@fong7

7 years ago, FBM KLCI30 was 1,756. 7 years ago, i Capital’s NAV was RM3.00. Today, i Capital’s NAV is RM2.90. That is a 12% drawdown in FBM KLCI30 versus 3.3% drawdown in i Capital’s NAV. The resilience is also underpinned by RM1.90 net cash per share as at 29 Feb 2020 to capitalize on downturn opportunities while other funds entered the downturn fully invested.

Yes, I am a subscriber of his newsletter for four years already. However, I am not confident to say “I really quite familiar with TTB’s way of thinking” despite the four years of subscription as the market is really dynamic. In fact, I would be grateful if you can share your familiarity with us here instead. If you really think about it, I didn’t encourage you to subscribe to the newsletter for the sake of paying TTB even more (one volume cost only one Roti Telur for both internet & printed). I encouraged you to subscribe because you want answers to your questions.

For me, it’s simple. I read the newsletter, study the economic data & stylized facts provided and form my own conclusion and action plan. Likewise, I love the “Stock Selection” section as it helps me understand a variety of businesses before I form my own Buy & Sell calls. It worked for me. We may even end up sharing conversation about the prospects of different stocks next time!

@ahteck85 best call ever, am still holding despite the 21% jump. What about you? The write-up on Qantas Airways was good as well.
@idunwork https://www.icapital.biz/newsletter/subscription u can choose between the two packages. Each issue, if you choose online, is only the cost of 1 Roti Canai biasa. For both online and print access, each issue will cost 1 Roti Telur.

@fong7 you need to subscribe to icapital newsletter to understand if he will answer the same way as before. RM99 for internet version & hard copy. Half price for internet version only. It answers all the questions you have in you more effectively and accurately.

@ahteck85 right, now that you mentioned it. We wouldn't know what TTB did during the March - April market carnage. What are your thoughts? Time for us to go big on icap?

There are not many attractive opportunities in KLSE for big money fund managers anyway, and attractive companies are usually highly valued. Under such circumstances, a fund manager that builds cash reserves awaiting for valuation to normalize demonstrate the level of discipline he / she possesses. Managing big money that are largely the retirement savings of the middle and lower income population of Malaysia is not as easy as managing one's personal wealth ranging few hundred thousand Ringgit or in the low millions.

@firehawk so now I say, what is your basis of picking 23 Oct 2019 and 25 Mar 2020 when your comment was made on 8 May 2020? By the way, City of London owned 28,326,600 shares in iCap as at 31 Oct 2019. On 21 Apr 2020, City of London owned 28,621,100 shares in iCap. While I "think deeper the difference of holding cash and stock........", I hope this helps you.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement?keyword=&cat=SH%2CCHSH&sub_type=&company=5108&mkt=&alph=&sec=&subsec=&dt_ht=&dt_lt=#/?category=FA&company=7293&sub_category=all&alphabetical=All

@firehawk Your comment was made on 8 May 2020 and you cited icapital.biz Berhad's net asset value per share as at 25 March 2020.

The numbers alone tell you how robust ICAP is. KLCI30 fell 14.9% during 21 Feb 2020 - 20 Mar 2020. During the same period, ICAP NAV & share price only fell 15% and 16%. These are the returns for the same time period of a few KLCI30 counters that were long perceived to be resilient:

GENM: -37%
GENTING: -47%

AMBANK: -24%
PBBANK: -30%
CIMB: -37%

SIMEPLT: -17%
IOICORP: -20%
KLK: -21%
HAPSENG: -22%

PMETAL: -43%

Aunt uncle favorite Gentings are indeed like casinos. Excluding the government-supported Maybank, banks shed more market cap than ICAP. A telling sign the market was more confident about ICAP as a sound and stable financial institution than these banks? Plantation & edible oil, touted as all-time necessity by Calvin Tan Eng suddenly fell for more than ICAP also? Our newcomer PMETAL is not spared as well. i3 gamblers and PNB's favorite SAPURA ENERGY BERHAD down 71% during that time frame. This is despite the fact that all these counters were heavily supported by the likes of PNB, EPF and other government-linked entities while ICAP is supported only by prudent risk management, robust due diligence and strong support from shareholders that share the same value investing philosophy.

Based on the latest quarterly result filing, ICAP holds RM266.5 million in short-term deposits and RM21.08 million in bank balance, which translates to RM2.05 net cash per share. In other words, you can buy stakes in great companies like Padini, SAMEE or even Carlsberg + Tan Teng Boo's fund management expertise for free.

@jasonor and when the market starts to crash as icap gets bullish with plenty of cash to deploy, it can average down to the bottom or better still, buy at the bottom. Remember buy low, sell high? Unfortunately, most people now are incapable of averaging down / buying at the bottom just because they deployed all their cash at much higher prices. Time to read the newsletter again to learn what's truly on bargain?

Philip, which of the following Ctos report do you purchase for purposes you mentioned?

