Uncle Koon might be right, but for the wrong reasons. Using cooking oil to replace diesel fuel is not only impractical but also unethical, given that many poor families still struggle to afford cooking oil at reasonable prices as most of the subsidized cooking oil was smuggled to Thailand. My grandmother wisdom used to tell me don't play fool with the food on the table else next time will become hungry ghosts.

大象打架，小草遭殃
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/mindfullness/2024-11-18-story-h474606626

今天收 1588， 要来的终于来了：

看图推演 (网页链接)，如果富时大马吉隆坡综合指数失守《第一防线1580》和《第二防线1552》，将引发恐慌性抛售，全面性股灾。

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/mindfullness/2024-11-18-story-h474606626

Most stock analysts have studied this lesser-known regional niche consumer player from a wrong perspective, comparing it to well-known brands like Spritzer is like comparing local hero 99Smart to global giant 7-11 so just take the bullish forecast (and the unrealistic target price) with a pinch of salt. Go and read the analysts' bullish buy calls published last year for the crab stock named Cape EMS (CEB 5311) and see how much it is trading now! Notwithstanding the bullish buy calls in one year CEB has dropped more than 70% so never buy stock based on analyst report as their stock analysis most of the time as good as our tv weather forecast.

To be fair, those analysts should compare the price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios to similar consumer companies in comparable geographical zones. For example, Sabah-based KTC (0180) has a PE ratio of 8.3x and a PB ratio of 0.6x. Given that Sabah is a relatively small market with weak purchasing power, it offers limited growth opportunities.

A stock analyst has assigned a fair value of 74 sen per share, which is 14% above its IPO price of 65 sen, based on a FY2025 PE of 11x. This implies an forward EPS of approximately 0.06727 sen. When comparing this information with KTC, which has a PE of 8.3x, the fair value of LW Sabah should be around 0.55 sen but could be lower when the high tide has gone. Additionally, take attention that KTC is trading below its NTA, indicating that the market sentiment for Sabah-based companies is rather weak. For those who still not convinced by my crystal ball analysis, just check the reported result of Olympia (3018) which do number forecasting business in Sabah but don't think this company ever made profit even though BJToto and Magnum made ton of profits at national level so the consumer market in Sabah is really hard to understand.

FY2023

LWSabah (5328)
Sales--RM150,962,159
PBT----RM34,479,000 (22%)

KTC (0180)
Sales--RM729,390,000
PBT----RM24,233,247 (3.29%)

Spritzer (7103)
Sales--RM490,675,000
PBT----RM65,924,000 (13%)

BJFood (5196)
Sales--RM1,115,966,000
PBT----RM148,734,000 (13%)

Karex (5247)
Sales--RM532,066,000
PBT----RM15,131,000 (2.8%)

The revenue of KCT is about five times the size of LWSabah, making the 22% PBT of LWSabah potentially unsustainable given the highly depressed consumer market in Sabah. Surprisingly, KTC’s PBT is much lower than LWSabah’s. KTC might need to consider joining the bandwagon and switching to the bottled water business. However, when comparing LWSabah’s figures to national players like Spritzer or BJFood (who owned the Starbucks franchise) or Karex, it appears that LWSabah's revenue and PBT may be overly stretched. As a local consumer player based in Sabah, LWSabah seems to have outperformed all the national players by many miles ahead.

The math just don't add up so those retired uncle please think twice before you takeout all your EPF saving and all-in this company unless you really understand Sabah's erratic consumer market and also LWSabah's business model and how they can achieve such a marvelous sales and PBT but this is only my wild guess but the traded volume is getting tired so the syndicates could be running out of fuel to do the push-up exercises.

Too many crab uncles trapped in RM1 so hopefully the Taiwanese syndicate can push up the price to set free those crab uncles who took out all their EPF saving and all-in this crab stock at RM1 due to the bullish analyst report. God bless you all better take the bus to Genting Highland and play big small with Uncle Lim as the winning odd for this crab stock don't justify the risk.

