Just a simple example of how undervalued TA Enterprise is: Its Swissotel Merchant Court hotel in Singapore, bought at S$260m, is valued in its books at only RM$566m. The hotel has 476 rooms. Assuming each key is valued at S$1m (hotel rooms in Singapore are transacted at these prices!), that gives a value of about RM1.4 billion for the hotel. This means this hotel alone is sitting on a revaluation surplus of RM835 million, or about 49 sen per share! A divestment of this hotel will see a cash inflow of 82 sen per share!

thanks calvin. ya, i did a very quick calculation and arrived at above M$1 too. i already own a bit and will prob add, esp on pullback

the current NAV of MUI is 26 sen. has anyone calculated what its revalued net asset value per share is? easily double or triple that?

CAF: i believe if you don't own any entitled rts, but buy rts only from the mkt when they are listed, then u r not entitled to subscribe for excess (this is the ruling in singapore, and i think it applies to bursa too). for those who own bursa rts and hold them in singapore, we simply fill up the form given by the brokers, and fill in the quantity we want to apply for (the ones we are entitled to as well as any excess).

Unfortunately, based on past experience, when we apply for excess rights, we are never given. Perhaps this is due to the broker in singapore "kapo-ing" our successful applications. So i have stopped applying for excess rights.

Thanks watchme. I will look at the counters your suggest.

Btw, re the Vitrox land purchase, i believe there is good reason for the lower price: the lease is for 60 years only, and there are restrictions on its usage.

According to HLB report:

"The asset is subject to 60-year State Lease and shall be used
only for research, design & development, manufacturing of
advance automated MVS & equipment, intelligent robotic
vision system & modules and electronics embedded system
for semiconductor, automotive, electronics, medical and
healthcare industries."

Vitrox is therefore likely to use the land for its own business, rather than develop it for sale. There is also no information on plot ratios, which is a far greater determinant of land value, especially if it is bought for development purpose, as that will affect the GFA and NSA (net saleable area) of a site.

Thanks Rich118 for your contribution. I have also subscribed for the rights. I scanned through the price performances of Bursa property stocks and noticed that GOB's price loss in recent weeks is in line with losses in many small cap property counters, so I am not too worried that it has company-specific risks that i should be concerned about.

Obviously, stocks which are not tightly held by strong holders will lose more in a market-wide sell-off, especially if it's not coupled with a good dividend payout that make longer term shareholders more likely to ride out the storm.

Despite all the worries i have seen expressed about the Malaysian property market, comparing the scene in Malaysia with that in Singapore, I think your property market has better prospects and is safer. Malaysia has a wider geographical mix, and demand could rise with organic population growth. Singapore's demand growth is reliant on immigration, which in recent times has upset many of its citizens. So the continued growth via immigration is a question mark.

I am therefore taking the recent selloff in my stride, and in fact I am looking at other property counters to own (I am keeping my GOB shares of course), spreading my money to companies that perhaps consistently dish out dividends so that i do not have to be solely reliant on capital gains (ie, selling off my shares) for my total returns.

I would appreciate if anyone can point me to good property counters that he/she has looked into and share your insights.

Re the land in Kawan, could it be that the difference in size is due to one figure being the total land purchased and the other is the balance of land after some of it has been developed and sold off? Re GOB, i am more confident of the company only after they start to pay dividends, as serious shareholders will otherwise be unsure how else they can get a return from owning the stock other than selling it off for capital gains.

if u buy rts at 15 sen, and pay 50 sen more for the mother share, your total outlay is 65 sen, but u get 1 mother and 1/2 wrt. if the wrt trades at 15 sen, then your total worth is 67.5sen, vs your cost of 65 sen. but that is provided the mother share stays at 60 sen. i still detect momentum players trying to push down the counter n the rts shares, if my assessment is correct.

GOB Rts trade today. I am wondering if shortists were trying to push down the mother shares over the past few weeks so that the rights would be traded cheaply for them to accumulate. Hope this was the situation, in which case it would be bullish later on.

I notice consistently strong selling in this counter and many times near or at closing the selling is even stronger and looks intentionally so, to close the stock at a low price. Because the counter has no big, strong holders (top 30 shareholders own only slightly above 40% of the stock), perhaps "scaring" tactics are used by relatively bigger momentum players to push the stock down (at the moment). I hope my guess is correct, in which case momentum players may one day reverse their game and push the stock the way round.

