Some retired uncles may not be able to understand what is DY/Beta ratio. For example, Maybank 5-year Beta stands at 0.27 which means when KLCI drops by 1% Maybank will drop by 0.27% so Mabank is considered highly defensive stock and then Maybank also provides dividend yield of 5.56% which means when KLCI drops by 1% Maybank will drop by 0.27% but it will also provide 5.56% in dividend yield so to speak the dividend yield of Maybank can cover 20.59x the price volatility of Maybank.

Please provide a web link or screenshot for the mentioned cloned article; otherwise, it’s just speculation. Followings are reposted from my blog so don't be confused you have seen the same article in other website:

-------------DY (%) |Beta* | DY/Beta
Maybank----- [ 5.56 | 0.27 | 20.59 ]
RHB Bank---- [ 6.24 | 0.38 | 16.42 ]
AMBank------ [ 4.38 | 0.30 | 14.60 ]
ABMB-------- [ 5.20 | 0.42 | 12.38 ]
HL Bank----- [ 3.37 | 0.32 | 10.53 ]
Public Bank- [ 4.52 | 0.48 | 9.42 ]
CIMB-------- [ 4.98 | 0.55 | 9.05 ]
AFFIN Bank-- [ 1.93 | 0.27 | 7.15 ]

* 5-year Beta

Explanation Notes:

Most retirees invest in banking stocks for dividends as source of retirement income will look for a stock with the highest absolute dividend yield. However, financial experts will approach this strategy differently and analyze the dividend yield relative to the risk indicated by price volatility. Another word, they will look for a dividend stock with the highest winning odds and the lowest risk/uncertainty in order to construct an optimal investment portfolio.

Thus, a dividend stock with higher DY/Beta ratio is preferable. Currently, Maybank (20.59x), RHB (16.42x), and AMBank (14.60x) are leading the pack in search of high yield banking stocks. However, it’s important to remember that dividend yields can fluctuate, so keeping this ratio updated is crucial.

On the latest one-year basis, Public Bank's DY/Beta ratio stands at 3.86x (4.52/1.17) has underperformed Affin Bank's 4.10 (1.93/0.47). Additionally, financial theory suggests that any investment with a beta above 1x is not considered defensive. Hence, the one-year beta for Public Bank at 1.17x is a red flag that many retail investors may have overlooked.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/mindfullness/2024-10-18-story-h471922494

-------------DY (%) |Beta* | DY/Beta
Maybank----- [ 5.56 | 0.27 | 20.59 ]
RHB Bank---- [ 6.24 | 0.38 | 16.42 ]
AMBank------ [ 4.38 | 0.30 | 14.60 ]
ABMB-------- [ 5.20 | 0.42 | 12.38 ]
HL Bank----- [ 3.37 | 0.32 | 10.53 ]
Public Bank- [ 4.52 | 0.48 | 9.42 ]
CIMB-------- [ 4.98 | 0.55 | 9.05 ]
AFFIN Bank-- [ 1.93 | 0.27 | 7.15 ]

* 5-year Beta

Explanation Notes:

Most retirees invest in banking stocks for dividends as source of retirement income will look for a stock with the highest absolute dividend yield. However, financial experts will approach this strategy differently and analyze the dividend yield relative to the risk indicated by price volatility. Another word, they will look for a dividend stock with the highest winning odds and the lowest risk/uncertainty in order to construct an optimal investment portfolio.

Thus, a dividend stock with higher DY/Beta ratio is preferable. Currently, Maybank (20.59x), RHB (16.42x), and AMBank (14.60x) are leading the pack in search of high yield banking stocks. However, it’s important to remember that dividend yields can fluctuate, so keeping this ratio updated is crucial.

On the latest one-year basis, Public Bank's DY/Beta ratio stands at 3.86x (4.52/1.17) has underperformed Affin Bank's 4.10 (1.93/0.47). Additionally, financial theory suggests that any investment with a beta above 1x is not considered defensive. Hence, the one-year beta for Public Bank at 1.17x is a red flag that many retail investors may have overlooked.

The 2024 U.S. election will repeat history, similar to when Republican Trump won the 2016 presidential election against Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton. This time, it will be no different, as Democrat candidate Kamala Harris is leading the pre-election polls by a smaller margin (Kamala 5% vs. Hillary 8%). Based on the last result, it indicates that the statistical error for pre-election polls has a widely margin error of more than 8%, so Kamala with her 5% rating is actually statistically behind Trump. Both Hillary and Kamala are female candidates, but just like the national sports game NBA, which is dominated by male players, psychologically Americans prefer male candidates to perform the political wrestling game for them.