Sample:
https://businessreport.ctoscredit.com.my/oneoffreport/single-report?comp=TONG-LEE-TRADING-SDN-BHD-1085713X&_ga=2.262054669.1426025393.1582073721-326479210.1582073721

Did you buy Hartalega? Nestle? Press Metal? Stone Co? Visa? Tencent? Alibaba? Can I say you are incompetent because you never made money through these? Your logic. Using net cash to justify the value in a "disruptive" company? If the company is really disruptive, it would be draining the cash holdings anyway to disrupt via becoming the pioneer in its operating technologies, opening new market frontiers and leapfrogging everyone in the industry. Yours went to someone else, borrow their expertise to run business in a market where it is not the largest player by a wide margin. Your DGSB was "disruptive" too, bravo ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) Don't dictate someone managing few hundred million Ringgit on how to invest when you are handling thousands of Ringgit.

@stockraider They did share issuance to raise RM56.886 million in 2018 and you are saying they are great and net cash. Strong companies would instead borrow from banks with lower cost of capital, and this would be especially easy if their prospects are indeed that great. Raised RM56.886 million, put RM11.34 million and RM8.20 million into intangible assets and other investments without proper justification. RM18 million in trade receivables but RM14 million more than 90 days past due, that's 20% of the market capitalization if it indeed gets impaired. Calls itself disruptive but out of RM6 million in property, plant and equipment, carries RM5.0 million in leasehold building and RM500k in POS terminals. Intend to put so much capital into Fujian First United Technology Co Ltd under the plan that this entity will do software development, e-commerce and warehousing activities, and provision of marketing, supply chain management, import and export services in China. Have you ever wondered why? Small loss big gains? If it drops by 0.5 sen, investors will lose 25%. This is what gamblers like you who disguise under "margin-of-safety" tries to con people to Holland.

For the same amount of capital assuming I am desperate for "disruptive" exposure, there's Revenue Group that is also net cash. More importantly, it looks more disruptive with one-third of its property, plant and equipment being EDC terminals and that the management team actually has long-standing working experience in the electronic payment industry. Holds a merchant acquisition license except the total EDC terminals deployed is 22x larger than NetX's 1,550 units. Plus, Revenue has strategic collaboration with the owner and operator of Boost e-wallet, Merchantrade and Touch n' Go for e-wallet acceptance on revPAY platform. On top of that, it also established collaboration with AirAsia Big Point loyalty to facilitate point issuance and redemption. Most importantly, it has proven to be profitable.

Compared to your gamble on NetX, I think it is a no-brainer TTB's top picks are much more intelligent. Don't resort to Carlsberg when you incur a string of losses again, else TTB will laugh all the way to the bank.

Let's look at Stockraider's NETX, revenue of RM17.57 million...loss after taxation of RM11.46 million. LAT margin of 65.2%. Reasons for losses? Share-based compensation expenses of RM4.27 million for the offering of share options to eligible employees. Offering share options before substantial successes have been achieved? Offering share options that was 25% of the revenue when the company is loss-making? And you are complaining about TTB's fees... Loss on fair value adjustment of RM3.96 million in Mlabs System Berhad. They invested RM7.2 million in Mlabs System Berhad in September 2017 and in two years they lost close to half of the value. Can't even develop their own technology, needing to partner with Guangzhou based firm for the provision of services in territories of Cambodia, Malaysia and Thailand. What long-term prospect can you get out of this? Partnering with your competitor who is handsomer, richer, better shape and personality than you to go and court the girls you like, hmm... do you know how high the capex requirements are to enter the payment business? Why are they even prioritizing marketing and promotion expenses for the electronic payment service when they are not even capable of devising a strong infrastructure to support their value proposition? Gifting a house to a potential spouse before you even make sure you have the steady foundation to make him / her to fall in love with you? Adios bro

@stockraider stop being ridiculous. Please examine your own thought process before you criticized others. I am not saying Tan Teng Boo is the best but on a relative basis compared to you, I have no other options than to say exactly that.

Padini, a business with more than 40 years experience operating in the Malaysian retail industry. Also a retail business with strong brand awareness on Vincci, Seed and Padini, and today has 141 retail stores all over Malaysia, 3x the number of stores Uniqlo has. Think of another homegrown fashion brand with that kind of distribution density in Malaysia. Adheres to what the Chinese say i.e. cheap, beautiful and decent quality. Currently consolidating its distribution presence into concept stores to serve as a one-stop fashion solution for fellow Malaysians while reducing its rental per square feet, pointing towards margin expansions as it scales up more intelligently. Revenue grew 16.2% on a compounded basis from FY2015 to FY2019 while profit after tax and net asset value doubled in the same time period. Managed by a team that has the drive to even expand out of Malaysia.

SAM, i3 probably knows this well enough. Revenue grew 13.71% on a compounded basis from 2015 until 2019. Profit after taxes grew more than revenue did, at 23% compounded basis for the same time period. Net profit margin of 10% for a manufacturing company. Managed by world-class Singaporean management team. Catering to the needs of Airbus and Boeing, which is in an industry that is highly regulated with high barriers of entry both from regulators and buyers as the latter would prefer not to have any changes in their supply chain that has already been stabilized. Over the next 20 years, there will be demand for close to 40,000 new passenger and freight aircraft with 70% of the demands coming from traffic growth. Order backlog for Airbus and Boeing can last for 9.2 years and 7.3 years based on 2018 production rates. The combined order backlog of both as of February 2019 was 13,300 units. You do the calculation and feel the earnings visibility yourself.