Not sure when, but perhaps they will continue to push it down during the trading the of the rights, so that they can purchase the rights cheaply, exercise them and get the free warrant, and then start pushing the stock subsequently.

Vested, and hoping my guess is correct. (Perhaps there are just too many property counters and the loosely held ones just have to fall more than the tightly held stocks)

Rich, re where Msian prop stocks' direction vs the physical market, I am also curious.. but if you look at the case of Singapore, u will notice that even though a glut in the physical market was predicted 3 years ago, and the physical property prices did fall over the past few quarters, if one were to invest in the right property stock, there would be money to be made.

Reason being that many property stocks trade at huge discounts to NAV, in Singapore as well as Malaysia, and probably in many other countries too. I think this is due to the "supply" factor - property is one of the biggest economic sectors in many countries, and hence they are represented in stock markets by several listed entities. This makes "supply" of property stocks (both in number of counters as well as total issued shares of all property stocks) too big for demand to be equally matched. Basic economics - when supply is huge, price is low, everything else being equal. Hence, prop stocks tend to be in general undervalued, and hence safer. It also means that when bad news surface (like an impending glut), the effect on a stock may be quieter (because it's already trading at say 40% of NAV). And if that counter has an earnings and dividend payout story to tell, it may just perk up its share price despite the general prop market's malaise.

Case in point: if you look at all the negative news in the physical prop market in Singapore, and compare with the prices of property stocks like Chip Eng Seng and Lee Kim Tah, you will see that there is no direct correlation between what the physical market is shouting and the trend of these 2 stocks' prices.

I am not sure if that will happen in Malaysia and Bursa, but I suspect the undervalued stocks with big earnings stories to boast of (especially if it comes with good dividend payment or corporate actions) may just stand out despite the fears in the physical market.

Hi Rich, thanks for your note on Plenitude. The land in Balik Pulau is about 2.3m sf. I Googled asking prices for land in the area, and it seems that M$50psf is the market price, although it all depends on what approvals have been obtained for the land. Assuming a more aggressive value of M$60psf of Plenitude's land, that will mean a paper profit of M$42.50psf, or a total of $97.75m. Divided by 270m shares give a per share basis of 36 sen. That will add to existing NAV of $3.63, bringing it to M$4 (this includes its cash).

Of course, if my estimate of land price in Balik Pulau is too low, then the figures would be bumped up.

But thanks Rich, I will look at Plenitude in details when free. Had owned it before in 2013, but had exited.

Hi kancs, mine is about M$1 now. I took profit one round.
Fyi, I have always liked prop stocks - they are easier to analyse. I had the good fortune of making 7-figure profit from investing in Iskandar theme stocks in 2013, and exited the market during the initial part of the end game. You can check my 2013 postings.

I have ridden on SGX prop stocks for a while now, but revisited Bursa stocks recently, but now only own 2 counters - GOB and E&O - both Penang theme play.

But my mainstay is still SGX prop stocks as I can only rely on kind souls like Icon8888 and Google to research on Bursa counters, and not able to meet the management personally during AGMs (too troublesome for me). In Singapore, I can attend the AGMs and get a feel of how honest and able management and top shareholders are, and so I feel more confident to buy a stock in larger amounts.

I am a tad wary of GOB because there is no major, strong shareholder. That may mean the shares are passed around among small retail shareholders who may be weak holders.

I'm also not keen on GOB's kitchenware and F&B biz as tracking and valuing a diversified company is harder than a pure property play. However, Corelle kitchenware is rather popular in Singapore, and I do use them a lot at home, so perhaps its kitchenware biz is ok. I now own more than 1m GOB shares and will slowly accumulate as it pulls back. Still hoping that GOB starts to pay good dividend so that we don't have to sell the shares each time it goes up to lock in some returns.

sorry, "consistently gives me a 5% return"f should read "consistently gives me a 5% dividend yield"

Thanks Icon8888 for your write ups on GOB. I have monitored and bought into the counter. I also notice the quite heavy selling, as well as the "intentional" blocking in the queue numbers on the sell side now and then.

One reason for the constant selling could be that the stock is not tightly held by strong long-term shareholders. The top 30 shareholders own only 42% of the scrip, which points to the shares being held by small retail players, probably all over the shop.

From what I know, the co does not pay out dividend (correct me if I am wrong). Sometimes, even value retail investors need some kind of consistent dividend payout to hold on to their stocks for the long term. Otherwise, they will sell their shares when the price goes up a bit, as they need to turn their paper profit into cash to cover the lack of dividends. If, however, a company consistently gives me a 5% return, I am more likely to hold on to it even if the share price goes up, as I need not sell my shares to to "see" my returns.