According to conspiracy theories, the U.S. is politically and economically controlled by Jewish tycoons. Trump formally recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel on December 6, 2017, so for Jewish people, Trump will be more acceptable than Kamala (who is reportedly actually from Malaysia, and Malaysians like to boycott American brands such as McDonald's, Starbucks, and KFC). Therefore, the odds are in favor of Trump becoming the 47th U.S. president because Trump was an odd-numbered president (45th).

If Hillary, with her strong backing from female voters and her top-class academic background (graduated from Yale University, ranked 5th in US and 7th in the world), could not win against Trump, it is unlikely that Kamala (from Howard University, ranked 86th in US and 1200 in the world) will do better. Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and whoever wins Pennsylvania will win the US election. Coincidence? 

种族思维大开放是假象/亦鸣

当伊党领袖与支持者在安顺斜塔挥舞大马国旗，显示他们推动爱国情结，更让马来人倾心。虽然大家都感到伊党存心不良，但这样的局面却让他们掌握了更多的政治资本。所谓大马种族思维已经大开放是假象，极端种族与宗教政治依然大行其道。他们像在“守株待兔”，等待更多的突发种族事件，来激起另一些种族的不满。通过累积的政治资本，将让他们在政治上取得头筹。

资料来源：https://www.enanyang.my/言论/种族思维大开放是假象亦鸣


阿克马言论过火 刘天球要教他礼义廉耻

刘天球说："让他（阿克马）这样一直胡闹下去，还不知道他会闯出什么大祸来。什么叫挑战底线？谁的底线？回国后我打算约见阿克马，当面让他明白什么是民族和谐，什么是礼义廉耻。"

资料来源：https://www.enanyang.my/要闻/斥阿克马言论过火-刘天球要教他礼义廉耻

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博主评语：

这个国家疯了吗？为什么这些政党，不论是在朝在野，都喜欢踩种族课题这条红线，唯恐天下不乱。刘天球说阿克马利用种族课题捞取马来选票自我宣传，其实刘天球又有什么分别？自相矛盾，自己不也是利用种族课题捞华人选票自我宣传。英雄不问出处，很多人还误以为刘天球是新华社官方代言人，为全球华人打抱不平，出一口气。

另一边厢的刘华才就比较文静，含羞哒哒，四两拨千斤，轻轻带过，不温不火，一点火药味都闻不到，一点华人选票都捞不到。早知如此，何必当初。既然如此，刘华才应该悬崖勒马，抛下政治包袱，跳出当下的政治框架，拨开云雾见天日，守得云开见月明。留在国盟已是穷途末路，迷途羔羊，死路一条，身边的战友早已走得七七八八。以其全军覆没，何不釜底抽薪，另起炉灶，放手一搏，单枪匹马，单飞打造第三股政治力量，日后必有一番作为。毕竟，马华和行动党的面具早已让人看腻，口是心非，信口开河，大炮乱射。

Terima baik, the market is expected to totally meltdown if the index failed to hold 1580 so be prepared for a perfect storm and fasten the seatbelt.

If PBB swing below RM4.4 it is better to avoid this stock. Let's say PBB can give you dividend yield of 4.8% but due to unforeseeable financial crisis PPB crashed to RM2.9 or a paper loss of 34% so at RM4.4, is this a good value buy? The answer seems obvious.

Once bitten, twice shy. George Soros was looking for an easy target to attack, so when Anwar was Finance Minister in 1997, our economy was attacked by Soros, and then fast forward to 2024, and Anwar is still our Finance Minister, and most of the promised reform failed to materialize, and most of the 1997 problems are still inherited in 2024. Coincidence?

Although most people think that lighting will not hit the same spot twice but believe it or not, this long-held myth is far from the truth as the chances of lightning striking the same place twice are actually very high (maybe due to gravity forces or magnetic field).

Global fund managers, led by George Soros, and tech moguls like Elon Musk are all-in for Trump's victory. Trump’s policies, which have shown more consistency (for better or worse) than Biden’s often indecisive approach, could trigger hyperinflation and force the Fed to hike the interest rate, strengthening the USD, reversing USD carry trades, and adding downward pressure on the ringgit.

