With disposal of A.Molek and A.Madu, their income bearable DWT should be at around 339,665MT.
BDI >3000 from Jul and Aug, and assume continuing in Sept as well.
This should yield.....Rev around 63mil with Profit circa 40mil for Q3. EPS should then be around 4.3sen.

All this do not include potential with NBAL consolidation, and gains from vessel disposal. If so, Q3 would very likely be another bumper

@Pingdan, this company in BVI is part of the Kuok's.....holding together with PACC also Kuok's.

10~15 mil is just a proportional estimate taking into account the rates today. Yes, back in 2020, they had 12mil from JVs.....but at 50% share, it should not been consolidated into the books. Only div income they consolidate.

Maybulk's action has always been very business savy. I dont think they would have just disposed 2 vessels at good price while leaving the revenue/profit to drop without balancing back with additional income stream. This 100% acquisition of NBAL should be that new income for Maybulk.

Will see. A good discussion. Thanks.

the deconsolidation of NBAL back in 2009, had a cash impact of about 23mil..my estimate this reconsolidation now may bring back about 15~20mil of cash into their accounts...

all in i estimate this should bring about an additional 10~15mil of revenue and profits direct into their books for the next quarters...

@pingdan,

the acquisition cost is already into the accounts....but i dont think NBAL's revenue and profits has been consolidated yet into Q2's results. They cannot consolidate NBAL's Revenue and Profit until after the share transfer is complete.

We dont know how much Revenue and Profit NBAL, but it it is equivalent to that of 1 vessel, that will be good.

Lawman, I think there is a vessel under the 50% full acquisition of Novel Bright Asset. Under NBAL BVI, is Brilliant Star Shipping and this company is classified as "owner and operator of ships". If this full acquisition is for gaining control of another vessel, then their next qtr number's will have it consolidated into their books.

Q2 '21 results is far better than I expected even with the rise of the naptha prices. Despite the gradual narrowing of the naptha price spread, the result going forward is still foreseen to be good. Estimate circa EPS 50sen p.a. If they can increase production utilization % to 90 or increase capacity with their cash, that will be a bumper up.

chief999, i did the modelling month by month i.e. Apr, May, June rates. Therefore i lag, at max only by one month.

At rate of with current BDI, this coming Q2 will likely provide EPS circa 4.3 sens. Profit estimate slightly above 40mil and revenue slightly over 70mil : )

Annualizing this, EPS of 12sen p.a. should be possible. Should the BDI continues heading north, their results will be more favorable than simulated.

My earlier simulation is rather close....if this is case, then going forward Q2 is very likely 65mil for revenue

sapurakencana, i realised from the recent publishing it was 455 DWT. Just changed the estimate and did the simulation again. My rev estimate is around 45mil using average BDI at 1700 for Q1.

Wok Wok Sapurakencana;

Maybulk capacity is 450,000 DWT. Its average charter efficiency is around 2.7~3.0% over the entire duration of 2007 until now. U can "estimate" revenue with charter rates known.

The correlation between average BDI vs Charter Rates for Panamax~Handymax is at around 8 plus minus on average. E.g. if BDI is at 2856, the rate hovers at circa USD 22k.

Their OPEX per DWT is on average at 220~300. The company have discarded many inefficient vessels up till now, so a leaner OPEX at 220 is possible.

For Q1, the BDI averages at around 1600. Thus, we should hopefully see it break even based on these variable factors I truly hope.

I guess we will find out soon....

Sapurakencana;

the simulation is based on BDI correlation with Charter Rates, DWT and Charter Efficiecny of Maybulk, OPEX vs DWT, and annual data of all the above from 2007 until now.......

chl1989....i dont think it can hit 20mil in coming Qtr...will be lesser. Maybe 16~18mil

HI Chief999, yes....that would be potential windfall. For this coming Qtr will be litmus test. The simulation indicates mere breakeven EPS.....something like close of 1.8 sen if really all goes well......finger's crossed

So long as BDI is above 1700, Maybulk will be nearing breakeven barring any unforeseen events.

If BDI maintains above 2200 for the entire year, the simulated forward EPS would be around 14 sen. Every increase in of +200pts from BDI 2200 onwards adds about 2 sens more to the forward EPS.

The leading indicator to watch other than the BDI will be Pacific Basin in HKEX 2343.HK...happy investing

@i3lurker...yes you are correct. US consumes a significant portion of the exports from Malaysia. From Jan~Jul'20 alone, their share of consumption is at 32%.