Suria Capital, monopoly port operator in Sabah. Involved in logistics and bunkering services, which is a very important part of any economy and an increasingly integrated world especially in the ASEAN region. True enough, its net profit remained stagnant although revenue grew 5.6% on a compounded basis from 2009 until 2018 but bear in mind the net margin is 13% and this would not disappear over night given its market position. Fundamentally safe proxy to track economic ASEAN prospect.

APM, prominent automotive parts supplier in Southeast Asia with businesses in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar and even Australia. Purchased and constructed plants in Thailand and Australia. How many Malaysian businesses can construct a plant in Australia? NETX? Strong OEM clientele base, which again is not a market anyone can enter. True that profit fell while revenue showed a meager growth of 1.16% compounded over five years from 2013 until 2018. But the balance sheet is strong and its main products namely suspensions and interior & plastic parts are exactly what most Malaysian drivers will have to frequently change given the prevalence of potholes and the scorching heat from the sun. Aggressively building its presence in the domestic replacement market with its network of 463 dealers across Malaysia.

Guess I don't have to talk about Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia as I believe you are probably an avid consumer of alcohol after your string of losses.

MKH, property developer with strong presence in Kajang / Semenyih area. Go travel around Kajang now when you have time, strongly recommended. Ongoing and future projects all closely located to transportation infrastructure but is able to price its project competitively yet with a fair amount of profitability given its management shrewdness in land-banking activities. Plantation in East Kalimantan, Indonesia with good age profile. Revenue grew at 7.6% compounded between 2014 and 2018. While it is true that profit fell in the same time period, it is still consistently profitable when many property developers are suffering in this down-cycle.

It is eye-opening that many investors in iCap actually like TTB's investor education. In fact, many investors take the initiative to attend the AGM annually for exactly that. It is also puzzling that it is always the same shareholders that voice out the same unnecessary complains i.e. no dividend for many years instead of selling their holdings. Although I attended the AGMs with my wife (who uses iCap to diversify our family's hard-earned savings), I can't comprehend as to why he has an unwavering believe in Parkson and BHIC. Nonetheless, I think TTB deserves credit anyway since the iCap NAV grew substantially (>9% NAV growth since inception) and that this metric alone prevents all the cherry-picking most commentators did here.

Speaking of the share price discount to NAV, it is indeed frustrating but I believe it is a matter of sentiment which I may be wrong. After all, iCap did trade at a premium to its NAV back then during its non-cash days. If you attend the most recent AGM or read the most recent annual report, TTB has started deploying its cash again into a few interesting picks that performed favorably YTD. Of course, he did not generate alpha in the past few years compared to i3 retail investors / speculators but many shareholders that attended the AGM prefers to check on their alpha in decades. It is something interesting to anticipate. For those who entered iCap in 2017 and 2018, I genuinely have no idea who to be blamed for the hardship they went through. After all, TTB was known to hold huge cash holdings for many years by then and these new shareholders should have known this before establishing a position.

Of course, it would be great if most retail investors would be disciplined enough to stick to long-term great companies like PBB, Petronas and all the others. Unfortunately, most of them are often misled into companies like Eversendai or even JAKS especially at the peak of wrong valuations. True enough, these companies can still generate returns for them but most of them are not disciplined enough to buy low and sit still until you can sell high. The opposite rings more truth for the average retail investor. In that case, iCap works for them with among the lowest transaction cost in the industry with a respectable performance that beats most of other alternative products available in the Malaysian market. Just my two cents.

@ahbah 3iii also sifu like @stockraider leh, his portfolio revelation on Sep 1, 2018 showed strong long-term performance leh <3

YTD 1-yr 3-yr 5-yr 10-yr
Hartalega -11.3% -13.4% 124.2% 218.0% 1115.6%
Press Metal -1.1% -5.7% 186.5% 282.8% 2235.0%
Top Glove -19.4% -22.4% 87.5% 268.9% 309.1%
Hap Seng 1.5% 1.8% 28.4% 113.2% 1147.5%
PBB -19.5% -19.3% 0.3% 8.9% 89.1%
Nestle -0.2% 1.7% 87.7% 115.0% 357.5%
TNB 4.2% -5.5% -2.1% 7.7% 107.4%
F&N 5.6% 0.3% 46.1% 117.0% 233.9%
Petdag -8.7% -14.4% 1.9% 21.0% 169.8%
Petgas -10.5% -11.1% -24.5% -24.5% 69.6%

15.4% 3-year compounded return, 16.3% 5-year compounded return, 21.2% 10-year compounded return. Steady picks can sleep well somemore.

@stockraider Salutica.......to salute General Raider <3

@stockraider from your amazing comments everywhere lor <3 eh wait sorry, I think you probably can't remember since you are almost everywhere bad..they say emotionally traumatic events can lead to memory loss..