Trump will mandate U.S. firms to bring operations back to the U.S. and restrict outsourcing jobs. The “China plus one” strategy sounds feasible on paper (try to fool or cheat the U.S. trade sanctions) but practically self-contradictory as this kind of "cheating game" will not last long.

After Trump is elected into office, Elon Musk will push fully his futuristic plans. The Optimus humanoid robot, along with xAI and Starlink, will be integrated nationwide to automate American factories, with robots handling production and driverless cars delivering goods to create an advanced infrastructure that could reduce reliance on human labor.

（布城25日讯）前首相拿督斯里纳吉就一个马来西亚发展有限公司（1MDB）舞弊案，向马来西亚人民公开道歉，首相拿督斯里安华表示乐见此事！

“我乐见（terima baik）此事。”

安华今日在布城第16区回教堂进行周五祈祷后，受询及纳吉公开道歉一事时，作出这项简单回应。

资料来源：https://www.enanyang.my/要闻/纳吉就1mdb案道歉-安华乐见此事

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博主评语：

纳吉道歉，安华开心，股市今天却暴跌 -13.93 点，一点都不开心。基金经理看到一个完美的政治风暴可能就要来了。安华好彩是说 "terima baik" 不是说 "terima kasih" 。可是 "terima baik" 如果翻译中文也可以是"搞定"的意思。时光如梭，扎希可以撑几久，没有人说的准。团结政府随时倒台，应该也不会是什么大新闻吧?

Banking M&A from 0.93x to 2.35x of book value:

2018 Asian Finance Bank Berhad MBSB 1.30
2013 Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad BIMB Holdings Berhad 1.88
2013 Hwang DBS Affin Holdings 1.28
2012 OSK Investment Bank Berhad RHB Capital Berhad 1.77
2012 ECM Libra Investment Bank Berhad Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad 1.27
2011 RHB Capital Berhad Aabar Investments 2.35
2011 EON Capital Berhad Hong Leong Bank Berhad 1.42
2008 Bank Muamalat Malaysia Berhad DRB-Hicom Berhad 2.15
2008 EON Capital Berhad Primus Pacific Partners 2.21
2008 RHB Capital Berhad Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 2.18
2007 Affin Holdings Bank of East Asia 1.30
2007 MIDF PNB 0.93
2007 RHB Capital Berhad Employees Provident Fund of Malaysia 1.76
2007 AMMB Holdings Berhad Australia and New Zealand Banking Group 1.29

(Courtesy of Beluga from Affin Bank forum)

------------------------------

Quick Note: if Public Bank decided to standstill like a lame duck and be taken over by other bank to call it a day the floor price should be around RM4.35 or 1.5x of book value. However if they decided to stand like a man and put up a big fight to become MEGA BANK vis-a-vis Maybank and RHB , it will be an expensive war and a nightmare so the floor price should around RM2.9 or could be much lower if EPF and PNB refused to give up the fight.

The proposed takeover of EONCap by HLBB has all the makings of a replay of the hostile takeover of Southern Bank Bhd (SBB) by the CIMB Group back in 2005.

industry observers say there have been indications that HLBB isn’t willing to pay anything above 1.3-1.5 times price-to-book value (PBV) for EONCap, based on its rather low return on equity (ROE) of 4.2% and return on assets of 0.3% in FY2008.

Thus, based on its 2008 book value (BV) of RM4.62, this works out to between RM6.15 and RM7.10 a share. EONCap’s projected BV for 2009 is RM5.05 — which means that the price that Quek may be willing to pay is anything between RM6.76 and RM7.50 a share.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/cover-story-quek-prowl

Malaysia’s Southern Bank rejects hostile offer

The robust defence from the country’s second-smallest bank sets the scene for a highly charged takeover battle, the largest in Malaysia’s financial sector to date and one that could result in one of the biggest deals in south-east Asia this year.

Southern Bank’s blunt statement to the stock exchange did not identify its potential alternative partner. But it said it had asked the central bank for permission to enter into negotiations, a local requirement.

“The board believes an alternative takeover partner will be available that will maximise value to our shareholders,” Southern said, describing the would-be partner as a “major local financial institution”.

Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank have been widely touted as possible partners for Southern, which said last week it was looking for a “white knight” suitor after months of talks with BCH failed to yield a friendly deal.

https://www.ft.com/content/f0b07fc0-9d4a-11da-b1c6-0000779e2340

The banking landscapes of Malaysia (GDP USD 460 billion) and Singapore (GDP USD 470 billion) may seem similar at first glance, but Malaysia is at least 30 years behind in terms of financial strength and sophistication. Singapore’s Monetary Authority successfully merged their local banks into just three MEGA Banks (DBS, UOB, OCBC), positioning them as strong players on the global stage. Meanwhile, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) still faces significant resistance from small and mid-sized local banks to consolidate. As a result, Malaysia’s banking environment remains closed door and lacking international competition.

There’s no doubt that Public Bank (NTA RM2.9) has been well-managed for decades, but the time has come for them to either lead the consolidation game and take out their cheque book to acquire smaller banks to transform into a MEGA Bank or risk being taken over by a more aggressive competitor. It’s no surprise that Public Bank has instilled a so-called "corporate poison pill" strategy to fence off hostile takeover, but this will only delay the process, but no way they can reverse the MEGA TREND engineered by BNM so the day is numbered as the forced merger may come sooner than anyone's expectation.

As for those who are naysaying about the bad fengshui of Public Bank (NTA RM2.9) and AMBank (NTA RM6), perhaps they should check out Affin Bank's (NTA RM4.7) new headquarters at TRX. Since they moved into their new building, their positive QI has been rising like a super star! Coincidence?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8ljTakTHOo&t=139s

Most analysts have rated positively Public Bank, claiming that the sky is clear after news came out that the Teh family has employed a mix of "golden handcuffs" and a "corporate poison pill" strategy to make Public Bank less attractive for hostile takeovers. But doesn’t that seem contradictory? Why would the Teh family want to limit their own options if, one day, PNB came knocking on their door offering to buy their shares at double the market price?

A more logical explanation the Restricted Offer for Sale (ROS) was proposed by Public Bank's management as a "sweetener" to facilitate their purchase of LPI's shares from the Teh family. In reality, this ROS might clash with Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)’s efforts to institutionalize the banking sector to engineer a MEGA BANK through forced mergers. Currently, Maybank has a market cap of USD 31.49 billion, while DBS sits at a massive USD 84.58 billion. Clearly, Malaysia’s banking sector has some catching up to do.

To navigate the potential outcomes, let’s consider the ANZ-AMBank as a case study. ANZ put up its 16.5% in AMBank via block trade at RM3.85 per share (compared to its NTA of RM6.05), which also represented a 8.3% discount to the closing price of RM4.20. Using Public Bank’s NTA of RM2.90 as a starting point, we can run a back-of-the-envelope calculation to estimate the potential impact on share price. If BNM approves the ROS, it would undoubtedly spark political resistance, as the ROS appears to directly undermine BNM's Financial Services Act 2013 (FSA). So the big question is whether BNM will challenge the ROS and block the deal to ensure the smooth progress of the consolidation of the banking sector. The answer seems obvious!

ASML业绩暴雷冲击市场 全球芯片股市值蒸发1.8兆

总部位于荷兰的阿斯麦发布预警，给芯片股从夏季抛售中强劲反弹的势头泼了一盆冷水。

这家全球最先进的芯片制造设备供应商，因AI以外领域低迷而下调业绩展望，其股价周二在欧洲市场创下1998年以来最大跌幅。

资料来源: https://www.enanyang.my/国际财经/asml业绩暴雷冲击市场-全球芯片股市值蒸发18兆

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博主评语：

在过去六个月里，主要科技巨头如ASML（-29%）、英特尔（-37%）和三星（-25%）的股价大幅下滑，可能暗示着AI泡沫已经悄然破裂。然而，许多散户投资者似乎还没有意识到这一变化。

在AI生态系统中，美国和中国的技术水平可以算是“博士”，台湾和印度是“准博士”，新加坡和越南则是“硕士”水平。而马来西亚，恐怕连小学都还没毕业。然而，我们的媒体和官员却频频高调宣称要成为“AI强国”。但成为AI强国真的是一件容易的事吗？这个世界难道真的有免费的AI午餐？

谷歌透露该公司在马来西亚的投资将创造2万6500个就业岗位，到2030年将为大马经济贡献超过30亿美元（约125亿令吉）。根据外媒，谷歌在大马耗资20亿美元（约83亿令吉）的新数据中心和云区域已经动工。

资料来源: https://www.enanyang.my/财经新闻/谷歌在马数据中心动工-“将贡献gdp逾125亿”

