Below rm3.00 the coming week?

Well folks, judging from the lukewarm response on the AA X ipo the earlier 1 month low at Rm3.02 will be broken!

You think today is cheaper wait for next week! Heheheheheheheheheh!!

Index improving but sadly AA price making a new 1 month low! Signs of further price declining are there so folks, wait till the 2Q13 announcement to decide your entry!

Happy investing, folks!!

Ever wonder why RHB (TP3.94) & CIMB (TP4.00) coming out with new Tps today?

Well folks, thats only long-term price prediction. Whatever it is the 2Q13 will be bad so sell now and buy after the 2Q announcement!

Remember folks, the danger with AA is 48.29% of the issued and paid-up share capital were held by foreigners.

Foreign funds are selling surely and that why the ringgit opened sharply lower against the US dollar.

Folks, the 2Q13 results may not be particularly strong, as traffic volumes were affected by the May 5, Malaysian general election.

This is time to sell and buy back after the 2Q13 announcement where the price will even be cheaper!

Below Rm2.80? Well folks, anything is possible!! Wakakakakakakakak!!

AA X will take delivery of 23 Airbus A330-300 planes over the next four years beginning in July, while it has also placed a firm order for 10 A350-900s.

So how? The beginning of the end? Well folks, only time will tell!!

Latest target price folks!

RHB TP Rm3.94

CIMB TP Rm4.00

Dare to buy, folks? Good luck then!!!!!!!!

Hope you will not be the one swimming naked when the tide goes out!Wakakakakakka!!!

Reuters reported that the IPO, expected to debut by January, was expected to raise about US$250 million for AirAsia X.

Based on Reuters' own calculation, the total IPO of 790.12 million shares could be worth Rm0.97 per share.

The par value of the shares is at Rm0.15 sen a piece - reported Sat, Nov 3, 2012

View here: http://my.news.yahoo.com/airasia-x-ipo-sell-33-3-shares-034004798.html

Investors have short memories!!!!!!!!! Wakakakakakakakakak!!!!!!!

Folks, previously reported AirAsia X USD418m IPO to triple Airbus fleet and expand Asia-Pacific routes.

View here: http://www.keralanext.com/news/2013/06/10/article203.asp

Latest folks, Malaysia's long-haul budget carrier AirAsia X raised about USD310 million in an initial public offering, pricing the deal near the bottom of expectations, a source with direct knowledge of the deal said on Friday.

View here: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/malaysias-airasia-x-prices-310-051634155.html#JOcqxzz

So how now? A staggering USD108mil x rm3.1 = Rm334.8 mil less!!!!!!

You think today price is cheap wait for the coming weeks, folks! It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked.

So folks, do you want to be in that situation? Hahahahahahaha!!

AirAsia has ordered aircraft engines worth a total of USD8.6bn (RM27 billion) to be delivered progressively until 2026, reaffirming its ongoing fleet expansion plans.

On a separate note, its Japan JV will likely be terminated due to management differences with partner ANA. We deem the termination as a positive to stop further cash burn.

Maintain BUY on AirAsia, with an unchanged FV of MYR3.94, premised on a 13x P/E - RHB

To those diehard fans of AA don't you think this is time to buy? Before buying read below:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that the central bank may begin to scale back its $85-billion a month bond buying program later this year if the economy continues to show strength.

49% of AA held by foreigners so the votality will be there.

Weak demand on AAX ipo from retail investors while lower bids from institutional investors. Bad news for AA.

Additional costs of Rm27 billion for engines. 27bil/15yrs/12mtns = an extra cost of rm150 mil a month for engine cost.

What about aircraft & other operating costs? Careful now!

Remember folks, as at 31 December 2012, 48.29% of the issued and paid-up share capital of AA of 2,779,906,580 ordinary shares of RM0.10 each were held by foreigners.

Careful now as most foreign funds are selling slowly & surely as Fed’s plans to wind down stimulus in the coming month.

AA X Bhd co-founder and director Tan Sri Tony Fernandes yesterday conceded that the weak stock market sentiment may have dampen the valuation for the long-haul budget carrier's initial public offering (IPO).

