Enough is said, no more time wasting here. Good bye

When an equity analyst ceases coverage on a stock, the analyst either sees no near term catalyst for the stock, or he is not able to get positive response from the company management on his requested information.

In either case, I see red flags. Of course, there are stocks that go up after an equity analyst ceased coverage, but I think these are limited isolated cases.

I wont buy into this stock at current price and am glad that wallstreetrookie is also out of this.

The market out there is so so bad with many external uncertainties and locally GE15 coming up soon. We do not even know who will be the state government for Perak in November. Why risk putting your money into this stock at record high with no obvious fundamental news to support the rally?

I do not know the intention of the company directors pushing up share price and why TreeTopView is so intense in defending the stock. I don't really know how many retail investors have bought this stock, but looking at the heavy volumes of this stock since it started this rally from 60 sen, I guess quite a lot of retail investors are in.

I just feel that something is not right, and there is nothing fundamentally good to support the strong price rally. I personally feel that it is a good opportunity to take profit after the strong run up.

A 50% rise in share price from 60 sen to 90 sen in past few months is itself a remarkable achievement when the broader market went down.

It is dangerous to chase it high at this price without knowing the reason behind the current rally. It is equally risky to hold on for higher prices just bcoz you may know the company directors wanted to push it high.

My intention is noble, just wanted to give a timely warning to fellow retail investors to take profit while you can.

TreeTopView can launch personal attack on me just like what he has been doing here in this forum on anyone who criticised this company. But he may be just a puppet who knows nothing about the company financials. I bet he does not even hold any share in this company.

If you have something more substantial to debate with me on the company financials and valuation, you are welcome. But if you just want to do personal attack on anyone who sounds alarm on this stock, then you pls just save your time.

You need to do much better to convince us on why this stock is not over-valued.

Vtrade, yes Perak may be in a good state for more development and this company started it well in Perak. It was its unique position in Perak transportation segment that has attracted me to study this company and its potential.

Unfortunately, things just went sideways with the company getting less transparent, especially after PFF had ballooned to half of total earnings in past 2 years, and the company share price defied market trend in a manipulated rally.

wallstreetrookie, what you said above just shows that you are just a rookie who knows nothing about stock investment, or just a gambler / trader who just listen to hearsay and trade on rising stock for short term profits.

I am not here to short this stock and there is no such instrument for me to short it here. I just wanted to give a timely advice for fellow retail investors to get out of this stock when it is trading at record high for no obvious good reason. The current share price rally is likely a manipulation by company directors with some other parties like TreeTopView to lure retail investors in or to push up share price for the company to do another private placement or right issue.

Of course we know that companies gear up for new projects, but don't you need to go one step further to know the capex requirement of any new project, the expected returns from investing in such a new project, where the funding should come from, how it will impact the company gearing ratio and debt servicing ability, how it will impact the company operating cashflows and its ability to declare dividends, and whether the project is feasible or not, how much IRR you can derive from such a project, is there any better project?

Don't just talk big and talk at high level, it only shows that you know NOTHING about the company and the projects!

I suggest you just hide away enjoying your weekend and not come out here and talk BLANK.

If you know the company well, why not disclose to us where the company earned the Project Facilitation Fee from? From which state, which state authority, which projects? Why most of these PFF were done through a private company which made a loss?
Who are behind this private company? Why didn't it make any profit but losses by being a middle man for these PFF projects?
How much of company revenue and earnings for Q1 and Q2FY2022 was from PFF?
How much PFF contribution can we expect more in remaining FY2022 and in FY2023?

How much earnings will be left in the company without PFF contribution?
What would be the valuation then when no PFF contribution anymore?

How much capex will need to be spent to complete Bidor? Where will funding be coming from for this capex? You mentioned above that there were more than one project ongoing at the company, what projects are those besides Bidor? How much capex is required for those other projects? What would be the expected returns and IRR for those new projects? How much more fund can the company draw down from the sukuk program? If the RM400m sukuk is fully drawn down, what would be the funding plans for all those other projects and the Tronoh terminal the company is planning for?

With all the existing projects and capex requirements, how much would the company operating cashflows be after accounting for these capex and higher interest expenses? How much cashflows will be left for dividend distribution? Looking at the operating cashflows, I think the company cannot even sustain a dividend payout of 3.0 sen per year until Bidor terminal completes in 2H2023 and rentals income kick in to offset against the higher debt service.

Why are you so scared and panicked in jumping in to defend the stock??
Why would you care who I am? I have not changed any username, just first time registered.

Why have you been actively promoting this stock? What is your agenda?

You know very well this stock is not worth even 50 sen at current earnings, why are you still encouraging retail investors to buy in? bringing them to holland?