很多菜鸟分析师看不懂局势，低估特朗普2.0的杀伤力。只有那些没见过狂风巨浪的股市小白才会天真相信这些菜鸟分析报告和相信马来西亚是《美中贸易战2.0》大赢家的舆论。两军交战，鬼哭神嚎，兵荒马乱，民不聊生。正规贸易战不会有赢家，无论是美国，中国还是马来西亚都是输家。全球经济就算不死，也会重伤，血流成河，惨不忍睹。

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/mindfullness/2024-11-18-story-h474606626

大象打架，小草遭殃

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/mindfullness/2024-11-18-story-h474606626

This government always claims to be serious about anti-corruption, but then Anwar stated that the whistleblower in the high-profile Sabah corruption case cannot be protected because the whistleblower himself is part of the corruption activity so Anwar implied that only "clean" person can be protected under the whistleblower acts.

Essentially, this official statement has rendered the whistleblower protection acts redundant. For a simply case study let's imagine one day your boss asks you to give under-the-table money and sexual favor to a bank officer to expedite a problematic loan application, and instead of meeting this bank officer in a secret hotel room, you report the case to MACC and ask for whistleblower protection.

Then, out of the blue you receive a phone call from a man claiming himself as legal expert named Uncle Wah stating you are not entitled to whistleblower protection because you are part and parcel of the under-the-table activity.

This whole situation makes no logical sense at all and will eventually put the credibility of this government and the integrity of the laws at risk of collapsing as 10 out of 10 whistleblowers are insider who also "involved" in the game with reliable insider information because an outsider without insider information can never provide a reliable information at the first place.

------------------------------

Types of Protection (extracted from MACC website):

1) The identity of the informant and the information provided is kept confidential and not to be disclosed to anybody, even during the trial in court. (Section 7(1)(a) Whistleblowers Protection Act 2010)

2) Whistleblowers should not be liable to any civil action, criminal or disciplinary consequences of such disclosure. (Section 7(1)(b) Whistleblowers Protection Act 2010)

3) Whistleblowers are protected from any act prejudicial to the outcome of the reaction disclosures have been made. (Section 7(1)(c) Whistleblowers Protection Act 2010)

4) Protection is also given to those who have connection / relationship with the informant. (Section 7(3) Whistleblowers Protection Act 2010)

https://www.sprm.gov.my/index.php?page_id=75&articleid=464&language=en

Question: which part of the above statement excluded the whistleblower in Sabah from the protection of Whistleblowers Protection Act 2020?

Republican Ronald Reagan, who was a cowboy actor, and Republican Donald Trump shared a lot of similar personality (including their belief in astrology) and secured the strongest mandates in American history, so Trump's economic policy is expected to resemble Reaganomics (increasing defense spending, balancing the federal budget, slowing government spending, reducing federal income tax, reducing government regulation, and tightening the money supply in order to reduce inflation).

Reagan's political move to demolish the Berlin Wall was a prelude to the downfall of the Soviet Union, pushing Stalinism back to square one. Similarly, with the sanction of Russia's oil and the freezing of USD foreign reserves, Russia is running out of financial resources to fight the Ukraine war, so Putin may gradually retreat and Trump would march forward to end the Ukraine conflict, as the war was started by Democrat Biden.

However, the Middle East conflict, which was started by Republican Bush to protect the petrodollar and his family oil business, will likely continue and escalate further. The Republicans, essentially an oil cartel, understand that any military withdrawal from the Middle East could lead to the collapse of the US dollar. For the same reasons, tensions in the South China Sea will remain high, allowing Trump to pressure South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan for protection money and force them to relocate their factories to the US.

Just like Reagan's defense system dubbed "Star Wars," Trump will push for a similar "Star War" with the help of Elon Musk's Starlink, so the trade war with China will be escalated to a cold war similar to the cold war with the Soviet Union. The whole world will be divided into two parts, and all nations have to pick a side.

With the escalated trade war (and cold war), China may totally withdraw from the US market and look for other regions to dump their goods, and this paradigm shift is expected to adversely affect nearby countries like Malaysia and Indonesia, forcing them to strengthen their anti-dumping laws and establish trade barriers against China, so the outlook of the global economy for the coming years is rather gloomy as some emerging countries may see a currency crisis or a crash in their stock market.

In fact, some history experts reckon that the current situation resembles that of WW1 and WW2, which were started by trade wars (to compete for natural resources) and then latest escalated into military wars.