@stockraider comparison of your YTD performance for stocks you harped about (Aug 2018 - Jan 2019) to icap stockholdings

YTD
Dutaland -10.6%
Tropican -2.4%
GSB 28.6%
SapuraE -7.1%
ReachE -25.9%
Eksons -5.1%
Insas 28.4%
BJCorp -20.0%
Jtiasa 12.0%
Dnex 19.6%
JCY 34.4%
MediaC -17.9%
CBIP -13.2%
Bland -23.1%

I even gave you the benefit of using January 2019 prices for the first seven picks that were made in August and September 2018 based on your ridiculous comments everywhere. Using equal weighted average, your YTD performance is -0.2%, thinking should i go get FD...

YTD
Padini 4.0%
SAM 8.4%
Suria -1.4%
Boustd -29.0%
APM -24.8%
Carlsbg 41.0%
TongHer -30.4%
MSC 20.0%
MKH 16.1%
Parkson -4.0%
Bioalpha 0.0%
Ocean -12.0%
Kobay 27.0%
Salutica 132.5%

Equal weighted average, YTD 10.5%. 6/14 losing picks in iCap compared to 9/14 losing picks in General Raider...i treasure my sleep a lot actually...Suddenly I realized maybe iCap is good in short-term also....

@ahbah if you actually spend your time digging things further, you would be so much further ahead than @stockraider.

Start End BRK.A 5 yr CAGR 5-yr Treasury (CM)
1998 2003 3.80% 4.30%
2000 2005 4.50% 4.35%
2004 2009 2.40% 2.70%
2006 2011 0.90% 0.83%
2007 2012 -1.10% 0.72%

Let me reiterate simple & short although @blackjack21 think otherwise. If you invested in BRK.A in 1998, 2000, 2004, 2006 or 2007 and hold it for five years, your compounded annual return in 2003, 2005, 2009, 2011 or 2012 will be 3.8%, 4.5%, 2.4%, 0.9% or -1.1% which are all either similar or lower than the 5-yr treasury rate. @stockraider will say BRK.A is thrash during the end period stated above. Then again, an investor in BRK.A in exactly these end periods 2003, 2005, 2009, 2011 and 2012 will generate a compounded annual return of 10%, 10%, 10.9%, 14% and 17.6% by 2018. Maybe @stockraider is right, BRK should also gulung tikar, liquidate its equity value of ~US$400 billion to supply Malaysia one year worth of free income (our GDP is ~US$320 bln) so that everyone can rest and sembah @stockraider.

@stockraider the man who broke the Bank of England told me you are an insider in Heng Yuan trying to mislead retail investors

If you really treats him as sifu, you would start thinking why probably only the 20% who are in icap.biz who are the real winners in this stock. And he actually gave you an answer on 30th October at 1:42 p.m.

"It was Peter Lynch (I think), who wrote that during his tenure of his fund, the majority of investors who bought and sold his fund lost money. This was despite the fund growing in value at a compound annual rate of 30% or so, for almost 30 years.

The inference, even if you have selected the right fund or fund manager, your returns may be negative due to factors unrelated to them, but to yourself."
...........................................................................................................................................................
ahbah "Those who are buying into icap.biz for short term gains, often are disappointed and rightly so. Over the short term, the stock prices of icap.biz were volatile, though in the long term, it has risen steadily over the years.

Not surprisingly, I conclude that they are more disgrunted investors, numerically, in icap (those who realised losses or are still sitting on losses) than the happy investors.

Also, it is probably the 20% who are in icap.biz who are the real winners in this stock."

Above from our sifu 3iii

@ahbah if you follow through my comments and 3iii's comments properly, we did not intend to protect / defend icap. We were merely stating the facts as well as experiences of other super-investors so that people are not deceived by stockraider. Please be objective.

@ahbah I am fairly amazed how you can understand stockraider's long and inaccurate posts but not 3iii and my posts that are more factual. Please don't view me as selfish if you intend to when you are not interested in helping yourself. 3iii and me are generous enough this time.

@ahbah 10-year CAGR data for you to study over the weekend.

Year BRK.A S&P500 Diff
1986 41.3% 8.8% 33%
1987 36.9% 11.3% 26%
1988 40.9% 10.7% 30%
1989 39.1% 12.1% 27%
1990 31.7% 10.9% 21%
1991 32.1% 11.4% 21%
1992 31.2% 13.3% 18%
1993 28.7% 10.9% 18%
1994 32.0% 11.1% 21%
1995 29.2% 11.2% 18%
1996 28.3% 11.0% 17%
1997 31.6% 11.8% 20%
1998 31.0% 15.1% 16%
1999 20.5% 15.2% 5%
2000 26.7% 15.6% 11%
2001 23.6% 12.2% 11%
2002 20.0% 9.1% 11%
2003 17.8% 7.9% 10%
2004 15.7% 9.4% 6%
2005 10.7% 8.3% 2%
2006 12.4% 6.9% 5%
2007 11.9% 5.4% 7%
2008 5.5% 1.2% 4%
2009 5.9% -3.3% 9%
2010 5.4% -2.2% 8%
2011 4.3% 0.6% 4%
2012 6.3% 3.3% 3%
2013 7.8% 5.5% 2%
2014 9.9% 5.5% 4%
2015 8.4% 5.5% 3%
2016 8.3% 4.8% 4%
2017 7.7% 5.2% 3%
2018 9.8% 8.5% 1%

BRK.A must be trash in 2008.

