Posted by stockraider > 2019-04-04 17:03 | Report Abuse

Chivo,

Your think on opensys is actually day dreaming or sound fact findings back by proper research with deep analysis like Raider sapnrg Tp Rm 3.00 loh.....!!

Posted by Choivo Capital > Apr 4, 2019 4:29 PM | Report Abuse

I think Opensys should be a 300-500m co in 5-7 years. So.

No need 10 bagger for me. A few of these ill be happy d.

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > 2019-04-04 17:22 | Report Abuse

This is why I use terminal value in terms of business sense. How does one evaluate growth? Its different for every industry, but let me try an example here for opensys:

1. It cannot expand beyond Malaysia.
2. It has 80% of total market in Malaysia.
3. That current market cap including maintenance is 100 million and 10 million net profit.
4. It has not shown any diversification into different organic markets.
Investing is about possibilities, if we use very generous projections, the terminal value will probably arrive at 200 million yearly revenue and 20 million net profits. That is 100% market saturation and relaxed everything into cash recycling machines. The most people will pay for a business like that is 300 million, using general market comps.

If you want to use stockraider hyper imagination and qqq3 exuberance, any number is possible I guess...

>>>>
However, i think the price is good enough, given the coming growth. I expect it to grow a lot in the next 5 years. and then kind of stop.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-04-04 17:32 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Apr 4, 2019 1:55 PM | Report Abuse
I would not accuse of KC of being a terminal value guy..........KC is a strictly PE guy and for that, he has never, not once bought a really good high quality company.
Similar to OTB who has never bought a single share which does not eventually collapse.

KC strictly PE guy?

That is why you have never comprehend any of my articles, and just quack quack quack.

Tell me, when we put money in a stock, must we always buy a "really good high quality company"?

Or should we hope to get the best return from our investment, whether we buy a great company or otherwise?

Oh, I just ask for fun, for I know you just can't comprehend what I ask, nor you know anything about investment, despite claiming that you are an accountant, but just know how to quack quack quack.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-04-04 17:32 | Report Abuse

Of course if u marry u expect everlasting mah...!!

The same buy share loh....!!

If u expect 1st 5 yr married very happy, then why not go for it leh ??

Who knows ?? U want 30 yrs....40 yrs who knows so long ??
We are not god mah....!!

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 4, 2019 5:22 PM | Report Abuse

This is why I use terminal value in terms of business sense. How does one evaluate growth? Its different for every industry, but let me try an example here for opensys:

1. It cannot expand beyond Malaysia.
2. It has 80% of total market in Malaysia.
3. That current market cap including maintenance is 100 million and 10 million net profit.
4. It has not shown any diversification into different organic markets.
Investing is about possibilities, if we use very generous projections, the terminal value will probably arrive at 200 million yearly revenue and 20 million net profits. That is 100% market saturation and relaxed everything into cash recycling machines. The most people will pay for a business like that is 300 million, using general market comps.

If you want to use stockraider hyper imagination and qqq3 exuberance, any number is possible I guess...

>>>>
However, i think the price is good enough, given the coming growth. I expect it to grow a lot in the next 5 years. and then kind of stop.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-04-04 17:34 | Report Abuse

And why you continue to attack OTB, while he has never responded you for so long?

You must be jealous that your master now realized that who is a true friend, and who is a villain who has caused him to lose more than RM100m this two years from your persuasion to sailang and margin jaks and Sendai.

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > 2019-04-04 17:36 | Report Abuse

My simple terminal value for gkent.
1. Railway business in Malaysia is apparently going to be a 100 billion market, with railways in East Malaysia planning, ecrl, lrt3, KTM double track etc etc. Gkent has won lrt3 11.8 billion, 1b mrt2 etc. It is also currently bidding for Singapore mrt line contract.
2. Hospital and clinic construction under budget 2019 is 10.8 billion, of which gkent has 500 million in putrajaya and Selangor.
3. Gkent has order book around 100 million water treatment plant jobs, which is a 738 million under budget 2019.

The market size is far larger compared to opensys, so the growth possibilities also become far larger.

Of course I note the word possibility, because it is silly to give a fix intrinsic value, as businesses never always work out exactly like how you want it to.

There is a bearish case (choivo) which he doesnt see any value in a company like.
There is a big case which I see in the value.

In the end, arguing doesn't matter because only when the results come in someone will stop commenting.

