA Cargo (9), Scoot (5)

4. AirAsia: 137 AA Malaysia (70), Thai AA (35), Indonesia AA (29), Philippines AA (3)

5. Malaysia Airlines: 131 MAS (98), Firefly (18), MASWings (15)

6. Thai Airways: 120

U.S. stocks fell on Monday after notching three weeks of gains, as investors heard from Federal Reserve officials and worried about another standoff in Washington.

“Tapering might begin as soon as October or they might hold off until a new [Fed] chairman is elected. The comments and the message the Fed sent last week is the economy is still on some soft footing and doesn’t have the strength to begin this process — that’s not a good message to send,” said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners.

“They got the market ready for this tapering. Their communication process of late has been abysmal,” he added.

The ringgit opened lower against the US dollar today for the third consecutive day as profit taking emerged among Asian currencies.

The local note was quoted at 3.2040/2070 per US dollar from 3.1970/1010 on Monday.

So folks, will the rally continue? Heheheheheh!!

The government budget deficit widened to 4.7 per cent of GDP last year from 3.8 per cent in 2011, Fitch reported, citing a 19 per cent rise in spending on wages and handouts in the two years leading up to the 13th general election this May.

Monday's request calls that pledge into question, said Dr Ong Kian Ming, an opposition MP.

"It is a worrying trend and may breach the government promise to reduce the budget deficit to 4 per cent of GDP," he told The Straits Times on Monday.

Najib said that the government will address fiscal concerns when it tables next year's Budget on Oct 25, which is expected to include new ways of raising government revenue, including the long-delayed goods and services tax.

The government recently cut fuel subsidies, raising the price of subsidised petrol and diesel by 0.20 ringgit per litre on September 3.

That move cut its yearly subsidy bill by about 3.3 billion ringgit.

In recent interviews, Najib has assured investors and the public that his government will be able to fix the deficit, which goes back to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

He cited better fundamentals including 316 billion ringgit in foreign reserves compared to the 95 billion ringgit the country relied on in 1997.

So will the rally continue for KLSE? Beware of the little expenses; a small leak will sink a great ship. Careful now!

"This bill is fiscally not prudent and could rattle the market if a deficit of 4 per cent or less is not met this year," warned Dr Yeah Kim Leng, chief economist at RAM ratings company.

Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak has pledged to keep the budget deficit to 4 per cent this year, noting that it was already down to 4.5 per cent last year from 6.7 per cent in 2009.

Yeah said the additional fund request could be partly due to unbudgeted spending, including pre-election handouts like the 1Malaysia People's Assistance Fund, which gave 500 ringgit each to some 4.2 million households with income of less than 3,000 ringgit a month.

Economists said this could well lead to further downgrades like that given by global rating company Fitch in July, when it lowered Malaysia's credit rating outlook from stable to negative, citing weak steps to rein in soaring public debt.

The Fitch report said that government debt had ballooned to 53.3 per cent of GDP last December from 51.6 per cent at the end of 2011.

The constitutional debt ceiling is 55 per cent. How now, folks?

In a surprise move, the Malaysian government asked for an extra 14.1 billion ringgit (US$4.4 billion) to cover unplanned overspending this year, raising concerns over its ability to pare down its national debt, currently at critical levels.

The amount is expected to be used to pay civil servants and for other operating expenses incurred during the elections.

Deputy Finance Minister Ahmad Maslan on Monday tabled a supplementary bill for the 14.1 billion ringgit, which works out to about 5.6 per cent of the 251.6 billion ringgit Budget approved for this year.

Supplementary bills are typically used to cover unforeseen expenses such as for disaster relief and combating viral outbreaks.

So how? Economists say that the latest request is worrying at a time when the government is already under severe pressure to reduce its national debt, which is approaching a self-imposed limit of 55 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Has the rally in emerging markets already stalled?

On the heels of the financial crisis in 2008, the Fed began the first of what is now three QE programs, with the latest involving purchases of $85 billion a month in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.

In recent months, Bernanke and other officials have indicated a desire to start winding down—or "tapering"—the program on belief that the economy is recovering and that prolonged QE carries risks.

However, the Fed stunned the financial markets last week by passing on tapering yet, stressing that the economic data has not improved enough and congressional infighting has stymied fiscal policy.

Investment pro and gold advocate Peter Schiff, though, said the Fed never intended to taper.

"They're going to have to do 100, 115, 125 (billion dollars a month). When the market comes to terms with that it's going to be a whole different ballgame," he said. "Right now, the Fed has to maintain the illusion that there's a method to their madness."

Schiff predicted a coming huge drop in the U.S. dollar value and a collapse of the Fed policy structure.

