The typical game for DKSH. Tiny trading volumes lead to big swings in share price immediately after somebody gets excited...and then it drops dead again. And the reason is that DKSH is not as well managed as some here try to make us believe. If there was a little more substance in the company, price had a chance to sustain a high base. But so it will drop to 3RM or below soon with a handful of trades a day. This stock is a good gamble every now and then, but by far not a decent investment for longer term.

You must be very desperate, Najib. With every little move of the share price you get super excited. And always the big disappointment follows soon after when the price drops back below 3RM... Same story this time. Just wait.

Hi Najib, did you notice that only you seem to hear all these "good" news about DKSH?! I am sure you need some increase in share price to make a buck, but that does not make DKSH a better company. Short term, no good business for DKSH. By the way, Johnson & Johnson has many divisions, and the ethical pharma products are not distributed by DKSH. Hence, also for this vaccine no deal for DKSH. Stop dreaming, DKSH will make no money with COVID vaccines.

You must be dreaming, Najib! It is more likely that the price is dropping back below Rm3. There is just very little fantasy and substance in this company. While minimal purchases may at times move the price 3% up or down, no fundamental trend is yet seen. The company neither is particularly exciting, nor does it benefit from COVID, nor is it managed very well. There is simply no reason why the share price would be moving up.

DKSH is far off distributing any vaccine in MY. And even if so, it will not bring any big profits.

By right investors question Auric. If you look at how much cash was flushed down for this company, you will understand why. Unlikely it will pay off. Basically only served to plug top-line holes. Good news is that with no cash left in the pocket, it will be difficult for DKSH management to waste more investor's money soon.

After past disaster, the expected moderate recovery. Same for all industry and does not say anything about DKSH management performance. Profit driven by the fact that promotional activities were very little and saved a lot of money. That is not sustainable and future profits will suffer. Btw, if you look at Cash, please do not forget to look at borrowings. Net cash is actually worse. Once people find out, the share price will drop dead again.

Surely, the cash situation and the company financials would not allow to pay such dividend. But remember that DKSH group is the main shareholder and probably needs to upstream cash. Lucky small shareholders are participating in this exercise. However, that does not change the general state of DKSH Malaysia and the problems. RM 3.50 appears to be extremely unlikely at the moment.

Hi JohnFarmer458, that is a nice try, but spreading false rumors in this forum is pretty toothless. If you are able to provide evidence for that statement it may even be of interest. So far, only you seem to have come across this news and that alone is not really credible. The trading volumes over the past few days are proof of the lacking excitement about DKSH.

Hi bgt9963, given the current situation in Myanmar it must be assumed that business is impacted. However, DKSH Malaysia is not operating in Myanmar, hence, totally irrelevant. Unless you talk about DKSH Group shares. But that is a different story altogether.

Hunter70, about 30 million shares are free float. I remain saying that 50k daily trading volume is not due to small number of floating shares, but due to lack of interest in the stock. Nevertheless, if your investment decision is based on the belief that their retail business is picking up, I think that is a reasonable approach. I would rather be pessimistic on the vaccines business. And even if Pharmaniaga had to pass on certain services, the margins will be super slim.

Thanks, apple168! Since I am not founding my investments on wild speculations, it should be fine. Here are some facts that you may wish to factor in when dreaming about 4 Rm or more: Q4 sales even worse than Q3. Full year sales lower than 2019, despite full year of Auric. Profitability not fantastic either. No involvement in COVID vaccine distribution.

Totally understand that for DKSH 50'000 shares trading volumes can move the price up by 5%, but that is, frankly speaking, kindergarden and not an indicator for a good investment. If that does satisfy your desire for gambling, the luck may better be with you, not with me.

If there was any serious "rumor" about DKSH, the trading volumes would not be so little. Reality is, nobody is interested in DKSH during COVID. Not even your attempts to spread (knowingly false) rumors will help. Anybody remotely familiar with the industry understands that COVID is doing more damage to DKSH than good. The majority of their business is suffering and they have no stake in COVID vaccines business.

In case of DKSH trading volumes are typically between zero and peanuts. That is deciding the temporary share price, but not the value of the underlying business. Nobody will take your freedom of speech, but you may also have to accept if false statements will yet be commented. Feel free if you have facts to share.

Sorry, apple168, except a strong desire to push your own investment and to hope for overpricing of the shares, it appears that you have very limited insights and knowledge about the pharmaceutical industry. If you declare DKSH to be Pfizer's official partner to distribute in SEA, please, provide evidence (and not in form of some generic marketing articles on the DKSH homepage). Otherwise, suggest you refrain from circulating such false information.

apple168, no sure where you got this information. Pfizer's main distributor is not DKSH, nor is there any official information saying DKSH will distribute the Pfizer vaccine. It is much more likely that Pharmaniaga will do that.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/01/16/pharmaceutical-companies-in-the-limelight

I fear DKSH is currently not flying anywhere, honestly. Do not mean to be pessimistic, but please rather consider facts than fiction.