TreeTopView, what you could do was just to be-rate my comments? You are not able to come out with a single good argument to defend the stock, absolutely NOTHING!!!!!!

Yes, I do not know how much total capex for the Bidor teminal Ptrans is building if the company does not disclose it. We as retail investors can only estimate based on the reported quarterly results. Now as you seem to know a lot about the company, please tell us now how much total capex is budgeted for Bidor terminal. Do not simply act that you know a lot but in fact you know nothing!

Or even if you know the data, you will be afraid to disclose anyway. Lets face the fact lah, the capex for Bidor is definitely more than RM133 million, and the expected rental income from this Bidor terminal will be tiny, and not be sufficient to even cover the interest expenses.

When you see no reason why the share price of Ptrans should run up from 60 sen to 90 sen, then just take profit as the directors are kind enough to support it.

It may still be a good company and I will take a re-look at it again when the share price slides towards 50 sen.

Hello, this is 2022 and you think people still believe in this kind of story of bumped up earnings to drive up share price? You think funds like EPF will believe in such story anymore, after what they have seen and suffered from SerbaDK?

Companies like SerbaDK can cheat on reporting very good accounting profits, but they cannot cheat on their balance sheet and cashflows lah. When a company's debts are increasing and it keeps asking money from shareholders by doing private placements or right issues, you need to be alert.

To earn project facilitation fee of RM39 million a year?? This is a joke that auditors circulate around.

It implies that the company has advised on projects with total development value of RM39m / 2% = RM1.95 billion, based on a typical 2% fee earned as project consultant

Which state government or state transport department has such a budget to consider building bus terminal projects worth RM1.95 billion?? Pls tell us.

If you cannot disclose the projects and clients, then better remove all such dubious contributions and make the accounts clean.

I would prefer reading a clean set of accounts focusing on the core businesses, so that we can do proper analysis of the financial performance and prospects of each business segment. Now nobody knows how much of the reported figures are real core earnings.

The company has stated that from 2022 it foresees lower contribution from Project Facilitation Fees which were abnormally high in past two years.

If PFF makes up about 50% of total pretax profit for FY2022 as for FY2021, then net profit for FY2022 excluding PFF will be just about RM31 million or EPS 4.45 sen, making the PER at 20.2x very expensive for Ptrans

Even if we assume PFF makes up just 30% of total profits, then EPS for FY2022 will be about 6.2 sen excluding PFF, so PER for Ptrans at 90 sen will be about 14.5x still expensive for a company with virtually no growth and with high debts

On valuation, the company reported net profit of RM31 million for 6 months ended 30 June 2022, or EPS of 4.45 sen annualised to 8.9 sen.

For benefits of doubt, if we take the face value of the above earnings per share, Ptrans is valued at 10x PER at current price of RM0.90.

Total dividends declared for 6 months to June 2022 were 1.55 sen, annualised to 3.1 sen, so dividend yield is just 3.4% which is about the same level of fixed deposit rates.

With its ballooning debt piles and increasing interest expenses, coupled with capex requirements for the construction of Bidor terminal and upcoming Tronoh bus terminal, how much cash flows will be left available for dividend distribution?? tiny

TreeTopView, what you have been promoting was just the technical chart aspect of the stock, citing resistance and support, and directors buying etc.

You have failed to mention anything good on the fundamental side and reported accounting:
- the fact is that Ptrans' total debts have increased to RM320 million as of 30 Jun 2022, you have conveniently avoided talking anything on the ballooning debt mountains
- cash hold has dropped to just RM46.9m, a 42% drop from 30 June 2021
- finance cost for Q2FY2022 increased 10% from last year Q2FY2021
- operating cashflows for 6 months to 30 June 2022 were just RM51.3 million but capex was more than double that at RM133.6 million
- due to tight cashflows, Ptrans had to draw down term loan of RM40 million and another RM10 million from revolving credits, even after it raised RM37 million from private placement
- quarterly revenue and pretax profit for Q2FY2022 were a tag higher than that for Q1FY2022, how convenient?
- no mention of how much the company earned from Project Facilitation Fee (PFF) in last 2 quarters. The concern is that PFF still made up about 50% of the company total pretax profit as in FY2021
- no mention of how much total capex Ptrans will spend on building the Bidor bus terminal which is scheduled to be completed in 2H 2023, but capex spent as of 30 Jun 2022 has already shot past RM133 million. Would total capex be over RM200 million when Bidor terminal is completed in 2H 2023? Would it make any sense for such a huge capex for a bus terminal in a small town like Bidor which has small population base?
- The company disclosed that it has signed up TF Mart as the anchor tenant at Bidor terminal taking up 52,000 sf of commercial space. The company does not disclose the tenancy rate but based on typical TF Mart rentals of about RM1.00 psf, the potential rental income to Bidor terminal will be just RM52k per month and RM600k per year. It seems like it will be tough act for Bidor terminal to collect enough rentals to cover even the interest costs of the debts taken to build it (eg. RM200 million x 4% = RM8 million interest costs a year)

Public Invest ceased coverage citing "We are ceasing coverage on Perak Transit Berhad (PTB) due to limited re rating catalyst, with expected developments accounted for and priced in while we redeploying resources to widen stock coverage.". Their words, not yours or mine.

