There must be a series of positive news flow before MIECO can really take off in a meaningful way. So far, there were only sporadic short-lived rallies in the past one or two years. But not to worry, be patient if you have bought MIECO in the range of 30 to 40 sen. I don't believe anyone in this group will lose any money! Just remember the net asset value of RM1.54; even if MIECO is going for fire sale at 50%, it could easily fetch 80 sen.

After a long spell of correction, MIECO seems to be making a come back this morning. Price moves up by 6 sen or 16% to touch high of 42.5 sen per share. Volume spikes up to 2.5 million shares.

I have written about the NAB of MIECO at RM1.54 per share and the possibility of BRDB disposing their 56% stake. The only thing I do not know is the timing of disposal and how close the disposal price would be to the NAB.

At current price of around 40 sen per share, I don't think an investor or punter has anything to lose but more likely something to gain.

Read my previous postings of this forum. It is quite a long story to tell. In short, earning is currently not the main concern but the valuable assets of the company. Much patience is required to realize the value of the assets. Again refer to my earlier postings for the reasoning.

MIECO has bounced back from 42.5 sen to hit intra-day high of 46.5 sen but closed at 45.5 sen today. Investors must take note that the volume is expanding steadily to 700,000 shares today and buyer's rate is at 80%. This simply means people are snapping up whatever shares available but they are not chasing the price. Another words, a group of investors are accumulating MIECO shares!

If this scenario continues for one or two more months, with price holding well and volume keeps rising, all the shares of weak, uncertain or uninformed shareholders will be taken up. I think by then, MIECO is going take off in quite an interesting way.

It is reported that Aeon Malaysia will not take over Carrefour but instead, the parent company Aeon Japan will operate the acquired hypermarket chain and rename it as Aeon Big. This is bad news for Aeon Malaysia because Aeon Big will to some extent cannibalize Aeon Malaysia. That is why price of Aeon Malaysia continues to fall.

However, the news of separate operator for the new chain remain good news for Aeon Credit.Regardless of who operates the new chain, Aeon Big is a sister company of Aeon Credit and there will vast opportunity for expansion in consumer financing. That is why price of Aeon Credit keeps rising, up by 56 sen to hit RM12.90 today.

It is confirmed that Aeon Japan is buying 26 hypermarkets of Carrefour Malaysia for 250 million Euro (about RM1 billion). When the news was published today, share price of Aeon came down 20 sen to RM12.28 but Aeon Credit moved up 38 sen to RM12.34 at closing.

The reason is very simple: in the short to medium term, Aeon Credit will benefit more than Aeon. Below is the explanation:

a) Carrefour Malaysia is a losing money concern. It would take Aeon probably a few years to turn it around. At the same time, Aeon might have to borrow money to fund the purchase. Interest incurred would eat into the current profit of Aeon.

b) Aeon Credit can move in and capitalised on the consumer financing of Carrefour customers. Aeon Credit will also benefit by managing loyalty cards of Carrefour members. The beauty of the situation is that Aeon Credit can make profits without having to spend much additional cost.

As expected, MIECO took a breather and corrected itself 10% down from 47.5 sen to as low as 42.5 sen. Those who are brave might want to re-position themselves for the next leg of movement. Of course, nothing is certain in the stock market; every investor or punter makes intelligent guesses and takes calculated risks.

BRDB, the parent company of MIECO is delisted as of today. More attention will now be directed at MIECO which is the only listed vehicle of the ultimate controlling shareholder, Moiz and family. There are several options he can do with MIECO as mentioned previously.

One of the options is to sell the assets and retain the listing status of MIECO. As soon as they have revamped and consolidate all the operations of BRDB, MIECO could be the flagship comapany to house new assets.

These are passing thoughts only. Please, readers are advised to do your own thinking and projection. By the way, MIECO has gone up as much as 30% since it bottomed out at 36.5 sen to hit 47.5 sen today. It is time for the counter take a breather

It has been reported that Aeon of Japan will buy over the 23 stores of Carrefour Hyper Market of Malaysia at USD250 million. The deal may be completed as soon as next week as reported by Star today.