But the reasons behind the investment should always be of some value.

I try to find the fast small fish in a big ocean, not the big slow fish in the pond.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-04-04 20:17 | Report Abuse

I think opensys is a fast small fish, while Gkent is a fast mid fish loh......!!

Both have reasonable compelling investment preposition mah...!!

Gkent & opensys are still swimming in Msian pond loh...!!

Yes water meter Gkent has been exporting for last 30 yrs...but relative contribution to gkent in terms of profitability is still small loh..!!

If gkent can just rely on water metre alone for outperforming growth, then 15 yrs ago gkent which only had water meters sector will already achieved, outperformance and thus no need to rely on infra construction sector loh....!!
The fact is not true loh....!!


Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 4, 2019 5:36 PM | Report Abuse

My simple terminal value for gkent.
1. Railway business in Malaysia is apparently going to be a 100 billion market, with railways in East Malaysia planning, ecrl, lrt3, KTM double track etc etc. Gkent has won lrt3 11.8 billion, 1b mrt2 etc. It is also currently bidding for Singapore mrt line contract.
2. Hospital and clinic construction under budget 2019 is 10.8 billion, of which gkent has 500 million in putrajaya and Selangor.
3. Gkent has order book around 100 million water treatment plant jobs, which is a 738 million under budget 2019.

The market size is far larger compared to opensys, so the growth possibilities also become far larger.

Of course I note the word possibility, because it is silly to give a fix intrinsic value, as businesses never always work out exactly like how you want it to.

There is a bearish case (choivo) which he doesnt see any value in a company like.
There is a big case which I see in the value.

In the end, arguing doesn't matter because only when the results come in someone will stop commenting.

But the reasons behind the investment should always be of some value.

I try to find the fast small fish in a big ocean, not the big slow fish in the pond.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-04 20:26 | Report Abuse

raider so QL is big fat fish ah?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 01:15 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 01:32 | Report Abuse

look at this choi...........want to take other people money and put into Opensys...........I think more regulations and more enforcements are needed in Malaysia.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 01:58 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-05 06:58 | Report Abuse

Correct lah education should be free mah! At least don't charge so high la! Or else what's the difference between you and the blood sipping fund managers leh??!!! If you can guarantee 100% return and you charge bloody high fees then different case! But you cannot, so at least give some discount!

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-05 08:29 | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by Fortune Bull > Apr 4, 2019 8:57 PM | Report Abuse

Dude, seriously, Raider is just super promoter with no record to show! He promoted so many stocks but all fail! Only Hengyuan standout but it was Tan Sri Koon who cook it all the way up!
>>>



By promoting TP of HY 45, majority of his supporters were swimming naked too just like raider in HY.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-04-05 09:33 | Report Abuse

As usual this 3iii never admit he is wrong loh...!!
Ask lah this strategic question ?

Remember :

"Too further elaborate unavoidable mistake, u ask yourself why 3iii did not sold padini at Rm 8.00, now it is only Rm 3.60 loh..!!
Pls don tell me not selling Padini at Rm 8.00 is not a mistake loh...be honest like raider don simply give excuse mah...!! "

IN REAL LIFE U MUST BE PREPARE FOR MISTAKE AND LUCKILYY RAIDER WAS READY AT THAT TIME LOH..!
But u must look at the overall winners of 80% to 350% compare to a few minority losers of 16% mah...!!

U GOT A PUSING PUSING WITHOUT INTEGRITY ANSWER FROM 3iii LOH AS BELOW[

3iii COMMENT;
I think Padini rose to a high of 5+ or 6. Today it is 3.60.

Raider as usual will tell everyone he has the foresight to sell at 5+ when it was high.

My humble self do not claim to have this special ability except in certain situations.
Let us look back at history. History may not repeat exactly the same but it rhymes.

So, a few years back, Padini was 3+ and due to competition and threat of GST it dropped to around 1.6. By same logical deduction, raider would have cleverly cashed out at 3+ then. I admit I do not have this uncanny ability.

But at 1.6, Padini's DY was around 7% during that period.

I am not the smartest in this forum. I buy my stocks cheap. I stay with good quality growth companies (the selection criteria are stringent). I sell rarely, even when the stock maybe overpriced. I am to capture the long term gains that the stock offers, ignoring the short term exuberances. I love my good quality stocks more when they are sold down (raider may feel this is weird :-) but it should be obvious to him after having trolled my posts for 1 decadez!). I am long term very greedy. Compounding is my friend. After a long period of successful investing, compounding is truly the most powerful force indeed in the later periods of your long term investing. Those who have not placed themselves riding on this wonderful compounding phenomenon will not realise how wonderful it is.