This is my personal view, and is exactly how I handle my own investments in undervalued property counters in Singapore.

Hi. Does anyone know what's Bursa's requirement for treatment of profits from a developer's overseas projects please? Can a company progressively recognize profit as the overseas building is constructed or can revenue and profit be booked only upon completion or TOP?

Sunway has some JV in Singapore which is going to be very lucrative, ie, Royal Novena.

Will appreciate if someone can help on this, as I could not find using Google.

Maybe the selldown of Ecoworld is because of the share placement? Placees, if its insiders, would like to buy their shares at low price, so they would not want the stock to go up too much prior to the placement. But after the placement, it's another story - they can allow it to move higher.

Thanks Icon. I am familiar with all 3 then. Thought there were more.

I notice there are rather big sell orders in the queue for GOB everyday, even prior to market opening. These seem fake for a counter with not so many scrip. These fake queues are usually positive for a stock.

Traded volume is also lower in the current consolidation, another positive.

Thanks Icon, I will keep an eye on your blog as well as others. Whose blogs or postings are worth tracking?

I will be adding GOB as I like the fundies as well as the rights issue.

Hi Icon,

Just wanna say thank you for your postings and blogs.

I came into the Msian stock market in Dec 12, and made about 50% from my investments (centred around Iskandar stocks) in about 6 months, but mostly exited around July-Aug 13. Thereafter I did not pay much attention to the market as I was concentrating on the Singapore one.

I am relooking at Bursa stocks, albeit a bit late. I reckon I have missed out on most of the action in the property front (property counters are easier to analyse, and there is quite a bit of undervaluation in such stocks, most of the time).

I am following a few bloggers/forumers on this site, and I must say you guys are doing a great job here. The 3investor site in Singapore pales in comparison.

I saw some of the charts of the speculative counters on Bursa and I had to wonder if what happened on SGX with the ABL (Asiasons, Blumont and Lion Gold) saga is not also happening here. The 3 counters had M'sian links in terms of shareholdings, and they have all collapsed by as much as 90%. Is this happening on Bursa too?

Nevertheless, over on SGX, the collapse led to a separation of the boys from the men, ie, many good stocks were not affected and have actually recovered from a slight pullback or even reached new highs. I hope the same will happen on Bursa. But a lot of retail money was lost and trapped in the "penny" stocks, and this had affected liquidity somewhat.

Icon, may I know at this stage is it too late to invest in property stocks or construction-related ones on Bursa? I saw that many of the stocks had spiked up and then pulled back. I am not sure if the game is over for now.

Having said that, I have picked up a bit of GOB and E&O for a start, as I like the Penang theme. I have only put in about 20% of the investible sum I may finally park in Bursa counters, so I am looking for pointers as I warm up again to M'sian stocks. I probably have M$1-2m more to shop around.

Thanks Icon, Bonescythe, OTB and others for your sharing. Your generosity is greatly appreciated.

iska

hi kc, np. Thanks. I enjoy your generosity in sharing. Much appreciated.

Hi. I posted on Iskandar theme stocks previously. I entered the Msian mkt rather later, around Dec 12, but has made more than 50% from my portfolio of Iskandar stocks. Have exited about 70% of my holding, but still own Sunway wrt, Tropicana wrt, Mah Sing wrt, WCT wrt, and to a lesser extent, Crescendo and Benalec. Those I have made and exited are IJM Land, Tebrau, Hua Yang, KSL n its wrt, UEM Sunrise and UOA. I am inclined to re-enter Iskandar stocks, but am not sure about the timing.

My analysis is very unprofessional, but I base my picks on many analyst reports, amount of land the property companies hold in Iskandar or KL, impending project launches, dividend history, comments by others about management, etc.

Based on all that, I am inclined to continue liking Sunway and its wrt, Tropicana and its wrt (though looking for lower entre price), Crescendo (lower price), IJM Land (lower).

kc, could u comment on Sunway, Tropicana, Crescendo, IJM Land if u have the time, or if u have already looked at these stocks? Thanks.

can someone who attends the AGM pse post some comments after that? Thanks.

ya, this one is one of the worst performers in my portfolio of iskandar theme stocks. wonder what is happening... if placees are solid holders and real, then they will have to ramp stock much higher before they can exit with a profit since the no of placed shares at 80m+ is too big for the mkt to absorb if they were to sell down from here.

also concerned that major shareholder has been paring stake. and the potential scrip overhang from the convertible stock.