AA X is offering the bulk of its IPO shares to institutional investors, with the bid range of between RM1.15 and RM1.45.

It is also offering the shares to customers, although reports suggested that the take up rate was less than expected.

SunBiz yesterday reported that AA X had increased the portion of shares offered to its employees as well as extended the offer to staff of its parent AA Bhd, a day before it was due to close the retail portion of its IPO.

Hahahahahahahaha......what a spin, folks! The fact weak demand from retail & institutional investors because the AA X ipo price was tooooooooo high! Will AA price be below Rm3.00 in the coming weeks?

Well folks, only time will tell!!! Hahahahahahahah!!

Folks, Alliance Research in its report yesterday initiated coverage on AA X, with a target price of RM1.33 at an indicative IPO price of RM1.45.

"We believe near-term share price performance may be affected by seasonally weak second- and third-quarter results as well as concerns over the impact of the delay in the opening of KLIA2 on its expansion plan.

For now, we prefer AirAsia for exposure to the aviation sector given its cheaper valuation vis-à-vis AA X and lower implementation risks," the research firm added.

Folks, AA X Bhd has bumped up its share offers to its own employees as well as extended it to employees of parent AA Bhd, a day before the long-haul, budget airline is due to close the retail portion of its initial public offering (IPO), say sources close to the company.

It is understood that middle management employees of AA X, who were initially offered some 30,000 shares, received eleventh-hour offers for 50,000 shares more.

AA employees, meanwhile, were sent emails informing them of their eligibility to subscribe to the shares at the same time.

According to one source, emails were sent out to staff of AA on Monday morning, with instructions to send in their applications for shares by the end of the day.

Well folks, the move is believed to make up for the shortfall in subscription for the retail portion, which closes today.

Careful now! Wakakakakakakakakak!!

Janata Party President Subramanian Swamy claimed the FIPB decision clearing the Air Asia proposal was “not legally valid with either the requirement/ need of the aviation sector, the recommendations made by various empowered committees, and in fact, directly contravenes the existing policy as per decision of the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs”.

Terming the proposal as “a gross and blatant fraud”, he urged the Prime Minister to “revoke this impugned fraudulent Air Asia deal”, warning he would approach the courts through a Public Interest Litigation if no such action was taken.

So how now, folks?

AA X's IPO has been oversubscribed by more than three times by institutional investors, three people familiar with the matter said.

But folks, most bids came in at the top-end of the indicative range of 1.15 ringgit to 1.45 ringgit a share. So how?

Careful now, folks!!!!!

Airline stocks are highly cyclical and there’s loads of competition out there. Share price movements can be influenced by air passenger demand patterns and macroeconomic factors, said the analyst, who specialises in aviation equities.

Although demand within the Asia-Pacific aviation market is growing, there is also a sizeable amount of new capacity coming onstream from other airlines in the region. If excess capacity is not taken up, competition between the airlines could be severe, he added.

AA X, a long-haul budget airline and sister company to high-flier, AA, has plenty of new seats to fill in the coming years. The airline’s expansion plans will see the carrier take delivery of 22 Airbus A330-300 during the next four years up to 2017, tripling its fleet of aircraft from 11 currently.

Folks, clearance to AA India deal is illegal, says Subramanian Swamy

The Janata Party president will write to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh this week opposing the approval!

So how now?

n a special ceremony here today, AirAsia announced that it has ordered additional CFM LEAP-1A engines and CFM56-5B engines to power the 100 Airbus A320 aircraft it ordered in a deal announced last December and signed a comprehensive long-term service agreement to support its fleet.

The order, which comprises LEAP-1A engines to power 64 A32neos and CFM56-5B engines to power 36 A320ceo aircraft along with 5 CFM-56B spare engines and 9 LEAP-1A spare engines, is valued at $8.6 billion U.S. at list price, including a 20-year RPFH (Rate per Flight Hour) agreement, under the terms of which CFM will guarantee maintenance costs on a dollar per engine flight hour basis.