Of course, though I may not sell when my stocks are overpriced, I never buy them when they are expensive. This would have been a cardinal sin in my investing to do so.

The biggest challenge in my investing is MYSELF. Despite raider's unsavoury remarks, this should be obvious. My heroes today in this forum are: Philip, KC. As for the others, I learn from them too (both their successes, failures and their mistakes.)
In investing, learning is life long.

CONCLUSION EVEN IF RAIDER CAN ACCEPT 3iii WITHOUT REMORSE EXPLANATION ON PADINI THEN WHAT MAKE 3iii COMMENT ON HENGYUAN ANY CREDIBILITY LEH ??

ACTUALLY BOTH PADINI AND HENGYUAN CASE VERY SIMILIAR LOH...IT JUST THAT RAIDER HAD LARI KUAT KUAT ON HENGYUAN, WHEREAS 3iii STILL HOLDING ON PADINI AT BIG OPPORTUNITY LOSSES LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-04-05 10:18 | Report Abuse

Sapnrg IS A STOCK IN TRANSFORMATION towards Success & Growth loh..!!

STAGE ONE
THE IDEA ....EGG STAGE . This is when the corporate exercise is held with a right issue loh..!! This stage Sapnrg share price is at the lowest 25.5 sen....This is where deep value margin of safety and contraian investor make their move loh...!!

STAGE TWO
IDEA TO REDUCE DEBT AND TRANSFORM TO DEBT FREE BY SELLING ASSETS AND PAYING OFF BORROWINGS...CATERPILLAR STAGE . They sold 50% of their oilfield to bring a very strong partner OMV this give added confidence the share price slowly recover above Rm 0.30 loh...!!
We are still at this stage the hurdle here will be around Rm 0.50 to Rm 0.80 to clear this little caterpillar & usually this is a stage of alot of turnaround investor will jump in when they see big sign of improvement coming loh...!!

Usually a big percentage of calvin tan sifu and raider followers will jump in here to reap the big & safe opportunity to make monies on these stocks loh....!!

STAGE THREE
FINAL CLEARANCE OF DEBT. FINAL ACCUMULATION OF CHEAP UNWANTED SHARES SHUNNED BY THE PUBLIC. ONLY INSIDERS KNOW. ONLY INSIDERS ARE BUYING
...THIS IS THE COCOON STAGE WHEN EVERYTHING LOOKS VERY STILL AND QUIET.

COCOON LOOKS DEAD TO OUTSIDERS BUT INSIDE THE COCOON THE CATERPILLAR IS NOW CHANGING FORM

This cocoon stage u will see huge contract wins something close to Rm 30 billion and they will start planning increasing the oil & gas extraction from the huge oil field by factor of 4x, but profit is not an explosive level yet bcos jobs execution has not gone full blast. At this stage sapnrg price range is from rm 0.65 to Rm 1.00 loh...!! Many savvy instituition will start to pay heed and notice upcoming big business prospect coming loh...!!

STAGE FOUR
BEAUTIFUL BUTTERFLY EMERGING FROM COCOON
NEW EVERYONE CAN SEE THE BUTTERFLY.
This is the time when SAPNRG is the most beautiful it is like a butterfly but Sapnrg is so good it can stink like a bee where the target of Rm 3 to Rm 5 billion profit TP start to shine loh..!!

Sapnrg share price will breakout like an explosive atomic bomb clearing Rm 1.00, Rm 2.00 and Rm 3.00 alot of instuition start to buy as sapnrg emerging to a bluechip with mkt capitalization of Rm 40b to Rm 70b.

EVERYONE LOVES the Butterfly (NOT THE UGLY CATERPILLAR STAGE WHEN ALL SHUNNED IT)
(NOT THE COCOON STAGE WHERE PEOPLE THOUGHt IT MIGHT GO INTO PN17)

NOW EVERYONE GOES GAGA when the butterfly emerges reaping share price Rm 1.00 to Rm 3.00

BUT TOO LATE!! For value investor to chase ??
3iii will start promoting here saying this profit got moat like he have done for Padini at Rm 8.00 and Nestle Rm 148.00 loh..!!
But raider & calvin will feel relieve & quiet with big satifaction for job well done loh...!!