Hi reyes, I think one of the ways to play the mkt is to look for theme play. Players and analysts like this because then there are so many things to talk/write about, and for players big and small, a whole basket of stocks to rotate around.

The Iskandar theme is good because there is going to be many developments and news on this front, each one giving a new reason to look at the basket of stocks. When one invests in a counter, one would love to see positive news related to it regularly. Likewise, when positive news in relation to Iskandar keeps surfacing, one would want to own stocks that are related to that stream of news. Hence, my first and foremost reason for banking my money on the Iskandar theme: the constant flow of positive news going forward.

Apart from the list of catalysts I mentioned above, there are 2 main reasons why I am keen on the Iskandar play:

1. If there is money coming into Bursa from Singapore, where is it going into? Familiarity, closeness to where one is stationed, ability for one to see it personally, etc are important in attracting investment money. In recent months, news about Iskandar and property launches in Iskandar are starting to be more visible in Singapore. This has led to more investigative works, visits to Johor, visit to Iskandar property launches and showflats, etc. Having seen with their own eyes what Nusajaya is like, having read that their govt is putting money in Iskandar, knowing that CapLand will soon be launching Danga Bay condos in Singapore, the first logical thing for stock players in Singapore to do is to start buying Iskandar stocks - and they only have 1 major play on SGX - Rowsley.

For those more hardworking, they will start to look into Bursa stocks, and they will park their money in the land owners or developers with land in Johor. And because of the sheer size of funds from Singapore, I can imagine the kind of impact it will have on the stocks that are chosen. I think that is what happened to some Iskandar stocks recently - while there may be some M'sian players trying to dump say 100,000 shares of company A, the retail funds from Singapore were willing to purchase 500,000 shares, and hence many stocks were heading north despite the GE. It's a simple case of the might of money.

2. Regardless of the fact that one can't compare oranges with apples, the fact is that land prices in Johor is a tiny fraction of the that in Singapore; and the 2 places are just kilometres apart.

As a comparison, raw land in Johor is still being transacted at say M$20-30 psf. Even if other costs are added in to ready the land for construction, it probably adds up to M$40 psf. A similar piece of land in Singapore would cost at least M$1,500 psf ppr - 37 times higher! In fact, in prime locations in Singapore, land prices can go as high as M$5,500 psf ppr. This disparity cannot go unnoticed, and once it is recognized, some investors are going to load up on Bursa companies with large land parcels in Johor. All they are betting on is probably a doubling of the land price to M$80 psf - which is still a long distance from M$1,500 psf in Singapore.

Of course, it helps that many M'sian developers with exposure to Johor land have low PEs and high NAVs to back up. So, it's not a case of merely liking a theme and ignoring basic fundamentals.

My stock picks are therefore the Bursa stocks with a lot of land in Johor, especially in comparison with the market capital. Hence, the usual suspects are Sunway, IJM Land, Tebrau, Crescendo, Dijaya, etc.

Hi reyes, yes I like Sunway. I drive in to Iskandar from Singapore regularly to get a feel of the place and update myself. E&O's and Temasek's Avira wellness village project is due for launch soon; one see a huge banner promoting the project along the highway from 2nd link to Nusajaya. If this project achieves good sales, then Sunway will get a boost bcos its land is just next to it.

Here are a list of catalysts that explain why I decided to focus on the Iskandar theme:

1. Launches by Singapore companies (starting this year) will give visibility to Iskandar. Singapore buyers (both Singaporeans and PRs) who are still unsure abt M'sian developers will start to put one foot in, hand held by Temasek and CapLand, and Sg property agents who have only just started to market Iskandar projects. Singapore's Ascendas is also slated to sell factories at the UEM-Ascendas industrial park this year. I can see Sg manufacturers buying factories here, feeling more secure buying a Sg govt-linked developer's project.

2. Listing IWH will lead to more interest in Iskandar-exposed counters. High values given to IWH's land will lead to analyst re-working the maths at land owners.

3. Launch of Country Garden's Danga Bay project in China, may lead to another new group of foreign buyers who are still relatively unfamiliar with Johor.

4. Confirmation later this year of the MRT link between Woodlands in Sg and JB City will create further buzz, as transportation convenience is key to more people taking up residence in Johor.