种族思维大开放是假象/亦鸣

当伊党领袖与支持者在安顺斜塔挥舞大马国旗，显示他们推动爱国情结，更让马来人倾心。虽然大家都感到伊党存心不良，但这样的局面却让他们掌握了更多的政治资本。所谓大马种族思维已经大开放是假象，极端种族与宗教政治依然大行其道。他们像在“守株待兔”，等待更多的突发种族事件，来激起另一些种族的不满。通过累积的政治资本，将让他们在政治上取得头筹。

资料来源：https://www.enanyang.my/言论/种族思维大开放是假象亦鸣


阿克马言论过火 刘天球要教他礼义廉耻

刘天球说："让他（阿克马）这样一直胡闹下去，还不知道他会闯出什么大祸来。什么叫挑战底线？谁的底线？回国后我打算约见阿克马，当面让他明白什么是民族和谐，什么是礼义廉耻。"

资料来源：https://www.enanyang.my/要闻/斥阿克马言论过火-刘天球要教他礼义廉耻

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博主评语：

这个国家疯了吗？为什么这些政党，不论是在朝在野，都喜欢踩种族课题这条红线，唯恐天下不乱。刘天球说阿克马利用种族课题捞取马来选票自我宣传，其实刘天球又有什么分别？自相矛盾，自己不也是利用种族课题捞华人选票自我宣传。英雄不问出处，很多人还误以为刘天球是新华社官方代言人，为全球华人打抱不平，出一口气。

另一边厢的刘华才就比较文静，含羞哒哒，四两拨千斤，轻轻带过，不温不火，一点火药味都闻不到，一点华人选票都捞不到。早知如此，何必当初。既然如此，刘华才应该悬崖勒马，抛下政治包袱，跳出当下的政治框架，拨开云雾见天日，守得云开见月明。留在国盟已是穷途末路，迷途羔羊，死路一条，身边的战友早已走得七七八八。以其全军覆没，何不釜底抽薪，另起炉灶，放手一搏，单枪匹马，单飞打造第三股政治力量，日后必有一番作为。毕竟，马华和行动党的面具早已让人看腻，口是心非，信口开河，大炮乱射。

Terima baik, the market is expected to totally meltdown if the index failed to hold 1580 so be prepared for a perfect storm and fasten the seatbelt.

If PBB swing below RM4.4 it is better to avoid this stock. Let's say PBB can give you dividend yield of 4.8% but due to unforeseeable financial crisis PPB crashed to RM2.9 or a paper loss of 34% so at RM4.4, is this a good value buy? The answer seems obvious.

Once bitten, twice shy. George Soros was looking for an easy target to attack, so when Anwar was Finance Minister in 1997, our economy was attacked by Soros, and then fast forward to 2024, and Anwar is still our Finance Minister, and most of the promised reform failed to materialize, and most of the 1997 problems are still inherited in 2024. Coincidence?

Although most people think that lighting will not hit the same spot twice but believe it or not, this long-held myth is far from the truth as the chances of lightning striking the same place twice are actually very high (maybe due to gravity forces or magnetic field).

Global fund managers, led by George Soros, and tech moguls like Elon Musk are all-in for Trump's victory. Trump’s policies, which have shown more consistency (for better or worse) than Biden’s often indecisive approach, could trigger hyperinflation and force the Fed to hike the interest rate, strengthening the USD, reversing USD carry trades, and adding downward pressure on the ringgit.

Trump will mandate U.S. firms to bring operations back to the U.S. and restrict outsourcing jobs. The “China plus one” strategy sounds feasible on paper (try to fool or cheat the U.S. trade sanctions) but practically self-contradictory as this kind of "cheating game" will not last long.

After Trump is elected into office, Elon Musk will push fully his futuristic plans. The Optimus humanoid robot, along with xAI and Starlink, will be integrated nationwide to automate American factories, with robots handling production and driverless cars delivering goods to create an advanced infrastructure that could reduce reliance on human labor.

