@probability thanks for sharing about the 1 month hedging illustration. admitted i am still trying to understand it even though i did derivative modules in uni hahaha. mind me asking if you are in the financial industry?

well on the hedging thingy. i am just talking out loud. if they are doing one month hedging, but oil prices fluctuate massively during the month. and i guess they dont have big enough storage bunker to store 1 month of raw crude and 1 month of refined products. as a result of the massive oil prices fluctuation, their hedging would be far from a perfect hedge which they were hoping to achieve.
whats your thought bro.
thanks

https://www.balticshipping.com/vessel/imo/9256858

the russian oil tanker Linda has 60,000 gross tonnage.
Kuala Linggi International Port is in Melaka, close to Port Dickson.

60,000 tonnes x 7 barrel per tonne x 80 dollar per barrel x 4.2 = RM141m, close to the inventory written down of RM131m.

hopefully it is an one off event.

if excluding the inventory written down of RM131m, the PAT would be better off at RM178m. but again not sure how did the inventory written down come about...

news on the s-oil refinery fire and explosion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0oNYcwOZYE

crazy free falling :(

hopefully Heng Yuan will have a good quarterly result.

Thai refiner Star petroleum 165,000 bbl per day refining capacity
Q1 refining margin stood at US$8.46/bbl (+140% y-o-y, +42% q-o-q).
https://www.dbs.com.sg/treasures/aics/templatedata/article/recentdevelopment/data/en/DBSV/052022/SPRC_TB_05132022.xml

Korea refiner S-Oil 669,000 bbl per day refining capacity
“ts first quarter profit doubled on a year earlier while it expected regional refining margins in the second quarter to stay firm, supported by seasonal demand and easing pandemic restrictions.”
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/s-koreas-s-oil-sees-q2-refining-margins-staying-firm-seasonal-demand-2650216

U.S. refiner Marathon Petroleum 2,900,000 bbl per day refining capacity
Marathon said its refining and marketing margins jumped nearly 51% to $15.31 per barrel in the quarter ended March 31.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/marathon-petroleum-posts-profit-fuel-demand-nears-pre-covid-levels-2022-05-03/

wow wow wow. insti came in to sapu 300k shares @7.5 within secs....

can someone please clear the 300k shares roadblock at 7.5 :)

just to share my two cents.

Supermax will need to see ASP increase of about 100% to have PAT of above RM400m.
Is it plausible that it is able to achieve the 100% jump in ASP?

if you all recalled, in early July Supermax provided the management guidance on the spot rate ASP. Spot prices are about 110, 150 and 160 usd per 1000 pieces in the 3 months.

Supermax would just need to sell 80% gloves at contractd price plus some adjustment (say 22 usd per 1000 pieces) and 20% gloves at spot rate. This would give a blended ASP of about 45 usd per 1000 pieces, which be more than previous prices of about 20 usd per 1000 pieces.

Fingers crossed. best of luck all.

quick comparison of the trading P/E (annualized latest quarter results) of peers who have announced their results.

Company: Top Glove / Harta / Careplus / Riverstone
Share price: 28.1 / 19.1 / 4.3 / 14.5
Q PAT RM mil: 348 / 220 / 21 / 138 (riverstone 6M results)
Annualized PAT RM mil: 1392 / 880 / 84 / 276
Market Cap RM bil: 76.1 / 65.5 / 2.3 / 10.8
Trading P/E: 54.7 / 74.4 / 27.6 / 39.1

If Supermax coming quarter results are: 400 / 500
Annualized PAT RM mil: 1600 / 2000
Market Cap RM bil: 31.1
Trading P/E: 19.5 / 15.6
(much cheaper valuation compared to the other 4 peers ranging from 27.6 to 74.4)

alternatively if we assume P/E of 30x and 40x
If Supermax coming quarter results are: 400 / 500
Annualized PAT RM mil: 1600 / 2000
TPs for RM400m PAT: RM35 to RM47 per share
TPs for RM500m PAT: RM44 to RM58 per share

Fingers crossed guys..

sharing my two cents.