Folks, US8.6 bil x 3 = a staggering extra costs of Rm25.8 billion in the making!

"They said as a gesture of goodwill, they would contribute RM2,000 into my Air Asia member account for future flights. They said they considered the case closed and resolved," he said.

"However, we feel cheated by the ordeal. The students were emotionally stressed that day, thinking we would be forced to cancel the whole trip."

Read more here: http://my.news.yahoo.com/airasia-delay-forces-rm15-000-extra-expenses-065900282.html

If Air Asia X is so good, why then did the successful and eccentric Airliner, Sir Richard Branson pulled out in around June 2012?

Well folks, read more here: http://anotherbrickinwall.blogspot.com/2013/06/11-suspicous-reasons-not-to-apply-air.html

AirAsia X, a long-haul budget airline and sister company to high-flier, AirAsia, has plenty of new seats to fill in the coming years. The airline’s expansion plans will see the carrier take delivery of 22 Airbus A330-300 during the next four years up to 2017, tripling its fleet of aircraft from 11 currently.

“Should AirAsia X have to discount heavily to fill its planes, then yields may suffer, leading to lower profitability,” said the Hong Leong analyst.

He reckons the fair value for the IPO price is closer to RM1.20 than the RM1.45 now being offered to retail investors.

Read more here: http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/233241

B K Sidhu’s source said “AirAsia X IPO over subscription rate is 3 to 4 times”!

Read more here: http://weechookeong.com/2013/06/18/b-k-sidhus-source-said-airasia-x-ipo-over-sub-subscription-rate-is-3-to-4-times/

Folks, only 10% of the blue forms for the retail portion (meant for eligible air passengers) for AA X Bhd’s IPO have been taken up, said a banker familiar with the exercise.

This effectively means that this retail portion of the IPO is under-subscribed by 90%. The other two retail portions cover the public and employees.

Folks, in these circumstances AA could perhaps benefit from one less affiliate as it would free up resources – intellectual and physical – for its five other markets.

However, if AA's press release is taken at face value, the commitment to the Japan market remains:

“AA continues to be optimistic and committed to Japan and sees the potential for a low cost airline to thrive in the market and would not rule out any options to make this happen.”

Another JV, AA Philippines, is doing only slightly better - after a net loss of MYR93 million (USD30 million) for FY2012 and MYR20 million (USD6 million) in 1Q2013.

The carrier still only operates a fleet of two aircraft even though it has been more than a year since it was launched.

After a rocky first year and several network changes, AA Philippines is now attempting to turn the corner by partnering with another Philippine LCC, Zest.

Thai AA is also keen to accelerate expansion as it faces intensifying competition from Nok and the prospect of a new joint venture, again with Lion involved.

Folks, AA India, which aims to launch services in Oct-2013, is yet another entity which will need aircraft and attention. There are huge opportunities in India – but also challenges.

Now folks, where to park the the aircraft it initially intended for Japan???

Folks, the problems in Japan come at a time when AA faces a new challenge in its and very profitable original home market of Malaysia, where its arch-rival Lion has launched a new joint venture.

Meanwhile the group is battling to increase its presence in Lion’s home market of Indonesia, where its affiliate Indonesia AA is also preparing for an IPO.

So how?

Also, as the AA media release points out, it was not just an inter-airline management issue; the words “and operating from Narita” point to the disadvantage for the JV of being based at a substantial distance outside Tokyo, as well as being head to head with Jetstar Japan, also based there.

Peach by contrast, has Osaka’s Kansai low cost market virtually to itself.

According to the AA Group most recent accounts, AA Japan incurred a net loss of MYR97 (USD31 million) million in calendar 2012 and MYR67 million (USD21 million) in 1Q2013.

The financial situation in Japan has been deteriorating. In the previous quarter, 4Q2012, AA Japan incurred a significantly smaller loss of MYR40 million (USD13 million).

Remember folks, AA Japan currently operates only four A320s but had been planning to expand its fleet to seven aircraft by the end of 2013.