"At some point the dollar is going to fall off the edge of a cliff," he said. "Bond prices are going to go down, and the Fed is going to have no choice but to slam on the brakes, and then we are going to have a worse financial crisis than we had in 2008."

Hmmmmm...... really!?

Global airlines cut their 2013 industry profit forecast citing weaker growth in parts of Asia and a worsening slowdown in freight demand.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents some 200 airlines, said the $1 billion downgrade from its previous forecast for the whole industry in June also reflected a spike in oil prices driven by the Syrian crisis.

“The industry situation is not improving as quickly as we had expected,” IATA director general Tony Tyler said. So how?

IATA outlook for 2H13

Asia-Pacific Region: The outlook for Asia-Pacific airlines is downgraded by $1.5 billion to $3.1 billion profits largely driven by slower growth among the region’s emerging economies.

Asia-Pacific carriers are the largest players in global cargo markets and the most impacted by its flat performance.

This has been somewhat offset by a strengthening domestic market in China. Japanese carriers are also seeing a boost as a result of monetary expansion, more favorable exchange rates and the impacts of industry restructuring. We expect robust passenger demand growth of 6.6% to be outstripped by a 6.9% increase in capacity.

So flat performamnce in Asean? Hmmmmm..... careful now!

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) revised its 2013 global industry outlook downwards to $11.7 billion on revenues of $708 billion. Airline performance continued to improve in the second quarter; however at a slower pace than was expected with the previous projection (in June) of $12.7 billion.

This reflects the impact on demand of the oil price spike associated with the Syrian crisis and disappointing growth in several key emerging markets.

Overall, the story is largely positive. Profitability continues on an improving trajectory. But we have run into a few speed bumps. Cargo growth has not materialized.

Emerging markets have slowed. And the oil price spike has had a dampening effect. We do see a more optimistic end to the year. And 2014 is shaping up to see profit more than double compared to 2012,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

So how will AA fair this coming quarter (3QE13)? Stunning profit, moderate profit or a loss? Time will tell, folks!

Lion Group finally ready to enter Bangkok-Jakarta market

Thai Lion will also benefit from being the only Lion Group carrier in the Bangkok-Jakarta market. Lion Air has not yet entered the Thailand market and currently only serves Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Saudi Arabia.

While the group could have used Lion Air to enter the Bangkok-Jakarta market, Lion Air is focusing on domestic expansion opportunities in Indonesia.

Giving the route to Thai Lion should help the new carrier during its initial phase as it can leverage Lion’s strong brand in Indonesia and portfolio of slots at congested Jakarta Soekarno-Hatta.

Thai Lion will also be able to tap into Lion’s strong domestic network at Jakarta, where Bangkok passenger will be able to connect to a wide range of destinations.

Thai Lion will share the same booking engine as Lion, Malindo, Batik and Wings Air and will interline with all sister carriers, providing through check-in to the final destination

Tigerair strengthens position as Singapore's largest low cost carrier. So how?

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

MORE than a year after it launched its Davao-Clark flight, budget airline Philippine's AA announced it will temporarily stop servicing the route starting October 9.

In its website, Maan Hontiveros, AA chief executive officer, said the suspension was made to cushion the impact of losses made by its affiliate Zest Airways following the suspension order imposed by Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (Caap) last August 16, for safety violations.

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View here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

Thai stocks dropped 2.4% today. What next, KLSE?

Point being, taper has only been deferred, not dismissed folks! Careful now!

The Fed's decision to delay the widely anticipated tapering of asset purchases last week raised great expectations for a solid run in EM equities, but the party already looks to be short-lived.

The fundamental risks and potential growth drivers for emerging markets have not changed.

Fed Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard's comments Friday that the central bank could make a small cut to monthly bond purchases at its October meeting after a "borderline decision" in September have dampened sentiment.

Bullard's comments are once again forcing investors to re-think their expectations on U.S. monetary policy, which is holding the rally back.

So how, taper in October?

Folks, the risk of unbridled pullout of foreign liquidity from the EMs remains. Taper in october?

The deal is already facing some ‘turbulence’ after Tata Group also recently announced a joint venture with Singapore Airlines, to establish a full service carrier in India.

This announcement has not gone down well with Amit Bhatia as well as AirAsia. Adding insult to injury were the news reports that Tata Group had kept AirAsia informed of its parleys with Singapore Airlines for the joint venture, but reportedly, kept Amit Bhatia in the dark about the same. In addition, Tony Fernandes, the chief executive of AirAsia, has kept mum about the deal.

Will AirAsia-India manage a smooth take-off or will its wings be nipped in the bud by the reported rift between its major stakeholders?

Time will tell!

Will the rally continue?

