Posted by mancon > 2011-10-14 21:42 | Report Abuse

If u believe money will fall from sky, buy !

Posted by Alex11 > 2011-10-14 21:43 | Report Abuse

The potential the price adjustment or the abortion of the privatisation would mainly due to two reasons:

1. The offeror is taking advantage of the current situation to walk away or buy out ENG at a cheaper valuation. This will not happen if the offeror is genuine and serious investor as the assets are adequately covered by insurance and in the long run, the business would still be running as usual. Any downward price adjustment would definitely unfair to the offeree as no upward price adjustment would also be made for the expected 2011 profit to be earned by ENG which i believe, it will be the case at the point when the offer was made. In fact, the current situation works best for the offeror as all non-interested shareholders would definitely vote for the deal if the offer is tabled to them now.

The key question now is whether do you believe Dato Teh is a credible, gentleman and genuine offeror for his privitisation proposal. I personally believe so.How about you?

2. Funding. Obviously, the extension is to facilitate TYK's financier due diligence on ENG and not because of the flood as the extension was made before the unfortunate event. As in my first comment posted earlier, do you think the banker would walk away from the deal.

Yes, Thai operations contributed about 40% / RM230 mil revenue to ENG group's revenue in 2010. The numbers look scary but dont panic. Lets do a simple maths, assuming Thai contributions would be the same for year 2011 and on average, RM19 mil per month. Further assume that the factories in Thai would take 3 months to re-operate and thus, total loss of revenue would be RM57 mil (RM19 mil X 3). Based on the PAT margin of 4.5% (as per 2nd 2011 Qtr results), the revenue of RM57 mil would translates into about RM2.5 mil profit. Now, is the loss of the RM2.5 mil operation profit looks significant? hmm....it will be only about 10% if the full year 2011 profit is RM25 mil. In addition, the factory in Rojana (which already been badly hit) is smaller one compared to the factory in High Tech and just hope that the damage to High Tech would not be as severe as the one in Rojana. It would be a plus point if the Thai orders can be directed to Malaysia operations for the next 3 months while restoring the operations in Thai.

I do not assuming any loss of the machine for the above as all machine are adequately covered by insurance.

Do you think the numbers make sense?

Just pray hard that the flood would be not prolong and the affected areas would be recovered soon...

Good luck to all non-interested ENG shareholders....

Posted by chong > 2011-10-15 01:13 | Report Abuse

Alex11, I believed in you. Your analysis does really make sense. I already bought plenty yesterday as there was panic selling & a golden opportunity came along to collect cheaply. Monday going to grab more surely if the price sticks at 1.80 to 1.90.

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-15 02:29 | Report Abuse

me too. i bought some early at 2.2, 2.0, 1.9x. Until now i never give up even a piece of share. Big win will only left to person who dare to take risk.

Posted by chong > 2011-10-15 04:33 | Report Abuse

Yes, no risk no gain...the bigger the risk the higher the gain.

Posted by hoongthegreat > 2011-10-15 09:27 | Report Abuse

Just look at the Bangkok weather forecast. Thunderstorm and rain predicted for the next two weeks and it will couple with lunar high tide. Tropical cyclone is heading that way. It is not about the problem of financial arrangement, it is more on reassesing the worth of the whole takeover process.

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-15 10:50 | Report Abuse

ya agree with u, hoongthegreat. Risks: abortion or price reduction (may be 2.3?). But i still suggest buy call for those who want to buy at price 1.7x - 1.8x. if sucess, got 0.7-0.8 profit, if fail then 0.3 (open then just drop between 1.5-1.6) lose. 50%-50% bet now.

Posted by chong > 2011-10-16 23:47 | Report Abuse

Thailand's government has expressed confidence that the capital Bangkok will escape the worst of the country's current flooding.

Agriculture Minister Theera Wongsamut said there were "good signs" that water levels on the city's key Chao Phraya river would rise no higher.

So we could see better pricing now perhaps. So I guess that the time to buy is now. Once flood subsided, price is no more cheap lol.

Posted by Blackangel2011 > 2011-10-17 00:24 | Report Abuse

The company esos will be expired on 22/10 . There still 4millions over shares to wait for exercise. Their exercise price are range from 1.00 ++ to 2.80 . If most of the esos are exercise, hopefully their boss would not let them down,let their staff to get 2.50 home,in another way ,if esos exercise are less ,that means their boss can save over millions riggit to pay out.

Anyway, I truly believe when the ideal come out to buy out , definitely is not just a overnight thinking ,it must be a long and carefully consideration before to go ahead. Unless something too big to come out make them really can't take it. otherwise , sure they would not easily to let the deal off !