5. The announcement of more Sg or other foreign participation in Iskandar developments throughout the rest of this year will add more buzz. I understand another big Sg govt-linked co, Mapletree, is exploring sites at Gerbang Nusajaya. If they do pick a site there, it may make Gerbang Nusajaya a good base for Singapore companies to centre around - Peter Lim's Motorsports City and the UEM-Ascendas site being the other 2.

6. Should UEM or other land owners at Iskandar decide that they have sold enough land, they may change land sales to bidding system. Already, there is some mention of it in the news. This will push up the price of land, which is good for companies which have already land banked well, like Sunway.

7. The opening of Pinewoods Studios later this year will add more visibility, and perhaps really start to create jobs around Nusajaya. WCT Land's shopping centre next to 1Medini is now built up to 3rd floor, and when completed, will be the first bigger size shopping centre. These projects' completions will add more live to an otherwise relatively dead area.

There is no harm in looking at KL or Penang property themes, but my view is that because Iskandar is geographically near to Singapore, it is the most visible to stock n property investors on the island. Hence, it's a matter of choice and conviction that I pick this theme (explained partially by the catalysts mentioned above), having done much legwork driving into Iskandar about 15 times over the past 3-4 months. It is what I am now familiar with, so I am sharing with other forumers here.

Hi reyes430. I am not sure how to send links, but Kenanga, Maybank KE, Stanchart, Hwang DBS, among others all have reports on Iskandar. U can google these titles for eg: The stars are aligned for iskandar developers.

U can also go to stock quotes in this site and look at some of the reports put up by diff broking house.

I like Sunway, but co is raising money via rights issue. I wonder how that will affect the warrants, which I own quite a bit.

I know a bit ahout Kim Lun but I can't seem to find any report on how much land they own in Iskandar.

I missed Daiman cos I thought it was not liquid enough for me, but DBS Hwang's report last week propelled the stock to beyond my reach now.

While interest is definitely rising in Singapore for Iskandar properties, I think it's still relatively early days yet, as there is still a huge amount of fear among Singaporeans with regards to safety and security in Johor.

So it's not like everyone is dumping everything they have in Iskandar properties yet. So, we are closer to the "fear" side than the "greed" side of the bar.

Recently, I wrote a short note on Iskandar theme play stocks but I forgot to save the link and now I don't really know how to retrieve it. So I thought I would start a new one here.

What surprised me was that there was no input from other forumers after my posting as I realized many stocks under this theme play were all going up in tandem.

Over in Singapore, there is increasing interest in Iskandar properties; more ads for Iskandar condos and houses are appearing in the papers here, and more agents are touting them to Sg clients.

Agents bringing Mah Sing's Meridin (by Mah Sing, at Medini) condo to Singapore have seen buyers packing into their presentation room over the weekend. Astaka in JB, touted as the tallest residential building in Malaysia and Singapore, have entire floors booked by buyers from Singapore before its official launch. The launch price of Meridin, at about M$700 psf, is a small fraction of the M$2,250-3,500 psf a similar condo would sell in Singapore. We can't compare apple-to-apple here, but the figures go to show how "affordable" Johor props are, relatively.

I have seen more and more brokers writing reports on the Iskandar theme, and this probably explains the Iskandar stocks' strength recently.

While I continue to like the theme, the recent rises has made me take some profit, but over the longer term, I will stay invested.

I continue to like the Iskandar land owners like Sunway, Dijaya, Crescendo, Tebrau, KSL, IJM, Ken, etc and those with high visible products there like Mah Sing, WCT, etc. I have dropped UEM and SP Setia as they are a tad too big cap.

Muhibbah, Benalec, etc may also has some Iskandar angles.

Perhaps someone else can contribute to the topic?

I am relatively new to this forum. Not sure if someone has started a discussion on Iskandar theme stocks, which have moved quite substantially recently. The basket of stocks that I have looked at and now own are Tebrau, UEM, KSL, Dijaya, Sunway, IJM, WCT, SP Setia, Mah Sing, IJM, Crescendo, UOA and the warrants of some of these stocks.

I am not sure how UOA is exposed to Iskandar as I can't seem to find anything using google. The rest have been written about in various reports.

Anyone care to share any ideas on other developer stocks that are exposed to the Iskandar prop sector too? thanks.

Hi. I also own KSL. Does anyone know how much of its land is in Iskandar? And whereabout are these? I read somewhere that they also own land in Batu Pahat and Muar, 2 of the stops in the HSR link between Singapore and KL. So maybe this is another angle for KSL.