AirAsia India's investor Arun Bhatia will take up the issue of partner Tata Sons' decision to float a separate joint venture with Singapore Airlines at an upcoming board meet of the company.

Bhatia, whose son is married to steel magnate LN Mittal's daughter, has roundly criticised the salt-to-software Tata group for not informing him and AirAsia head honcho Tony Fernandes about the transaction, a claim rebutted strongly by the Tata group.

Read more here: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/arun-bhatia-to-raise-tata-singapore-airlines-issue-at-airasia-board-meet/articleshow/22906436.cms

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View here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

Several AirAsia flights to Southern China Monday have been cancelled due to Typhoon Usagi.

In a statement, AirAsia said some domestic flights are also affected due to delays and cancellations caused by Typhoon.

It said that guests affected by the cancellations of these flights will be offered options to move to the next available flight. Each affected guest will be notified via their registered member email account on the AirAsia website, as well as an SMS notification of the cancellations.

Folks, momentum indicators flash warning for stocks whether the prevailing trend in prices will continue or is due for a reversal. A number of these momentum indicators have reached a point that's indicative of a reversal of prevailing trends.

Remember folks, the possibility of taper this year in october is high. So will the rally continue? Heheheheheh!!

Folks, stocks sold off sharply Friday, with the Dow erasing all of its gains since the Fed announcement, as uncertainty over the central bank's bond-buying program spooked Wall Street.

The U.S. dollar found some support in comments by a senior Federal Reserve official opening the possibility of a stimulus cut in October 2013.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaking Friday said the Fed could taper its quantitative easing bond buying in October if the economy improves enough, and he said Bernanke said it would be possible to hold a press briefing after the October meeting, giving the Fed an opportunity to explain any move.

"It's possible you get some data that changes the complexion of the outlook and makes the committee comfortable with a small taper in October," said James Bullard

Fed taper & debt ceiling, october surprise? Remember folks, take profit & cut loss while you still can! So how? Hahahahahahahah!!

A day after the Tata group announced its joint venture with Singapore Airlines, differences seem to have cropped up among the shareholders of AA India.

Arun Bhatia, whose Telestra Tradeplace has accused the Tata group of being “unethical” by keeping him in the dark about the latter’s joint venture with Singapore Airlines & he would raise the matter at AA India board meeting on September 28.

Bhatia’s concerns, which he aired on Friday, and AA chief Tony Fernandes’ silence on the issue have raised apprehensions in many circles that all was not well between the three major shareholders of AA India (AA Bhd holds 49%, Tatas have 30%, Telestra 21%) on the issue. So how now?

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View here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

Folks, some important momentum indicators are flashing warnings after the stock market's explosive move to new highs this week.

Traders look at a plethora of signs and indicators to help guide their decisions. One particular area has to do with momentum, or whether the prevailing trend in prices will continue or is due for a reversal.

A number of these momentum indicators have reached a point that's indicative of a reversal of prevailing trends.

So have you taken profits when you still can earlier? Remember folks, stock market provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed.

Have a good friday folks, I will!

Folks, Folks, Fed tapering expectations were kept alive by data on Thursday showing U.S. home resales surged in August to a 6-1/2-year high and factories grew busier in the Mid-Atlantic region this month.

Folks, no taper in a way was good for the global economy in the short term. But it's a bit like you were supposed to have an injection but you decided not to, because it looked painful. Whether it was a right call remains to be seen.

Good news on Thursday showing U.S. home resales surged in August to a 6-1/2-year high and factories grew busier kept alive Fed tapering expectations.

Many market players still expect the Fed to start reducing its stimulus later this year. Oct, Now or Dec'13?

Will the rally continue? Careful now. Enjoy your profits while it still last! Wakakakakakakakakakkk!!

Hahahahahahahahahah!!

Latest Jet fuel Price for Asia & Oceania

USD125.2
Down 1.5% vs a week ago
Up 0.6% vs a month ago

Malaysia Airlines is on an expansion mode with capacity and frequency increases regionally along with the addition of new international destinations.

In recent weeks, MAS had launched flights to Dubai and Kochi, while increasing capacity and frequencies to Bandar Seri Begawan and Medan.

Soon, MAS will be flying more often to Singapore, Sydney and Melbourne, as well as putting Darwin back on our network map.

MAS has seen a steady increase in passenger traffic since the start of 2013 while matching the added capacity.

Seat loads have also improved, registering 83.3 per cent in July 2013, and equivalent to a 9.1 per cent increase from the previous year.

MAS celebrated the reinstatement of its Kuala Lumpur – Dubai service in August 2013 and Kochi in south India, became its new destination in September.

Airasia folks? Hmmmmmmm....... ???????