Second to that is Germany whereby their share of demand is only 6%.....following by Japan, UK, China etc

Happy investing bro! cheers

@i3lurker.... Based on the mathematical models of the trends that we hv simulated from glove demand statistics, the increase during this phase is according to polynomial trend ie d2y/dt2. It is not at dy/dt.

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/freetospeak/2020-08-18-story-h1512394632-VACCINE_OR_WITHOUT_GLOVE_STOCK_RALLY.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/freetospeak/2020-08-08-story-h1511613432-Supermax_OBM_The_George_Soros_bet.jsp
-------

i3lurker its all about the ASP rate increase.

at a certain point in time the dy/dx of the rate of increase of ASP will plateau off

thats how this quote came about many moons ago.

If you still remember this phrase you would have multiplied your investment more than 3X from the time you first heard this phrase from me.

@glove_bubble.....I can very much agree with your point if you can provide some data as indicators to back up with your suggestion..thanks

-----------------

GLOVE_BUBBLE MY SINCERE ADVISE PLEASE DO NOT KEEP IN YOUR FANTASIAL...GLOVE BUBBLE HAVE GONE BURST SINCE LAST MONTH...BIG4 HARTA AND KOSSAN APPEARS BIG TOP...ANY REBOUNDS TODAY OR LATER SHOULD BE LAST TIMING TO SELL. 2 CENTS

@sniper123..... Who told u institions are selling? Institions hv not been moving for a while...it is only retailers selling

Looks like a consensus pattern is forming here.... It is more obvious if presented as such

<200mil = 7
200~400 = 9
400~600 = 17
600~800 = 13
>800mil = 5

Gaussiian distribution forming?

==========
MYR profit lost negative -RM300mill
a) Aaron_tan Sor Hai ( the most stupid n retard in this Forum)
b) Teamrocket?( Go to Mars ,one way ticket )
c) rr88? (70+- Senile n depression)
d) EatCoconutCanWin (over eat n mampus)
e) stockraider ( sour grape n jealous n gone crazy)
f) MasterYoda (behave smart but stupid )
g) TYCO List of 50 ( stupidity to the max)

1)MYR200mil
a) JP
b) zhen (170m)

2)MYR300mil
a)Jack
b)Aquarius67
c)harold8990
d)ABCSoup2020
e) facialking
f) Super Aloha -338m
g) pewepw -373m

3)MYR400mil
a) Goldberg-428m
b) Stockarmy - 450m
C) SPERMX - 444M HAHAHKEKEKE
D) Stockhunter85 - 400 - 480m
e) Katsul 51 - RM 455 million
f) hibits - 488m
g) Winningpost - 450 M
h) Petai 400-450 M
i) Newplayer286 450-500m
j) Ikigai - 435m -470m

4)MYR500mil
a)inPeace
b)dhnn81
c)elbrutus
d)Lucky investment
e) midzurll19
f) TGbee
g) tiger 69) wjc4195 540-570

5)MYR600mil
a) BaconGuest 688Mil
b) ngs98 670 M

6)>MYR700mil
a)Kukuman
b)Pzogro:838m
c)DJoker89 718m
d)Staypositive
e)See2sea
f) blackwhite90
g) MaiKanCheong
h)keyboardman
i) Aramco
J) hng33 ( ASP hike profit from manufacturer )
k) vanness_lyh 710.6m

7)>MYR800mil
a)5Supermax
b) cbpenbrush 868m

8) >MYRM1 billion
a) hng33 (ASP hike profit from manufacture + distribution)
b) turbinehead10

9) 1 BILLION (100% SURE)
a) Katherine Lim Ee Mei

Read the article here to understand further...a hidden gem in the making

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-08-07-story-h1511586399-The_New_Normal_OBM_Style.jsp

Ultimately there will only be one King for OEM and another for OBM......the rest are in the same league of OEMs fighting with each other within the same market segment based on low price and high volume.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Jul 28, 2020 1:23 PM | Report Abuse

Among THKS, it is only Supermx that maintain a differentiation in the business model. The others thrive in volume and because of this only the biggest shall ace.

Going forward, there will be only Topglov and Supermx in the upper league.

Which business model will reign supreme in giving best business and shareholder value return?

Will the OBM business model reign supreme?

.....i am sure you are aware that Topglove is also switching towards doing more OBM ; )

Among these top 4 producers THKS, there is only 2 business models here competing.

One via OBM which is close to a customer centric setup, and the other 3 via OEM which is volume or product centric.