PRICE HAS ALREADY SKYROCKETED!!!...It may break raider tp Rm 3.00 to move to striking distance of Rm 5.00 to Rm 6.00 loh..!!

SO WILL STILL CHASE AND PAY HIGH HIGH PRICES!! People like 3iii & Philip will start to takeover saying PE 30x to 60x not high bcos of growth & moat prospect loh!. New term like high terminal value will come in too loh..!!

LIKE BUYING ANNJOO OVER RM3.00, OR HENGYUAN OVER RM19.00 OR MASTEEL OVER RM1.80 OR PRESTAR OVER RM1.40 OR DAYANG OVER RM1.70 OR CARIMIN OVER 90 SEN

WHY CHASE SO HIGH LEH?
THE SECRET IS TO BUY AT CATERPILLAR STAGE WHEN IT IS STILL UGLY AND CHEAP

FOLLOW CALVIN AND RAIDER BUY AT BOTTOM AND BUY TURNAROUND STAGE LAH!!!
U MAKE MORE JUST BEING QUIET LOH....!!

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-05 10:48 | Report Abuse

The moment raider appeared yesterday, he started to pollute this thread.

Raider, Please, allow others to have a good discussion undisturbed by your promotions.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-04-05 10:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 11:12 | Report Abuse

Philips, Jaks..........its not my exuberance only. Big institutions agree with me.

Total addressable market ( TAM ) and profits too huge to ignore.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 11:20 | Report Abuse

Philips..........I like your approach to the market.Its Total Addressable market, TAM, first of all.

But Jaks vs Gkent..........lets have a friendly competition, end of year.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 11:23 | Report Abuse

Philips..........I like your approach to the market.Its Total Addressable market, TAM, first of all.

We are not value investors. We are growth investors. Its participating in the growth of companies.........

So, its IPP ( a sure thing )........vs largest railway contractor in SEA ( a dream of the directors )

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > 2019-04-05 11:31 | Report Abuse

Every type of investing is about finding value. Why pigeonhole. You mean growth investing is not about finding value? Then what have we been doing here all the time?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 11:48 | Report Abuse

people go to wet market they want to get value for their money....

people want to invest, they want to be successful.......they need to have big dreams, and grit....and of course, knowledge and mind set.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 11:59 | Report Abuse

(Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 5, 2019 11:31 AM | Report Abuse

finding value?
==========

value? A back of envelop calculation can tell u its great value.....1.2 GW plant. US$ 2 billion investments.

30% is how much dividends?

Did u tell the CFO that Desa says he made a mistake in selling Jaks.

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > 2019-04-05 13:09 | Report Abuse

Nope. I happen to agree with his reasoning. You might need to put you back of the envelope to the front.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2019-04-05 13:49 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 14:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 14:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 14:20 | Report Abuse

(Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 5, 2019 1:09 PM | Report Abuse

Nope. I happen to agree with his reasoning. You might need to put you back of the envelope to the front.
==========

so Gkent vs Jaks, end of the year....is it on?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-05 14:24 | Report Abuse

I bought pop corn already

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-04-05 14:28 | Report Abuse

The books are listed on my page, anyone can go and buy or download them for free and read it.

They teach you much better than i can.

Or go youtube watch bruce greenwald teach value investing.

My time, however, is not free. Because my time is my life. Every second we all die a little bit.

I don't give away my life for free or for nothing. Feel free to provide value equivalent to the fee i normally charge.

Why would anyone want to buy my time?

Well, instead of spending roughly 1000 hours reading, i can try to give you the essence within those 3 hours, or the 2 hours a month in a personalized manner, walk through your portfolio etc etc.

Not worth it? That's fine, i would not pay for it either.

Because id rather buy the books and spend the 1000 hours reading them as they teach way better than i can.


====
Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Apr 5, 2019 6:58 AM | Report Abuse

Correct lah education should be free mah! At least don't charge so high la! Or else what's the difference between you and the blood sipping fund managers leh??!!! If you can guarantee 100% return and you charge bloody high fees then different case! But you cannot, so at least give some discount!

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-04-05 14:32 | Report Abuse

Well Phillip,

i hope you're right, it matters little to me either way. I have no skin in game.

If they do get the SG rail project, well, that's the easiest way to prove their ability.

