The IMF paper also says, “Despite differences in policies across economies and over time, the typical economy has tended to experience relatively high volatility and low persistence of capital flows.” That suggests it’s the “push” factors that determine capital flows to emerging markets, rather than “pull” factors in the shape of domestic policies in emerging market economies.

True folks, net capital inflows tend to be the highest when, along with lower global interest rates and low risk aversion, growth differentials between the emerging markets and advanced economies are high.

But the paper also says that “net flows are mildly pro-cyclical with domestic GDP growth”. While growth is a positive, it is only mildly so. Investors have short memories!!

Foreign institutional investment inflows have increased in the recent & past and the benchmark for EMs equitties have perked up. Is a bull market round the corner? In an IMF working paper, it may be too early to celebrate.

According to the paper, net flows to emerging markets are strongest when global interest rates and risk aversion are both low, as the chart shows.

That’s what worked in favour of emerging markets in the last few years. But that benign scenario now appears set to change, with the US looking to raise interest rates.

D7 0171 12/09/2013 10:30 PM JEDDAH-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
D7 0303 12/09/2013 07:15 PM HANGZHOU-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
QZ 8162 12/09/2013 04:15 PM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
AK 5125 12/09/2013 01:50 AM K. KINABALU-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
AK 5221 12/09/2013 01:00 AM KUCHING-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8163 12/09/2013 04:40 PM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED
D7 0392 12/09/2013 09:15 AM KUALA LUMPUR-WUHAN CANCELLED
D7 0170 12/09/2013 02:35 AM KUALA LUMPUR-JEDDAH CANCELLED

View here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT COMPANY:

Disposed: 29/08/2013 4,224,200
Disposed: 30/08/2013 4,913,500
Acquired: 30/08/2013 6,900
Disposed: 02/09/2013 4,793,000
Disposed: 03/09/2013 1,906,200
Disposed: 04/09/2013 2,007,900
Disposed: 05/09/2013 15,858,120
Disposed: 06/09/2013 1,750,000
Disposed: 09/09/2013 1,804,935

Remember folks, the wrong perceptions, self-delusion, frantically trying to avoid realizing losses, desperately seeking the comfort of other victims, shutting out reality and more can all cost you dearly!

With the current turmoil in EMs, 2H13 earnings will not be very promising for AA! Investors have short memories!

Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent on Thursday. The move comes as a surprise as market participants widely expected the central bank to keep rates on hold after it raised the benchmark rate by 50 basis points in late August in an attempt to prop up the beleaguered rupiah.

The central bank's hawkish stance is largely aimed at curbing weakness in the rupiah, which has fallen over 16 percent against the U.S. dollar year to date, and the country's troubling current account deficit.

Anticipating a perfect storm coming? Well folks, IMF is ever ready to provide their service!

If you know deep down that there is a problem with your investments facing the soon to be a perfect strom, rule of a thumb what will you do? Ride the perfect storm?

Remember folks, the wrong perceptions, self-delusion, frantically trying to avoid realizing losses, desperately seeking the comfort of other victims, shutting out reality and more can all cost you dearly! Hahahahahahah!!

Indonesia announces surprise 25 bps hike in benchmark interest rate to 7.25%. New Zealand to hike rate. India may hike rate. IMF is ever ready!

What next? Careful now!

Expectations are growing that the Federal Reserve will decide next week to begin tapering its monetary stimulus, although last Friday's disappointing U.S. jobs data has convinced many economists that any reduction might be smaller than some had believed.

Still folks, any cut in the Fed's bond buying program would likely boost the dollar and pressure oil and other commodities priced in the greenback.

How about investing in equity markets, folks?

Brent crude futures held steady above $111 a barrel on Thursday as investors waited to see whether diplomatic efforts to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons avert the threat of U.S. military action that could lead to disruption of oil supplies.

Diplomatic efforts to place Syria's chemical weapons under international control intensified on Wednesday while U.N. rights investigators detailed what they called war crimes carried out largely by Syrian government forces in the civil war.

Remember folks, the outlook for Syria's problem remain uncertain as everyone is closely watching how Syria's situation will develop.

Brent crude for October was trading up 5 cents at $111.55 a barrel by 0348 GMT, after gaining 25 cents on Wednesday. Brent hit a six-month high of $117.34 a barrel on Aug. 28, largely on the tensions over Syria.

QE taper, Syrian War, North Korea reactor capable of producing plutonium for weapons, Selldown in EMs, Financial markets turmoil: Formula for a perfect storm?

Time will tell! Heheheheh!!

