I would add to what dragon328 and Mabel shared yesterday ...
Per recent Annual Reports, YTL Power delivered the following PAT - RM2.032bil (FY23) and RM1.454bil (FY22), nearly 40% increase year-to-year. 1HFY24 so far RM1.710bil, and if 2HFY24 matches 1HFY24, then RM3.42bil amounts to yet a further 68% increase in PAT, year-to-year ! So the big question is - how would it be possible for the company to sustain a continuing sizable PAT annual growth of the same order into FY25 and FY26 ?? Very unlikely, you would say ..
But ... if we assume a modest RM25mil qtrly PAT increase from now to say mid-2026, projected annual FY26 PAT would reach RM4.05bil or so (a modest 18% growth over two years no doubt ) which, at a target price of say RM6 (addl 50% above current market share price range) equates to a projected PER of 12x; not a challenging PE ratio if you are prepared to wait for two years to gain a further RM2 (RM6 minus RM4) upside. And I have NOT even included any dividend payout benefit !.
A RM25mil PAT increase per qtr going forward is very modest - from RM850mil per qtr now to say RM1,050mil per qtr by mid-2026 - given the many many project developments just undertaken and into the future; dragon 328 and many others have alredy listed them over the past months at this investor blogsite.
So, if you are looking to invest in or holding YTL Power for a quick fix, then I suggest you move on elsewhere. However, if you can sustain your holdings for 1-2 years, along with the prospect of regular ongoing dividends, then this is for you.
Given the stream of new projects and investments, sustained further by contributions for the existing assets in Singapore, the UK, Malaysia and Indonesia, surely a quarterly inremental PAT growth of RM25mil is possible ..
Happy to share my PER projections via Member Services to the true believers... Happy investing

Latest 4-quarter rolling average P/E ratio only 9.4x, low and easily sustainable

https://www.power-technology.com/news/marubeni-engie-sell-stake-senoko-energy/

I don't know Mr Fox 😁

If someone has the Kenanga target price update, would appreciate if can share via the messenger chat ? Thanks

dragon328, I agree with your Wessex comments - valuation low. Benchmarked against related LSE-listed companies, the RCV multiple should be higher. What Wessex lacks is stock liquidity like these companies, so understandably cannot have comparable RCV multiple

dragon328, you are welcome ref CLSA. And thanks for your positive comments on PowerSeraya, esp its sustainable earnings for the next 2 maybe 3 years. Yes, tighter reserve margin will also encourage upward momentum on tariffs as a whole.

Apple888, noted you have checked your messenger chat. The Report indicates Data centre valuation at 87 sen/share

probability, Done ! Happy reading

xiaochen, pls check direct mailchat ..

xiaochen, Hi. Infortunately, I don't have the link; only a pdf version .. Ask your banker/remisier; maybe can assist

CLSA just initiated coverage. Target Price RM4-40

OTB, Earnings fundamentals already in place, and more PAT lines coming along in the next few quarters. PEFs and AUMs are already aware, thanks to their inhouse research. So depends on what you mean " .. something that the market is not aware .."

cgtan2020, thanks for sharing. Local retailers and funds have limited investing capacity. Foreign funds will always be the market movers, and for the right reasons. Their inhouse research analysts do a better job valuing YTL Power, and do not have conflicted objectives

Jonatan, Well stated above. Today's StarBiz pg 3 provides a useful update - " ... The strong momentum keeps going for YTL Power, .. "..analysts said its outlook remains bright ... valuations appear to be compelling .. "

EPS based on latest 4 quarters rolling-average total PAT is 33 sen. 2QFY24 PAT should be better than RM198.8m (per 2QFY23). If you agree say a conservative RM500m (preceeding 1QFY24 was RM847.9m), the revised EPS is 36.7 sen for the next 4Q rolling-average, and target price would be RM4.08 (at 11.13x) and up to RM5.65 (at 15.41x). How about we pick PE of 13x or RM4.77 ? By the way, Tenaga last closed at just under 20x PE

chon99, If you accept that foreign funds will keep pouring in, and they (and we) further accept Bloomberg's latest quote on FBMKLCI's average PE at 15.41x, then YTL Power's price could reach RM5.09 (prorating upwards to this average PE klsescreener's stated PE for Power of 11.13x at RM3.68 closed price).