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博主评语：

这个新闻太过笼统。2万6500个就业岗位，有几个是来自谷歌这家公司？换句话说，如果2万6500个就业岗位不是来自谷歌，为经济贡献30亿美元也肯定不是谷歌本尊。政府可以直接从谷歌那边征收多少盈利税？不会是零吧？这个故事就像日本人来马来西亚卖电饭煲，然后和我们说如果买这个电饭煲，就可以为马来西亚创造2万6500个就业岗位，为大马经济贡献超过30亿美元。

黑鞋白鞋，高官大人只会搞一些不是改革的改革，只会搞门面功夫，却从来不解决问题的根源。黑猫白猫，教育是国家经济发展的基石，如今却成了国家经济发展的絆腳石，让马来西亚成为一只跛脚鸭。

越南经济迅速崛起，全方位超越我们，而马来西亚还在原地踏步，发白日梦。根据一份国际报告，马来西亚的学生平均在学校待了12.5年，但他们实际只学到了8.9年的内容。更严重的是，有42%的学生在小学五年级结束时，阅读水平依然不达标。这样的国家栋梁，怎么撑得起一个未来？还说什么要成为AI强国，只是痴人说梦话。

贵多不贵精，不难想象，国家在这样的基础上脆弱发展，必然会逐步走向沉沦。如果当年大陆没有经济开放深圳和全世界公平竞争，今天的中国就不是今天的中国，甚至可能比今天的巴基斯坦还要沉沦。古人说，养不教，父之过；教不严，师之惰。要提升国家竞争力，必须打破现有体制，实现《有教无类，政教分离》，不要把政治因素带进国家教育体系，完完全全开放本地政府大学, 让全民公平竞争，国家的经济实力才能在国际舞台上立足。

优大免税优待

根据财政部副部长林慧英透露，拉曼学院教育基金会拥有免税优待，但拉曼大学（优大）却没有申请免税优待。如今根据财政部所发出的追税行动，优大须缴付税务与罚款共8300万令吉，这简直让华社感到晴天霹雳。许多人觉得政府给拉曼教育基金会4000万令吉拨款，却想通过追税抽取8300万令吉，简直不可思议。

资料来源：https://www.enanyang.my/灼见/【灼见】优大应获免税优待洪东水

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博主评语：

朝中有人好办事，这场闹剧简直是天大的笑话，根本不应该发生。难道部长大人在睡午觉？部长大人应该为为华社《鞠躬尽瘁，竭尽心力》，在前线第一时间把关。在财政部还没出公文的时候，就截距下来这颗8300万令吉的“晴天霹雳导弹”。看来行动党和当年马华窘境没俩样，当家不当权，只是一个美丽的花瓶。

ICAP fund (2.96 MYR) was listed on YR2005 just in time to catch the KLCI high-speed-rail took off from around 900 (YR2005) to 1800 (YR2014) or a return of 100% due to our boss's (YR2009–2018) pump priming economic model. Warren Buffet said "only when the tide goes out do you learn who has been swimming naked" so the impressive return of the ICAP fund during the period from YR2005-2014 was statistically speaking fueled by the tidal wave effect so we zoom in further to most recent ten years (YR2013-2023) we will see more evidence that when the high tide receded ICAP fund actually will only give you around 2.5% return per year which statistically speaking underperformed EPF but of course this is not a red flag but just that those who enter at this level should not have too high expectation especially TTB is waiting for KLCI to hit 3000 level due to China's recovery but using Japan as a guide it will take around 20-30 years to clean up the twin bubbles of property crash and debt crash. If we see ICAP fund's YR2023 audited portfolio the result actually is not that impressive especially those investments losses associated with BIOHLDG (-RM7.8m) and Parkson (-RM20m). It is not easy to duplicate Warren Buffet's value investing in Bursa as most of Warren Buffet's stock picks are actually those market leaders with the ability to "control" the global markets and enormous capability to generate free cashflow for Warren Buffer to reinvest and grow his portfolio at 20% per year.

Today's low 3.95 should be near basement level as 3.85 is considered as the wholesale price with wholesale discount of RM0.10. Just a wild guess the new buyer could be linked to Japanese Bank as their stock market is doing extremely well recently.