Folks, it is no secret that Jetstar Japan has been losing money at this early stage in its roll-out, but it has been delivering relatively good operating statistics and is embarked on a long term strategic mission and parents Qantas and JAL have been longstanding partners too.

Moreover the Jetstar brand is already well recognised in Japan, thanks to several years of international operation by its Australian-based long haul arm.

Peach (with Hong Kong part owners) too has apparently quietly been the best achiever, most recently reporting a 78% load factor for May-2013, with an 81% on time performance.

But the AA-ANA partnership has not been a happy place. Although there was an excellent rapport between the heads of the two organisations, lower down the body the chemistry simply did not match.

And when a low cost airline is forced to adopt high cost practices, the flaw is unavoidably fatal.

In 2012, with no less than three new LCCs entering the market, all joint ventures with ANA (Peach and AA Japan) or JAL (Jetstar Japan).

There is no doubt that, even despite their small size, there has already been a mini-revolution in the country’s aviation system and among travellers.

Indeed folks, in the domestic market, only Jetstar Japan has achieved more than a 2% share.

However folks, its joint venture in Japan is facing problems where management tension is threatening to derail the JV.

Both parties are going to explore if they can still work together or else dissolve the JV.

Japan aside, AA is awaiting for the air operators licence to begin operations in India.

There it has a joint venture with one of India's biggest conglomerates, Tata Sons and property tycoon, Arun Bhatia.

Remember folks, AA has a 49:30:21 equity in the joint venture with Tata Sons and Arun holding the balance respectively.

So the question now, will the JV be any different from Japan? Again folks, only time will tell!!

Folks, according to AA the ordering of the 100 Airbus A320s was part of the airline's strategy to add routes and increase flight frequencies to maintain profitability against intense competition.

So with that order AA has a record 475 narrow body aircraft on its order list with Airbus.

Remember folks, the extra aircraft will give AA ample capacity to build on its market leadership and dominance.

AA has operations in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan.

Folks, AA has invested heavily, a staggering order record of 475 aircraft with 124 planes been delivered, just to stay ahead of emerging rivals.

Remember folks, the purchase of about 60 engines worth US$1bil is for the balance 100 planes order earlier.

Balance 40 engines still pending!!

Folks, AA is expected to sign a major deal for the purchase of about 60 engines worth over US$1bil at the Paris Air Show next week, sources said.

The engine supplier is the same party for 80 engines the airline had bought last year for its A320 aircraft in a deal which was worth US$1.6bil.

A maintenance, overhaul and repair contract is also likely to be signed for the 60-odd aircraft, according to the sources.

Remember folks, these 60 are part of the 100 additional A320 aircraft the AA had ordered last December, but then it did not pick an engine supplier.

Well folks, another extra expenses in the making! You think today is cheap, just wait & see!!!!!

Hahahahahahahahahahah!!

Folks, WSJ said the AA Japan venture between AA and ANA Holdings Inc. has been unprofitable since it started operations in August 2012.

Will AA India be any different? Well folks, only time will tell!!!!!

Careful now!!!!!!!!! Wakakakakakakakkakaka!!!!!!

TP 3.98 MIDF

TP 4.00 CIMB

TP 4.20 ALLIANCE

Don't you think the price is cheap now, folks? Dare to buy?

Investors have short memories!!!!!!!!! Hahahahahahahahah!!

Folks, management tension is threatening to scupper a budget-airline venture between AA and the parent company of All Nippon Airways, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has reported.

Will the forign funds be in the selling or buying mode? Time will tell!

Hahahahahahahah!!

TP 3.00 MAYBANK

TP 2.90 HWANGDBS

TP 2.80 AMMB

Folks, short-term investor are getting hurt, but they are long-term investor now.

So how now? Hahahahahahahahah!!

“Now Everyone Can Buy AirAsia X shares 10 times above its par value of RM0.15″

http://weechookeong.com/2013/06/11/now-everyone-can-buy-airasia-x-shares-10-times-above-its-par-value-of-rm0-15/

Folks, Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility in relation to the market.