Which model will give a better business return, and best shareholder value?

Well your guess here will be as good as mine.

Among THKS, it is only Supermx that maintain a differentiation in the business model. The others thrive in volume and because of this only the biggest shall ace.

Going forward, there will be only Topglov and Supermx in the upper league.

Which business model will reign supreme in giving best business and shareholder value return?

Will the OBM business model reign supreme?

.....i am sure you are aware that Topglove is also switching towards doing more OBM ; )

@OTB...yes u r correct THKS

==
OTB Dear Wok,
Q1 2020 of Carepls is = 5.1 million (4 million is inventory write down)
4.1 times look reasonable.

Thank you.
24/07/2020 10:56 PM

Hi OTB sifu....

Actually Careplus
Q1 net PAT is 1,141k, Gross Profit is 5,261k
Q2 net PAT have to less 15,059k, so PAT is 21,153k, Gross Profit is 27,288k

PAT increase is actually 18.5x
Gross Profit increase is 5.18x

18.5x increase is scary

---------------------------------------------------------------------

OTB PAT for Carepls is 36.2.
Less 15.4 extra ordinary gain
Net PAT = 20.8
Q1 2020 PAT is 5.1 (4 million is inventory write down)
PAT increase = 20.8/5.1 = 4.1 times

Please comment if I had made any mistake.
Thank you.

@freetospeak.... Interesting. Even apply discount also still hv a lot of spare change left lol

======
freetospeak Last qtr super earn 3.2x more than mercantor 71 vs 22. If maining same ratio of earning.220 x 3.5 = 710m. As a benchmark. Can apply discount.

@Arsenewenger8383 ....if we cannot use testing rate to estimate the roll out time for vaccines, then how long do you think it will take to roll it out? 6 months? Tell me how you estimate this duration?

Furthermore, this assumption of "frontliners will geylt the jab 1st", is not true and only for the common man's understanding.....Military and Ruling Elites will get the immunization first but quietly....before front liners.

On this "have u seen doctor wear glove when inject vaccine?", I don't know which clinic or doctor that which practices this especially during with this pandemic period now. Which clinic or doctor now is brave enough NOT TO WEAR gloves to provide immunization?

You can estimate how much time it takes to have the vaccine rolled to for everyone in this world. Just use the Covid testing capacity per day for a country and divide by its population size. I don't think any country can roll it out faster than they can test covid 19.

Use USA for example that have 328 mil people and their Covid testing capacity per day is circa 500k. To have the vaccine rolled out for 100% of its citizen, it will need circa 656 days or 1.78 yrs. This we imagine it will only take 1 dose to reach full immunity. If it turns out to be like Hep B that requires 3 doses, it will be even longer.

@sunshine99... Yes correct. Especially when the time comes where China producers steps into the global market playing just by cost, volume will hv difficulties to sustain...

----
sunshine99 if Affin Hwang upgrade Top glove due to ASP, then you all should know what supermax has been gaining all these while, IT IS IT'S GIANT ASP GAIN.. just think about it...dont just think TG look better because somone upgrade it to 46$, you can get a clue from all these glove report because they basic line is the same, demand is supernova, but the business structure is that one that decide who will gain more

supermx - obm
top glove - volume
harta - effiency

when come to a bull market, efficiency that translate to raw material cost saving may not be so significant in terms of earning.

Collection time

@gloveinvestor....thanks. good insight.

gloveinvestor Just by comparing the price % increase in the chart to decide which one is better? Lol.

You need to really compare like for like from the starting point using their earnings. Supermax remains underdog and has been undervalued and therefore the price increase % is much better to compare to others. It consistently ranks number 1 in hot trending stock means more buyer.
It's potential means people are willing to pay a premium to invest even it has surpassed others.

Its business is great and ethical is absolutely critical for big funds.
Lots of big funds are looking for ESG compliant supplier and stock.
If you don't know about ESG, go and search it up. These attract Whales!

You don't have to wait for long to see Supermax overtake TG and become one of the key elements in KLCI. It is currently rank 20th.

Most impotently, brand name Supermax/Man is well known to everyone!

True...the very reason why they were embroiled in all these earlier was due to the strategy being high volume low cost....it has always been cost cost cost

Supermx differentiation strategy clearly stands out on this issue now...


