@chon99 Add only if you have done your dd. Cos swinging down 10% is norm when the stock has reached 52 week high and broke new highs

Today large sell down is a reminder to myself that we really must not be overconcentrated on 1-2 stock. I am still vested in YTLs but it is clear that this ride is only going to be more volatile in the next few weeks as the financials will only be out in Feb and there is now more coverage due to the massive run up over share price. Hence expectations are likely to be divergent for a while and there are more professional traders into the stock as well. The large quantities wielded by them can easily outswing any retail sentiment and analysis. It is a big boy game and honestly, such a game is not easily for retail folks as they will also more insider insight and trackers of performance. Eg while we can have potential earnng forecast , it is difficult to analyse capital funding plans ,debt repayment or share rights and if any potential new acquistions and dilution. these are all major moves a company can make and large inst usually are better able to predict them from news from the market

@dragon328 Thanks for all your sharing. You have helped many folks. So a BIG THANK YOU.. I do want to share a word of caution for all- Please dont get too overly concentrated in 1 or 2 stock in your personal investment portfolio. I actually sold down YTL and YTL earlier this year to reduce concentration and take back capital. I view these 2 stocks are great but we must not get obsessed with them and lose the focus of diversification. Also, we must always be willing to venture to new grounds. They will appear and like YTLs, they may not appear to be so initially .

YTL is now like crypto and the gains have attracted a lot of attention. But definitely, there will still be a limit. USA has many great stocks that rose in similar manner and the investors rode the wave. But as individual retail investor, we must avoid getting too greedy and sink all our life savings into 1 stock or sector. Life doesnt always work the way we plan.

Hi Dragon328 and Pinky - thanks for clarifying. Understand now. Was a bit confused for a while but i guess the main driver for YTL corp non controlling interest profit is YTL power .. so it make sense now. Nevertheless, it does seem like YTL corp also has done a rather massive turn around for the other biz which was loss making last year...

All the best. Hope to see 1.7 as dragon said in the coming weeks... (fingers crossed)

Hi, can anyone help explain what is the non controlling interest in YTL Corp ? What business is in that segment ? Thanks

Good write up dragon328 ! I think Jordan may have a bit more disappointments for a while but agree PowerSeraya should remain strong.

All counters that have big movement have such comments. But the shares dont move by these comments. so dont bother . But it will move based on the announcement that most of us are waiting for . I think quite a bit of profit taking has taken place.. so some players have hedged their bets already.

Hi Dragon328, Thanks for answering my post. I am expecting a bit more profit than you for Q1 2024. Maybe i am over estimating... my low end estimate is actually 800m MYR and i view it is should be closer to 1bn like last quarter ... I agree with what you are saying . Well, i have rather optimistic projections for YTLP as well but am a bit more cautious for Q2 /Q3 2024. I have a view that some headwinds have been building up.. and the projections should be more flattish or dovish from Q3 2024 onward.

Rebalancing the portfolio is what i am considering and surprising, I am actually considering what a stock you mention ie sell ytlp and buy PB bank

Hi dragon328 , what are your expectations for 30 Sept quarterly earnings report ? Also, since you have been keeping this stock for a rather long term , i think you may have probably gotten 200-300% returns ? Any plans to sell and take back capital but leave the profits to enjoy ? Good to hear your views on this.

Hi folks, i know some of us can get upset when our views are not recognised and we can get upset when someone has a different view on stock. But can i request we do NOT respond by attacking each other or calling each other liar. Eg I fully agree with dragon328 that we are here to make money as well as to value each other opinion. If someone makes a claim that they can predict the market like a guru but have no proof to back it, ignore him. And those who are giving good views and analysis like dragon 328 and cgtan2020 should be appreciated because they do provide quite good analysis. If you want to fight a war, there are so many other forums you can fight lah.. no need to fight here

Just wondering , how long have some of you been holding on to this stock ?

80 cents ! my goodness.. you are expecting a 30-40 percent price drop ?