"The U.S. government has awarded Novavax $1.6 billion to cover testing, commercialization and manufacturing of a potential coronavirus vaccine in the United States, with the aim of delivering 100 million doses by January 2021."

A dose would cost say 16 dollar or about RM65.

Duopharma and Pharmaniaga received the mandates to bottle the vaccines from bulk volume. If we assume RM10 profit per bottle of vaccine and the whole of 30m population to receive the vaccine. There will be RM300m PAT. Split half for Duopharma and Pharmaniaga. Well there may be boosters required for the vaccine.

Key question is - how recurring would this income be? Is it one off in nature? or the market actually see it as recurring income.How much incremental valuation one would give to such vaccine bottling contracts? Food for thoughts....

sharing my two cents.

"The U.S. government has awarded Novavax $1.6 billion to cover testing, commercialization and manufacturing of a potential coronavirus vaccine in the United States, with the aim of delivering 100 million doses by January 2021."

A dose would cost say 16 dollar or about RM65.

Duopharma and Pharmaniaga received the mandates to bottle the vaccines from bulk volume. If we assume RM10 profit per bottle of vaccine and the whole of 30m population to receive the vaccine. There will be RM300m PAT. Split half for Duopharma and Pharmaniaga. Well there may be boosters required for the vaccine.

Key question is - how recurring would this income be? Is it one off in nature? or the market actually see it as recurring income.How much incremental valuation one would give to such vaccine bottling contracts? Food for thoughts....

Previous tariff rate is so much higher at 0.3495 0.3698 0.3398 Per kWh.
The tariff rate of 0.172 is pretty much halved.
Doubt the project cost has halved since then to have the same project economics.

one noob question. i notice Onion sell volume is less than the daily trading volume. For eg, yesterday Onion sold 25m shares, but trading volume was just 14m. Does that mean that their direct business transaction volume doesnt add to the daily trading volume?

@ KLCI King.
thanks for your insight on Cypark and pointed out the Sukuk info memo.
i was wondering at one point, what is cypark relationship with the other 2 LSS2 awarders and whether it is fair for cypark to raise debt on its own...

let me go through the IM and shall come back to you to seek your further guidance.

@freetospeak the 4x ASP in Brazil. is it the RRP in Brazil, or is it Supermax Brazil distribution arm's direct ASP?

think Penta example is different in this context. Penta shares tumbled when it was excluded from Shariah compliant list. whereas for Supermax, it has been shariah compliant but this time round is the inclusion into FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index. Recent inclusion and exclusion of counters have not resulted in much share price movement.

@dalpinia For syariah approval, the classic example would be Penta. When it was delisted from syariah, price down more than 10%, but this yr got the syariah approval again, so up 10%, more or less.

But for Supermx case, as it is hot cake now, it may up 15-20% on 22nd June
16/06/2020 12:39 PM

my two cents guys on next quarter results. Assuming utilization increases from 90% in Q3 to 95% in Q4, ASP (q-o-q) needs to go up by 25% to double its PAT, 50% to triple its PAT, or 75% to quadruple its PAT.

another guidance is from top glove management who said it will increase ASP by 15% in July and August RESPECTIVELY. fingers crossed.

managing everyone expectation but of cos the higher the better :)

Thanks bro. It may be conservative in terms of the ASP, but I couldn't be sure about the very optimistic ASP the analyst been reporting in recent reports with up to 3 times its previous selling price (75 dollar from 25 dollar or so). Sanity checks on various foreign market places indicate higher ASP, but not consistently as high as the 3 times cited by say CIMB CGS analyst report. Rightly or wrongly, I am thinking the 75 dollar per 1000 pieces ASP could apply to just selective sales channel but not across the board.

Therefore taking a conservative approach to keep updating the TP as we get more guidance/visibility from result announcement etc. )

my two cents. there will not be drastic impact on supermax share price once it is added to FBM Hijrah Shariah Index. Did a quick check on counters added on December 2019 (Airasia, Dialog and Kossan). not much movement on 23 December or so..

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ftse-russell-bursa-say-no-changes-klci-constituents

have share some thoughts and analysis to faciliate some discussions :)

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/mytwocents/2020-06-12-story-h1508758088-My_two_cents_on_Supermax.jsp