BRK.A S&P500 Diff BRK.A S&P500 Diff
1-yr ret 1-yr ret 5-yr cag 5-yr cag

1976
1977 43.8% -3.7% 47.6%
1978 18.8% -2.1% 20.9%
1979 110.5% 7.2% 103.4%
1980 32.8% 15.3% 17.6%
1981 31.8% 7.9% 23.9% 44.5% 4.7% 39.8%
1982 38.4% -6.5% 44.9% 43.4% 4.0% 39.3%
1983 69.0% 34.0% 35.0% 53.8% 10.8% 43.0%
1984 -2.7% 0.0% -2.7% 31.8% 9.3% 22.6%
1985 93.7% 16.4% 77.3% 42.2% 9.5% 32.7%
1986 14.2% 26.5% -12.4% 38.2% 13.0% 25.1%
1987 4.6% 21.4% -16.8% 30.6% 19.1% 11.5%
1988 59.3% -7.4% 66.7% 29.1% 10.6% 18.5%
1989 84.6% 21.5% 63.1% 46.7% 15.0% 31.7%
1990 -23.1% 3.6% -26.6% 22.0% 12.4% 9.6%
1991 35.6% 12.4% 23.2% 26.3% 9.7% 16.5%
1992 29.8% 10.5% 19.3% 31.8% 7.7% 24.1%
1993 38.9% 8.6% 30.3% 28.3% 11.2% 17.1%
1994 25.0% 2.0% 23.0% 18.7% 7.3% 11.3%
1995 57.4% 17.7% 39.7% 36.9% 10.1% 26.8%
1996 6.2% 23.8% -17.5% 30.4% 12.3% 18.1%
1997 34.9% 30.3% 4.6% 31.4% 16.0% 15.4%
1998 52.2% 24.3% 27.9% 33.8% 19.2% 14.6%
1999 -19.9% 22.3% -42.1% 22.4% 23.6% -1.2%
2000 26.6% 7.5% 19.0% 17.2% 21.4% -4.2%
2001 6.5% -16.4% 22.9% 17.3% 12.2% 5.1%
2002 -3.8% -16.7% 12.9% 9.6% 2.6% 7.0%
2003 15.8% -2.9% 18.7% 3.8% -2.3% 6.1%
2004 4.3% 17.1% -12.8% 9.4% -3.2% 12.6%
2005 0.8% 6.8% -6.0% 4.5% -3.3% 7.8%
2006 24.0% 8.6% 15.5% 7.8% 1.9% 5.9%
2007 28.8% 12.7% 16.1% 14.2% 8.2% 6.0%
2008 -15.4% -17.4% 2.0% 7.3% 4.8% 2.5%
2009 -17.2% -22.3% 5.1% 2.4% -3.5% 5.9%
2010 21.4% 20.2% 1.2% 6.3% -1.1% 7.5%
2011 -4.7% 11.2% -15.9% 0.9% -0.7% 1.5%
2012 16.8% 8.8% 8.0% -1.1% -1.4% 0.3%
2013 32.7% 19.1% 13.6% 8.2% 6.1% 2.1%
2014 27.0% 17.5% 9.5% 17.9% 15.3% 2.6%
2015 -12.5% 6.7% -19.2% 10.4% 12.6% -2.1%
2016 23.4% 1.6% 21.8% 16.3% 10.6% 5.7%
2017 21.9% 16.9% 5.0% 17.3% 12.2% 5.1%
2018 2.2% 12.1% -10.0% 11.3% 10.8% 0.5%

@ahbah I showed you Berkshire Hathaway Class A and S&P500 annualized and moving 5-year compounded annual growth rate from 1976 to 2018. Even on an annual basis, Warren Buffett underperformed the market based on you people's "alpha" calculation. BRK.A underperformed the market for 11 years. Still, over 42 years, $1 invested in BRK.A grows into $3,416 while S&P500 would grow only from $1 to $26. Notice in most periods, BRK.A grows / outperform when the benchmark declines (1977, 1978, 1982, 1988, 2001, 2002) and it does not matter for BRK.A that much a single year of decline since they are long-term investor that will render the annual book loss irrelevant. The key here like @JohnDough mentioned, do not lose money.

Now let's look at the 5-yr moving CAGR, realize how there is suddenly only one year that you will experience a down year in 2012? In contrast, you would experience seven down years with S&P500 (2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012)? Notice how these periods extend from an initial phase of euphoric market speculation? Notice how BRK.A now only underperformed the market in three years (1999, 2000, 2015)? According to stockraider's logic, BRK.A is trash in 2003, 2005, 2009, 2011, 2012? How much would I have made on a CAGR basis if I invested in BRK.A in these periods until end of 2018? 2003: 10%; 2005: 10%; 10.9%; 2011: 14%; 2012: 17.6%. I will miss out on all these gains just because at one particular 5-year period, someone like stockraider tells me BRK.A is trash. For your information, icap NAV's moving 5-year CAGR stood up considerably well despite the plunge in KLCI. Think about it another way, you sell icap at RM2.80 at the end of 2017, the peak of icap share price. Then, you listened to stockraider, bought Heng Yuan at RM15.00 waiting for it to reach RM35 - RM45. Today, you will have ~RM0.80 for yourself.