Ya, i like stocks with big landbank in Iskandar: UEM (also becos they are taking 40% stakes in some projects sitting on land they sold so that they partake in the devpt profits. Sunway for its huge Sg Pendas landbank, Dijaya for its landbank in Danga Bay and Tropicana Danga Cove in the east (both coastal land), Tebrau (coastal land at Tebrau Coast).

IJM also has big land bank in Johor, but the biggest plots seem to be a tad far from the main areas of devpt. Crescendo has good industrial land opposite Ascendas' site at Nusajaya, KSL I like cos not only has it got land bank in Iskandar, but i read that it has land in Batu Pahat and Muar which are possible stop-over points in the HSR link between Singapore and KL. WCT has not much land in Johor but it has immediate launches in Medini and a new shopping centre in Kemayan City site, plus possible REIT angle for its malls later. Mah Sing has its i-Parc industrial project near to the port.

There are prob other companies with big land banks in Johor but I have not done enough research to include them i guess.

Sorry, did not look at this forum for a while cos i was busy doing leg work in Iskandar..haha. Since I am new to Msian property stocks and Iskandar, I had been doing research the hard way - driving around, checking with agts, seeing what is where, etc. In the meantime, I added more Iskandar stocks.

As for what I found: anectodal examples of more Singaporean interest, including the beginning of interest shown by the more reluctant ones. Eg, Brunsfield's launch of its Danga project in Singapore sees the story of the site "near to Capitaland's A-2 Island" being touted, giving virgin investors the confidence of buying near to the Singapore developer's site. Brunsfield's project is priced around $1,100 psf.

WCT to launch Tower 2 in Medini Signature soon. Priced $650-700psf. 1Medini shopping mall is now at 2nd level (out of 4 I think). It will be the first air con mall at Medini area to be completed. Temasek's Avira (wellness village) could be launched in mid 2013.

Sorry, as I am so new to all this, I thought Puteri Harbour was 99-year land, like Medini, and hence, I suggested Meridin (opp 1Meridin) could be launched above $1,000psf. This was coz I heard Pinetree at Puteri Harbour now going for $1,200-1,500 psf.

Peter Lim's Motorsports Hub is located at Gerbang Nusajaya, near to the Asian Mall (to be developed by a China co). Ascendas Singapore's site nearby set to lure Singapore SMEs over, as Singapore discourages certain biz that are labour and space intensive. Anecdotal stories about some new biz set-ups in Singapore being told to "explore Iskandar" instead as the country takes the heat of its people upset about over-crowdedness in the city state.

I esp like Sunway as its huge land parcels enveloping Sg Pendas allows it to build interesting cove and river housing which command premium prices. I continue to buy/hold Dijaya, Tebrau, UEM, Mah Sing, IJM, Crescendo, KSL, SP Setia and WCT. Looking for more Iskandar story stocks...but I guess these are all the counters I could research into at the moment.. too much work.. haha

After the rts subscription and the trading of warrants, there will be the 1-for-5 bonus issue to look forward to, both for the mother share and warrnts.

Alex, I like Sunway too, for its fundies as stated above, but more because I am accumulating a core group of Iskandar stocks. Sunway stands out in that it has made very huge land purchases in Nusajya in recent months.

With prospects of Iskandar improving further due to the launch soon of highly visible products (at least to Singaporeans) by Temasek-involved Avira and Affiniti at Medini soon, I foresee prices there to continue to climb. Also, other Singapore-linked projects in Iskandar (Tang family's iMedini Walk, UOB-related project and Capland's A2 island projects), once brought in to Singapore, will hand-hold more Singaporeans into Iskandar, as Singaporeans more concerned about safety issues will be more inclined to buy S'pore developer projects.

Also of significance will be the listing of IWH on Bursa and SGX, and the final scenario of UEM/IWH going for tender sale of remainder land in Iskandar, which will lead to the spiralling of land prices there. Then perhaps Sunway's huge landbank there will be revalued upwards a couple of folds?

Yes, i have the same analysis too, and that's what I did. But do u know is the new shares subscribed from the rights are entitled to the 7.6 ct dividend. If not, then, will it mean it is of a different value compared to holding on to exisiting Mah Sing mother share.