When asked about the impact of next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, Zhu Min said that volatility could definitely be expected.

"If the rewinding of monetary policy involving purchases of $85 billion to $65 billion, and $35 trillion balances to $1.5 trillion – that's a whole long process. It will involve lots of technical things and the market is not sure how this process will be managed," said Zhu.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is ready to pull the trigger on reserve funds for any emerging economy that faces a current account crisis, the organization's deputy managing director said at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China.

Zhu's comments echo those of IMF chief Christine Lagarde, who in August pledged policy advice and money through various instruments for emerging economies.

IMF is ready but what about you, folks? Are you ready? Still holding on tight to your stock? Hmmmmmm.. bad bad decision! Heheheheheh!!

The one thing I would say is that we should expect volatility. When you have that degree of intervention, stopping it is not going to be a smooth and simple process," Peter Sands, Group CEO of Standard Chartered Bank said.

The comments come amid swelling speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve could begin tapering its asset purchase program at next week's policy meeting.

Are you ready for the selldown, folks? Heheheheheh!!

The Philippine unit of Southeast Asia's largest budget airline will suspend most of its local and regional flights out of Clark.

According to a source, Air Asia Philippines flights to Davao, Kalibo, Hong Kong and Taipei from Clark will be suspended by November.

However, Hong Kong and Taipei flights will resume by December, the source said. So how?

1. Fed policy makers will resume a debate on when to pare $85 billion in monthly bond purchases on their Sept. 17-18 meeting. The U.S. central bank is likely to reduce asset purchases to $75 billion this month, according to a Bloomberg survey of 34 economists.

2. Even after their tumble this year, emerging-market stocks still aren’t more attractive than equities in developed nations, according Marc Desmidt, the head of alpha strategies for Asia Pacific at BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager.

3. “It’s a reality that some of these markets have been oversold, probably pessimism does look a little bit high,” Desmidt said in a Sept. 11 interview on Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. “It’s not surprising to see some bounces there. But more generally I think there is probably more stress for EM.”

WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT COMPANY:

Disposed: 29/08/2013 4,224,200
Disposed: 30/08/2013 4,913,500
Acquired: 30/08/2013 6,900
Disposed: 02/09/2013 4,793,000
Disposed: 03/09/2013 1,906,200
Disposed: 04/09/2013 2,007,900
Disposed: 05/09/2013 15,858,120
Disposed: 06/09/2013 1,750,000
Disposed: 09/09/2013 1,804,935

Investors have short memories!! EPF will follow too? Hmmmmmm.. Time will tell!

So folks, take profit or cut loss while you still can. Minimize you risk! You will rewarded soon!

Remember folks, an investor without investment objectives is like a traveler without a destination. Hahahahahahah!!

Price Performamce:

1 month:
(28/08/13) Rm2.44 - Low
(12/08/13) Rm3.20 - High

6 months:
(28/08/13) Rm2.44 - Low
(05/06/13) Rm3.54 - High

One Year:
(28/08/13) Rm2.44 - Low
(05/06/13) Rm3.54 - High

Historical High: Rm4.00

Will the rally continue to bring AA above Rm3.00? Well folks, to stay above Rm2.60 is already a hugemongous hurdle! Heheheheheh!!

Soon everyone can buy "cheap"! Hahahahahahah!!

Careful now! You have been warned! Please do take profit or cut loss now! You will be rewarded at a very much lower price! Just wait & see! Hahahahahaha!!

Volume Traded:

05/06/2013: 22,814,700 Rm2.62 - Rm2.57
06/09/2013: 10,709,100 Rm2.59 - Rm2.50
09/09/2013: 11,818,000 Rm2.54 - Rm2.50
10/09/2013: 12,214,900 Rm2.58 - Rm2.53
11/09/2013: 16,427,000 Rm2.62 - Rm 2.58

Remember folks a small leak can sink a GREAT ship! Wakakakakakakak!!

Emerging-market equities will still have high volatility in the next few months! Investors have shorts memories!

Hahahahahahahah!!

1. The biggest rally in developing-nation stocks in a year is showing signs of reversing to analysts following technical indicators.

2. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose for six straight days by a total 6.2 percent, the most for the period since September 2012, as prospects for an imminent U.S. strike on Syria eased and economic data for China improved. The relative strength index for the gauge reached 69.9 -- approaching the threshold of 70 that signals a security is poised to decline.

3. “Investors are pausing for a breather,” Joseph Dayan, the London-based head of markets at BCS Financial Group, the biggest trader of stocks in the Moscow Exchange, said by e-mail. “There is not much more than that at this point.”