（布城25日讯）前首相拿督斯里纳吉就一个马来西亚发展有限公司（1MDB）舞弊案，向马来西亚人民公开道歉，首相拿督斯里安华表示乐见此事！

“我乐见（terima baik）此事。”

安华今日在布城第16区回教堂进行周五祈祷后，受询及纳吉公开道歉一事时，作出这项简单回应。

资料来源：https://www.enanyang.my/要闻/纳吉就1mdb案道歉-安华乐见此事

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博主评语：

纳吉道歉，安华开心，股市今天却暴跌 -13.93 点，一点都不开心。基金经理看到一个完美的政治风暴可能就要来了。安华好彩是说 "terima baik" 不是说 "terima kasih" 。可是 "terima baik" 如果翻译中文也可以是"搞定"的意思。时光如梭，扎希可以撑几久，没有人说的准。团结政府随时倒台，应该也不会是什么大新闻吧?

Banking M&A from 0.93x to 2.35x of book value:

2018 Asian Finance Bank Berhad MBSB 1.30
2013 Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad BIMB Holdings Berhad 1.88
2013 Hwang DBS Affin Holdings 1.28
2012 OSK Investment Bank Berhad RHB Capital Berhad 1.77
2012 ECM Libra Investment Bank Berhad Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad 1.27
2011 RHB Capital Berhad Aabar Investments 2.35
2011 EON Capital Berhad Hong Leong Bank Berhad 1.42
2008 Bank Muamalat Malaysia Berhad DRB-Hicom Berhad 2.15
2008 EON Capital Berhad Primus Pacific Partners 2.21
2008 RHB Capital Berhad Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 2.18
2007 Affin Holdings Bank of East Asia 1.30
2007 MIDF PNB 0.93
2007 RHB Capital Berhad Employees Provident Fund of Malaysia 1.76
2007 AMMB Holdings Berhad Australia and New Zealand Banking Group 1.29

(Courtesy of Beluga from Affin Bank forum)

------------------------------

Quick Note: if Public Bank decided to standstill like a lame duck and be taken over by other bank to call it a day the floor price should be around RM4.35 or 1.5x of book value. However if they decided to stand like a man and put up a big fight to become MEGA BANK vis-a-vis Maybank and RHB , it will be an expensive war and a nightmare so the floor price should around RM2.9 or could be much lower if EPF and PNB refused to give up the fight.

The proposed takeover of EONCap by HLBB has all the makings of a replay of the hostile takeover of Southern Bank Bhd (SBB) by the CIMB Group back in 2005.

industry observers say there have been indications that HLBB isn’t willing to pay anything above 1.3-1.5 times price-to-book value (PBV) for EONCap, based on its rather low return on equity (ROE) of 4.2% and return on assets of 0.3% in FY2008.

Thus, based on its 2008 book value (BV) of RM4.62, this works out to between RM6.15 and RM7.10 a share. EONCap’s projected BV for 2009 is RM5.05 — which means that the price that Quek may be willing to pay is anything between RM6.76 and RM7.50 a share.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/cover-story-quek-prowl

Malaysia’s Southern Bank rejects hostile offer

The robust defence from the country’s second-smallest bank sets the scene for a highly charged takeover battle, the largest in Malaysia’s financial sector to date and one that could result in one of the biggest deals in south-east Asia this year.

Southern Bank’s blunt statement to the stock exchange did not identify its potential alternative partner. But it said it had asked the central bank for permission to enter into negotiations, a local requirement.

“The board believes an alternative takeover partner will be available that will maximise value to our shareholders,” Southern said, describing the would-be partner as a “major local financial institution”.

Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank have been widely touted as possible partners for Southern, which said last week it was looking for a “white knight” suitor after months of talks with BCH failed to yield a friendly deal.

https://www.ft.com/content/f0b07fc0-9d4a-11da-b1c6-0000779e2340

The banking landscapes of Malaysia (GDP USD 460 billion) and Singapore (GDP USD 470 billion) may seem similar at first glance, but Malaysia is at least 30 years behind in terms of financial strength and sophistication. Singapore’s Monetary Authority successfully merged their local banks into just three MEGA Banks (DBS, UOB, OCBC), positioning them as strong players on the global stage. Meanwhile, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) still faces significant resistance from small and mid-sized local banks to consolidate. As a result, Malaysia’s banking environment remains closed door and lacking international competition.