While Aeon and Aeon Credit are not directly related, they are nevertheless sister companies with a common parent company Japan Aeon. Acquisition of Carrefour chain will open up more consumer financing business for Aeon Credit. In addition, Aeon Credit will benefit from the management of loyalty cards for members of newly acquired outlets.

This new acquisition of the Carrefour chain may be the single most important catalyst that will push share price of Aeon Credit beyond the RM12 mark in the near future.

Lafarge broke through the RM10 barrier yesterday,but the victory was short-lived. The share price fell back to under RM10 level this morning again. It would take more than speculative interest for the counter to push through and maintain above the RM10 level.

One other factor that may positively influence Lafarge performance is Iskandar development in Johor. With Singaporean investors flocking to the region to develop industrial, commercial and educational properties, the demand for cement will inadvertently increase. Iskandar Region is a massive development corridor; when constructions are in full swing, lots and lots of cement will be required. Perhaps, this is one factor that will provide the catalyst needed to propel Lafarge beyond the RM10 mark.

MIECO continues to show signs life today, moving up 3 sen to closed at 44.5 sen. Volume has picked up quite a bit too, hitting 978,800 units traded. The parent company BRDB will be delisted in a few days time, on 29 Oct 2012.

With the privatization of BRDB wrapped up, it might be time for MIECO to show some actions. Keep MIECO on your radar. If price continues to inch up and volume continues to expand, be ready for some interesting moves.

As mentioned in previous postings, there would be lots of bull traps on the run up to the release of 4Q results. Those new bulls who rushed into the market in the last few days to snap up JCY at 70+ sen are trapped, as share price retreated. It is better to wait for the 4Q results so that investors can have a clearer picture of the HDD industry in the future.

MIECO is showing some signs of life today, kicking up 3 sen and a transacted volume of 281,000 units. Not too bad for a sleepy counter. There is nothing to be excited about MIECO for now, unless, unless the price and volume continue its incremental trend.

For a MIECO rally to be confirmed, the share price needs to breach the 50 sen barrier with accompanying high volumes, say more than a few million shares a day.

It was a fantastic week for Aeon Credit. The share price shot up from RM10+ to smashed through the RM11 barrier, closing the week at RM11.40 per share. Some light selling by Aberdeen, a substantial institutional shareholder was noted. All the shares available were mopped up by a stream retail buyers.

Selling by Aberdeen does not mean Aeon Credit is over-priced. They have their own reasons: may be they are switching counters or may be they need to raise cash to meet redemption by their unit holders. As it is, Aeon Credit still has a lot of steam.

The ultimate controlling shareholder of MIECO is busy consolidating his prized acquisition of BRDB, which has property assets worth a couple of billions. As soon as he puts the big house in order, he would think about what to do with the smaller house. Hence, playing MIECO is a game patience. But the early birds will catch the worm.

Lafarge has come to the great wall of RM10 apiece. It touched and bounced back, several times. For Lafarge to punch through this great wall, it requires very very bullish factors. One of the following could do the job: announcement of big capital repayment or exceptionally good 3Q results to be released end of November. These are all uncertain and unknown factors. Sit back and watch if anything would happen.

The technical chart of JCY spells big troubles ahead. Both 20MA and 50MA lines cut across 200MA line deeply southwards. These are what chartists term "dead crosses". They are harbingers of disasters in the near term. Watch out for the 4Q results which may be coming any time next month. There could be shocking news.

The price of MIECO remains in the doldrums and the volume in the pathetic state. But as soon as you see price spiking and volume ballooning, get ready for some excitement.

