The following is an extract I have taken out from some of my readings. I have read such comments many times but I wonder how many of us can really do this! This include myself that sometime do the silly thing.

1) We will never know when exactly a stock will shoot up or reach that inflection point we have been waiting for.
All we can do is position ourselves in stocks that we find of value – be it growth, turnaround, or cyclical companies.
2) After we buy a particular stock, it may go down further, which is okay as long as we are eventually right in our thesis for the company, we will make a profit.
Stocks do not go on a straight line up.
Truly, having a long-term time horizon is one of the key competitive advantages any investor could ever have.
Remember, we are owning a stake in a business, so we should act like a business owner – not a stock trader.

Good growth, good financial management and excellent project execution are the hallmarks of GDB.......

Oxley Tower, an interesting project indeed.....

Welcome GENER.....

"Some day traders do make money. However, the odds are definitely not in your favor. One research report published by several university professors determined that in any given year, only about 13% of day traders achieve a profit. Even worse, the study found that less than 1% of day traders consistently make money."

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ksk-land-granted-rm650m-syndicated-financing-8-conlay-kempinski-hotel-residences

New investor bought 20 million shares from Cheah and Alex at 80sen a share.

This is not selling on the open market. It is a off market deal....

New investor willing to pay 80sen for a block of shares now is a sign that GDB should worth more in the near future.......

You are right! If you see the 2019 annual report, there are 3 Hong Leong Investment Funds are on the top 30 list. Did anyone see Hong Leong Research published any reports? I have not......I think likely they will issue reports after they collected enough......lol...

Q3 result is within expectation.......

@chengcheekaan

Great to see more guys are posting their thoughts on GDB.....

Totally agree on the sub-con relationship part. A great team both from within GDB and the committed and experience sub-cons are needed to be successful....

Agree that the eventual margin depends on how well and efficient you execute the project. The COO Alex got a big and important challenge at hand. I trust he will do well after hearing that he is the most hardworking guy around.

In 2018, when I was told GDB completes all projects ahead of schedule, I don't believe what I heard, until I personally went into GDB website to see for myself.

A Singapore civil engineer that log into GDB website was impressed, I was told.....

@makemesomemoney

My thinking is about the same with you except slightly different on the thinking on PE.

The market is normally, forward thinking. When I bought GDB, the PE was about 5 to 6 times only, but now is about 16 to 17 times. After IPO, for many months, no projects were secured, the market thus less understand GDB's potential, so the market priced it at a low PE. Then especially after 2019, 953mil was secured, the market has understand a little more on GDB's potential, so thus willing to accord a higher PE......

The 8 Conlay if done successfully, will be another hallmark to GDB. The success of it will on the minimum maintain the 16 to 17 times PE and won't be surprised may even go higher......

My personal PE for quick reference is 15 times but the actual can be higher...

Anyway, a good PAT in 2021 will definitely bring angpao to us all.....

A great thanks to GDB for the good work done!

@GENER....I hope too. GDB has been one of my most interesting investment since 2018. I have faith in the management of the company.

I have nearly two legs in them....lol....

Many in the market has some concerns and doubts on the payment.....

GENER, just my views on the following:

1) The 8 Conlay cannot afford to delay anymore....I believe KSK Land cannot afford to fail this first project, especially such a high end and prominent project.
2) GDB being a reputable construction house will have the interest to see 8 Conlay completed timely with quality.
3) I see both GDB and KSK Land are definitely committed for 8 Conlay success.
4) I hope KSK Land will pay timely to ensure the smooth execution of this project. My guess is their financial is not that bad.
5) As payment is progressive, GDB still has some options in the worst case. Hopefully nothing will happen as what we are imagining.

Buy and hold until next year.....you will get your angpau......

The purpose of LOI was well written in the Bursa announcement....click on attached file!

Interesting read:

https://simplywall.st/stocks/my/capital-goods/klse-gdb/gdb-holdings-berhad-shares/news/the-attractive-combination-that-could-earn-gdb-holdings-berhad-klsegdb-a-place-in-your-dividend-portfolio/

As long as GDB is focused on improving the business, it is on the right track.

Challenging times affect every construction companies, the better ones will come up on top. The one billion revenue is a obvious major milestone for GDB.

Investor patients and support are necessary on our part!

Mitsui Fudosan enters JV with Bukit Bintang City Centre for RM242mil en-bloc deal

Construction Robot:

https://jewishlifenews.com/uncategorized/construction-robot-market-latest-news-development-by-top-key-players-brokk-global-husqvarna-group/

District Cooling System:

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/suncon-team-engie-district-cooling-system-projects

I think local construction companies should look into growth base on technical and engineering competency....A study on Shimizu construction giant will show some ideas.

Can Malaysia construction companies go international?