There’s no doubt that Public Bank (NTA RM2.9) has been well-managed for decades, but the time has come for them to either lead the consolidation game and take out their cheque book to acquire smaller banks to transform into a MEGA Bank or risk being taken over by a more aggressive competitor. It’s no surprise that Public Bank has instilled a so-called "corporate poison pill" strategy to fence off hostile takeover, but this will only delay the process, but no way they can reverse the MEGA TREND engineered by BNM so the day is numbered as the forced merger may come sooner than anyone's expectation.

As for those who are naysaying about the bad fengshui of Public Bank (NTA RM2.9) and AMBank (NTA RM6), perhaps they should check out Affin Bank's (NTA RM4.7) new headquarters at TRX. Since they moved into their new building, their positive QI has been rising like a super star! Coincidence?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8ljTakTHOo&t=139s

Most analysts have rated positively Public Bank, claiming that the sky is clear after news came out that the Teh family has employed a mix of "golden handcuffs" and a "corporate poison pill" strategy to make Public Bank less attractive for hostile takeovers. But doesn’t that seem contradictory? Why would the Teh family want to limit their own options if, one day, PNB came knocking on their door offering to buy their shares at double the market price?

A more logical explanation the Restricted Offer for Sale (ROS) was proposed by Public Bank's management as a "sweetener" to facilitate their purchase of LPI's shares from the Teh family. In reality, this ROS might clash with Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)’s efforts to institutionalize the banking sector to engineer a MEGA BANK through forced mergers. Currently, Maybank has a market cap of USD 31.49 billion, while DBS sits at a massive USD 84.58 billion. Clearly, Malaysia’s banking sector has some catching up to do.

To navigate the potential outcomes, let’s consider the ANZ-AMBank as a case study. ANZ put up its 16.5% in AMBank via block trade at RM3.85 per share (compared to its NTA of RM6.05), which also represented a 8.3% discount to the closing price of RM4.20. Using Public Bank’s NTA of RM2.90 as a starting point, we can run a back-of-the-envelope calculation to estimate the potential impact on share price. If BNM approves the ROS, it would undoubtedly spark political resistance, as the ROS appears to directly undermine BNM's Financial Services Act 2013 (FSA). So the big question is whether BNM will challenge the ROS and block the deal to ensure the smooth progress of the consolidation of the banking sector. The answer seems obvious!

ASML业绩暴雷冲击市场 全球芯片股市值蒸发1.8兆

总部位于荷兰的阿斯麦发布预警，给芯片股从夏季抛售中强劲反弹的势头泼了一盆冷水。

这家全球最先进的芯片制造设备供应商，因AI以外领域低迷而下调业绩展望，其股价周二在欧洲市场创下1998年以来最大跌幅。

资料来源: https://www.enanyang.my/国际财经/asml业绩暴雷冲击市场-全球芯片股市值蒸发18兆

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博主评语：

在过去六个月里，主要科技巨头如ASML（-29%）、英特尔（-37%）和三星（-25%）的股价大幅下滑，可能暗示着AI泡沫已经悄然破裂。然而，许多散户投资者似乎还没有意识到这一变化。

在AI生态系统中，美国和中国的技术水平可以算是“博士”，台湾和印度是“准博士”，新加坡和越南则是“硕士”水平。而马来西亚，恐怕连小学都还没毕业。然而，我们的媒体和官员却频频高调宣称要成为“AI强国”。但成为AI强国真的是一件容易的事吗？这个世界难道真的有免费的AI午餐？

谷歌透露该公司在马来西亚的投资将创造2万6500个就业岗位，到2030年将为大马经济贡献超过30亿美元（约125亿令吉）。根据外媒，谷歌在大马耗资20亿美元（约83亿令吉）的新数据中心和云区域已经动工。

资料来源: https://www.enanyang.my/财经新闻/谷歌在马数据中心动工-“将贡献gdp逾125亿”

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博主评语：

这个新闻太过笼统。2万6500个就业岗位，有几个是来自谷歌这家公司？换句话说，如果2万6500个就业岗位不是来自谷歌，为经济贡献30亿美元也肯定不是谷歌本尊。政府可以直接从谷歌那边征收多少盈利税？不会是零吧？这个故事就像日本人来马来西亚卖电饭煲，然后和我们说如果买这个电饭煲，就可以为马来西亚创造2万6500个就业岗位，为大马经济贡献超过30亿美元。