The point is to have a long-term vision, discipline and trust in the right person. I am not saying TTB is the best but I am definitely more inclined to trust him and 3iii than stockraider.

@ahbah why is it his responsibility to protect the poor / novice / retail investors' interest? Especially when some poor / novice / retail investors' rather heed stockraider's baseless claims?

______________________________________________________________________________
ahbah "I am invested for the long term aiming to build wealth over the long term through long term compounding. I will vote for icap.biz fund tenure to be renewed next AGM for my own selfish reasons."

Sifu 3iii will vote for icap.biz fund tenure to be renewed next AGM BASED ON HIS OWN SELFISH REASONS ONLY - NOT BASED ON PROTECTING THE POOR / NOVICE / RETAIL INVESTORS' INTEREST LIKE ahbah.

@3iii well said, something to think deeply about @ahbah

3iii: My reply to ahbah the Great

Should icap.biz fund be disbanded or to be renewed?

Well, as an initial shareholder of icap.biz berhad, I have also added more shares over the years. I am riding on significant gains in this stock and my opinion is of course, biased by my experience.

Each investor will have different experiences and their opinion of this stock will accordingly be influenced by their personal experiences (recency bias). Also, the investment objective, risk tolerance and time horizon for each investor is different. Not surprisingly, there will be different opinions.

I am invested for the long term aiming to build wealth over the long term through long term compounding. I will vote for icap.biz fund tenure to be renewed next AGM for my own selfish reasons.

I am also of the opinion that the majority of the shareholders in icap.biz berhad will vote to extend the tenure of the fund. ttb has cultivated these investors who share his philosophy and these investors have remained loyal to ttb so far. It would be difficult for the outcome to be otherwise.

@stockraider

"THE WORSE PERFORMANCE WAS RECORDED IN 2018 WITH NEGAIVE RETURN OF MORE THAN 15% COMPARE WITH PREVIOUS YEAR LOH...!!"

One: I don't know how you get more than 15%. Looking at the actual NAV figure over http://www.icapital.my/announcements/weeklynav/weeklynav2018/ NAV declined 10.8% for FY2018. Price based on closing for the year declined 12.1%.

Two: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2018/188377.jsp This is i3 2018 stock pick competition result. Everyone got whacked by the election result and 18Q4, stop being immature. Even if iCap holds no cash and gets fully invested, it will still be easily top 30. Go and check US funds' 13F filings also.

Now I understand why Philip thinks you are just an office myvi boy that pretends to be a lion.

@stockraider wa, I say long term from inception until 2019, you say must look at shorter term 2014 until 2019. Then I say enter 2015 and exit 2017, you say too short and that is trading. You must be from the lineage of Chronos, God of Time. No wonder can promise Insas 90 cents after Merdeka.

@stockraider yeah dude, if you buy 2015 and exit 2017, your compounded return 18.4% using price and 12.7% using NAV. That's when the cash level is more than half of the portfolio. This is following your logic and it doesn't surprises me now when I think of why you sunk your money into DGSB, Insas, Talam Transform or lari Heng Yuan kuat kuat at RM15. Cheers, I find it fun to sometimes stand-up for icap against you.

@ahbah Plenitude ok la Choivo likes it I think. Poh Huat you really Huat liao lor, now waiting SAMEE to turbocharge...

@stkstudent Thanks for taking the additional time to edit your comment after you first posted just to add about the numbers of I, my and me I used instead of doing your due diligence again.I am still very impressed by how you prioritize the use of your time. You can also compare FBM Emas for the following.

iCap vs. KLCI
Year NAV Price KLCI Cash*
2005 0.00 8.00 -1.57 62.39
2006 38.38 46.00 19.92 33.79
2007 125.25 162.00 58.07 15.58
2008 58.59 39.00 -4.09 32.97
2009 101.01 74.00 39.23 10.51
2010 157.58 109.00 66.15 29.87
2011 175.76 105.00 67.44 34.92
2012 195.96 137.00 84.75 34.34
2013 211.48 147.37 104.22 50.73
2014 203.21 140.16 92.66 63.16
2015 211.48 137.06 85.14 61.76
2016 222.87 155.62 79.59 68.59
2017 268.40 192.72 96.55 54.61
2018 229.08 154.59 84.93 68.52
2019* 233.22 149.43 80.75 65.78

I hope you know how to use the above to answer by thinking contextually, linking your 1, 2 & 8. Find me another commercial product with this "under-performance" when the portfolio is holding more than 50% cash for half of the period since inception. On 5, 6, 7 & 10, you should be asking yourself why are those "long-suffering" people not selling especially when it was at its peak in 2013? Why the AGM turn-up rate is so high? I recommend you read Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" and it'll be great if you even learn just about "base-rate". On 9, read my previous comments here. On 11 to 14, please refer to stockraider's comment on 23rd Oct at 11:18 a.m. and 11:59 a.m. The book will be very helpful for you I guarantee. On 3 & 4, this is not an industry thematic fund which iCap obviously made it very clear. The regulatory process for a thematic fund is not even the same so please....you can also go and trash the countless numbers of US hedge funds that lost to FANG.