And to add on, if YTLP continues or does a strategy of keeping spare capacity running to cover such positions , then it loses its optimal generation "efficiency" with a hope of market opportunities in pool . But i dont know if these opportunities will always be there. So it is hard to say which is a better decision.

@moncmondo87 Dont be too happy with S$4500 /MWh spike. It can work both ways for the gencos. If they are not able to cover their contractal positions, then they will be losing a lot of money. Even with spare units in YTLP, running up an unit to capture such short term peaks is hard. I will prefer a higher retail margin book than gains from such short term trading pool positions. It can be a windfall or a big disaster for that month. 1 day loss can make or break the whole month P&L

We are likely to see good results in Aug. But must wait patiently. This is why investing is not thr same as trading. Those who are trading tends to do quick adjustment to trade whenever news are positive or negative. if they can get 5% gain in a position , they may take profit immediately.

Dragon strategy and mine seem to more fundamental analysis. So we tend to hold long term. most of positions are at least 1 year. i seldom change them unless i see a more attractive value buy.

And YTLP is looking very attractive !

the panic sellers may have bought back at a low.

The Edge Singapore | EMA’s energy price cap to have ‘minimal impact’ on Citi’s forecast for Sembcorp
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/emas-energy-price-cap-have-minimal-impact-citis-forecast-sembcorp

i view that the price drop on sembcorp is not right. they are so big a company across so many countries and not just in utilities but development of land as well. to have a 9% drop just because of a news that has uncertain impact.. and moreover temporary measure.. ayioh , shows that many investors really dont understand the business and just dump based on price action

@dragon328 I dont know how anyone calculates exposure to spot market. Let me start to explain - The gencos have a contracted position (retail) and then any excess generation - they will sell to the pool. Why will the generator not sell all their excess to the pool ? Because they may not want to cause price separation (ie depress pool prices unnecessary and hence their portfolio pool position will also be reduced. ) and / or the machine availability. YTLP has more units available than Sembcorp but that does not mean they can push everything cos YTLP units are rather old. All the 3 big gencos Tuas , Senoko and YTL have a lot of old units and these unit cannot be used in normal running mode cos they will not be able to compete effectively and get dispatched.

When we analyse YTL pool exposure, we can only see the margins they earn. But that MWH exposure may be very small. Imagine 10MWh earning $4000/MWh margins (ie less fuel cost) and 100MWh earning $400/MWh margins... Both are the same gains.. In reality, pool exposure gains in recent months are likely the former as opposed to the latter. EMA TPC reduces that ability for these gencos to earn this extraordinary profit in the former case.

So ignore calculating this pool exposure and profit. It is like icing on the cake. The main focus should be on the retail margins. ie the contracted positions. Have they been healthy ? If yes, then we will fly to the moon !

@Super911 and @Dragon328 I think the proof of the pudding on whether YTLP will make $3-4bn in 1 year is whether they can make >600m next quarter ie end 30 jun but announced in Aug. I am personally hoping that they hit 1bn . If so then Dragon328 analysis is spot on... and all shareholders can start to fly to the moon !

@hng33 Your remark on how singapore free market works for electricity is not very accurate. You may wish to read this : https://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Handbook/NEMS_111010.pdf

In specific - how CFD hedges wor

@dragon328 - Ok so i get your point of vesting contract is that EMA does consultation with industry players?

Honestly, i wont bet on that. EMA will just do what EMA thinks is best to achieve their objectives.

For example - you may wish to see how EMA handled the electricity futures "consultation" when it was launched and where that has led to now. What a waste of tax payers monies.

Nevertheless, because i am long position, i will also say this, today is really a good day for those who short sell. But i dont think there were many. Most (i think) are just cutting losses as mentioned. Or maybe also taking profits. It had a good run up for a quite a while.

@valueinvestor 88 i only know of hyflux that went bankrupt for the gencos. There are only 6 key Gencos in SG. YTLP , Senoko, PLP, Tuas Power, Keppel and Sembcorp. The rest are very much smaller or small plants serving their own requirements eg shell or exxon

@dragon328 We are aligned. SG gov can build more efficient machines. The commercial aspect of managing that will the challenge. I am sure they will engage highly paid consultants that will give them inputs. Ha ha.