Those who bet on Affin are banking on the mega projects in Sarawak (which is also trying to invite the Harvard of China not sure is Tsinghua University or Fudan University to open up a branch in Sarawak). Those with basic economic knowledge will know that weakening ringgit is a dangerous sign for economic crisis as the main problem is the US carry trade and local interest rate has lagged behind the curve which caused the hot money reverted back to US shore. Instead of collecting data for PADU, the minister of economy should collect data to determine which companies are exposed to high debts and whether or not these companies will cause systematic risks to our banking system. It seemed that our minister of economy was not trained in Economics 101 as he kind of saying that falling ringgit is good for the economy as it will attract more foreign investors to invest in Malaysia but this argument made no sense at all as foreign investors will not come to Malaysia for cheap ringgit (the yield of ringgit is too low) as foreign investors only interested to know whether our high school students are well educated and our labor are competitive enough to produce good quality products for them to sell at international marketplace but first of all we need to well verse in international language or else how can we write Python programming to control an automated machines invented by these foreign investors. Why is falling ringgit bad for local company? AirAsia's cost structure was 40% jet fuel and jet fuel is traded in USD but AirAsia's air tickets are priced in ringgit so last time they can collect RM3.8 to pay for USD1 of jet fuel and now they have to collect RM4.8 to pay for USD1 of jet fuel and that will reduce their capacity to serve their loans so the minister of economy must collect data and do simulation to see the falling effect of ringgit to the household sectors as they are highly exposed to loans and may cause systematic risk to banking sectors just like last time 97 Asian Crisis was caused by the nonperforming corporate loans.

The business model of AA is proven so why should we kill the golden goose and opt for the high speed black swan which made no sense at all as far as game theory is concerned.

The minister who always talk about BMW really made Malaysia an an international laughing matter. Who in the world will make their dark history linked to "war camp" a UNESCO World Heritage? Heritage sites are something that give our nation an unique identity and something that we all should be proud of.

The reason Hiroshima is declared UNESCO sites is because Japan is trying to make US and the whole world look really bad (so something like that) for political reason as if the whole world owed them.

In absolute figure GDP Indonesia is not a small country but an economic giant. Malaysia government is loaded with heavy debt and the minister of economy still cannot find a sensible solution to normalize the petrol subsidy (RM50b).

As a minister of economy it is his duty to collect big data to predict the direction of oil price, gold price, USD/Yen, US interest rate and so on but somehow he spends so much time to reinvent the wheel and collect PADU statistic (which is already captured in DOS or MOF's database) to see how to allocate the petrol subsidy which is more of welfare matter rather than an economic issues.

As a minister of economy, he should release a public statement and inform public what is the economic impact of weakening ringgit so the business sectors can plan ahead and see how to hedge their foreign currency contracts. This is what I call a minister of economy.

Come back to the HSR issue. Most people from Singapore will take it to eat BKT in Klang and most people from KL will take it to eat Hainan Chicken Rice in Singapore as most business transactions are done thru internet so do we need HSR for that matter?

Economically there is no reason for Malaysia to build high speed train as we are not yet a high income country. Totally agreed with both Tony (Tony Fernandes and Tony Pua) flying with AA is better option as everyone can fly. If the government go ahead with the high speed train it will kill two birds with one stone as both AA and HSR will be competing with each other and both will fail to achieve the economies of scales. It is sad that DAP is trying to sideline Tony Pua and Kian Ming as both really talking with logical sense.

See Indonesia's GDP and it will shock you :)

https://i.postimg.cc/VkYFp7vx/Indonesia-GDP.jpg

Economically there is no reason for Malaysia to build high speed train as we are not yet a high income country. Totally agreed with both Tony (Tony Fernandes and Tony Pua) flying with AA is better option as everyone can fly. If the government go ahead with the high speed train it will kill two birds with one stone as both AA and HSR will be competing with each other and both will fail to achieve the economies of scales. It is sad that DAP is trying to sideline Tony Pua and Kian Ming as both really talking with logical sense.

KUCHING - Malaysia’s Sarawak state aims to provide up to one gigawatt (GW) of renewable energy to Singapore by 2032, with negotiations to supply the electricity via submarine cables now at an advanced stage, according to Sarawak state energy unit Sarawak Energy Berhad (SEB).

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/sarawak-in-talks-to-supply-1-gw-renewable-energy-to-s-pore-by-2032-sarawak-energy

If I read the news correctly, Sarawak will incur zero cost in this power supply to Singapore as the undersea cable will be built by Singapore at their own cost. The big question is why don't Singapore buy from Peninsular Malaysia with cheaper startup cost? Yes, the answer maybe related to RE to comply with the world's highest standard of ESG but those who have high tech knowledge must know this kind of undersea cable can be used to transmit high-speed data (Broadband over Power Lines) and all these developments are pointing to one direction that is AI technology and maybe in future the plan is to link up to Indonesia Nusantara and then all the way to Australia. Never underestimate the imagination of our small neighbor as they always think ahead of time and always several decades ahead of us in economic planning.

