serba dah jadi serbuk

https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/commodity-palm-oil.png?s=palmoil&v=202205090820V20220312&forecast=te

Palm Oil is expected to trade at 6632.96 MYR/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 7383.68 in 12 months time.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/palm-oil

massive opening trade vol 1472 val 538,752 shown in order que for tomorrow! quiet interesting..

the only green in the sea of red

Kenanga maintain SERBADK TP RM2.70

Maintain OUTPERFORM, with TP of RM2.70.
SERBADK has been awarded a contract for the engineering
and construction of a data centre in Abu Dhabi, UAE, worth
USD350m (~RM1,469m), expected to be completed within 4
years. Overall, we are positive on the win, being a fruition of
the company’s efforts in expanding its ICT segment, with
the contract also bearing low job execution and delivery
risks. Post-award, the group’s order-book stands at
RM18.5b, of which 10% is derived from its ICT segment.

Data centre project in UAE. SERBADK announced that it had
accepted a letter of award from Future Digital Data Systems L.L.C to
undertake the engineering and construction of a data centre in Abu
Dhabi, UAE. The project forms part of the client’s initiative to develop a
series of data centres across the MENA region, addressing the growing
needs for such technologies e.g. cloud, AI, machine learning, and big
data analytics. The contract is valued at USD350m (or ~RM1,469m),
with an effective date of 1 September 2020, and is expected to be
completed within 4 years.

Further strengthening of its ICT segment. We are positive on the
contract award, being a fruition of the group’s effort in expanding its ICT
segment. To-date, the group’s order-book stands at RM18.5b, of which
10% is derived from its ICT segment. As a comparison, the ICT
segment had only contributed <5% of its order-book during the start of
the year. The expansion of the group’s ICT segment also provides the
group an additional source of revenue away from oil and gas,
especially when the sector is currently in the midst of an extended
down-cycle.

Meanwhile, we also do not see major risks in the contract’s job
execution and delivery. Most of the works required seem to be fairly low
in complexity (e.g. civil works, building works, and mechanical,
electrical and plumbing works) and should fall comfortably within
SERBADK’s expertise.

Overall, this marks as the company’s fourth contract announcement
YTD, bringing YTD wins to ~RM10.9b. We expect the contract to fetch
gross margin of roughly 15-20%, in line with the company’s historical
average.

Maintain OUTPERFORM, with unchanged TP of RM2.70, pegged to
15x PER on FY21E EPS. No changes to our FY20-21E numbers for
now, with the YTD wins still broadly within our FY20E order-book
replenishment assumption of RM10b, while also pending the release of
the group’s 2QFY20 results later this month.

We continue to like SERBADK given its superb record of earnings
growth delivery, and for also having one of the best ROEs within the
sector. With only ~40% of its order-book exposed to oil and gas, we
believe it to be one of the few resilient names among its peers to better
navigate through the current oil down-cycle.
Risks to our call include: (i) lower-than-expected order-book
replenishment, (ii) weaker-than-expected margins, and (iii) geopolitical
unrest in the Middle-East affecting oil and gas-related activities

fuhh sudently all green

MAYBANK new TP MYR28.60

Top Glove (TOPG MK)
Follow the ASP momentum

A 6-month trade; maintain BUY

We raise our FY8/20-22 EPS by 13%/103%/44% on higher ASP assumptions. Our new TP is MYR28.60 (+31%), based on a lower P/E target of 16x (from 23x; a tad lower than its 5-year mean of 17.5x) on the supernormal CY21E EPS. Maintain BUY as share price could still be supported by the ASP hikes in the next 6 months. In our view, this is only a trade as Top Glove’s high ASP premium against its peers will likely dissipate from 2QCY21, in anticipation of more new supply.

Small impact from the US detention order

Due to the US detention order on 2 of its subsidiaries (12.5% of total sales volume), Top Glove has engaged independent consultants to verify all aspects of the foreign workers’ welfares (i.e. overtime, passport safekeeping, accommodations, recruitment fees). Top Glove is hopeful for the issue to be resolved by mid-Aug. In the event that this drags on, it will re-route the detained shipments to other markets at a lower ASP (i.e. 5% lower than to US). Assuming it takes 1 month to re-route the shipments, we estimate that it would reduce our FY20E net profit by 2%.

Wide ASP gap against peers

In Aug, Top Glove raised its glove ASPs by 25-30% MoM. It plans to raise its ASP in Sep by another c.20% MoM and the ASP hikes will sustain into Dec 2020 due to the glove shortage. Meanwhile, its peers are likely to raise their ASPs by 10-15% MoM until Dec 2020. Presently, Top Glove’s nitrile glove ASP premium is 25-50% higher than its peers and the gap may stay as the ASP hikes from its peers continue to lag that of Top Glove. In our view, Top Glove can continue to charge a premium in the next 6 months given the acute shortage. However, as new supply comes online from 2QCY21, we expect Top Glove’s ASPs to peak in 1QCY21 and to fall from 2QCY21 as it needs to reduce its ASP premium against its peers.

Earnings to peak in 2QFY21E?

As we expect Top Glove’s ASP to peak in 1QCY21, we project Top Glove’s quarterly net profit to peak in 2QFY21 (Dec-Feb) at MYR2.65b on high EBITDA margin of 58%.

Top Glove sg RM25.05 https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TOPG:SP

irony all other counters are green except glove