Market cap OKA RM176M, HUME RM1,485M

hi Ricky Yeo, based on The Edge magazine publish article title 'CMS the big winner in Pan Borneo Highway Project' on Jan 18, 2016 stated that about 50% of the highway cost could be for material cost.
http://paultan.org/2016/01/27/banting-taiping-west-coast-expressway-5-complete/ WCE construction cost about RM5B. Assume 50% for material cost, RM2.5B and assume 5% net profit margin, it will be RM125M.
How much net profit for precast concrete player? i have no idea

i think is a reasonable assumption. Let say extraction rate 20%, CPO price RM2500, Total production cost RM1700 (i think usually production cost RM1300-1600). It means profit/tonnes RM800. 75,000 tonnes x 0.2 (extraction rate) x RM800 (profit)= RM12million expected profit

Post removed.Why?

thanks for sharing

WTK

Why Bargain Exist?
14 October 2014 drop RM1.20 (previously around RM1.40)
1 Dec 2014 drop RM1
13 May 2014 drop RM1

Above situation mainly due to Alanya Marine Acquisition by issue 43.3M new ordinary shares (23 Dec 2014), about 10% outstanding share.
Partly due to investor too focus on timber future prospect (legal claim or potential tarik lessen).
Actually, this is NOT a bargain share.
Cold eye bought it because he can see the future of company (business insight) just like the reason he invest in POHUAT, Furniture Company to export good to overseas. (US housing grow, increase US currency)
He aims the plantation business to show profit!

DOWNSIDE PROTECTION
Outstanding share: 481M
Price: RM1.08/share
MC: RM520M
Based on Annual Report 2014,
Current asset (536)-all debt (450) = 86M [confirm value]
PPE (bank guarantee value, note 13) = 255M [confirm value]
Balance value: 179M
Timber PBT (e.g project area within License No. LPF/0032, note 13): 35M [less confirm value]
Palm oil : 86.4M [less confirms value, 2016E]



Palm oil Analysis
Assume CPO price: RM2300-2600
Production cost/ton: RM1300-1600
Monthly production FFB: 3000 mt
Total production/year: 36,000 mt
炼油率：20%
Profit/ton: RM800
PBT: 36,000 mt x 0.2x RM800=RM5.76M
Palm oil value: RM5.76M x 15= 86.4M

RISK
1) Potential Tarik Lesen
But at least take few years to proceed (appeal to high court).
2) Potential legal claim
-S17(a) & (b) MACC act [5x nilai rasuah]
-S4(1) Anti-money laudering, Anti-Terrorism Financing and Proceed of unlawful activities Act 2001 [Less than 5M]
-Forest Bill 2015 [less than RM500K]
3) Potential Cash burner machine: Alanya Marine Acquisition
Paid RM89M for 49% ownership
Means 182M with potential PAT 11M [EV/PAT 16.5]
4) Bad Management Wrong Decision
Continue invest in losing money business such as oil & gas, forest plantation
But, it will be less likely to happen because high insider ownership 30.76%. However, still need to monitor management investment decision.



UPSIDE
You pay RM520M worth for timber business and FREE plantation business.

Plantation Business Value at least worth 86.4M with a huge potential above 265M (palm oil biological asset value)
NTA RM2.79, P/NTA=0.38
Goal to be P/NTA 1


Data source: http://tengkhan.blogspot.com/2014/05/wtk.html publish on May 4, 2014
冷眼分享集: 怎样投资种植股？
2010/12/18 1:11:57 PM
●冷眼 股市基本面大师

产量树龄息息相关

但必须注意，油棕园的鲜果产量与树龄息息相关。

油棕种下后第三年开始结果，但产量有限，油棕园还是无利可图，要到第五年才能达到收支平衡。故由买地到种下后的第五年，油棕园都是亏本的。亏本来自维持开 支，包括除草、下肥、劳工等开支。

油棕种下后第三年就被列为“成熟”树，实际上还是没钱赚，要到第五年才略有盈利，这还要看原棕油的价格而定。

由第五年到第廿五年，盈利不断，但盛产期是由第七年至第十七年之间的十年，产量最高，如果原棕油价格挺秀的话，园主必然捞得盆满钵满，故园主对7-17最 有好感。
source: http://peng01.blogspot.com/2010/12/blog-post_2093.html

SIGNAL
Fong siling bought NEW position RM5M (around RM1/share) in this company. [VERY BIG POSITION, normally only 1-2M]
Datuk Wong Kie Yik, Founder recently bought 420,000 share (Jan-June 2015) average price RM1.05/share. (Annual salary RM135k)
Datuk Wong Kie Yik seldom buy share use his name except on 2001 year only (from 1999-2014).