On your point of vesting contract - i am not sure if i understood your point. Is your point - a. Consumers are willing to accept vesting price and the methodology ? or b. The gov will use the vesting contract to sell electricity to their own generator ?

If it is (a) - Well , i will put it this way... Everyone wants cheaper price. If the whole market goes on vesting price when it is cheaper and when it is more expensive, everyone wants to go retail... Will there really be retail market ? Gencos are not that silly to keep retail market moving anymore if this is the situation. SG market is also very small. Once one of the major player exits or ceases to function - i think the market dynamics will instantly change. We saw that when the independent retailers exited the market and that brought about the profit for gencos.

If your point is (b), i dunno. It is possible but i think this does not mean lesser headache for the gov. Remember, the gov does not want to fund this. If they do this on a prolong basis, then SG gov has basically gone the same route as the transport - ie delist SMRT. What is the outcome of that : We are now seeing no bus for schools and no drivers for our buses as the transport companies cannot cope with the increased demand and cost .. Something will give way so and this will require a lot of gov intervention...

So all in all, a lot of headache for sg gov .. so maybe that is why they are all so highly paid.. ha ha

Anyway, any new build in SG will take at least 3 year. So for now, this move by the gov is just like the ABSD in SG property market. A regulatory tool but cannot impact fundamentals of demand and supply of capacity . That part - the market will have to sort it out internally with all these new regulations

@dragon328 - for efficiency of machines - I think SG gov can be as good or even better. But the problem is commercial running of this as baseload. How to maintain it and what capacity and will it breach market rules. If they run at baseload, how will they sustain it without making sg consumers bear too much a cost .. All these factors makes the sg gov work very difficult. Also please note that sg gov does not have a retailer license. So cannot sell direct to household ? can they sell to SP power a related gov - possible. But it will have to open tender competition. If it is not an open tender competition, then how will they price it ? And if the sg gov plant itself has any forced outage, what happens ? is the SG gov willing to set in to "pay the difference" for the pool price spike vs the contracted price ? Wow... i dunno man... So it is all these complications that makes me laugh and wonder how all this will work. But i see the end game and view that all in all, gencos like YTL P etc can adjust their position. SG consumers cannot and they will be one bearing this additional "regulator" tool . It should be debated but i know this is a tough topic so unless an insider from the industry speaks out, then this kind of issues will never be surfaced

I think the only person i really appreciate in this forum is dragon328. His analysis especially on the overseas biz for YTLP is very useful for me. He is quite good or among the best i have seen so far from the research team that understands the utilities market dynamics and what i do from due diligence in this market as well.

@alex chua - you may need to read how the sg gov plans to build their generators. Are they planning to cap pool price or retail price. Like i said, understand the difference between retail vs pool. I doubt SG gov is planning to use their new capacity to sell to the retail market. That is not the plan. For the record, i think SG gov building these new capacity is super bad news for SG consumers. They just dont know it yet. Cos who in the world is paying for this new capacity ? SG governement ? dream on. it is a cost that will be channelled back to SG consumers.

@alex chua - Power generation players in SG washed out ? Why ? This is a cap to the pool price market. Not the retail market. If you are not familiar with the pool price and retail markets dynamics in SG gencos, then please research a bit before you make such a statement

@dragon328 Price cap for SG electricity for pool market is $4500 /MWh not $5000 MWh.
Your analysis has been useful and i will like to thank you for it.

I think many people are selling, so i will thank all the sellers in advance. I will follow the buy and hold YTLP as i am optimistic of their financials. If you think about it, this news from EMA means what ? It means that the gencos like YTLP have been making so much money until the governement has to step in. And electricity cannot be so high profits from the gencos to prevent singapore economy from being impacted. So no choice, government has to put on the breaks like property prices in Singapore.

So this price cap news should not be viewed negatively in such a manner but not many people will believe. So it is ok, i will continue to hold and let the results in Aug show for itself