Of course the statement above was just a standard excuse used when an equity analyst ceases coverage on a stock, don't be so naive lah.

If the statement is true, it shows that the analyst indeed saw limited re-rating catalyst in this company. Public Invest covers so many equity stocks, they could well drop coverage on other stocks, why Ptrans?

If a stock has good growth prospects and nothing wrong in reported accounts, why would an analyst cease coverage on it? Think.. and think again, my friend

Who says equity analysts are only for SELL SIDE?? Stxpid or what??

Just check and get your fact right!

over 90% of analysts' calls are BUY calls, less than 10% are SELL call.

There are hundreds of equity analysts in Wall Streets from top investment banks like Goldman Sachs, Citi Group, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan etc. Are they all useless? All on SELL SIDE?? Nobody follows their advice in 2022? then why investment banks still pay them top money?

Talking nonsense

Ceased coverage = strong buy?? What a joke.

Since Public Invest ceased coverage on SerbaDK, its share price has dropped over 90% again to just 2.5 sen. Wake up!!

There are these irresponsible people like you trying to push up and promote stocks with no fundamental and with potential fraud to lure in retail investors who eventually lose their pants.

Public Invest downgraded SerbaDK in late June 2021 from RM1.39 to RM0.44, a couple of weeks after SerbaDK had issues with its external auditors, but it was too late and SerbaDK share price had already collapsed to 40 sen from RM1.50. Public Invest eventually ceased coverage of SerbaDK in Nov 2021.

This time for Ptrans, Public Invest was taking a pre-emptive move to cease coverage on Ptrans while its share price was mysteriously pushed up to year high. Public Invest might not know what would happen inside the company but obviously sensed something wrong and decided to drop its coverage.

retails investors should be grateful with the current share price being pushed up by the company and its directors, and should take this opportunity to take profit and run.

Retails investors should be wary of another Serba Dinamik in making, with company reporting consistent good accounting profits but having no cash flow (keeps doing private placement or right issues)

not sure if the working capital allocated was used to push up share price, before they want to do another private placement at 90 sen

I think most investors would be as frustrated and confused as the analyst from Public Invest who was trying to promote the stock

4) why would they need so much money allocated for working capital, while the construction of Bidor Sentral is still far from having enough fund?

3) Bidor Sentral requires a total construction cost of over RM100 million over a construction period of 2 years to end 2023, an allocation of just RM13.5m from this private placement is far from enough. I think very soon the company may need to raise more funds to complete the construction of Bidor Sentral, either through another private placement, or a right issue or draw down all remaining sukuk of RM80 million

For a start, to spend RM1.3 million for one electric bus is very very expensive to me.
Secondly, a capex of RM6.75m to upgrade Kedah bus terminal commercial area also required money to be raised from private placement?? This clearly shows that the company operating cash flows are very tight

The purpose of doing the private placement was given as follow:
1) RM5.2m for buying 3 electric buses and installing 6 charging stations
2) RM6.75m for upgrading of commercial area at its bus terminal in Kedah
3) RM13.5m for partial construction costs for Bidor Sentral
4) RM12.0m for working capital
5) RM650k for professional fees

Public Invest analyst has since ceased coverage of this stock, citing lack of re-rating catalyst. The timing was right after the company proposed to undertake a private placement of 10% to raise proceeds of some RM38 million at proposed price of RM0.60 a share in April 2022. It seems like the analyst was disappointed with the company's rationale of raising such a tiny sum of money, and confused with the company's direction.
It simply showed that the company lacked cash flows to sustain business despite reporting good accounting profits.

Out of RM53 million of net profit in FY2021, RM39 million profit before tax or RM29 million net profit was from so-called Project Facilitation Fee (PFF). Such PFF was mostly unaccounted for, not sure from what project or from which state authority.

Without PFF contribution, net profit for FY2021 would have been just RM24 million or EPS of 3.3 sen. Applying a normal PER of 12x, this stock is only worth 40 sen a share. Even if I apply 15x PER, it is worth 50 sen only.

company directors are kind enough to push up share price for retail investors to cash out. The current share price rally has no fundamental basis, soon it will run out of gas.
Whatever technical chart indicators are just faked.

run before it is too late. This stock is over-valued, will crash down soon to 50 sen or below