Posted by chong > 2011-10-17 05:57 | Report Abuse

So if the deal is on it's worth at least $2.30 [price reduction] that means it's still worth to buy even at $2 ha ha ha

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-17 08:07 | Report Abuse

I think all of the people gave their valuable comment and feedback already. My final personal view point, at situation, can consider risky. But i still willing to take portion of my bullet (not all) to bet this 0.7 profit.No point for those buy on price 2.2 or more then only throw the share at this moment. If really want to throw, better throw early before (play short term). Or I suggest if any opportunity (buy other share) can get same profit like this but less risky, please go ahead. Finally, please ready yourself or make sure you are afford to face this abortion if any, otherwise you should not be here.

Posted by mancon > 2011-10-17 08:43 | Report Abuse

Who is so generous to buy from you at $2-30 ?

Posted by carries > 2011-10-17 10:59 | Report Abuse

Even if the flood is over, it could be weeks before the full extent of the damage can be assessed. Insurance claims submitted etc. And months before operations will return to normal.......

I would suggest caution ........

Posted by Blackangel2011 > 2011-10-17 11:26 | Report Abuse

dont forget the Thai operation is just part of the contribution , the HDD business has been affected recently , and this is aware by the offeror ,all the productions in Thai maybe divert part of it to Malaysia or other factory in others country to maximise the operation in order to reduce rely on Thai operation for short term .try to look at the bright side , of course this is for those still hold or intend to buy .

Any pessimistic views sure are from those who have dump and have no intention to go in .

Still the same words , of the offeror is very keen to privitise it, this is very good chance to success ,cause sure will be accepted by the most of the non controlling shareholders.

Finance support can be from other bank or part of it or from own support ,who knows ?? business is for long term ....

Posted by carries > 2011-10-17 12:30 | Report Abuse

Fair Value cut from RM2.50 to RM1.45
(There must be a good reason why this was done....)

I think that those playing this counter must be extra cautious .....

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-18 09:16 | Report Abuse

i think hard to down below 165 unless more bad news. now should be sideway...

Posted by carries > 2011-10-18 13:57 | Report Abuse

"Significant Loss" for Q4.
It would be prudent to exercise extra caution .......

Posted by Ad Edward > 2011-10-18 14:47 | Report Abuse

buy harder...win faster...hahahah

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-18 14:48 | Report Abuse

more bad news come oredi. let the price drop a bit then start collect.

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-18 17:03 | Report Abuse

ya really learn something. But nvm, let me hold the knife, i ready for it as i told before.

Posted by chai63 > 2011-10-18 17:31 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow can buy some since it so cheap,

Posted by stockoperator > 2011-10-18 18:56 | Report Abuse

this is a game of rich. This counter is famous for speculation. Think as shareholder then u will find a way out. In the end shareholder will not hv to fork out a cent to privatise. If u study the price there is systematic plan driving price down. Why? Think as shareholder ya.

Posted by stockoperator > 2011-10-18 19:07 | Report Abuse

Buy at 160-165? then 140-145? Important thing is holding position ya. This is shareholder last shot at the counter. They are playing Big. After privatised, no more.

Posted by Stephenlee > 2011-10-18 20:25 | Report Abuse

ENG closed at RM1.54 nearly a $ from the offering price. With more bad news here and there do you think the deal will go thru?

Posted by stockoperator > 2011-10-18 20:40 | Report Abuse

Do u see any coffee shop closed business becoz of floods?? Why privatised at the first price? No choice. Ask Hitachi n Seagate.

Posted by stockoperator > 2011-10-18 21:32 | Report Abuse

Dear TEH, i start buying at yr recommended price today Rm160-65. TQ And i would follow yr advice to wait for Rm140-45. I guess yr next avg price is Rm120-25 right? Very nice. U see U must always have money to BUY. Always.

Posted by stockoperator > 2011-10-18 21:49 | Report Abuse

if u want to buy stocks Be patients. There is always panics selling here and there. What is better opportunity to buy when there is panic sellings? I hope nobody sells me at Rm140-45.

Posted by stockoperator > 2011-10-19 00:11 | Report Abuse

In market it is damned hard to earn 10 cents. But it is easy to earn 50 cents or a dollars.

Posted by 8stars > 2011-10-19 00:56 | Report Abuse

How fast can they be back to normal operation wld depends on whether they have a Disaster Recovery Plan (DRP)? Based on news, it seems the damage is substantial and that wld meant that all their equipment need to be replaced in order to be back to normal production. One can presumed that they shld have Material Damage Insurance cover BUT how long wld it takes to clean up the mess and bring in the new equipment? Cld take up to 3 to 6 months or even more if the equipment is specially made for their type of business and that also depends on availablity of standby equipment. During this period their alternatives is to do it at another place. Expenses continue to be paid eventhough production is stopped until the factory is fixed. There wld be additional expenses to be incurred in restoring/setting up again which wld eventually increase their cost of working. So that means loss of profit plus additional increase in cost of working. How much wld it be then, which wld affect their Profit if this is drag longer? At least the current quarter wld be affected or may be longer. However, all is not loss in the long-term, just some Profit. The situation cld be more optimistic IF they have also a LOSS OF PROFIT insurance besides their Material Damage Insurance. Then their consequential losses is covered ie Net Profit + Standing Charges(Expenses) + Additional Increased in Cost of Working. Hope this help.