Another good day for Lafarge, climbing 40 sen to closed at RM9.80 per share. Incidentally, Maybank IB recently has a write up on Lafarge, painting a rosy picture for the next few months. Maybank has a target price of RM10.10 for Lafarge. They opine that there is possibility of Lafarge to distribute capital repayment of 58 sen in addition to 38 sen of annual dividend. The decision could be made by the Board of Lafarge as soon as November 2012, according to the report.

This is just an analysis and opinion of the Maybank IB. The probability is there but please take it with a pinch of salt.

Last week saw the spectacular rise of Lafarge from RM9 to the high of RM10. However, the share price retreated to RM9.40 at the close of the week. Judging from today's recovery to RM9.60 with strong volume (at 3.05), it appears that appreciation of Lafarge share price is more than just a flash in the pan. There was a single cross trade deal of 500,000 shares at RM9.59 early in the afternoon session.

We do not know exactly the reasons behind the recent price rise of Lafarge. It could be any of the following factors: tight cement supply, increasing cement demand, foreign fund buy, potential high dividend payout and capital repayment or even possibility of privatization. Really, nobody knows. As long as the momentum continues, there is money to be made. Happy trading!

Recent article in BT reported that Aeon Credit Service is seeking acquisitions in the financial services industry to diversify its business.

"The company wants to further expand beyond consumer finance to tap rising demand from smaller companies and for used-car loans," Managing Director Yasuhiro Kasai said in an interview in Kuala Lumpur on 6/10/2012.

Aeon Credit Malaysia will make purchases that “help us grow faster,” Kasai said. “We go for the middle-sized or bigger companies because they have more talented people and much bigger customer base.”

Writer's comment: Reputable company like Aeon Credit does not simply make press statements. When they do, they mean it and they will do it. New acquisitions will complement the existing organic growth and accelerate the earning growth.

Recently Warisan launched the new line of trucks- prime mover, dump truck & cement mixer, in Bintulu, Sarawak. Within a short period of time, the company sold 50 units of various types of trucks (Business Time 5/10/2012). Bintulu is the location of SCORE - a huge industrial and infrastructural development of Sarawak, which may take more than a decade to complete. The company aims to capture 20% of the truck market share in Sarawak and 8% of national market.

As the China truck business was only launched within the last two years, meaningful profits will only roll in within next few years. Because the capital base of Warisan is only 67.2 million shares, the earning growth can be quite explosive when the sale of trucks picks up over time. Be on the lookout for BISON and AUMAN trucks on the road. When these brands are noticeable on the roads or construction sites, Warisan share price would have soared.

As I look through all the information related to Lafarge, there is one aspect I have not mentioned - quarry and ready-mixed concrete. Quarry operation provides aggregates of various sizes for purposes of concrete mixing and road construction. This division has not been contributing much to the bottom line of Lafarge.

However, with the infrastructural construction boom which will last through 2016 (CIDB source), ready-mixed concrete can be a new money spinner for Lafarge. Lafarge ready-mixed concrete is reputed for its high quality and reliability which will attract large and reputable projects.

Recently, Lafarge provided a record-breaking 30-hour non-stop pouring of concrete for the foundation of CIMB Tower in KL Sentral. Currently, Lafarge is the sole supplier of ready-mixed concrete for the Sepang LCCT project. The contract is to supply 600,000 M3 of concrete. This is equivalent to 75,000 truck loads of concrete (8 M3 per truck). Lafarge has 30 concrete batching plants throughout the country and they will be kept busy for quite a few years.

The price movement of Lafarge this morning defies its fundamentals and even surprises technical chartists. It shot up 60 sen to touch RM10 this morning. I have studied this company for many years and the price movements for the last few days throw my thinking off balance. The rapid rise of Lafarge price is unusual and beyond fundamental and technical analysis. Looks like something significant is brewing.

Does anyone know anything this forum does not cover? Please share your view.

The persistent sell down of JCY is a cause of concern. Initially, a lot of people blamed Investment Banks for the slide. They say that the price was pushed down in order to protect IBs from big pay-outs to call warrant holders.

