Yield of 6.5% is historical before discounting for revised taxes based on existing business. A more realistic and conservative prospective yield is probably 4 to 4.5%, which on its own is not too bad. Good luck.

Too early to judge, one whole year to go.

Window is closing in to sell before Q2 results in my opinion.

Avoid warrants if possible so as not to get killed as valuations very lofty. Q2 is just around the corner.

Business model of MyEg is not sustainable as it doesn’t add much value in my opinion. It’s existence is largely due to patronage and hence it’s nature being rent seeking only. A lot of the services it provides can easily be extended by the vendors/govt agencies etc. Recent share price run up is a good chance to take profit or cut loss before reality sets in over time. Good luck

Cheap is a misnomer and always remember that equity investing is forward looking and past earnings is no indication of the future, especially for this coy due to changed circumstances.

Better think twice, I would recommend that you really study into their business model and decide for your self whether it’s sustainable, meaning if it’s of value adding or merely ‘rent seeking’. In my opinion, it’s not really a technology company but merely using technology to automate a manual process, something very basic. The hard part is to get the job. More importantly this process could have easily being done by the govt if there are more check and balances and competency. Something which the new govt can easily deliver, hence putting players like this vulnerable. Even if the don’t, the govt may open these opportunities to all providers to compete efficiently instead of current monopolistic practice. Cheap is referring to past earnings and as we all know very well, the stock market is forward looking hence PE or prospective earnings. For pure speculation, anything goes and it’s not a matter of cheap or expensive, just buy low and sell high at the expense of volatility in the midst of confusion. Just my 2 sen opinion, cheers and good luck

The one who runs fastest will laugh the loudest. Better cut loss if you have to as valuation is very high while business model is very much based on patronage.

move on to another horse.

like the Chinese saying, 'run quickly fast, good outcome' translated literally. Way overvalued so. better sell quick and

Berkshire doesn't pay dividends too.

Competency of mgmt is one of the attributes so it's pointless to argue against their decision.

Higher dividends should be a possibility in view of better performance and cash position. It would be better if they adopt interim dividends going forward, like what Carlsberg announced. As a comparison PetDag pays 4 times a year. Cheers and good luck to all PetronM investors.

Anyone tracking results of parent Petron Corp. It normally comes out first and we can get an insight into what to expect from PetronM.

Guys, the warrant issuers are not ‘short’ nor have the intention to ‘short’ the ordinary. IB’s merely intermediate opportunities and make a ‘cut’ from these derivatives, instead of making directional bets. The issuers would definitely have a position in the ordinary to hedge their positions, contrary to what you think. Cheers.

Let your money work for you and ignore market noises. Excellent financial performance should translate to higher final dividend for FYE2017. In addition, please attend next Agm and recommend the board to consider introducing interim dividend from 2018. Happy investing, continue supporting Petron stations and be a "i3 Petron Ranger" to share any feedback, both positive/negative as customers vs that of Petronas and Shell.

Bonus and splits do not add value fundamentally. Moreover since bursa started 100 share per lot, there is less justification for these exercises. It’s equivalent to q 10 for 1 split so most investors can afford.

@tipumakan,%20first%20of%20all%20I%20am%20happy%20that%20majority%20decision%20was%20yes%20otherwise%20share%20price%20of%20Igb%20today%20would%20have%20collapsed%20to%20below%202.50,%20the%20levels%20before%20this%20proposal.%20After%20having%20much%20thoughts,%20I%20think%20the%20best%20option%20is%20#3.%20You%20are%20guaranteed%204.3%25%20for%20at%20least%204%20years,%20up%20to%20a%20maximum%20of%207.%20Attractive%20enough%20while%20waiting%20for%20the%20potential%20of%20Goldis%20to%20appreciate%20during%20this%20period.%20If%20you%20look%20at%20the%20proposal%20the%20effective%20shareholding%20interest%20of%20scheme%20shareholders%20barely%20change%20under%20option%20#3%20on%20a%20fully%20diluted%20basis.%20This%20means%20that%20the%20controlling%20shareholders%20cannot%20benefit%20much%20under%20this%20scenario.%20Surely%20not%20all%20will%20choose%20option3%20so%20they%20will%20benefit%20somehow.%20More%20importantly%20there%20will%20be%20additional%20float%20of%20Goldis%20shares%20from%20this%20exercise%20and%20this%20will%20represent%20the%20best%20opportunity%20for%20the%20major%20shareholders%20to%20accumulate,%20likely%20above%20rm3,%20the%20exchange%20value.%20In%20short%20I%20think%20the%20price%20will%20move%20after%20exercise%20some%20time%20in%20Feb/Mar%20next%20year.%20Just%20my%20thoughts,%20good%20luck.

