You.cant make 9 women pregnant at the same time and expect to have a baby in one month. You just need to be patient.and wait.

It takes me more than 2 weeks.after goimg through DK 66 write ups to decide to invest in JAKS. I look at his DCF method ""reversed engineered "" method of.usimg.8 years return etc.I am convinced of his numbers after I have the priveledge of comparing with mfcb since I had also invested in.mfcb much earlier. We need to ne patient to wait.for about.9 months to see the. reward. As Earren Buffet quote ,to make a baby, you need at least 9 months

overall market is bad . Trump.had finally signed the Act Interfering with HK performance on human rights and democracy. This act had huge implication for Hongkong.exports .Hang Seng eas down more than 2 % dragging thw whole world markets. At one pt, klse down 20pts tiday.
China will.retaliate

steady, mfcb power plant is hydroelectric wheareas Jaks is coal fired. The cost of generating per watt is different . Hydro fuel is water which is free whereas coal has cost.. Ithink it is mosr costly to generate pet.watt for coal fired generator than hydro

To stay invested in Stock Market, you must have strong conviction on the fundamentals after you have study indepth about a particular stock. Stay on and be greedy when many are fearful to quote Warren Buffet famous saying. As.an example, when Dayang Q1 result was out in late May this year , it was a better yoy and bad qoq as expected. all the 4 IBs downgraded it when it was the.best Q 1 since 2016. It was a known.fact that Q 1 was moonsoon qtr . The.share prices nose dive from 1.30 to less than.90 s. I and otb.team.sapu kaw kaw and wait.for the expected better Q2 and Q3 results premised on the 3.0 billion orderbook. When Q2 result.was out which.is better yoy and.qoq, all the IBs upgraded tgt prices by 50% to more than 1.20. After one month in.Sept, the IB upgraded the tgt prices to more than 1.65. Then in Oct , the IBs upgraded tgt prices again.to 2.00. When Q3 result was out upgraded again to more than 2.30 。Within a period of 5 months the 4 IBs change the tgt prices from. 80s to 2.30..Whew. pity those who threw dayang at below 1.00. .I sold all my.dayang shares when it reached more than 2.00..Dont make the same mistake in JAKS.

today manage to.top up another 50k at 1.15

Thanks lcwin.and edkfc for the information. With only 50 % utilization of its total 260 MW capacity, mfcb.management already projected an annual.sales of US 120 million electricity and an estimated US $ 60 to 70million profit. That means JAKs coal.fired power station.can effectively generate 2 x 1.7 or 3.4 x MegawattHr of elevtricity per as Don.Dahong. power plant assumimg the coal fired plant can run 100 %
capacity. Even if it run at 80%, it is still.2.72x .

Although mfcb Power plant is more cost effective compared with JAKS power plant operated using coal,.the Mekong river do have seasonal high and low.water.volume. Coal.is cheap.and abundant .In fact coal power plant is the 2nd most cost effective .JAKS has an option to own 40% of the power plant which effectively.equate to 480 MW . This is 2.3 x of mfcb owned 208 MW.

Yesterday I did make a comment at 3.52pm that I found a big difference between.how Public.Invest wrote about mfcb.vs jaks. Public Invest speak.a lot about Don.Sahong power plant potential.and even provided estimates of superb earning of 200 m to 260m annually of the 260 MW power plant but silent on.JAKS potential earning.on its Vietnam power plant. i thought Public Invest may not have sufficient information from Jaks management. Although JAKS owned only 30% of the 1200MW power plant , effectively.it own 360 MW compared with MFCB s 80% owning 208MW . That means JAKS own an equivalent of 1.7x of MFCB. power plant in terms of megawattage. Public.Invest value MFCB at 4.72 tgt price way back in JAN.2019 this year providing the annual earning.estimate when its completion.date is one year away. Logically, by now public invest should provide similar estimate for JAKS power plant potential but they are silent on its last report. Do not know why.

I tried to top up at 1.10, then 1.14 and 1.160 but failed to get any. The reversal from1.10 to 1.17 is just too fast.

OTB, thank you. Hopefully , Andy will.reduce JRB.property exposure gradually . Without this liability plus the cash from the disposal, JRB earnings.will be enhanced. There could be a one off impairment loss. Short term.one off pain is better than long term.pain.

yes. the property development business was a drag and will.continuev to be a liability to JRB . It will be good if they can sell it off and focus on.power generation

Nikmon, the last 3 qtrs nett profit had already factored in the losses.due to the property development business including the lower sales plus delays.

The Vietnam power plant was 82 % completed based on Public invest Article. It is a fair assumption that the balance 18 % will be completed in Q4 2019 and Q1 2020 before commencing commercial opertion in April 2020. The current 4 qtrs rolling eps is about 13s which give Jaks a PE of 10.36 at today's closing price of 1.26. Assuming Q4 also has the same 9% billing as Q3 and a similar eps of 4.12 s, then the rolling 4 quarter eps will be about 20 s . This will be a PE of only 6.3 at today price . Today, mfcb PE is about 20 . As I mentioned earlier , Jaks value is on the 25 years of selling electricity which give a much higher projected profit than the current few qtrs . For those who like to look at short term , even the current PE and next qtr PE will be attractive at today price .