Sorry, that is pointless speculation without any base. But apparently a few misguided can impact the share price with peanuts trading volumes. But as quickly as it raises, as quickly it drops. Good luck!

There is a difference between a marketing pamphlet declaring something the "leading growth partner" (God knows what that is) and being the biggest pharma distributor. But believe what you want if it makes you feel better.

In the interest of facts versus fiction, suggest to check MIMS who is the main distributor for Pfizer Rx products in Malaysia. It is not DKSH. At the same time, DKSH is also by far NOT the biggest pharma distributor in Malaysia.

Congratulations to Pfizer! But Pfizer is not distributed by DKSH in Malaysia.

sapurakencana, are we reading the same report? I think you may be misled by the comparison to previous year, which was a total mess with lots of restructuring costs. Compared to that, figures look okay. But what is interesting is not, whether DKSH is just doing as good as in a very bad year but whether it develops reasonably compared to the past. I suggest you compare to 2018 or 2017.

Q3, 2020: Net profit: 31m, total borrowings: 728m; Q3, 2018: Net profit: 34m, total borrowings: 190m

What happened is that DKSH acquired Auric to polish revenue numbers at no incremental profit, but accumulating significant debt. At least it is deflecting attention from the fact that the rest of the company is not doing well.

In summary, if I read the report carefully what it tells me is that operating cash flow is miserable, revenue is relatively bad considering the Auric full year contribution, profitability is way below past years (ignoring a disastrous 2019), huge investments made to plug the sales declines which barely pay back, working capital management is a disaster and the liquidity situation becoming a huge problem. You may call that a solid distribution and marketing business, I do not. But for sure, that is nothing close to a "flying color result".

bclim_83, only because they mention names in their presentation does not automatically mean that they are their main distributor. They may provide some services to the mentioned companies, but they are not their exclusive distributor. Do not trust marketing material only. If you do not believe, you may want to ask DKSH explicitly.

For the rest of your argument, I agree. But under current circumstances the other business does not justify any hype or surge in share price.

bclim_83, you are certainly right with your assumptions. However, the problem for DKSH will be that they are not the current distributor for Pfizer, J&J or AstraZeneca. All of these manufacturers have chosen to work exclusively with a competitor. I strongly recommend you to investigate yourself and recalibrate your above statement. Your current understanding of DKSH's principals is simply incorrect. You will find that the chance of DKSH taking a significant share in the distribution of their vaccines is fairly slim. Hence, pricing that into the share price is without substance but only speculation on basis of false rumors. Your money, not mine.

cbkia, no need for hiding. I remain: You guys will (a) be surprised how little DKSH will be involved in distribution of COVID vaccines at the end. Wait and find out. This may give you a first idea:

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/kanger-ropes-more-collaborators-help-distribute-covid19-vaccines

And (b) the rest of the business will surely be impacted by COVID restrictions and not do well. For that just wait until end of November when Q3 report is out.

Totally accept that the baseless speculation surrounding the vaccine offer a lot of opportunities with this stock, but just keep in mind that company fundaments are bad. If a company promoting e-commerce as main pillar has to fire the CIO, not a good sign. Something is going wrong at DKSH.

Suggest you wait for vaccine partnership to be announced. Even then profitability would be questionable. Almost definitely DKSH has no ability to run a large-scale cold chain project like this with existing facility. Only knowledge alone will not be sufficient. If COVID would be such great deal for DKSH, why then DKSH parent company share price not moving? You think shareholders do not understand? Only Malaysia shareholders do? This is baseless local speculation where a few shares traded already move the price. Good luck!

You must be kidding! Do you seriously believe that Asia's Governments appoint DKSH to negotiate on their behalf?! You may want to have a look whom is talking to whom about vaccines. In that game a peanuts company like DKSH is maybe asked to provide a fridge to store products for a while, but that is about it. But they will surely make a lot of money with it. Good luck if that is how you make investment decisions.

Well done! Smart move.

Guys, better cash in all gains soonest. DKSH will not benefit much from the vaccine story. They do not have any concrete deal assigned, margins will be questionable, they are neither the main distributor for J&J, nor AZ, nor Pfizer. And anyways, they do not have the infrastructure to distribute all the vaccines. Reality is, they suffer from lockdown and will not win from vaccine. All those that buy their share because of that are either gambling or clueless or both.

Sad enough, DKSH is not a sleeping beauty. So, do not expect it to wake up and give you a nice surprise. The reason it is sleeping is that is not very well managed, wasting a lot money on acquisitions to plug top-line gaps while profitability is deteriorating. That is why DKSH is not attracting any attention among investors.