Rwemember folks, SIA has the cash to invest in existing and new Asian airlines. SIA has now made three major moves, with launching Scoot, buying a stake in Virgin Australia and now signing an MOU with Tata Sons.

SIA also has made several smaller but still significant moves including increasing SIA’s involvement in Tigerair and accelerating expansion at SilkAir.

Who will previal in India, Airasia or SIA? Time will tell, folks!

Folks, the new JV carrier would also enable SIA to penetrate India’s westbound international markets, in particular India-Europe. SIA could potentially flow some of its own passengers to secondary destinations in Europe via India, providing a bigger European network and closing the gap with the Gulf carriers, which offer a wider range of European destinations.

Services to eastern North America would also be a potential draw with SIA using India as a transit hub for its own services and services from the new joint venture carrier. SIA currently serves New York and Houston via Europe.

Remember folks, SIA is already is a leading carrier in the India-Asia, India-Australia and India-western US markets. Having a local partner will cement its position in these important markets. So how will Airasia fair in this situation? Hahahahahahah!!

Singapore Airlines has taken a major step forward in implementing its new long-term strategy with the proposed establishment of a joint venture carrier in India with Indian conglomerate Tata. The SIA Group will have a 49% stake, giving SIA a major presence in a strategically important market. Tata will have a majority 51% stake.

The SIA Group currently operates 107 weekly flights to 11 Indian destinations, including 66 flights for SIA mainline to six destinations and 41 flights for SilkAir to eight destinations while SIA low-cost affiliate Tigerair also operates 42 weekly flights to six destinations.

Combined SIA, SilkAir and Tigerair have 58,000 weekly seats in the Indian market. This will increase over the next two months to almost 65,000 weekly seats driven mainly by additional SIA capacity on the key Singapore-Delhi route. Hmmmm... interesting!

As the dust settles from the Fed's jolt, some Asian currencies & equities would come under renewed selling pressure.

On friday the Indian rupee fell 1.0 percent to 62.40 to the dollar while Sensex fell more than 2 percent. The Indonesian rupiah gave up 1.0 percent while Jakarta shares lost 1.3 percent.

What next, Malaysia? Remember folks, ringgit was traded lower against the US dollar today. Careful now!

Folks, Fed tapering expectations were kept alive by data on Thursday showing U.S. home resales surged in August to a 6-1/2-year high and factories grew busier in the Mid-Atlantic region this month.

That helped push the U.S. 10-year notes yield back up to 2.73 percent from a five-week low of 2.67 percent touched just after the Fed's decision.

Many market players still expect the Fed to start reducing its stimulus later this year. Oct, Now or Dec'13? Careful now. Enjoy your profits while it still last!

Folks, most Asian indexes softened after Thursday's surge following the Fed's shock decision not to reduce its monetary stimulus at this time.

That gave a much-needed fill-up to emerging markets, which had suffering for months from concern that an end of cheap dollars could cause capital outflow.

Folks, in a way, the decision was good for the global economy in the short term. But it's a bit like you were supposed to have an injection but you decided not to, because it looked painful. Whether it was a right call remains to be seen. Careful now!

Asian shares ran out of steam on Friday, as investors pondered the Federal Reserve's next move.

Indian financial markets were roiled after the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly raised the key policy rate by 25 basis points, triggering a fall in the country's currency, shares and bond prices.

European shares are expected to open lower, with both Germany's DAX and Britain's FTSE seen down 0.2 percent. Will the party continue?

Folks, a day after the Federal Reserve left its bond-buying program intact, investor attention has turned to the the looming U.S debt ceiling.

If President Obama's administration and Republicans can't agree to raise the nation's borrowing cap before October, the U.S. Treasury may not have many options left to avoid exceeding the $16.7 trillion debt limit, which could send the U.S. into default.

So how? Will the rally continue?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday raised the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 7.5 percent, defying expectations of no change to monetary policy.

The central bank also partially reversed some measures that had been put in place to shore up the rupee, reducing the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate by 75 basis points to 9.5 percent.

The RBI said these policy steps will begin a cautious unwinding of recent exceptional steps.

The news immediately rocked India markets. The benchmark sensex stock index fell 2.7 percent, while the 10-year bond yield rose 18 basis points to 8.36 percent. The rupee extended losses, falling as much as 62.10 to a dollar from 61.93 previously.

First Indonesia then India. Whose next, Malaysia? Remember folks, they are all from EMs. Careful now!

The ringgit was traded lower against the US dollar today after climbing the most yesterday since the 1998 regional financial crisis. The local note was quoted at 3.1650/1680 per US dollar from 3.1470/1500 yesterday.

So folks, will AA rally continue? Careful now! Heheheheheh......!!