-----------------------------
probability Posted by freetospeak > Jul 17, 2020 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

Supermax has commissioned and undergone a Sedex Members Ethical Trade Audit (SMETA) audit by an independent auditor successfully and admitted as a member of SEDEX.
SEDEX is one of the world’s leading ethical trade service providers, working to improve working conditions in global supply chains. It provides practical tools, services and a community network to help companies improve their responsible and sustainable business practices, and source responsibly.
SMETA is an ethical audit format which reports on Sedex's four pillars of labour, health, safety and environment in reflecting good business ethics.


Posted by freetospeak > Jul 17, 2020 11:55 AM | Report Abuse

Supermax now is the safer choice now due to sedex member. Tg might get another hit from uk activist so tg investor mus be prepared. Not fear mongering jus be prepared n pls update here also if got latest news coz many here also vested in tg.
20/07/2020 9:16 PM

Amongst these THKS... Supermax hv always been the underdog due to its different approach in business strategy that is not well appreciated by analyst.

Supermx controls the entire retail value chain from factory to the end customer by itself while THK focus on low price high volume to compete with one another. There is no key business strategic differentiation amongst THK...and in this situation only the biggest volume amongst them will shine.

Supermx hv overtaken Kossan Harta and now chasing TG after racing up from the bottom. It is the strongest contender so far and Its meteoric rise cannot be evaluated by how many time it has increased... but whether its can yield the necessary results to qualify for the increase and further rise...

TG's Q3 PAT result was 347mil... U can guess where Supermax Q4 PAT shall be. Try not to be distracted by the noise.

Haha... Finally we hv an acronym THKS.... But it should be TSHK cos supermx comes first after Harta and Kossan now

free2speak....maybe copper wire is still used for data lol

bye bye Harta

just overtook Harta..by 4 sens...way to go.

F1 race....Supermx going to trail up with Harta

There are many fearmongers that believe with the arrival of a vaccine, the demand for medical gloves will be dampened.

But before you jump into believing all this, do ask yourself a few questions here,
a) can the pandemic be really wiped out with the arrival of a vaccine?
b) how long did it take for tuberculosis and polio to be subdued?
c) will governments, especially of developed nations, drop its guard against stock piling sufficient gloves once a vaccine is there?

If you can think rationally, the answer is obvious. The possibility of a vaccine is already there, but for now one knows whether it will be even effective or not yet. So why fear that demand for gloves will drop after a vaccine is found.

Now testing to overtake Harta

yes...free2speak is the grand sifu in this forum

chief999...lol good excuse to blame on utility companies

chief999 AGM is it zoom meeting? maybe they will cut the transmission during Q&A

F1 race between THSKs

The acronym for these big 4 now is THSK.... S=Supermx.. then come K=Kossan

Poseidon80.....very nice you have some insider updates. There are many figures in production.....which figure are you referring to that has tripled?

------
poseidon80 @monetary. Supermx don’t need profit and revenue same with harta or top glove.. harta and TG shares 3x more than Supermx.. meaning, if harta price rm16 right now, with 3billions plus shares, where’s Supermx only 1billions shares. So if Supermx wants to get to rm16, it only need 1/3 of harta earnings... Supermx already surpasses 1/3 of Harta Earning last quarter. By right reaching rm16 is easy for Supermx., trust me it’s going to rm20 or more.. the real world demand started on May onwards where most other country runs out of supply.. the last quarter profit was only a jizz of what’s going on.. I have an insider in the factory works for production, the figures tripled from last months.. next week Tp Rm14.
05/07/2020 2:42 PM

overtaking Kossan soon!!

@yfhew there is even a bigger rainbow in Q1'21 and Q2'21 coming ahead

yfhew1 Yes. Quarter result is a big rainbow. You see it. Grab it. Afterward, rainbow gone. You cry because you only can see other earn big.
01/07/2020 11:52 PM

Today's drop is is really unnecessary....ikan bilis commit suicide. So for tomorrow....any more ikan bilis still want to continue sacrificing?

hopefully it is already fully DETOXed by now

most of us should be aware that the 1st drop to bottom was caused by margin call.

however the 2nd drop to bottom was more subtle....and was clearly due to foreign funds net outflow continuously for 2 weeks dumping

12th June Report
TOP 10 NET MONEY OUTFLOWS• Top Glove Corporation Berhad saw the largest net money outfl ow of –11.62m last week. Its stock price was 3.17% higher for the week, out-performing vis-à-vis the FBM KLCI which gained -0.66% during the review week. It is notable that the net money outfl ow amidst advanc-ing share price may indicate a sell on strength (SOS) stance among some investors.

Today many Ikan bilis commited suicide