If GDB can achieve one billion revenue by 2025, it is a annual compounding rate of about 20%....well within my expectation of investing criteria.....

Yes....moving to main board should be part of the journey to bigger thing to come. As I said earlier, it is likely that GDB has the DNA to grow into something much bigger and more importantly come with a competitive and quality work culture that current market looking for......

@popo92....i do agree is not easy...

GDB MD Cheah on some two week ago mentioned about targeting the one billion revenue, that got me excited on the prospect....he mentioned about a more than 60 storeys project that he is targeting and is out for tender soon, value at about one billion...it is not something for sure but if it can be secured, it will definitely helps a lot in order book value that move one step nearer to the prospect...

In the coming May annual report, let us see if there are some interesting new guys that might appear in the top 30 list....judging by the buying volume lately, it is likely to see some changes to the top 30 list....

Glad to know that you have pick up some as well...Having a 30% dividend policy right at the start of IPO is no easy feat...I have great respect for it!

Cheah and Alexander together hold a combine shareholdings of 74%...they have more reasons than me to try harder....

popo92....thanks for your inputs and comment.

Future valuation of a business is definitely a very difficult one!

I have taken some discount for GDB over Kerjaya on my assumption....for more safety, you can put on more discounts....generally buying lower is always safer for sure!

Investment instinct for everyone is different...just go according to your feel.

If you are a shareholder, you should be able to feel more after attending the AGM.

Kerjaya is good but they are already not so small...GDB is much smaller and my bet is
on them to grow into at least one billion revenue in a few years....I can be wrong but I still like to take on this bet. Right or wrong is my own decision...I can only kick myself if I am wrong....

Also, I like the two sen dividend they are paying. At least I get paid while I am waiting...

When I bought last year, the concern was not enough project secured....now is on the margins...really, it is anybody's guess....

Do self homework and follow up with whatever necessary actions to help your own decision. All that were written, be it from the analysts or whatever sources are for reference only...your own homework and decision is the most powerful....

Commentary by AirAsia:

The year-on-year reduction in profit was due to several reasons including:
1. recognition of prior year losses of RM147mn from AirAsia India as we increased our capital contribution
2. the higher maintenance cost, which is impacted negatively due to more leased aircraft post the aircraft monetisation exercise, which I will explain later.
3. depreciation of ringgit and rupiah
4. anti competition watchdog fine of RM10mn
For this quarter, MFRS 16 did not negatively impact us.

Related to point two above, I would like to clarify that this increase in maintenance expense is purely due to the differences in accounting treatment between leased and owned aircraft. On a cash basis, there is no difference in maintenance costs regardless of whether we own our aircraft or lease them.

The accounting difference in the maintenance line relates to the major overhaul of engines. For owned aircraft, major overhaul is capitalised into the aircraft when it occurs as it prolongs the life of aircraft used in operations. This is then depreciated over the useful life of the asset. In other words, P&L impact is after the major overhaul. For leased aircraft, major overhaul will need to be expensed immediately (from day 1 receiving the plane). Maintenance provision which is charged to P&L is created to match against the “utilisation for earnings”, based on usage, typically over 20,000 cycles. Based on our utilisation, this would be ~8 years.

As a result, as we move from owning to leasing aircraft, we have to incur higher maintenance charges in the early years of leasing the aircraft, although on a cash flow basis, nothing has changed.

By next week Thursday, the 90sen special dividend will be disbursed to your accounts...

For some, this can be used as defensive strategy for the current fear of a global recession....

If you are aggressive, then is a different story....

What ever you buy or own now, make sure they are rock solid businesses that can withstand the recession and come out stronger after the recession....

We want to make money but need to sleep well as well......

At RM1.95 with 12sen annual dividend, dividend yield is 6.15%...

It is a matter of time that dividend investors will mop up the shares at this price...

Dividend with growth is what value investors are always look for...

Market value of selected airlines worldwide as of July 2019 (in billion U.S. dollars)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/275948/market-capitalization-of-selected-airlines/

Using the Price/Sales Ratio to Find Value in the Airline Industry

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/21/using-pricesales-ratio-to-find-value-airline.aspx

Agjl, lower foreign shareholdings maybe less risk, my view! And if they choose to come back again, it can drive up the share price very fast....we don't know when but I guess those that can hold is likely to have the advantage.....

Sorry i miss out the escalating oil price as another reason for the big sell out by foreigners in 2018....

Analysis on EPF shareholdings changes:

If you look at EPF shareholdings changes announcements, EPF appointed investment agents are all holding their shares except Templeton.....even CIMB PRI is still holding their shares despite Raymond Yap keep calling to sell.....kind of strange, right?

Note: You can see the EPF appointed agents' holdings at the bottom of the announcement page.