Abang Jo will provide the floor support at 2.4 and this strong support level at 2.4 is highly visible on technical chart but the price action is telling more story either Sarawakian billionaires are collecting the share to beef up their control on this banking group or some other professional corporate raiders linked to top bankers such as Quek Leng Chan, Chua Ma Yu, Tong Kooi Ong also interested in this banking group so those who are late to the party it looks like the night is still young 😁

It is such a surprise that EON Bank and Affin Bank shared a lot of similarities such as low ROE, car loans, no overlapping of branch locations and so on. If history is any guide, as long as some controlling block of a banking shares is available for grab whether it is in Hong Kong or Malaysia, those high end corporate raiders will join the party. If Quek Leng Chan was interested in EON Bank, there is no reason why he is not interested in Affin Bank. Tong Kooi Ong used to own a boutique bank so there is no reason he is not interested in Affin Bank. Last year Abang Jo was trying to bid for the licence of Digital Banking so at 2.4 he will be laughing all the way to the bank. EPF kept selling the shares but the share price kept going up so unlikely it was retailers in the market supporting the share price. Quek Leng Chan was trying to launch a hostile takeover of Bank of East Asia and it cannot be a coincidence that BEA is holding a big block of shares in Affin Bank. When we put all these small pieces of the puzzle, a big picture will emerge. So let's pray Tan Sri Quek Leng Chan is on the prowl again. Quek, founder of the Hong Leong Group of companies, will be stalking another prey — Affin Bank.

The proposed takeover of EONCap by HLBB has all the makings of a replay of the hostile takeover of Southern Bank Bhd (SBB) by the CIMB Group back in 2005.

industry observers say there have been indications that HLBB isn’t willing to pay anything above 1.3-1.5 times price-to-book value (PBV) for EONCap, based on its rather low return on equity (ROE) of 4.2% and return on assets of 0.3% in FY2008.

Thus, based on its 2008 book value (BV) of RM4.62, this works out to between RM6.15 and RM7.10 a share. EONCap’s projected BV for 2009 is RM5.05 — which means that the price that Quek may be willing to pay is anything between RM6.76 and RM7.50 a share.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/cover-story-quek-prowl

Read the above news line by line to understand that a banking licence is a valuable commodity and a machine to print money. The banker can collect deposits from the general public and give out loans and pocket the difference as his profit so it is never in my trading career that a banking business changes hands with such low valuation.

Those who are late to the party the night is still young and it is acceptable to take the calculated risk as the cut loss level can be set at 2.3-2.4 ringgit with limited downside if the takeover price by Abang Jo at 2.4 ringgit turns out to be true but if this is a fair deal the upside should be around 6-7 ringgit and my calculations based on intrinsic value and technical chart are pointing close to this level.

Personally I set my exit point at 2.15 ringgit with current level if I remember correctly my profit is around 50% but I am pretty confident there will be a hostile takeover by some other banking tycoon to frustrate the deal.

Affin Bank as long as trading above 2.15 the uptrend remains valid. Not sure what caused the deep pull back but technically the correction is within expectation.

HSR will only become financially viable in 70 years

Financial failures have been the case for most HSR projects since these started in Japan (1964) and Italy (1970) and it is difficult to see why our HSR system would perform otherwise, especially since the underlying passenger volume required to make it viable will not be present for the next 70 years.

source: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/427627

Beside regulatory approvals, LTAT will need to see the valuation report on the market value of Affin @ TRX and the true worth of AffinHwang Investment Bank and so on.

https://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/affin-bank-trx/35489

But retailers have to understand the fact that even Abang Jo is buying the block of shares from LTAT it doesn't always the case that the share price in short term will be traded up to that level as the business transaction is between Abang Jo and LTAT and nothing to do with the outstanding shares quoted in the open market. The logic why a takeover deal must be based on NTA is similar to Abang Jo buying out the Affin Bank new office located in TRX as the price of a property must be based on the value of the landed property regardless of whether it is generating income or not. However, the good news is that according to my spreadsheet formula Affin Bank is entering the anti-gravity zone and under zero gravity environment anything can fly.