By definition, the market has a beta of 1.0, and individual stocks are ranked according to how much they deviate from the market.

A stock that swings more than the market over time has a beta above 1.0.

If a stock moves less than the market, the stock's beta is less than 1.0.

High-beta stocks are supposed to be riskier but provide a potential for higher returns; low-beta stocks pose less risk but also lower returns.

Folks, AA gets 80 percent of its earnings from Malaysia, but it has invested heavily towards expanding in its operating markets - with a total fleet of 124 planes - to stay ahead of emerging rivals including Lion Air's Malindo Airways.

So the question folks, how long can AA be profitable with higher expenses in the coming Q & FY?

Well folks, only time will tell!

AA said in a stock exchange filing that it would not rule out the "dissolution" of AA Japan, a low-cost carrier based at Tokyo's Narita airport.

Since its launch, AA Japan has failed to track its proposed business plan due to the inability to manage costs.

So folks, will AA India be any different? Only time will tell!!

The intensifying competition in Malaysia is part of a wider battle for low cost carrier (LCC) dominance between AA and privately held Lion Air, which has placed huge aircraft orders and plans to use its dominance in Indonesia to expand in Asia.

A Singapore-based aviation analyst at Standard & Poor's, said that while Malindo was not yet established enough to be a big worry for AA, the Malaysia-based firm would be under pressure in the coming months from the aggressive pricing.

"That could also result in AA's bottom line being affected as they will have to retaliate in some ways, which means erosion in yields."

AA’s subsidiaries, like AA Philippines and AA Japan, made substantial losses in 1QFY13.

On a collective basis, AA’s share of losses from the new joint ventures and associates was RM93.2 million (+500% y-o-y).

Prolonged losses will require AirAsia to make an equity injection, or worse, write off some of the business altogether.

Downgrade to hold at RM3.24 with a target price of RM3: AA’s first quarter (1Q) was mixed.

The core airline businesses in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia performed largely to expectations but all the joint ventures and associates disappointed.

MIB.

On 22-5-2013 Ganesh Sahathevan wrote in his blog entitled “Would you buy what Richard Branson gave away: The Air Asia X IPO seems grossly over-priced”.

Just a reminder, during the height of the MAS-AirAsia share swap in August 2011, Tan Sri Azman Mokhtar, the MD of Khazanah, has once commented to several bloggers that the option for Khazanah to buy 10% of the shares of AA X under the infamous “MAS-AirAsia share swap” was a “DODGY DEAL“.

Read more here: http://weechookeong.com/2013/06/11/now-everyone-can-buy-airasia-x-shares-10-times-above-its-par-value-of-rm0-15/

Meanwhile, it is also important to note that while AirAsia has always boasted on 'Now Everyone Can Fly', time to time checks on ticket prices have proven that there are occassions where MAS tickets are cheaper.

In the instance of this new Vietnam package, or a normal return flight to and from Ho Chi Minh City, MAS with its RM880 package, appears to be the cheaper option for a quick getaway to Vietnam.

Read more here: http://www.malaysiandigest.com/news/48-commentary/351491-airasia-can-everyone-really-fly.html

AA PH scales back flights to HK, KL, Taiwan starting June 15.

Philippines AA said in a statement that AA flights between Clark to Kuala Lumpur LCCT will be reduced from 10 times a week to 3 times a week with all flights operated by AA Malaysia.

Clark to Hong Kong will return to daily schedule from 10 times a week while flights to Singapore will now depart every Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday from 7 times a week. Flight frequency to Taipei will also be reduced from daily to 4 times a week.

No reason was stated for the reductions and Marianne Hontiveros, Philippines AA CEO, has not responded to a request for comment.

The company said that affected guests can choose to fully refund their flight bookings, be offered a “credit shell for the same value” with a 90-day validity, and change the flight within 30 days with no added penalty.

AirAsia squeezed at home by perky new budget carrier

Read more here: http://in.news.yahoo.com/airasia-squeezed-home-perky-budget-carrier-060357479.html

'AirAsia played a role in cost overruns and delays'

View here: http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/232307