cgtan2020, you analyses above should be further supported by improvements/increase in dividend payouts for FY2024 and FY2025, do dividend yield to market price remains sustainable when compared with FD rates.

xiaochen, good analogy - rolling snowball. We can already see the larger snowball down the slope, we just need to see the amount of snow along the way down 😉, better than the analysts

xiaochen, probability highlights the impact on nearterm cashflows when capital investments are significant - data centre devt with nvidia etc, WTE, prospect for new 600MW in Singapore, further M&A opportunities. But cap invs have little or no effect on eps in the meantime. And a study of Note 27 in the Annual Report points to adequate domestic credit lines (don't forget there's still cash in the kitty) to fund these upcoming developments.

If anything, debt-gearing MAY be challenged, but let's not forget more net operating cashflows to come in the next 2-3 years; see AR's Cashflow Statement..

So focus on big picture; management is set to deliver. No worries, mate !

.... and dragon328 has just offered some interesting insights regarding target-price setting ..

Analysts' recommendations on page 2 -
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/696034

2 of the 10 have already crossed the RM3 barrier; so who else is taking the big step up ?

Interesting to note today's high of RM2-80 surpassed 6 of the 10 analysts' recommended target prices. And the closing price is no more than 8.5x the 4Q-rolling average PER. So can we expect another round of rising TP recommendations ? As dragon328 rightly pointed out earlier -
" .... 40 sen EPS for FY2024 and FY2025 still has not included any contribution from the new AI data centre, WTE plant, any profit from Yes and digital bank, MLFF if materialised, Brabazon project in the UK, equity account of any profit from Ranhill and subsequent phases of data centres in Kulai and potential RE export to Singapore."

cgtan, RHB has started the ball rolling, raising target price recommendation from 2.72 to 2.95.. More will follow ..

To share ... FBMKLCI 30 stocks lately traded at an average PER of about 15x (14.96x to be exact), while klsescreener points to YTL Power's PER at 7.32x based on yesterday's closing price and the latest 4 quarters of PATAMI, at RM2.697bil (note also the averaged projected PATAMI for FY24 set by analysts covering YTL Power is RM2.801bil ).. If you accept this range of PATAMI for FY24, then when the counter is included in the 30 stock-Index (Dec 18 ?), one would expect a meaningful rise in its PER - maybe not up to 15x, but why not 9x-10x, or RM3 to RM3-30 ? Also to value in the delivery of the data center, improvement in the Wessex Water results, and now the collaboration with NVIDIA.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-talks-with-malaysias-ytl-data-center-deal-sources-2023-12-08/

PresidentLOL commented - " So NVidia may build a supercomputer AI site in SG, nothing yet about Malaysia. or this may link together. " ... Perhaps more than what meets the eye (?) ..

dragon328, Thank you for the YTL Growth Story.. While the near term prospects centre on PowerSeraya and Singapore, the tangible medium term outlook will depend on Wessex Water's revenue determination for 2025-30 and its impact on YTL Power's market capitalisation. Other investments and projects will also contribute to eventually achieving (easily!) an eps of 40 sen for FY2024

dragon328, Again, very insightful.. So maybe the IBs now need time to set up new AUM funds, rope in investors public and private; then ..

dragon328, I agree; YTLPI fundamentals speak loudly. Analysts with one or two exceptions are stalling ..

dragon328, Recall HSR Project's RFI process deadline postponed by two months; so some time in Jan 2024 I think

i3raymond, Actually q1FY21 - announced 26Nov20, q1FY22 - announced 25Nov21, q1FY23 - announced 24Nov22. All 3 announcement dates fall on Thursdays...

cktay, Thanks for your clarification re Seraya and Tuaspring. Indeed, Tuaspring has been the latest MW capacity addition to the stable of Singapore generation plants, so likely to be the most fuel-efficient. Seraya's generation units are Siemens plants, potentially more fuel-efficient than Senoko and Tuas Power's GE Power and Mitsubishi units. And don't forget, majority of Senoko's units are relatively older; so likely to be mothballed sooner.

So who stands to benefit from this ? If my analysis holds water; NEMS latest Market Watch Report suggests PowerSeraya and Tuasprings's combined market share of metered energy quantity has some catching up to do, relative to their combined market share of maximum generation capacity. And given the ever-tightening supply cushion that is coming, need we say more ?