I think once public.invest obtain more information from the horse mouth which.is jaks management .on their next coverage,.jaks will do better in the market.

Regarding public.invest article, I do notice a big.difference between their coverage on mfcb vs jaks. They mentioned a lot about mfcb potential on Don Dahong.power plant Even gave estimate on.yearly profit of 200 to 260m but silent on jaks Vietnam power plant potentual .Not sure if JAKS management do not want to give too much.information to public.invest.

Look at how mfcb prices move in.the last 6 months with respect to its last 30qtr profits from progress billings ,we can infer how JAKS prices should be moving . MFCB eps went down.from.8.48 s in Q1 ,5.59 s in Q2 and 3.66 s in the latest Q3 but its share prices went up from 3.50 to 4.80 within this 6 months as its power plant get nearer to completion. There is a lag of about 3 months between the.completion dates of HAI DOUNG.power plant vs DON.Sahong.power plant. I am making an inference that JAKs next 3 months pricing. trend should.follow the mfcb last 3 months trend provided there is no unforseen delay or other surprises. The values of both mfcb.and jaks depend very much on their respective 25 years contractual agreements in electricity sales from the power plants and not the profits from the progress billings .

He is enjoying natural beauty now.

probability, you should enjoy your wine too with your 100 % return on dayang

teoct, nice to hear from you too. It still remain vivid in my memory that when dayang prices went down south to less than 90 s , we still hold on to our belief that dayang is worth much more than.that. It was lonely then with few participation in the forum. I.had sold all my.dayang shares a month ago when it reach more than 2.00. I switch to mfcb warrant and jaks which has offered quite good return.within a month. With such good q3 result which is slightly above my expectation , I may buy back some next week. I still believe.dayang has great potential to reach higher in.view of its recent restructuring ,its good results plus potentual huge orderbook .Enjoy your champagne and wine this weekend.

wow. excellent and record revenue and profits. Lump sum revenue alone is already 197 million. Excellent free cash flow also. Nett.debt.rrduced signifucantly

The similiarity between MFCB and JAKS is that both have similar Malaysian businesses which do not make money in the last few qtrs. Mfcb fare better than JAKS in the sense that the mfcB malaysuan businesses did.not.lose money. I concur with otb that if JAKS malaysian property business dont lose big money , it will.follow the same up trend.as mfcb

The value of JAKS is on the 25 years of contract selling electricity to Vietnam . MFCB share prices has gone up 45% since June from 3.30 to 4.80 despite annoucing poorer Q2 and Q3 results than Q1. Both public invest and maybank upgraded mfcb tgt prices twice during.these periods because of near completion of the power plant. I believe JAKS prices will follow the same trend when its power plant getting.nearer and nearer to completion.

Thank you DK

DK 66, Your estimation of 7% is fair . Based on public invest report, Q2 completed 70% of the project compared with 67 % in Q1.It means that Q 2 completed 7 % of the total project but the Q 2 financial report stated that its revenue from the EPC was 226 millions. I understand that the total project is worth 1.87 billion. The 226 million revenue from EPC does not jive with 7%. Can you help to clarify? thanks

edkfc, fair assumption except the number of shares is 643 million instead of 587 million. Hence the eps is 7.5s instead of 8 s based on the assumed profit. The additional 10 % more shares could be due to private placement .

jo3laj4n , with 1 out of 10 right issue sold at 0.92,the average price of 10 lots at 1.97 plus 1 lot at 0.92 is ( 19.7+0.92)/11 is equal to
1.87.

enming22 , Hongkong is already ruined by thousands of students and youngsters who hide their face with masks to commit crimes . MRT stations were damaged , shops destroyed , traffic lights and street lights were destroyed . These are the peoples who has no respect for the rule of law . The six months of rioting has caused serious damage to Hongkong . Thousands has lost their jobs and more to come . Are you supporting these masked violent protesters to continue destroying Hongkong ? Today the murderer Chan Tong Ka is a free man because millions of Hongkongers oppose an amendment to extradite him to Taiwan , the place where he murdered his pregnant girlfriend . Chan is a free man now because the amendment was withdrawn due to mass protest by violent protesters . Please tell me who is actually not respecting the rule of law .

Amukutty, based on the few articles I read eps of the 30.to 40 % of the power plant profit is between 25 to 35sen. A PE of 10 should give a tgt price of 2.50 to 3.50.. JAKS has other property development business and also a legal dispute with STAR, eps could be higher or lower depends on how these business goes

OTB thank you. I like your 寧可天下人负我, 我不负天下人. With your excellent investment records, you are definitely a great sifus than me.

linjie,we knew about 5th turbine months ago. The 5th turbine will only be completed in 2023.Sam is asking eps in 2020. pls read his question properly first.

A big thank you to DK 66. Without your write ups , I would never had invested in JAKS.