I think the slump in JCY price is more serious than that. All the exercise prices of CWs are above RM1 and hence share price of JCY below RM1 poses no threat to the IBs. But JCY is still sliding and big timers are still selling. The only beneficiaries of the current situation are put warrant holders.

What do all these scenarios tell the market? I think the simple answer is: there is probably a fundamental change in the HDD business and financial figures. To be sure of the matter, watch out for the 4Q results and company explanations before you take the next course of actions.

Wow! It was quite a spectacular trading day for Lafarge. As soon as Lafarge broke through the RM9 barrier, people were scrambling to snap up shares, particularly in the morning and late afternoon. The share price was pushed up to an all time high of RM9.41 per share.

Well, I do not know of any specific reasons for the sterling performance apart from those which were shared in this forum. If there is any information which is known to insiders, it would surface in due time. As it is, I think the price is chased up as a result of continuous news flow of MRT contract awards.

You see, as soon as a contractor receives a job of say a few hundred million Ringgit, he needs to think about sourcing of building materials, such as steel and cement. As mentioned before, at the height of construction boom (yet to come), there would be a mad rush for cement.

The parent company of MIECO, BRDB has been suspended pending delisting with effect from today. As of the last filing, The owner controls more than 92% of BRDB. There are 3 possible ways BRDB can restructure MIECO:

1) Sell the entire stake of 56% in MIECO to raise cash;
2) Sell all the assets of chipboard manufacturing to raise cash but keep the listing status of MIECO for other business;
3) Issue new shares for private placement to potential investors.

Whichever way of the above method is implemented, the price of MIECO has to be substantially above the current price of 38 sen

Bingo! Lafarge has just broken through RM9 barrier touching RM9.02 per share at the time of writing. I am not a contractor or cement dealer so I don't have the actual feel of cement demand on the ground.

I would appreciate if some readers who have direct contact with cement dealings or first hand knowledge in the construction industry to give some feed back on the situation. That will benefit members of this forum.

Yesterday, JCY surged from 77 sen to closed at 81.5 sen with heavy volume. Today it dropped 2.5 sen to 79 sen. This is what we call "dead cat bounce". Upward price movement of JCY would need to be sustained for a couple of weeks before the uptrend can be confirmed. Until then, there would be lots of bull traps along the way.

There was no surprises of infrastructural spending in the 2013 budget. Most people think that present mega projects such as MRT, TRX, PNB Tower, Oil & Gas projects and other developments are more than sufficient to sustain the current construction industry at least for the next few years. Most of these projects have just been launched and are about to go into full swing development. Hence the demand pressure for cement is yet to be felt. The mad rush for cement would probably occur sometime next year onward. Cemex, one of the leader in providing ready-mixed concrete in Malaysia is optimistic of the growth for cement.

Share price of Lafarge is being maintained at pre-budget closed of RM8.90 apiece. It is flirting with the all-important resistance of RM9 per share. In order for Lafarge to pierce through this barrier, there must be substantial real demand for cement in the next few months.

Consumer sector will benefit from the recent budget. Firstly, there is an 1 1/2 month bonus for all civil servant. Secondly, there will be much tax savings for the middle income group which may range from RM400 to RM1,000 due to reduction in tax rates. All this excess money will find its way into consumer market.

Aeon Credit, being the largest consumer-good financier will definitely benefit from the excess money sloshing around in the consumer market.

The financial year of JCY closed on 30 Sept 2012. Looking at the persistent selling trend of JCY this morning, it does not seem that 4Q result is going to stir any excitement. There is gut feeling 4Q result may bring much disappointment.

True, the cumulative earning up to 3Q amounts to 21 sen, which is impressive from any view point. But the 4Q result will set the pace for the ensuing periods. Just look at the phenomenal growth of tablets and smart phones and you could guess how this new consumption shift would affect sales of desk-top PCs which use HDD.

Again, one must remember, investors buy into future earnings, not the past and not even the present.