4. The MSCI Emerging Market Index breached the upper boundary of its Bollinger band on Sept. 10, another technical indicator signaling it could be due for a reversal, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

5. So folks will the rally continue in EMs? Will AA be above Rm2.60 for this week? Time will tell! Hahahahahah!!

Folks, investors will be looking ahead to next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting amid expectations that the central bank could announce a tapering of its bond-buying program.

"The Fed may still be quite dovish and give the market a taper that's on the lighter side—the consensus is around $10 billion," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial.

So folks could this create uncertainty in the equity market? Will there be another round of selldown by foreign funds? Will there be fuel price & interest rate hikes? Will the local currency weaken further? Hmmmmmmmm...!!

Air India Ltd may miss its target of returning to cash profits by 2018 after the local currency weakened sharply against the dollar, increasing the state-run airline’s expenditure on jet fuel, overseas borrowings and aircraft leases.

Folks, it’s a huge hit considering what’s happening in the Emerging Markets as will spend significantly more to buy fuel, on interest costs and for lease payments.

The current scenario may force weaker airlines to shut operations. If the current cost and pricing environment continues with no significant funding in sight, we may see some airlines closer to this reality.

Will AA be able to cruise out unharmed from the perfect storm ahead?

Volume Traded:

05/06/2013: 22,814,700 Rm2.62 - Rm2.57
06/09/2013: 10,709,100 Rm2.59 - Rm2.50
09/09/2013: 11,818,000 Rm2.54 - Rm2.50
10/09/2013: 12,214,900 Rm2.58 - Rm2.53
11/09/2013: 16,427,000 Rm2.62 - Rm 2.58

Profit taking & force selling in the coming soon? Time will tell! Hahahahah!!

Another issue coming out soon, folks!

Satellite imagery suggests that North Korea has restarted a research reactor capable of producing plutonium for weapons at its Yongbyon nuclear complex, a U.S. research institute said on Wednesday.

North Korea said in July it would not give up its nuclear deterrent until Washington ends its "hostile policy" towards Pyongyang, although it was ready to revive nuclear talks.

Washington's longstanding call for North Korea to comply with a 2005 aid-for-disarmament agreement signed by North Korea, its neighbors and the United States. Under that pact, Pyongyang would have dismantled its nuclear program in exchange for economic and energy aid.

How will the US & financila markets react toward the new development? QE easing? Syrian war? And now North Korea? Hmmmmm.... Time will tell!

Hahahahahahha!!

WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT COMPANY:

Disposed: 29/08/2013 4,224,200
Disposed: 30/08/2013 4,913,500
Acquired: 30/08/2013 6,900
Disposed: 02/09/2013 4,793,000
Disposed: 03/09/2013 1,906,200
Disposed: 04/09/2013 2,007,900
Disposed: 05/09/2013 15,858,120
Disposed: 06/09/2013 1,750,000
Disposed: 09/09/2013 1,804,935

Will Wellington and other funds sell more? Time will tell! Careful now, folks!

AirAsia may fall further after failing to get above the MYR2.60 resistance level last week.

Remember folks, a position can be exited as long as the stock stays below MYR2.60, with supports lying at MYR2.33, if the MYR2.45 level is broken.

A close back above MYR2.60, however, could lead to a rebound. Strong resistance is expected at MYR2.85 - RHB Research

Will the rally continue? Will AA stay above 2.60 for this week? Will Dow rally continue? Heheheheheheheh

Time will tell folks! Careful now! Hahahahahahahah!!

QZ 8295 11/09/2013 09:20 PM SURABAYA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
QZ 8206 11/09/2013 07:35 PM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
D7 0237 11/09/2013 12:30 PM PERTH-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
D7 0173 11/09/2013 07:25 AM JEDDAH-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8296 11/09/2013 09:45 PM KUALA LUMPUR-SURABAYA CANCELLED
QZ 8207 11/09/2013 08:20 PM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED
AK 5124 11/09/2013 08:20 PM KUALA LUMPUR-K. KINABALU CANCELLED

Vuiew here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

Folks next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to begin to taper its bond buying purchases, could prove a catalyst to push EMs equities lower.

Happy investing folks!

So far the pain has been most acute in places such as India, Turkey and Brazil. Those countries and others are also struggling with rising inflation and sluggish growth.

Other markets, while not untouched, have suffered less. The Mexican peso and South Korean won have weakened about 2 percent each against the dollar this year, compared with 11 percent for Brazil's real and 18 percent for India's rupee.

Likewise, central banks in Indonesia, Turkey, Ukraine and India have seen the fastest erosion of foreign currency reserves since late May, according to Morgan Stanley calculations.