I also find the bonus shares interesting, as the new shares and warrants alloted from the rights subscription are also entitled to the 1-for-5 bonus issue. Also, the warrant exercise price will be adjusted to $1.98, post-bonus. This makes it more attractive. Shd warrant price trade at 30ct, that will mean a total payout of $2.28 to buy a mother share, vs ex-bonus price of $1.75 (assuming last day closing price of $2.10 for the mother, prior to ex-bonus date), ie, a premium of 30%, which is fair given a gearing then of about 5.8X.

that's all i have for now. i will be visiting iskandar again these few days.. my 4th visit in 2 weeks..haha... gotta have a feel of the place before i am convinced to put more money into iskandar stocks, i guess.

I like Mah Sing for its rights issue currently. That will improve its liquidity. It's due to launch iconic Meridin this few months, and i suspect the price will go above M$1,000 psf cos of its architecture. I heard it has been buying up small parcels of land in iskandar from small lot owners and amalgamating it.Price paid seems to be below M$10, or thats what one agent told me. Land is near to 2nd link, on the left hand side, near to the port. Appears to be a well regarded company too. Dijaya had interest in M&A with Mah Sing.

For WCT, i like its exposure to the redevlopment of a mall and hotel and perhaps apts in JB, the land for which it acquired only last year. I think its launching Medini Signature next month, and if it sells at above M$1,000 psf, that may grab some attention. It seems like a well regarded co.

I like Sunway for its large land purchases in Medini and water fronting land enveloping Sg Pendas last year n in Jan. This land is huge and propelled the co to one of the top land owners in Iskandar. The land it bought is below M$20psf, including conversion cost. I think water fronting homes is the in-thing and will lure singaporeans who can't get one such home, unless one pays M$40 million for a bungalow in Sentosa cove. And the land size for that price tag is only about 7,000 sq ft.

Dijaya prob moved cos of the purchase of land at Danga Bay this week. Injection of land by its substantial shareholer last year now looks good for the co, with land prices going up in Johor.

Tebrau moved mainly cos of the listing of IWH in june. Temasek and CapLand are said to be anchoring the IWH placement shares. IWH is substantial shareholder of Tebrau, and there is talk on possible change of stakes or land between the 2, prior to IWH listing. There was huge volume recently, then it consolidated, and yest was the second move. I like its exposure to water fronting land at Tebrau area. IWH's water fronting land have high plot ratios, so could be likewise for Tebrau's. I am holding on to this one for now.

hi. yes, i bot into Dijaya & Dijaya wrt, Tebrau, Sunway, Mah Sing, WCT wrts, E&O, UEM and SP Setia - all with intention of having Iskandar exposure. But i think i have only bought about 25% of what I intend to be exposed to. some of them have moved, but some have not. i think it's just a luck thing, mainly.

tony, oh yes, the mrt extension finalisation news is prob one fo the most impt news, which will be released soon.

pte sg individuals and companies are already buying land from UEM or IWH, including the Tang family, a UOB family member, pte co like Link, etc.

So far, however, no listed prop company has made any major acquisition of land in johor (other than Rowsley which is more of an asset injection), and i see such a devpt as a catalyst for the blooming of the iskandar theme. The only Sg stock i know which has any land in johor under devpt is Low Keng Huat, but the land was acquired long time ago, and its foothold is due to its relationship with Msian co, General Corp Bhd.

So i am waiting for the likes of CapLand, or any full fledged prop company in singapore to buy sites in Johor for development. Sg developers put so much money in China, and if they could shift some of it to Iskandar (where they could find willing buyers from Singaporeans who are too scared to trust Msian develoopers) it would be the beginning of waves of interest in Iskandar, imo.

tony, yes there is a surge in interest, but the figures of actual purchases are still very small, imo. many singaporeans still worry about safety in johor. i would say the first wave has started, but it's a very small wave compared to the potential final wave. yes, i am a very hands-on researcher in the prop mkt in singapore - going to showflats,calling agts, going to AGMs of prop companies n talking to directors, googling for all news related to the stocks i invest in, etc.
many investors steer away from sing prop stocks becos they kept thinking that the physical mkt was going to fall, but prices and sales volumes refused to fall. the main reasons - low interest rates, rising prices at the lowest end of the mkt(HDB) making prop owners at this thickest level feeling rich n getting into the prop game, underbuilding of HDB flats for a few years leading to shortage, and liberal immigration policy.
yes, i think the sing mkt shd u-turn this year after the 7th set of govt measures to cool it (it's the most drastic) as well as buyers exercising caution ahead of the glut of completions in 2015 (in fact 2014, if developers complete their flats earlier than forecast).
i think the visibility of sing companies'projects in johor and news flows on developments there over the coming months and years will raise the interest of singaporeans in iskandar projects and developers.
among the news flows will be:

1. Sg PM visiting iskandar on 18/2 for some groundbreaking(?) event at the Temasek-E&O-Johor govt project in Medini (Wellness village).
2. Launch for sale of Country Garden's Danga project in China at high prices.
3. Launch for sale of Peter Lim's JB medical city project in Singapore at super high prices.
4. Singapore's CapLand possible purchase of a whole island in Danga Bay as reported in some Msian papers (not in Sg news yet, as it could be pure rumor).
5. Launch for sale of iconic buildings in Johor in Singapore. For eg, the Meridin by Mah Sing.

I am still not sure how to invest in Msia stocks cheaply though. Also, my research on msia prop companies is ratch patchy at the moment. hence, i am unsure about recommending msian prop stocks to others in sg, including those who follow my writings in a singapore forum page.

while things look promising, i dont have the conviction yet. hence i have just nibbled here n there to have a feel of things. perhaps once i get a better gut feel, i will put more money in bursa prop stocks.

kc, thanks. hi tonylim, i have been investing in singapore prop stocks over the past year, and many of these have gone up 50-100% in that time. recently, i tot i shd look at iskandar theme bcos Rowsley, a singapore stock, has been injected with a piece of land in JB for the devpt of hospital, apts and hotels. The price of the land injected in was taken as over M$900 psf. When I googled, i realised that many Msian developers were buying land from UEM or the pte mkt at below M$12-M$50 psf.

Of coz, plot ratio has to be taken into consideration, and i find that info is rather lacking and arbitrary in Johor. In singapore, it's much easier to calculate the value of prop companies becoz everything is out in the open, down to the plot ratio, what is meant to be built, GFA, etc. So it's much easier to analyse prop stocks on SGX.

i have only recently driven in to Iskandar and although prices there have surged, i think the story has yet to unfold more than 50%. many singaporeans are only beginning to look at properties in johor, and likewise, many stock investors do not even own a single Bursa stock. i reckon that when the more iconic buildings are slowly being put up, then the stock players will start to hunt for stocks with iskandar exposure on Bursa.

Shares of Rowsley has surged from about 10ct to 36ct before falling back to 31ct now. Players could be scouting for other Iskandar plays within SGX, but soon they will discover that the Bursa stocks can be gotten at much lower valuations.

Hence my focus on this particular theme among Bursa prop stocks. Looking at the charts, they do not appear late to me. just my impression, anyway.

hi kc, since there are so many prop stocks, and due of my lack of knowledge in the Kl mkt, I am looking to zero in only on the theme of Iskandar exposure. I believe Iskandar is just beginning to attract some attention in Singapore depsite the fact that a good number have started to buy properties there. However, the interest in Iskandar props among Singaporeans is still very nascent. Likewise, the interest in Bursa stocks exposed to the Iskandar story. I have quickly picked up the following counters with reasonably big exposure to Johor, or whose projects there may be more visible in the near future: Tebrau (the IWH IPO angle, large parcels fronting river), UEM (biggest land owner there), Dijaya (large land parcels there and Danga Bay exposure), Sunway (just bought huge pieces of land at Medini area), Mah Sing (increasing land bank there and with a project launch soon), WCT (building new shopping centre, hotel, apts at JB), E&O (JV with Temasek in wellness project), SP Setia (Johor accounts for more than 50% of sales), and KSL.

Wonder if anyone has anything to say abt these counters as I am so new to Bursa stocks i actually heard of many of these names only these couple of weeks. Will greatly appreciate if you could share your views on some of these counters. Thanks

hi kcchongnz, stumbled onto this thread now..haha.. I have done quite thorough research on property stocks in another country, and am now looking at prop stocks in Malaysia. as i have just started, i would need plenty of research and help. would be googling all over the net, and following your takes on Bursa prop stocks. i am hoping my own research will complement yours and we can work together. my initial gut feel is that Bursa prop stocks are rather undervalued and the prospects for a re-rating up this year are good. i really appreciate your sharing, kcchongnz.

kcchongnz, thanks very much for your quick reply. I am new to M'sian shares and this site. But i have read some of your postings and am very impressed. is it ok if i PM u, or perhaps u can email me at teak29@live.com? Thanks.