Kudos as smart money voted yes. Now you can have one to two months to decide which option to choose from. Cheers and good luck.

Vote yes and realise immediately your investment via any of the 3 options that fancy you. No point waiting for more years to profit from your investment. Cheers and all the best.

@danny123, Opt for Goldis Pref if you want higher div ie 4.28%
@tipumakam, diluted Goldis after offer will still be relatively high as it currently hold 75% of Igb.

Vote Yes and get the opportunity choose from 3 options depending on your analysis. If you think nta of Igb is high, then swap for Goldis which have an even higher nta. Good luck

PP already done in my opinion from the recent ramp up to all those investors/speculators that jumped in. This exercise is merely to swap what was 'dumped' into the market and if I am correct will be at a lower price, logically. Expect downward price trend from now and eventual placement price at a discount to the prevailing price then. Just my thoughts, good luck.

@heata, are you making a passing comment or is it something you know.

Appreciate your sharing, thank you.

@edward, speedy recovery to your wife. Take care of your priority first and making money can wait. Always appreciate your contributions to this thread. Cheers

I think Coldeye has a point as Ranhill has declared dividends under separate announcement before. Also total cash for payout is there and position as of now may differ from that at end Jun Q financials. Good luck.

I agree that these forums do get bastardised once the stock activity increases like that of HengYuan. Luckily this thread is still decent but unfortunately because of distractions from constructive discussions, certain valued original contributors, notably Jay and Sumato appeared to have dissapeared while new 'experts' emerges. Personally I think its best for long term investors to focus on fundamental matters, support Petron petrol stations, observe and report positives/negatives factors influencing its business model instead of day to day fluctuations of stock prices, derivatives, crude, exchange rate etc etc. Not that these factors are not important, just hope that its in the good hands of the management and more importantly that its business model is robust enough to sail through to greater heights. My experience from investing is that if a stock can move from say RM6 to RM24, eg PetDagang, it is not so important whether you buy it at RM6, 8 or even 10. Its never plain sailing but the big negative is that you did not act. Let your money work for you and not vice versa. Just my 2 sen thought and a little contribution if any, in appreciation to those who have contributed substantially before to this thread. Btw, I am not suggesting that Petron will be the next PetDagang, cheers and best wishes.

First and foremost thanks to great contributions notably Leoting and Edward. @ Edward, as for the hot roll mill, how does it fit into the whole scheme of things for Ssteel. I presume its an upstream ops aimed at improving value/margin and market position. Assuming it gets revived successfully, what can we expect. Thanks in advance.

I personally think it is great strategy for company and major shareholder/s to leave the share price to market forces. This will strengthen shareholders listing, leaving hard core holders willing to go long term at the expense of weak/short term ones. Sharebuy back with no meaningful volume at low prices is not practical and pushing it up only benefits short term traders and opportunist. The challenge going forward is to manage shareholders capital vis a vis the new business they are seeking to bring on board to ensure appropriate roe, roa, growth etc etc. I suspect the Company will continue with periodic dividend payment instead of lumpy or capital payouts in their capital management, squeezing out short term traders and opportunists. Kudos to the board, I think they are doing a great job and they win my blessings. I just hope they find good relevant business/es, a task which is very challenging in this extended low interest rate environment. Cheers and good luck.

Hi all, good sharing and discussion among this thread and well appreciated. Just want to bounce the recent write off in their investment in Southern HRC Sdn Bhd (Hot Rolled plant). Any feedback/update/comments on the progress and or status of the arbitration. RM141 was provided in Q4 2016 and wonder if there would be any recovery or further provisions from counter suit by Danieli.

Good contribution by both felicity and probability. I agree with both as felicity is comparing business models while probability on valuation/opportunity of both companies at current prices. Kudos and good luck.

@ probability, thanks for your great input to understand more about refinery operations. Can you explain how throughput would increase as a result of lower crude prices. I would imagine that the refinery has a capacity and if this is reached, is it still possible to increase throughput.

@danny123, I think its not so straight forward as the offer is not only in cash. I would imagine that if Igb goes past rm3, goldis would follow accordingly probably at a slight premium and track the price of the swap offer. Also there is no apparent reason for Igb's price to surge as the market is well aware of it's nta.

@tipumakan, you are actually answering the question you posed in your second paragraph. Cheers and good luck.