Folks, when the hot money is gone, the tide will retreat and we will see who is naked on the beach! So folks, do take profit or cut loss now before its toooooo late!

So now which country is next? Off course the EMs, folks! Which airline group has business exposure in the EMs? Heheheheheh!!

Folks as a consequence of Fed tapering, investors hungry for the higher yields offered by emerging market stocks and bonds can no longer sink their money in the developing world indiscriminately, experts say. They will have to become much more selective.

For years, "many emerging markets have just had to sit back and watch the capital flow in. They haven't had to try very hard to attract it," said Morgan Stanley strategist James Lord. "Now they're going to have to work harder. That means reforms."

Can AA cruise out from the perfect storm to come?

Investors bracing for the U.S. Federal Reserve to wind down its monetary stimulus have fled emerging markets in recent months, and while the impact of slow capital flows is likely to be felt for some time, some countries will fare much better than others.

The U.S. central bank is expected to begin trimming its massive USD85 billion bond buying program as early as next week. That will mean fewer Fed created dollars sloshing around the global financial system.

Emerging Markets like Brazil and India, which must import capital to finance spending, will feel the squeeze. Mexico and South Korea, to name two, are less dependent and won't get hit as hard. Then will Malaysia be spared? Hmmmmmm....!!

Good for you Mat! You will be rewarded! Anyone else? Remember folks, Fed tapering has not even started and yet foreign funds are selling slowly & surely. Careful now! Heheheheheheh!!

Will there be a replay of the Asia financial crisis, as some fear?

In the late 1990s, a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment from Thailand triggered a banking and currency crisis. The contagion spread rapidly to neighboring countries (Malaysia) and to Russia and Brazil even as central bankers worked furiously to calm the markets.

But this time, many analysts say the turmoil is unlikely to explode into a full blown crisis because Asian countries are better equipped to deal with sudden shifts in investor sentiment.

How sure are they?

The basic trajectory is familiar: Weaknesses in the real economy and financial vulnerabilities rapidly feed each other in a vicious cycle. Even if the reduction of excessive monetary accommodation in developed economies is slow or deferred, the fundamental frailties of emerging markets current account deficits, inadequate investment returns and high debt levels will prove problematic.

Capital withdrawals will cause **currency weakness, which, in turn, will drive falls in asset prices, such as bonds, **stocks and property.

So will AA fair better than the market (Klse)? Investors have short memories!! Hahahahahahahah!!

Why are investors fleeing Asia?

The looming phase out of the Fed's cheap money policy is having a sobering effect. Investors are being lured back to advanced economies such as the US, where growth is recovering, while Asia's prospects look less attractive as China shifts into a lower gear after years of torrid expansion.

The pain is being felt most in India and Indonesia, where the investor exodus has sent currencies plummeting, threatening to fan inflation and widen current account deficits. The two governments have been forced to step in with measures aimed at boosting confidence.

Also feeling the heat is Malaysia, where the central bank this month slashed its 2013 economic growth forecast to 4.5-5 percent from 6 percent. In Thailand, the economy contracted unexpectedly in the second quarter.

So will the rally continue? Will AA able to cruise out from this perfect storm, perfect? Will AA be above Rm3.00? Will this quarter be profitbale for AA? Investors have short memories! Hahahahahahah!!

Ask yourself this, will the rally continue?

We’re still cautiously optimistic,” Daphne Roth, Singapore-based head of Asian equity research at ABN Amro Private Banking, which oversees about $207 billion, said. “Asia is very polarized and I prefer countries that are running current account surpluses such as China. Liquidity will be withdrawn out of Asia as Fed tapering materializes. That will have a big impact.”

Markets probably won’t shoot much higher unless we have more positive catalysts. Careful now folks as Dow Future is on negative zone! Heheheheheh!!

The Indonesian rupiah and the South Korean won led slides among emerging Asian currencies on Wednesday (11/09/13) as investors booked profits from gains in regional units and stock markets earlier in the week.

Regional units came under pressure as 10-year US Treasury note yield rose to 2.9718 in Asian trading.

Emerging Asian currencies could weaken much further if the 10-year US note yield rises above 3%! So what is going to happen to equity markets? AA back to above Rm3? Hahahahahahah!!

Folks, human psychology is a dangerous thing, and there are some alarmingly standard mistakes that people make again and again.

It is very easy in the heat of the moment, or when subject to stress or temptation, to fall into one of these mind traps.

