10x PE = 1.60 target!

if 10sen dividend, at 4% yield, price at 2.50 supportable.

Warrant still big fat discount of 5sen!

Wrts lelong!

CM- yes warrant should be 1.5 at least...hefty discount!

Does anyone know why the warrant is at such a steep discount to the theoretical value? Even if no time value included, should be M-25sen yah? Why leave so much money on the table for free arbitrage? strange leh...Should be premium to M-25sen due to time value as well...another 5 years to go! Mr OTB?

Essentially you are paying 3sen to hold up to 5 years for any upside vs a full 1RM to hold 'forever'...how long you wanna hold and how much you have to pay to hold that period?

As the lifespan decreases, the time value will drop, until it is worth ZERO at expiry. It is now worth 40sen, but market only prices it at 3sen. Earlier on, end 2014, before the cimb report excitement, it was priced at about 30 sen...

Let me see if I can understand why Mr OTB says WB is undervalue. The mother has infinite lifespan, while WB has 5 years lifespan. Is the 5 year lifespan only worth 3sen premium vs infinite lifespan? Option calculator suggest 5 year time value at about 40sen premium, which clearly is way above current WB time value! ie WB is GROSSLY UNDERVALUE! Salute OTB for pointing this out! :P

Has anyone tried using the warrant calculators online? With 26% (CIMB historical) volatility and full dilution, a full value of 2.10-15 (with main share at 2.65) was given. That is a massive 20% straight off discount with current warrant value! Can anyone verify if this is right? :O

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Mar 9, 2015 03:46 PM | Report Abuse

I wish 11m WB to be sold in open market so that we can buy cheap. A very good deal at 1.60.
Thank you.

Dear OTB, At current price for WB already a steal! Option priced at 8sen premium for 5 years?!

TTF- support buy son! premium drop from 30sen before cimb report to 10sen now...better leverage and cheaper!

Premium for warrants seems to have dropped? Good showing for both today!

Consumers have more to spend as energy costs drop, and industrial costs of energy also drop. Cheap oil looks supportive!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-01/blackrock-says-oil-rout-leaves-investors-with-outdated-holdings.html

FX loss is 'unrealised' so will fluctuate with fx movements. Cash flow is very strong due to fatter margins which is realised gains. Most important!

If FY eps ard 30sen, then PE at 6, so still got room for upward rerating if the eps strength can hold...a look at past few years show fairly consistent 20+ sen eps except for a few bad years. Let's hope for the best case then!

give dividend(announced) then ask money back in rights issue(as per forum)?

Based on option value calculator online, shouldn't the Wb be around 85sen or so?

It was not that long ago, the time decay should be less than this? So buy Wb anyone?

Is the warrant undervalued? When the Wb was at 80 last round, the mother was only at 1.40 or so? Now 146 and Wb still 74? Anyone?

Hi shm, the warrant also has time value of the option - another 6 years or so, and this time value has a value that can be estimated with an option pricing model. Add this time value to the conversion value and it may even be undervalued.

The directors turned down the Korean offer a few years ago, back when markets looked much worse, so likely they have high expectations for Hevea.

The amount the directors sold recently is very small compared to average daily volume. They also did not say why they were selling, could be buy new car/big ang pao etc for CNY? The big debt issue is slowly being dealt with, with free cash flow paying off. The well noted 1.09 stop loss is likely being taken out purposely so price will dip even lower to set a lower buying in price. Fundamentally business seems supportive and mgmt seems prudent. Volatile as hit previous highs is to be expected, so trade at own risk is understood. Just my 2 sen.

Did some checking around... MDF export prices have more than doubled from Jan 2013 (sub USD$300 per m3) to end 2013 Nov of about USD$650 or more! So fundamentally well supported.

buy son still got chance as lagging still.

mmk79 - Using black scholes, with interest rate at 4% (BNM 7yr bond), volatility at o.3, with 7 yrs left, warrant is priced at 52sen with main share at 1.15 -- confirms your view for undervalued warrant. cheers!

Fed taper suggests improving US economy, if USD strengthens vs RM, will be good for Hevea.

encouraging today...son still looking undervalued? anyone?

warrants looking relatively undervalued?