@ Iris, dont know where you got your news from but dosen't sound logical to me. This is not the first time they try to take IGB private and can't see why they will stop now as it appears to be their best chance thus far, proposing a combination of options and going via an EGM. Financing is a no brainer "bridge" as IGB has already received proceeds from disposal of a few investment assets done in 2016.

I don't think the cash call is for insurance business or for insurance capital requirement as they are embarking in the business merely as agents, similar to Pos and MyEg (motor largely) Sounds like a capital light venture and may be promising as they reported to have database of 6m between them and Aeon. Good luck

Thanks Jay, great stuff. Better than most sell side analysts in my opinion.

I think the big unknown is the balance of the land that the factory sits on. Just based on compulsory acquisition price on a portion, we can see a huge profit. They can easily relocate the factory to a more efficient and better location on the potential redevelopment value of its existing land. I would imagine the value would be much much higher after the completion of Mrt for the whole area and they are right on it. A past example is F

Good sharing everyone and special thks to Jay + sumato88, as a few of you have already pointed out. Just continue supporting Petron stations and services, recommend to your family/friends and post any negative observations at these outlets, while the positives unfold, and reflected over time in the share price. Kudos.

Crazy indeed, especially now with 100 shares per lot trade. Enjoy the ride but be mindful that if no material development/s, the valuation is mighty high.

If I recall correctly, the MD made a comment that earnings will triple by 2020 sometime when the stock price was around rm8. So a rough guess would be rm24, without fully discounting the potential 'land play' value as a result of the recent compulsory acquisition for Mrt2. Decent long term bet ???

Thanks Jay, great observation and appreciate kind sharing. This stock is for the long haul in my opinion too.

I think the multiple and discounts are quite irrelevant to my mind. Its the market capitalisation that matters. No reason for capitalisation to increase or decrease purely based on the matrix mentioned above.

Good point @pasanglang, and I think this 'crazy low price' is due to confidence issue on the believe that the major shareholders will extract and realise "value" for the minorities. Any hint or action/s taken towards that direction will certainly be a major catalyst for this stock. A good example is HapSeng Consolidated.

Hi sumato88 + probability,
thanks for your contribution and irrespective of the approach used, what is clear from your 'rationalisation' point of view, is that this stock appears deep in the value. Execution is key risk in my opinion and the management appears capable in handling this business, if not better than its peers. When visibility emerges, I am sure we will see gung-ho reports from Investment Banks and analysts, at much higher prices by then hopefully. Opportunity cost is not too bad either at approx 3.7% yield.

Petron or as a matter of fact any other stocks, one has to identify their key attributes and investment merits that one believes will transform it into a great investment over time. Daily or regular analysis, while constructive may be cause 'paralysis' of thoughts. Every business is dynamic in nature and hence its important to have a combination of competent management together with relevant business model to forge ahead. I am not suggesting that Petron fits all the above and its up to each individual to decide. The performance of PetDagang is a good precedent (although their business model is not entirely similar) and if Petron can merely match their execution going forward, it should be promising. Over analysing is a bit like growing a 100 feet tree and watching its progress on a daily basis. The more relevant consideration would be selecting the correct seedling coupled with periodic observation. Good luck.

The boards of Goldis and Igb are in substance the same hence I can't see why it would not be accepted. Logically this proposal would have been "deliberated" before the announcement.

It now rests on the scheme shareholder to vote and my guess is that it stands a good chance in view of the options given instead of just a straight cash offer at Rm3. Those that see value in IGB higher than RM3 can opt for Goldis shares which will be renamed IGB after the excercise, assuming it goes through.

I am following this stock cautiously hoping for a turnaround and sustainability of results from the stabilisation of crude price. Personally I dont think dividend should be recommended in view of the high gearing and also the initial recovery phase, and not to mention the upgrading and refurbishment required. A good set of Q4 results would be a great start as this would attract more immediate interest into this stock.

What is holding me back is the potential kitchen sinking that is normally practised at each change of controlling shareholders. Hopefully not in Q4 but in subsequent quarters when visibility of the sector is clearer.

To truly benefit from this stock would be to hold longer term hoping that it will mature into the next PetDag, supported by increasing dividend payouts. In the meantime just support and patronise the Petron brand/stations and report any positive and negative observations from your visits for ongoin discussion. Monitoring daily is tiring and not constructive. Timing in buying is not important when a stock performs. Take PetDag as an example, as it was trading below RM10 at the turn of the century and with current price at RM24.50, I don't think one would complain much if they bought at RM9.00 or RM9.50 or even RM11.00. Your only complain would be if you acted or bought the exposure you wanted. Good luck.