Posted by stockoperator > 2011-10-19 07:35 | Report Abuse

in takeover, we only talk NAV So it is no more profit and growth and prospect.

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-19 08:07 | Report Abuse

ganasai feels "ganasai" or gameover? No!! I willing to avg. Please panic sell more. Not long period i am in stock market. But face hard situation like sunway share drop from 2.8 to 1.67. Will i feel panic and sell when price below 2? No!! I bought. I ready for lose but make sure i still have bullet to balance it.

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-19 08:59 | Report Abuse

Thanks for your advice. Of course I have bullet as my FD also. Stock is only for those people got spare money. Never borrow or use daily money to buy share.

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-19 09:15 | Report Abuse

when crisis come, people feel panic, but I feel happy. when 1997 can return?

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-19 09:49 | Report Abuse

I never suggest people collect or throw. i still young in market. Whatever strategic is quite depend your own situation. Some people like to collect on crisis then sell on high, some people like to throw share simply because for safety, some people like to buy on high then sell on high, some people still dreaming follow on high...

Posted by stockoperator > 2011-10-19 09:53 | Report Abuse

lets assume thai operation is no more.Simple. So no discussion on Thai anymore. NAV is still abv Rm2 after minus 4th Q loss plus insurance claim.

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-19 10:14 | Report Abuse

Caution, collect or throw is really depend on your own. If you really have long term ability to keep it, believe the company futures compare with other competitor, believe Dato is a good business man and wont simply abort (or some reason make him abort in no way), then why not buy in small small portion now? Sometimes u must treat your stock as your wife, if u believe your wife is good wife and treat u good in long term.

Posted by carries > 2011-10-19 10:26 | Report Abuse

i agree with ganasai's analogy however, to be realistic, you have to remember that this takeover is going to have to be financed in some way .....

When a financial institution provides finance they need security and when the risk is heightened or when the value of the underlying security has diminished in some way, they will require a larger spread ......

Do the math and then make your own decision ......

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-19 10:30 | Report Abuse

ya correct, but from my viewpoint not only privatisation. I told early before. Are u afford if privatisation failed? Are u still believe Eng is still a good stock, good futures and undervalued even privatisation failed? If not, please throw now. no point for long term or short term. math is not everything. Stock up or down is depend on you believe or not.

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-19 11:12 | Report Abuse

my theory at this moment just suitable apply for long term. Play at your own risk. As i collect sunway share when price drop below 2 is because it is a good stock. If you believe company value, u wont scare any popup issue. Unless the company value change (then run first). People collect share because for money, i feel that i collect share because i appreciate their value. Buy Gold? i never buy the death thing. I really a ganasai person. that's why i called myself ganasai.

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-19 11:16 | Report Abuse

ya i really a small player and young. But i dont like follow high, what call overvalued stock. This is because i lack of deep technical analysis. I scare "buy high sell on high".

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-19 11:44 | Report Abuse

Another point, now whole market can consider still bear. whether should buy in now for long term especially for those buy in big portion, please justify yourself. But i still will collect every time the stock drop 10%. Not all my bullet lah of course, haha may be just 200 shares only, who know how much i bought? I will kept it secret.

Posted by stockoperator > 2011-10-19 11:52 | Report Abuse

Never go for safe haven

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-19 12:00 | Report Abuse

Ok, good, please sell. I will waiting at this price.

Posted by stockoperator > 2011-10-19 12:14 | Report Abuse

we will c what happens to those who park money at fd USD treasury
In mkt lets hv abit of conviction.Will u?

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-19 12:20 | Report Abuse

I never said i am a pro. I said "I will" does not means sure i will buy every time 10% drop. Because i will changes based on situation. I think this place is open for anybody to share out the comment no matter right or wrong? So dont treat me comment is right and follow.

Posted by carries > 2011-10-19 13:03 | Report Abuse

I am an auntie who is admittedly also a small time investor without experience ....

That said, i agree with richard that it would be prudent to be cautious when playing this counter, especially now ....
(Note : i have not played this counter and never will but this discussion was interesting so i was following it)

I believe richard is an experienced investor and he is just sharing his knowledge with us, which is one of the reasons why alot of us read these blogs ..... we all want to learn .....

In hindsight we will all be able to see who was being brave and who was being foolhardy .... until that time .... it's anyone's guess ......

Posted by stockoperator > 2011-10-19 13:32 | Report Abuse

In the recession hit industry it is best to destroy and rebuild.

Posted by stockoperator > 2011-10-19 13:37 | Report Abuse

U must hv general/basic conditions right. To invest/to strategie it is all down to money management and conviction.

Posted by ganasai > 2011-10-19 13:48 | Report Abuse

Thanks for your comment, Richard. Appreciate it.

Posted by stockoperator > 2011-10-19 14:40 | Report Abuse

if everybody keeps thinking the fair value is Rm1.20 U wont buy but sell.