On 15 and 16, I also hope you get it that when you want to voice something, make it constructive. Be like champions in i3, don't be a piece of trash. Else, you end up like this https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/116378.jsp

@Icon8888 sifu, previously RM15 target, why now RM12 saja, what changes you saw?

@ahbah are you buying index funds bro? SAM Engineering for the win la...how often you have Icon8888, 3iii and TTB targeting the same company?....

@stkstudent for your information, I graduated only secondary school from Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Lubok China in which getting overseas education is a distant dream coming from a family that extracted FFB in Guthrie's plantation as a source of income. The only difference is I persist and constantly learn by reading, thinking, meeting different people with an open mindset instead of trying to justify relative incompetency by attributing others' successes to better fortune if that is what you are trying to imply. It's not even tough to create "luck" in Malaysia if you actually tasted the cutthroat competition in China, Japan or even South Korea so suck-it-up.

Why you so kepuh to kepuh me kepuh-ing here without even conducting due diligence as to why I am doing this? I mentioned previously my wife puts quite a significant sum of money into icap so are you advocating me to be ignorant? Yeah I can probably be ignorant if I am focusing on trading volume, earnings revision etc. on KNM, Telekom Malaysia and Uzma right? I was just empathizing those who bought into Stockraider's ridiculous buy-call on Heng Yuan at its peak only to lose their lives' savings.

If you actually read what I wrote, i didn't say I was exactly happy with the performance either but attending the most recent AGM changed my perception a slightly. This is all I was advocating, that is to use all available information and make an educated judgment whenever you say something here. When you say long-suffering shareholders, please be precise with some standards. My wife who entered during the inception of the fund is not even suffering. Find some standard bro, you buy "you tiao" also you want the shape, the oil used for frying and the dough to be of certain standard right? Using local example to help you instead of doughnuts since you sounded like you have only domestic exposure in life.

I think your ability to comprehend things is impaired. I was talking about your eligibility to call someone else sohai and your response just showed me how much more sohai you are.

On Heng Yuan, you are not even refuting my statement. Have you thought about the number of people who lost money when your Heng Yuan lost two-third of its value within a year from the peak you advised to lari kuat kuat? Dare to even indicate you advised to lari kuat kuat at RM15.00, and then go around everywhere talking about margin-of-safety. Chasing maximum potential gains of 30% by risking a potential loss of 70%? You mad bro? Everyday experience traumatic amnesia? There is a good reason why you hear Public Bank minting millionaires instead of Talam Transform, DGSB and Insas and I haven't heard anyone experiencing substantial wealth deterioration following icapital.biz yet... When you are confident and understand deeply about the business itself, you build a focused portfolio. Cheapskates put 1% of their portfolio into one single position, watch it double through luck / speculation and brag around although the whole portfolio is sinking. The fact that you have to promote your picks here so desperately tells a lot about your state of achievements.

Before you start talking about City of London, icap bungkus, discount to NAV etc., please look into your INSAS Bhd and think why the valuation is not reflecting its stake in Inari. Jangan jaga tepi kain orang you know...especially when you are not protecting your own back. Before i forget, you should start by understanding share consolidation using the example of your position in DGSB because I think this is much easier to understand than ownership discounts.

Note: This is not about us against icapital or TTB, it's between you and me because you are just very disgusting.

@stockraider It's not like i'm a diehard fan of TTB but I think you are not qualified to call him sohai....Heng Yuan RM45 target price, giving 10 ~ 12x PE multiple on its cyclical peak in earnings, driven not even by secular trend but by Hurricane Harvey...and not even vertically integrated...you should go pray for another hurricane to wipe away how stupid you sounded..

@ahbah check S&P500 today

Calvin, I appreciate your effort in sharing your analysis takes less than a day to prepare...or maybe you are not sharing the full piece of your work la...if research like that can make money...every stock-market participant billionaire liao lo...

@ahbah https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/231104.jsp jom goreng la

@ahbah ok la boss, since my wife is holding icapital.biz Berhad shares, and after attending the AGM, here is my 20 cents la especially after attending the AGM la.

1) On cash holdings

I used to agree with you also la, hold so much cash why my wife need to pay Mr. Tan to hold cash for her right? Recently, I was making an effort to understand an American company and got to know one of the largest shareholder is Baupost Group, led by Seth Klarman la. Dude has more than 15% CAGR over 33 years, which would multiply your initial capital by a minumum of 100x la....think this sums the logic of cash holdings quite well la..

https://valuehunter.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/klarman_cash.pdf