Paul, Correct. Corp has 17% effective indirect interest, while Power has 30.6% effective interest, via YTL Communications (pg 209 of Power's Annual Report)..

Paul Tan, See pgs 281-282 of YTL Corporation Annual Report

And to add further to xiaochen's TP-sharing -
Most analysts have set their FY24E PAT targets at RM2b to RM2.1b, so within the FY23 actual PAT; very conservative and now find behind market price trends of late !
Some outliers - two < RM2b, and two > RM2.5b; the former two need to catch up !
The main pack may soon uplift their TPs, or wait till end Nov, when 1QFY24 results are announced; but I don't think they want to be caught out AGAIN, like what's happening now !
Furthermore, only ONE analyst has included the upcoming data centre as part of his SoP valuation, when targeted commissioning is by 1QC2024. Easily, another 10-15 sen per share.... So why the hesitation ?

Thanks, xiaochen. MBB and KAF have TPs below current, so expect them to uplift soon ...

Both Company's businesses in utilities & the like, suitably juxtaposed, will encourage significant synergistic benefits !

2023 Annual Report will be out early next week. More clues and deal flows, beyond what dragon328 has offered above, can be found in certain Notes to the Financial Statements ...

I concur with dragon328's remarks regarding the limited RE potential play, especially with the very recent developments on the M'sian side of the Causeway. Better for Seraya in the medium term to focus on consolidating its market share via its baseload units, secure in the knowledge that it has ample gas supply. And market share growth coupled with uptick in demand is looming, especially as another genco contemplates a reduction in its registered capacity as its 2004 units (some 9% of the total generation capacity in the system) become older and less efficient. Already, its market share of metered energy has been significantly lower than its share of registered gen cap, based on the latest NEMS Issue Paper 68.

Correct, OnTime. But keep on track. YTLP continues to build upon its 'concession-based' investment strategy - Wessex, Jawa Power, Seraya & Tuaspring, Comms & Yes (its day will come), REs like Solar & WTE, and associated businesses like data centres, EV charging stations and digital banking; so many many seedlings.

And many more if you know where to look 😁; so read the FY2023 Annual Report when issued in late Sep.
Setting the platform to grow its capital value base (= share price, lor) with further concessionaire-type investments, and projecting the upward trajectory dividend payout trend, encouraged on by YTL Corp 😉

Only KAF TP has come in below RM2 so far..

cgtan2020, As follows -
https://www.home.emcsg.com/about-the-market/governance/market-surveillance-and-compliance/publications/market-watch

myloh123, Correct ! If Keppel and SembCorp (and Meranti's 600MW) do not deliver on time, then Singapore has to seriously escalate importation from Malaysia in particular. So win-win for Seraya and YTLP, on both sides of the border 😁

Hello All ! NEMS Market Watch Report for 2nd Quarter 2023 issued yesterday. Adds support to Seraya's earnings growth - with increase in % market share of metered energy sold, and price of course. Replaces Senoko in rankings per market share %. Also, while Senoko's plant has many more MWs (I think ranked no.1 per % share of Max. gen cap, its gen units are older and have higher heat rates, so not as fuel-efficient as Seraya; so in coming quarters and given tight supply situation as highlighted by dragon328 above, who will benefit (?) ...

More from dragon 328! As usual many useful insights shared; thanks. Yes, ongoing technological advances vis incineration and beyond, and proper waste-handling and mgmt are key, with good examples in Singapore and the UK. The main challenge is how effective is the waste separation process at the beginning etc etc. Main driver is to secure a long-term contract (another concession play ?) - start with one, get it right, then more will follow.
As for the EI, rumours result from ignorance and mis-information, and a lack of understanding of enviro benefit vs cost

To add to Ravi Kumar's reference above -
this link was posted last month - https://voiceofasean.com/government/kdeb-waste-management-power-from-waste/

Markv572421, Not to worry... 4:45pm price closed at 1-69, then back up to 1-71 after 4:50pm, due to significant buying interest; and final close at 1-71.. Lots of profit-taking today, by the short-sighted and not-so-less-brave; but 4QFY23 results out late next week, so stay the course ...

dragon328, Thanks for the more rigorous analysis.. Yes, the continued tightening of MW supply is the corollary of a rising frequency of raised USEPs within the 48 periods each day in the coming quarters, leading to more clamour for the accelerated development of the 600MWs ...