I had been investing in mfcb and its warrants because of its big potential in its hydro power plants . I still hold on to its mother shares and warrants despite making a handsome returns when.its shares started rallying a few months ago when the project was 90 % completed. When DK 66 wrote a few articles about Jaks one to two months ago , I started to invest in JAKS too seeing a similar potentials as mfcb. I started buying at 0.82 and keep topping up till last Friday at 1.30. Hope more IBs will upgrade JAKS like what they did in mfcb.

linjie, i got my figure from public invest. This figure is their projected number

Sam , eps assumption.is 50 sen

The value of mfcb is the future earnings of selling electricity for 25 years starting from jan 2020 which is one and half month away only. Both Public Invest and Maybank upgraded tgt prices to 5.71 and 5.50 respectively . They also expect bumper earning in Q4 2019 from the balance 5 %
progress payment plus sale of 80 MW electricity and a one off saving of interest on the entite project cost

The value of mfcb is not on the progress payment revenue and profit from the construction of the power plant but the 25 years of profit from selling electricity.

MFCB is not new to management of power plants. It has managed two power plants before. One in China and the other one in Tawau malaysia. Besides ,its JV partner is also power plant expert. Experience count.

Sam, I have no knowledge about the companies you mentioned. At present , I put my investments in Jaks and mfcb of which their power plants are near completion.

I have been buying mfcb since a few years ago at 2.20 and buying.more and more in the middle of this year . I have never sold.a single.mfcb shares. It is worth waiting for the trees to bear fruits. Why sell the plantation when the trees grow so well and start to flower. We will enjoy the fruits in the next few months

power generation business is unlike other businesses which depends on supply and demand and big variations on product pricings and its costs. power generation business is a.contractual business with pricings and others stated unfront with contractual agreements. The risks are project delays and unexpected projects costs .Big Investors will not give high.PE during the early phases due to these risks. Once the project run.smoothly and near completion, higher.PE will be accorded. I am not surprised a PE of 14 will be accorded to mfcb once it started earning about 50 sen per share as projected in 2020. The 25 years contract is a solid 10 billion ringgit order book which is an envy of many.companies. These 10 billions future revenues are with good contractual margins.

projected eps for 2019,2020 and 2021 are 20.7 s, 48.9s and 50.2s respectively. Dividend yield projected are 31 s for both 2020and 2021. This give dividend yield of 6.8 % at today closing price of 4.56. Report from Nanyang quoting public invest analyst.

Public invest just upgrade the target price to rm 5.71 yesterday. Maybank last tgt price on 8 oct was 5.00

Don sahong is a.cash cow business with very good profit margin. Assuming a dividend payout of 30 sen per share and 4 % dividend yield, its share price will be 7.50. Malakoff dividend yield is 7.16 % which is very high . Malaff is paying all its profit as dividend while I am assuming mfcb pay only 50% of its profit of 60s. Mfcb need to use the profit to pay off its debt first.

just add another 25 % . The profit.is estimated to be 300 million assuming there is such demand.

public invest estimated a profit of 200 to 260m annually from Don.Sahong power plant. With the cuurent 435 million shares and some unconverted warrant, total number of mfcb shares is estimated to be about 500 million shares comes end April 2020.when the warrants mature. Assuming a 250 million profit during the matured period of fully.running the power plant,earning per share will be 50sen. A PE of 14 will give the tgt price of 7.00 .This estimate is based on 4 turbines. When the fifth turbine is operational,you can add another 25 %. PE of 14 is based on current PE of M alakoff which has numerous power plants.

rr88, you know dayang from the beginning of the year when the stock was trading below 1.00.Dayang falls under the category of Recovery stock and we should.expect it to rise rather than going down in medium term. Unfortunately you have been betting dayang to go down at every prices and even.it has reached rock bottom. Learn.from the mistake rather than keep repeating it. Otherwise you will become 过街老鼠which everyone will try to curse and beat . Not worth it.

Hongkies will die to protect their democracy ????? What democracy ??? The one Inherited by the British ??? Do you know Hongkong history ??? The violent protesters destroying public properties causing damages and inconveniences are not peaceful protests for democracy and freedom . They are just a bunch of hooligans .

Finally I sold all my dayang.shares which I bought at average price of 1.25.. Decided to bet on mfcb and its warrant a few months ago .

rr88, I knew penta 15 years ago .Penta was my test equipment supplier then . I bought penta when it was listed then and sold it within a few months making some money . Penta went through a tough time 10 years ago when their business went down . They have to sell one of their building to Benchmark to pay off their loans. The share price came down from more than Rm 1.50 to RM 0.15 at one point 10 years ago .It was not until 5 years ago penta business started to pick up again . The share price has gone up 50x if you buy 10 years ago during their lowest point. I started to buy again in 2016 but sold it after making 100 % . Today I kick the table when it continue to goes up . If I had not sold , I would have made 8 x today . This is life , who knows penta transform from a crow to
pheonix . sometimes luck do play a part.It is useless to be a Canon behind the horse as the Chinese saying goes . Most of the semicons has almost the same story . Inari , JHM, Vitrox, Globetronics etc. These industries are SCALABLE easily.