EPF by themselves keep accumulating.....I can conclude EPF is going for the 90sen dividend.

If you analyse the foreign shareholdings, 2018 and I suspect including the 1st half of 2019, most foreigners sold out mainly I believe is due to the weakening of emerging market currencies including that of Malaysia.

It is ok to read analyst reports for reference, it is more important that we draw our own conclusion finally, right or wrong, at least we know the reasons why we have decided that way.....

I have a very savvy investor friend that many years ago I still remember what I said to him regarding investment in AirAsia. You can say both of us have about exactly the same data and information on AirAsia then....but we end up with a very different conclusion as to whether to buy in or not.....so, I believe the analysts will be having the same problem, all calling for their own different views. But there are some analysts out there that has their own hidden agenda and thus adding some bias views to their conclusion (knowingly or unknowingly). So, we need to be careful in identifying them!

I am suspicion on Raymond Yap's judgement on AirAsia! Having the lowest target price and a call to sell, while others are either buy or hold. If I were to take the average TP of the 6 analysts that have issued their latest reports on May 30th, it is still around RM2.85....but CIMB Raymond's TP is RM1.50.....why is Raymond's TP so different from the others? Is he a better analyst or he just want to be different from the rest?

Anyway, for me I will take the 90sen dividend first and see what happened after that...AirAsia has gone through a more serious crisis in 2015....beaten down like hell and recovered....this time around, is it more critical than 2015? I don't think so.....

Each of us judge differently! It is ok as long as it is our own judgement, not Raymond or anybody else....if I am wrong I blame myself and not because I am influenced by Raymond or somebody else.....only judging myself I can learn from it!

Trade wars may end up favourable to AirAsia ?

Ron Paul: Exploding trade wars.....

https://youtu.be/TQOrsPvZhXU

Trade wars are likely to put more pressures on oil price.....

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/46

Ok Agjl.......

If you add up the last 10 years(2009 to 2018) of attributable profits to shareholders, it is averaging about 1.0 billion a year.

Take current share price, multiply by 3.342 billion share base and minus off the net cash of about 3.4 billion after the Castlelake deal ...then you can see what you are actually paying for the business against the average of the last 10 years...

It is crazy to set target price base on quarterly inputs....i guess analyst has to write something to show their work.....but for investors, it is better to look at long term averages....for traders, it is a different story......

The MAS problem and 737 Max issue will favour AirAsia...

GDB is my next few years investment! Unless i see something no good, otherwise, it is hold for good from now.......

Good way to communicate with GDB....

I have many friends that is having different views on AirAsia after the Q4 let down! Some get cheese off and upset! I have my own view as well....

Right or wrong it doesn't matter! More important is we are making our own decision! This is a test of our judgement on the business!

There are about 3 major pullbacks all happened in 2018. 2018 was a big selldown year if you care to study the chart! The latest selldown is in my view due to the market don't like the surprise numbers just announced. The big selldown in 2018 was mainly due to two major reasons although there are a few others! The two are high oil price and the emerging market currency selldown. In fact i would say the big sell down in 2018 is more due to currency concern by the foreigners. Foreign shareholdings in AirAsia has dropped to historically low in 2018, if you care to read the half yearly announcements by AirAsia.

While the oil price is still high in 2019, i expect it to be about USD15 below the 2018 average. I don't expect currency risk to repeat in 2019. In conclusion, i think 2019 should be better year comparing to 2018! Tony has to work extra hard to mitigate the increasing operating cost and the low average ticket price.

Business is always competitive and tough, so don't expect easy ride and be ready to face challenges! Just throwing the towel is easy if you want to........

It is likely there is another 12sen final dividend in May.....

So, sell cautiously if you have to.....

Traders want to buy or sell everday! Investors look to at least for 2019 and beyond! We can trade some as well but make sure don't accidentally sell off those meant for long.......

I see.....

http://chinhinproperty.com/development-8th-stellar/

Chin Hin is launching 8 Stellar at Sri Petaling! GDB already had a project with Chin Hin(Aira) hopefully can get this project as well.

Read the quarterly report under the prospect section! As of 31st Dec 2018, there is still about 580 mil projects onhand.

I hope to hear some good news on the new projects secure before next AGM in June. At the meantime, some investors will take notice on GDB's generous dividend payouts!

GDB really pays good dividend! Glad to own this stock!

Ultimately, the charges must be fair! If it goes to court, the court will have to review MAVCOM's justification on the charges! Strictly, i am surprise why our transport minister have not step in on this matter? Unless, there is bigger hand behind this matter!

CIMB C65 expire on Feb 28, this month! Cathay Pacific up 8.8% yesterday on better fuel price! But Raymond Yap's latest call is downgrade AirAsia but hold on SIA! Raymond got a lot of explaination to do!