黑鞋白鞋，高官大人只会搞一些不是改革的改革，只会搞门面功夫，却从来不解决问题的根源。黑猫白猫，教育是国家经济发展的基石，如今却成了国家经济发展的絆腳石，让马来西亚成为一只跛脚鸭。

越南经济迅速崛起，全方位超越我们，而马来西亚还在原地踏步，发白日梦。根据一份国际报告，马来西亚的学生平均在学校待了12.5年，但他们实际只学到了8.9年的内容。更严重的是，有42%的学生在小学五年级结束时，阅读水平依然不达标。这样的国家栋梁，怎么撑得起一个未来？还说什么要成为AI强国，只是痴人说梦话。

贵多不贵精，不难想象，国家在这样的基础上脆弱发展，必然会逐步走向沉沦。如果当年大陆没有经济开放深圳和全世界公平竞争，今天的中国就不是今天的中国，甚至可能比今天的巴基斯坦还要沉沦。古人说，养不教，父之过；教不严，师之惰。要提升国家竞争力，必须打破现有体制，实现《有教无类，政教分离》，不要把政治因素带进国家教育体系，完完全全开放本地政府大学, 让全民公平竞争，国家的经济实力才能在国际舞台上立足。

优大免税优待

根据财政部副部长林慧英透露，拉曼学院教育基金会拥有免税优待，但拉曼大学（优大）却没有申请免税优待。如今根据财政部所发出的追税行动，优大须缴付税务与罚款共8300万令吉，这简直让华社感到晴天霹雳。许多人觉得政府给拉曼教育基金会4000万令吉拨款，却想通过追税抽取8300万令吉，简直不可思议。

资料来源：https://www.enanyang.my/灼见/【灼见】优大应获免税优待洪东水

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博主评语：

朝中有人好办事，这场闹剧简直是天大的笑话，根本不应该发生。难道部长大人在睡午觉？部长大人应该为为华社《鞠躬尽瘁，竭尽心力》，在前线第一时间把关。在财政部还没出公文的时候，就截距下来这颗8300万令吉的“晴天霹雳导弹”。看来行动党和当年马华窘境没俩样，当家不当权，只是一个美丽的花瓶。

Economically there is no reason for Malaysia to build high speed train as we are not yet a high income country. Totally agreed with both Tony (Tony Fernandes and Tony Pua) flying with AA is better option as everyone can fly. If the government go ahead with the high speed train it will kill two birds with one stone as both AA and HSR will be competing with each other and both will fail to achieve the economies of scales. It is sad that DAP is trying to sideline Tony Pua and Kian Ming as both really talking with logical sense.

KUCHING - Malaysia’s Sarawak state aims to provide up to one gigawatt (GW) of renewable energy to Singapore by 2032, with negotiations to supply the electricity via submarine cables now at an advanced stage, according to Sarawak state energy unit Sarawak Energy Berhad (SEB).

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/sarawak-in-talks-to-supply-1-gw-renewable-energy-to-s-pore-by-2032-sarawak-energy

If I read the news correctly, Sarawak will incur zero cost in this power supply to Singapore as the undersea cable will be built by Singapore at their own cost. The big question is why don't Singapore buy from Peninsular Malaysia with cheaper startup cost? Yes, the answer maybe related to RE to comply with the world's highest standard of ESG but those who have high tech knowledge must know this kind of undersea cable can be used to transmit high-speed data (Broadband over Power Lines) and all these developments are pointing to one direction that is AI technology and maybe in future the plan is to link up to Indonesia Nusantara and then all the way to Australia. Never underestimate the imagination of our small neighbor as they always think ahead of time and always several decades ahead of us in economic planning.

Affin Bank as long as trading above 2.15 the uptrend remains valid. Not sure what caused the deep pull back but technically the correction is within expectation.

Affin Bank is the smallest bank in Malaysia so it is kind of interesting that it has attracted the attention of the Sarawak government. Sarawak is the most powerful state in Malaysia which is asking to increase their parliament seats to more than 30%. With this kind of political ambition it is unlikely that Sarawak will be pleased with only a five percent stake in Affin Banks.