The Pakistani major shareholder has obtained more 90% of the BRDB shares and BRDB will be suspended followed by delisting after 4 Oct 2012. BRDB still controls MIECO through its 56% stake. At NAB of RM1.54, the MIECO stake is worth RM181 milion, which is very small compared with the total value of BRDB at RM1.9 billion.

The major shareholder is very focused on property development of BRDB and there is high possibility they would hive off the MIECO stake. Objectively, how much is MIECO shares worth in the event of disposal, taking into consideration the pathetic state of the chipboard industry?

Well, the NAB is RM1.54 apiece. Let's say they sell off the stake at 50% discount, which will work out to 77 sen per share. The current price of MIECO is 38 sen. This means the potential gain is 100% in the event of MGO to minority shareholder.

These are arm chair calculations and we do not know for certainty whether it will happen and when it will happen. However, for the MIECO price of 38 sen per share, the downside risk is very very limited.

There are some goodies in the budget store for Warisan. Tour operators which bring in more than 750 foreign tourists or 1500 local tourists will enjoy tax holiday for 3 years.

Warisan has a subsidiary tour company named May Flower which operates both inbound and outbound tours. May Flower could be the largest tour operator in Malaysia with annual gross profit of closed to 50 million RM.

There would be substantial savings in terms of tax exemption for the next three years, which in turn would be translated into higher earnings.

There were waves of selling beginning from from Sept 11 - the ex-BI date. Many of those who received bonus shares cashed out in the last three weeks. It is of course understandable as the market was soft during that period of time - a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. The share price was pushed down close to RM10 at the lowest ebb.

I think the selling has dried up and the share price rebounded strongly recording a close of RM10.52 last Friday. Most likely, Aeon Credit is on the path to the north again with RM11 within its striking range. The 16 sen single tier dividend will go ex on 2 OCT.

By this evening, the 2013 budget will be tabled. Lafarge has shot up 29 sen to close the morning at RM8.89 apiece. The market is probably anticipating more infrastructural spending which would exert pressure on the demand of cement. Is the market right in its assessment of the budget? Let's sit back and watch the presentation of the budget. If the market is wrong, price of Lafarge will fall on Monday. If the market is right, price of Lafarge may be sustained or inch up further.

A technical chart is not a foolproof method to predict future price movements. However, it does give us a glimpse of what is likely to come in the near future. The current price of 0.78 is way below 20, 50 and 200 SMA line, indicating very negative events in the coming months. Whist small traders are buying in hope of technical rebound, big timers are throwing in the magnitude of few hundred thousand shares at one go. It would take extraordinary happenings such as last years' flood to turn the downtrend around, but the probability is 1 in 70.

In the midst of market doom and gloom this morning, Lafarge holds on tenaciously at RM8.76 apiece, unchanged from last week's close. Such phenomena is termed resilience. On top of that, two cross single trades took place with 200,000 and 372,900 shares changed hands respectively. The stock price reflects the bullishness of construction sector in the near future.

Pure technical chartist believes that the chart of a stock tells the whole story. The views of insiders and outsiders are all represented in the chart itself. If this theory is correct, JCY chart is telling the market that the near-future financial performance is not going to be rosy.

Some people are hoping that the current flood situation in Thailand will deteriorate and history will replay: HDD factories in Thailand will be destroyed except that of JCY. They say that this is the only hope JCY can reverse the share price down trend.

I think the chances of replaying that history are very very slim. It is better to look at the hard facts of the industry: ASP of HDD is decreasing and competition from SSD is growing every day.

The takeover offer of BRDB has become unconditional with total share acceptance amount to 61.25% (including offeror's interest). This means the takeover is confirmed even if the remaining 38.75 shareholders reject the offer.

what has this to do with MIECO? This means the Pakistani is in full control of BRDB which in turn controls MIECO. He will be able to make a firm decision concerning the disposal or capital restructuring of MIECO. Watch out for new corporate developments of MIECO next few months.