You may want to ask yourself if DKSH is currently the distributor for Johnson and Johnson in assessing the opportunity of such deal. If not, why would they be the first choice? Be reminded that DKSH is by far distance NOT the biggest pharma distributor in Malaysia.

You must be joking or still dreaming. Not sure where you see the good sign of recovery. Keep in mind that H1, 2019 result was a disaster due to restructuring and acquisition costs. Obviously that is not mentioned anymore. Cash flow looks fine which is a temporary effect of the sales performance, you will see that adjusting back soon. Maybe take the fun and compare to previous years, e.g. H1, 2017: Revenue 2.6bRM, Net profit 31,7mRM. I wonder what this company is doing?! Wasting lots of money on acquisitions to increase revenue but driving down profits at the same time. Sorry, cannot see a recovery, neither do I see a solid result. What I see a very expensive acquisition that barely covers up the fact that the rest of the company does not work properly. And if I look at how this company is changing their management, I fear others have also noticed.

Just to clarify, James, your fundamental analysis of DKSH on basis of Q1 makes you believe that the forecast growth rate is 14%?

sapurakencana, I suggest that we rest the arguments about facts and figures until end of August and wait for H1 report. We can then resume to look how great the market is and how well DKSH is actually doing based on facts and figures provided by DKSH themselves. Agree?

By end the of this year DKSH will have accumulated so many bad months that a potential vaccine distribution next year will barely turn that into a success story. Keep two things in mind (a) a temporary demand for cold chain distribution will go far beyond DKSH capacity and incur significant extra costs, hence will not be very profitable, and (b) neither Pfizer, AZ, J&J and most of the other MNC pharma companies are currently working with DKSH as their distributor for pharma products. So, I understand your logic, but think that some important facts have been forgotten and their is a overestimation of the vaccine impact to DKSH. The reality is that DKSH is depending a lot on the consumer market and with shops and restaurants closed a longer time, their result will be miserable. In summary, 2020 for DKSH you can write off. 2021 best case recover back to 2019 level. I cannot see how that justifies the current rally.

Rest assured that DKSH will have their reports ready. They have to report numbers to group HQ very rapidly and the only reason they delay the publishing of results to Bursa to the very last second is (a) because they really do not care about local minority shareholders, and (b) the results particularly for Q2 will be a disaster. Until then some remaining day dreamers will keep gambling with the shares.

Agree. Seems to be a great company to make some quick bucks. But I fear it is more because there are so few free float shares on the market that peanuts trading volumes can push the price up or down significantly. I guess it would be far more comforting if the company's fundamentals were right or business doing well. Both unfortunately not the case and therefore not worth a long term investment. Take the money and party.

Great to see the upward trend, but I would rather sell as soon as possible. There is really no basis for this development and even less substance in DKSH's current business performance. The latest with the half year result big shock will set in and probably adjust the share price back to real value of the business.

Well, if you read the original report you will find clearly spoken out that they are not really sure about the distribution rights and basically just speculate. Given that DKSH is currently not the distributor of choice for both companies, it appears to be rather doubtful how much business this will generate. This wild guessing seems to be enough to drive the share price. It will just not last for long. That is why I suggest to rather sell off now.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PublicInvest/index.jsp

You better sell now as long as these fake news last.

I understand that you worry about stock price, but after if you had checked with MIMS you would certainly have found out who is distributing AZ and Pfizer products in Malaysia. You may have a different definition of facts, but you are obviously free to hang on to your biased speculations and guessing. I am certain you will find it also confusing if I would question how a company that has wasted millions in restructuring its business is declared solidly managed. Anyways, everybody can invest in his company of choice and as such I rest my case. We talk again end of August once the real facts about DKSH first half of 2020 will be out. Suggest to keep making up some stories before and hope the share price allows to sell off before that date.

Great to see how much you must love DKSH, kd88. But you may have a look at the facts and try to understand DKSH business rather than focusing on nice marketing presentations by DKSH.

https://www.mims.com/malaysia

Have a look who is distributing in Malaysia and who may do a little sales service for old brands that big pharma is no more interested in doing themselves. Suggest you wait for next official financial report and then stop dreaming.

I am sorry to disappoint you, but neither does DKSH distribute Pfizer products nor AstraZeneca products. So, would any of the two companies have vaccines to be sold in Malaysia, this business will go to the competitor. If you do not believe, suggest you check who is the exclusive distributor for most big pharma in Malaysia. It is not DKSH.

I would further suggest to research again of Auric's growth. No way the business has grown 100% in a comparable period. The quoted number is the full year net sales before acquisition. Just wait until the DKSH half year report for Malaysia is out and you will find out. But trust me, DKSH surely waits with publishing again until the very last minute because the result will look bad.