The wrong perceptions, self-delusion, frantically trying to avoid realizing losses, desperately seeking the comfort of other victims, shutting out reality and more can all cost you dearly.

If you find yourself saying something like, "our stocks have dropped by 30%, but it’s surely best just to hang onto them, isn’t it?" you are seeking confirmation from some other unfortunate in the same situation. You can comfort each other in the short run, but it’s just self-delusion.

Historical high:27/10/11 Rm4.00
One year High: 05/06/13 Rm3.54
One Year Low : 28/08/13 Rm2.44

Selldown in EMs in not done yet. The truth hurts folks!

The rapid rise from the year low of 2.44 to 2.62 suggest there might be profit-taking which will limit gains. Many investors may be ready to book some profit, meaning further gains from here may be curbed.

So what about you, folks? Remember, QE easing by the FED has not even started yet! Careful now!

Any man can make mistakes, but only an idiot persists in his/her error. So folks, don't be one! Hahahahahahahahah!!

As I mentioned yesterday, will the rally continue? No way folks cause you tend to forget the truth as news on QE easing by US should be in the play again! Just wait & see.

You will regret for not selling now, folks! Slowly & surely the foreign funds & now followed by the local funds also, are selling.

Investors have short memories! Careful now! Hahahahahahahaah!!

Folks since early this year, the consensus earnings for 2013 have been revised in an almost consecutive downtrend fashion. Not surprisingly, even at macro level, the nation’s GDP figures during the first two quarters of 2013 came in at below market expectations.

What does that show, folks? Worst still the selldown in EMs is not over yet and that include Malaysia! So sell now and buy later at a very much cheaper price or you will regret.

Don't be an idiot thinking AA going above rm3, folks! Maybe in your dream folks as the next quarter is not going to be good. Hahahahahahahahah!!

KLCI should be volatile for some weeks to come and do expect the market to measuredly regain its upward thrust only towards the end of the year, that is a window dressing uptrend!

Investors have short memories! Please be reminded that a selldown in the EMs is not over yet.

Hahahahahahahahah!!

It is not going to be a smooth ride as improving world’s macro conditions which are precipitated by US economic recovery, is pitted
against higher liquidity risk premium as a result of the QE3 taper.

Selldown in EMs is not done yet. Take profit or cut loss while you still can. Remember folks you can buy later at a very much lower price!

Formula for success: Buy low & sell high, folks! Hahahahahahah!!

Regulated Short Selling On AirAsia:

05/09/13 Rm2.59 1,182,000

06/09/13 Rm2.54 938,500

09/09/13 Rm2.52 2,106,700

10/09/13 Rm2.57 2,054,000 (Latest)

More short selling today? Remember folks, "wall of worry," a fight between bull against bear! Who will emerge a champion for this week? Just wait and see! Careful now! Hahahahahhahah!!

Folks, the market is climbing the proverbial “wall of worry”, volatility generally rises due to the tug-ofwar between the almost equally prominent bullish and bearish forces in the market.

Which one are you, folks? Hehehehehehe!!

AK 1820 10/09/2013 09:50 PM SINGAPORE-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
D7 0303 10/09/2013 07:15 PM HANGZHOU-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
QZ 8162 10/09/2013 04:15 PM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
D7 0331 10/09/2013 06:15 AM PUDONG-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
AK 5125 10/09/2013 01:50 AM K. KINABALU-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED
AK 5221 10/09/2013 01:00 AM KUCHING-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

view here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

Petitioning Ms. Aireen Omar 2This petition will be delivered to:
CEO - Air Asia.ComMs. Aireen OmarAir Asia: Remove the "Processing Fee" imposed for online bookings via credit card

Read more here: http://www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/air-asia-remove-the-processing-fee-imposed-for-online-bookings-via-credit-card?utm_campaign=petition_created&utm_medium=email&utm_source=guides

Remember folks, will the rally continue?

AA is still high at current price. It will sooner or later test the critical support level at Rm2.44? Another issue is the current selldown in EMs is not over yet!

In a bullish market suddenly genius appear but turn dumb when bear takeover. Take good care of your hard earned cash! Hahahahahahahah!!

Remember folks as AA may fall further after failing to get above the MYR2.60 resistance level last week. A position can be exited as long as the stock stays below MYR2.60, with supports lying at MYR2.33, if the MYR2.45 level is broken. A close back above MYR2.60, however, could lead to a rebound. Strong resistance is expected at MYR2.85 - RHB Research

So folks will it close above Rm2.60 to stay bullish? What are you waiting now folks, go any buy more! Support your AA...Go! Go! Go!

As for me.....nope too high! Hahahahahahahahah!!