My analysis limitation/risk:

1) wrongly estimate 10% PBT for RM1.3B order book
I think 10 % profit is quite reasonable estimation (welcome any opinion?? )

2)Government want immediately stop the RM1.3 project such as MRT Kota Damansara- Dataran sunway because oil keep dropping and government lack of money
But the project had been start to construct.

3)Property sector loss money even construction earning no enough to cover the loss then erosion the worst case valuation RM324M

welcome any different opinion

I try to study why Mr. cold eye invest in Gadang.

Refer to company quarterly & annual report and The sun news on 20 Nov 2014 http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1232808

Total Current asset:559M
Total debt: 351M

Net book value on Properties: 116M

Worst case valuation=559-351+116=324M

The company estimate 2015 profit before tax(PBT)= 75M

I assume 10% PBT for RM1.3B order book finish on 2016 which means total PBT RM130M for 2015-2016. Look closed to company estimated figure 75M.

Based on market price RM1.35/share means you need to pay about RM333M to buy the whole company.

You pay RM333M now and within 2 years you can get about RM130M. (about 40% return regardless any potential gain from property, utility and plantation)

And free upside of “a few billion ringgit worth of projects” tender.

Fong siling bought SSteal 750,000 share.
current price RM1.30, P/E 433, NTA RM2.01

I expect Mr. Cold eye will also buy CSCSTEL

hi Pak Lah,
I already get feed back answer from 'The Edge' magazine.

'The RM60 million to RM80 million a year from the Indian power plant is an after tax estimate after paying taxes in India. For the Pahang solar energy venture however the estimated RM12 million is a revenue estimate. '

Hope can help u

bb55, where you heard from Fong siling buy a lot of Gadang?
Your information seen like very fast:>

bb55, you are correct. refer Annual report Gadang, fong siling hold both share and warrant of Gadang. This site haven't updated yet.

Hi Pak Lah,
Do u have any opinion about the 10MW solar energy project in Pahang.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/295624-mudajaya-to-earn-up-to-rm80m-a-year-from-india.html

Refer to above article, the solar energy project in Pahang is expected to earn RM 12 million per year for 21 year.
I'm not sure the above figure (RM12 million per year) is net income or revenue?

any opinion? thx

Refer NOBY's comment: THere is an easier way. If you have a fundamental screener like the one from CIMB traders, just use the screener (Capital IQ) to search his name and the list of stocks he own will appear.

4M SKP resource (7155)

Bro Woo, kindly sent it to me. My email: niucai88@gmail.com
thx

out of position: tecnic

mk88
For example, Johore Tin Berhad.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1644593
Based on 2013 annual report, look for list of thirty (30) largest shareholder. The list is updated on 5 May 2014

New position: Johore tin berhad

new position: Hevea, khind, luxchem and k.seng

decrease position: ECS, Globetronics, M-mode

out of position: Ivory, Land &General bhd, NCB holding, Prestariang , Protasco, sapura, success and yee lee

hi sean_limkh, did u oledi received the book (valuegrowth investing) from bookdepository.com? just want to know the service of bookdepository.com. because i also plan to buy the book from bookdepository.com. thx

Hoo Kiu Ho and triple_ace: thanks for update

Cold eye decrease position on Globetronic

cold eye New position on Poh Huat
Refer to Poh Huat annual report

who knows the Poh Huat's three major customers name?

who knows the Poh Huat's three major customers?

FONG SILING is cold eye.
冯时能(冷眼)

Read annual report under Analysis of Shareholdings: LIST OF TOP 30 SHAREHOLDERS. Look for RHB CAPITAL NOMINEES (TEMPATAN) SDN BHD PLEDGED SECURITIES ACCOUNT FOR FONG SILING (CEB)

Mr fong already exist 6.2M share land & general (3174) position based on 2013 annual report of land & general

Ya