I personally hold very few stocks that have done relatively well for me la...United Plantation, Can-One, AirAsia, Hibiscus and Hartalega la...but I think I was lucky only, punted Johore Tin also thanks to CharlesT. My wife and I are retirees and I believe you are probably aware of the average profile of iCap investors also. If you mapped U.S. non-financial corporation's market capitalization with its subsequent 12-year return, you are looking at very strong explanatory power of valuation on long-term returns. Why U.S. you would ask? Because Malaysia where got give so deep data and whenever something bad happens to U.S., we also kena la...With the valuation metric now pointing towards close to 0% return over the subsequent 12 years, I would be inclined to hold cash also la so I don't think Mr. Tan is timing the market per se but rather asset valuation does not offer sufficient margin-of-safety la...In fact, the valuation metric started pointing to an expected 4% return over the subsequent 12 years since 2012 and I was pre-disposed to hold cash as well la since I am taking quite some risk compared to FD...few months ago CIMB even offered Islamic FD with interest >5% p.a....got promotion they say... Should I penalize him for capital preservation while returning my wife 9% p.a. (NAV) since inception...I don't know leh...I always imagined also if he is fully invested on those same holdings, he could probably generate >15% easily but given the options available in the market with most unit trusts being fully invested generating +-8% per annum... I think I give credit to him for that especially when you think about how his investors are mostly retirees la...

2) On Parkson.....

I also questioned my wife and myself on his decisions on Parkson la..but then my dating experiences taught me about "can't see the forest for the trees" la... Seth Klarman built a ~9% stake in Antero Resources starting from 2014 at a price of $50++ all the way down to $15++ and now the stock is trading at $2.55....takkan I wanna say Seth Klarman is stupid..quite sure a lot of professional fund managers in U.S. are not even confident of spouting that.. plus Mr. Tan stood to his promise of deploying cash when opportunities arose and he did significantly into SAM Engineering... I do not understand the business well enough la but this is among Icon8888's largest holding la and he expects the share to trade at RM15...so this one give credit also la..

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/115861.jsp

3) On missing out the semiconductor run....

This one I personally also missed la haha because I cannot understand at all but thank god I participated a bit on the furniture export run la..the last thing my wife and I would want to hear from our fund manager would be that he is investing in hot stocks he barely able to understand..this 1 I fully agree with Philip's idea that one should understand the business intuitively first la.. although I also tangan gatal looking at Frontken..

4) Compensation

Can't say much about this la since I do not know their cost structure that well but their employee count is pretty high based on what we saw in the AGM...on the performance, hard to tell in 15 years especially the past 5 years when even American value funds under-performed..at one time frame, even Seth Klarman underperformed the index by 50% only to emerge a winner later on...I addicted to OTB also la but my wife is happy with >7% p.a. without worrying any risk of losses...if she experienced OTB's 2018 temporary crash I will have a tough year la..

My 200 cents ;) still waiting for @CharlesT to tell me what he thinks about Can-One Bhd going forward.....

CharlesT Posted by Quincy > Oct 16, 2019 9:41 AM | Report Abuse

@CharlesT bro..since when so free haha didn't know you are that into icap, thanks for the tip on Johotin weih, sailang there and laughed to the bank ;)

Johotin? That was grandmother's story many years back...lol

I saw many new IDs came here last few days to show their love n support to Tan Bear Bear so i just have some lively discussion with them loh

........................................................................................................................................................

@CharlesT you mentioned right before 2019 Stock Pick competition "Johotin is good lah...somemore Boss likes to goreng too" so I checked lor haha.

But bro, my wife added huge amount of iCap early this year after you mentioned Icap perform so so given your high screening standard, that should be ok kot...9% p.a. NAV growth ok la we no need worry like JAKS & Sendai, attended the AGM also, not catering to i3 champions' appetite haha. Eh any comments on Can-One?

@CharlesT bro..since when so free haha didn't know you are that into icap, thanks for the tip on Johotin weih, sailang there and laughed to the bank ;)

very strong industry tailwind for the aerospace division with high barriers of entry, proven management team...hmmm

The company faces a severe growth bottleneck since the aggressive venture into project-based business started. A business based on modular system, the entry into business of serving real estate developer resulted in price pressure which led to the company cutting and delaying contractors' compensation. If the latter is unhappy, customers will be complaining about the quality and they already are complaining especially on size fit and the delicacy of installation. You can't grow a business like this healthily unless you train a high volume of contractors in-house. Their past success is mainly a function of being among the first licensed large kitchen cabinet supplier in Malaysia but these hypes don't live long if quality and delivery do not follow. Moreover, it's a very competitive industry with numerous medium-sized enterprises and a bunch of independent "uncle" players. Just my two cents.

@captainjeremysparrow Rm1.07 can buy or not?

Somewhat odd that Focus Lumber Bhd with a proven track record of more than a decade customer relationship with Ihlo Sales & Import Co. and exposure to high margin niche recreational vehicle industry is actually selling for RM126 million. Considering the fact that it is holding RM87 million in liquid securities and even if we treat the cash and bank balances as purely operational so that ~RM50 million can be fully distributed to shareholders, that arrives at RM76 million enterprise value. With the ability to generate at least RM10 million normalized free cash flow while actively searching for new customers to reduce reliance on Ihlo Sales & Import Co., the business is actually selling for a cash yield of ~13%.

Fair enough that the 20% slowdown YTD in recreational vehicle sales in US is a concern and that the huge exposure to a single customer more often than not results in lower valuation premium. Perhaps a deep value play that doesn't fit my appetite tho.