LTAT is a public fund so they are answerable to their public members. They have to engage an investment bank to advise them whether the selling price is fair or not and most investment analysts are using a standard spreadsheet to plug in the same formula to derive their conclusion. Under normal condition a takeover deal will be based on NTA rather than PE to prevent hedge funds to do asset stripping.

Ranhill, above 0.87 is bullish, below 0.87 is bearish. Key dates: 22 April 2024, 17 Sept 2024, 14 April 2025.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/RANHILL/BmkXidOg-Time-Cycle-Analysis-Ranhill/

As of 2024-01-31, the Fair Value of Ranhill Utilities Bhd (RANHILL.KL) is 2.03 MYR. This value is based on the Peter Lynch's Fair Value formula. With the current market price of 1.13 MYR, the upside of Ranhill Utilities Bhd is 80%.

Peter Lynch's formula: Fair Value = Earnings Growth Rate x TTM EPS

source: https://valueinvesting.io/RANHILL.KL/valuation/fair-value

When institution investors or hedge funds are selling it doesn't mean they are bearish or trying to unload their shareholding. Sometime the selling are trying to test the buying strength of the market.

THE CRUX OF THE PRESENT CONTROVERSY IS WHICH IS BETTER, TO STUDY MATHS & SCIENCE IN BAHASA OR TO STUDY MATHS AND SCIENCE IN ENGLISH?

https://blog.limkitsiang.com/2009/07/17/which-is-better-learning-maths-and-science-in-bahasa-malaysia-or-in-english/

Abang Jo: "if there is no wind, the flag will not flap"

Affin Bank immediate support RM2.25, resistance RM2.69

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AFFIN/m4eIYk4h-Time-Cycle-Analysis/

This article was posted two weeks ago and repost here for easy reference:

Penang's Economic Shift: Concerns Regarding Talent and Emerging Opportunities

Evolving Landscape: Penang's established position as a key investment hub may be facing challenges due to a perceived talent gap in advanced engineering sectors, particularly in areas related to artificial intelligence chip development. This highlights the need for Malaysia to continuously refine its education system to nurture world-class talent capable of navigating complex technological advancements.

Emerging Competitors: Johor and Sarawak are attracting attention as potential alternative investment destinations due to their unique strengths. Johor benefits from its geographical proximity to Singapore, fostering a skilled workforce through knowledge transfer and spillover effects. Sarawak, abundant in renewable energy resources, offers cost-competitive manufacturing opportunities for energy-intensive industries. Investment Considerations: While specific stock recommendations should be treated with caution, UEMS (5148) and Affin Bank (5185) could be seen as potential proxies for exposure to Johor and Sarawak's respective economic prospects. However, thorough due diligence, including valuation analysis and consideration of broader market factors, is essential before making any investment decisions. Future Trends: The potential rise of digital banks presents another interesting avenue for exploration. Close monitoring of players like Boost Bank, backed by RHB and Axiata (6888), might be warranted, though investment decisions should be guided by comprehensive analysis of the digital banking landscape and individual company fundamentals.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/forum/forum-thread/909170208

KLCI above 1552 is bullish and below 1552 is bearish. The most likely trajectory is heading south. Following the discontinuation of UPSR and PT3 by the Ministry of Education, there is a discernible decline in the commitment of our students towards their academic responsibilities. The absence of these benchmarks has resulted in a lack of effective evaluation tools for assessing students' learning abilities. This concerning trend raises the prospect of a nation destined for failure if not appropriately addressed.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/FBMKLCI/gGMqXJe6-Time-Cycle-Analysis/

Affin Bank is the smallest bank in Malaysia so it is kind of interesting that it has attracted the attention of the Sarawak government. Sarawak is the most powerful state in Malaysia which is asking to increase their parliament seats to more than 30%. With this kind of political ambition it is unlikely that Sarawak will be pleased with only a five percent stake in Affin Banks.

The Malaysian economy exhibits a strong correlation with oil prices. According to technical analysis, the commodity has entered a structural bear market since 2014 which coincised with the peak in KLCI. To mitigate this impact, there is a need for a comprehensive overhaul of our education system, elevating our standing in global assessments like the PISA exam to cultivate students with internationally competitive skills and talents. Simultaneously, transforming our industries is imperative. Merely artificially increasing the minimum wage without concurrently generating substantial job opportunities may divert foreign investors to countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, which offer more competitive advantages.

Oil Super Chart:
https://postimg.cc/bZBWWBt6

KLCI Super Chart:
https://postimg.cc/0MYSKrRL