Aeon Credit has just declared the 2Q results: 50.15 sen per share which is an increase of 41% over last year's earning. At the same time, the company has also declared an interim dividend of 16 sen single tier for the enlarged capital base after BI. No wonder the Chairman bought shares from the open market on 13 Sept 2012.

The chairman of Aeon Credit bought a total of 62,180 shares on 13 Sept, 2 days after ex-BI. When an insider buys shares, it is a good sign because he has privileged information of good things happening. Of course, he has to declare his dealings and that is how we can interpret the future movement of share price.

The privatization of BRDB is confirmed and should be completed in the next few months. This brings the possibility of MIECO sale nearer to fruition. Mieco is still losing money but as pointed out before, the asset is worth quite a lot of money. Those who are brave might want to take some calculated risk. Of course, nothing is absolutely certain in the stock market but I think MIECO is worth a look at 39 sen apiece.

Lafarge moved up 18 sen to close the day at RM8.78 per share with a volume of more than 2 million shares. Examining the trade details, looks like big timers are buying. Many deals were in the multiple of ten thousand and there was a single deal of 121,900 in the afternoon.

A substantial shareholder, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. ("MUFG") has just bought 1,851,600 Aeon Credit shares on 11/09/2012. MUFG now owns a total of 11,109,600 or 9.258%. They have been buying Aeon Credit for the last few years when the price was as low as below RM3 and the current purchase was struck at a price above RM10 per share. It is worth noting the confidence of MUFG shown in Aeon Credit.

Lafarge goes ex-dividend today. It is interesting to note that share price went up as high as RM8.79 this morning, a hefty gain of 37 sen from the reference price of RM8.42 per share. what's going on? Normally price would dip upon ex-d.

Without the encumbrance of dividend, Lafarge is free to chart a new uptrend. The global economy is slowing including that of Malaysia but the country is embarking on multi-billion mega infrastructure projects; MRT, TRX, high-speed train, oil & gas storage etc. The total spending runs into more than 100 billion RM. It does not matter at all which construction company gets the project; all of them need cement for their construction works. Hence the sure winners are the material suppliers, especially cement manufacturers.

Things may get even hotter as more project works are awarded. Keep your eyes on the news flow of new project launching and keep track of the cement prices.

Aeon Credit dropped 20 sen to closed at RM10.72 per share. This could be due to the scheduled listing of 24 million new shares resulting from the recent BI on Friday. Although Aeon Credit is a blue chip now with good prospect of long term growth, some shareholders may decide to take profit, which is very normal. Any dip in the share price of this counter is an opportunity to buy. Watch out for the soon-to-be-released 2Q results and dividend payment! anytime after Sept 20.

It is true that the liquidity of this counter is quite low. First, the capital base is small, only 67.2 million shares. Secondly, most of the shares are tightly held by the major shareholder and they keep buying in. Thirdly, potential of this company is yet to be fully realized and retail investors are not interested.

It is not that difficult to buy say 50,000 shares if you are prepared to pay market price of RM2.60 to RM2.80 per share. However, it is unlikely you can sell them for profit at this moment due to lack of retail interest.

This counter is for medium to long term investment. Certainly, it is not meant for trading or short term purpose.

Aeon Credit closed at RM10.90 today, up 26 sen from the ex-BI price of RM10.64 per share. Not spectacular but substantial gain, considering the fact that the market is in a deep correction mode for the last few days, and that most stocks are swimming in the sea of red ink. The next advance would probably come in the next few weeks when the 2Q result is released together with announcement of a dividend. By then, we should see the share price cruising past RM11 mark effortlessly.

Aeon Credit closed today at 12.78 and tomorrow the counter goes ex-BI. Based on this price, the theoretical ex-BI is RM10.65 per share. The price may fluctuate between RM10 to RM11 tomorrow onward. However, with the strong earning growth of the company, it is probable that the share price would hit RM12 again before the end of 2013.