Even gamuda can't get.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-04-05 14:38 | Report Abuse

Raider,

I don't do adventurous investing or speculating.

You may have also read my timecom and rcecap research.

You say leh?

====
Posted by stockraider > Apr 4, 2019 5:03 PM | Report Abuse

Chivo,

Your think on opensys is actually day dreaming or sound fact findings back by proper research with deep analysis like Raider sapnrg Tp Rm 3.00 loh.....!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 14:40 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 > Apr 5, 2019 2:24 PM | Report Abuse

I bought pop corn already
========


more than pop corns, I hope

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-05 14:48 | Report Abuse

Choivo you are absolutely right, time is your life! Time is worth than money to me! I will think about that! I never thought about that before!

Posted by i3Value > 2019-04-05 14:49 | Report Abuse

qqq3 vs Philip. Jaks vs Gkent. I buy dried cuttlefish watch show.

No need include Choivo. His RCE sure lose. Confirm. No need waste time.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-05 14:50 | Report Abuse

Include lah ! More interesting see how a young man go against unkers

Posted by i3Value > 2019-04-05 15:03 | Report Abuse

What happened to Connie555 article: (Choivo Capital) Who Am I? Evil Or Angel?

Deleted already! Comments too hot to handle?

Why everytime got people threaten report Jonathan Choi Yi Kit to SC, the blog will get deleted? Last time was Philip want report Jon, blog deleted. Now Connie want report Jon, blog deleted.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 15:04 | Report Abuse

unkers think, put other people money in Opensys needs more regulations and enforcements.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-05 15:35 | Report Abuse

>>>>
Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Apr 5, 2019 1:49 PM | Report Abuse

Ans :
I measure my performance on the amount of money I made from KLSE.
I do not measure my performance on the amount of talking cock like qqq3.

qqq3, you jump 10 times, you also will never be better than me.
It is a fact and not a lie here.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/116430.jsp
My ROI is 50.6% gain in < 4 months.
Definitely qqq3 cannot achieve this type of excellent result.
qqq3 is good in talking cock and telling lies in I3.

Thank you.
Ooi

>>>>>>


My ROI is 50.6% gain in < 4 months.

What does this return means in the long run in a person's investing?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-04-05 17:08 | Report Abuse

Chivo,

Raider feel all your pick are quite sound loh....!!

Especially opensys a solid counter with PE about 10x only loh...!!

The use of cash is here to stay for a very long time mah...!!
Everytime i want real hard cash i queue at maybank atm & wait for a very long time loh...!! Why so many people want to waste time queue for cash to get to the atm leh ??

Just imagine u go to the hawker centre u buy wanton mee, buy vegetable from ahfah or u pay angpow during new year or people getting marry, u all will use hard cash loh....!!

Very few will dare to use e wallet & credit card loh....!!
Why malu mah, u want to let people immediately know u pay him rm 10 angpow meh ?? U quietly slot in the cash in and angpow packet mah..!

Thats why angpow...with cash inside is very practical loh...!!

Posted by Choivo Capital > Apr 5, 2019 2:38 PM | Report Abuse

Raider,

I don't do adventurous investing or speculating.

You may have also read my timecom and rcecap research.

You say leh?

====
Posted by stockraider > Apr 4, 2019 5:03 PM | Report Abuse

Chivo,

Your think on opensys is actually day dreaming or sound fact findings back by proper research with deep analysis like Raider sapnrg Tp Rm 3.00 loh.....!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-05 17:20 | Report Abuse

Philips...........more likely CFO sold to buy back under another name, not for tax reasons but to give himself flexibility in future.

He probably knows he cannot wait anymore as there are too many enquiries from the big boys already...........Andy probably ask him to do it now, to try to hold down the surge.

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > 2019-04-05 17:52 | Report Abuse

qqq3, I'm getting bored of this. If you really on , do it properly 5 years, go to longbets.org and do a proper bet. register and do it nicely.

Last time choivo also scared cos he say no money, you got?

Fyi, I dont do short term trading, I have no idea how a stock is going to do in 3 months, 4 months, 1 year. 3+ years onwards, I have a pretty clear opinion on gkent, with its MRT2 handover date, and LRT3 claim progress.

If you are simply using sentiment and your 70% completion of IPP to do your 1 year analysis, I have no idea how the market will react.

I admit I don't have much skill in trading, never have. Never will.

Investing wise long term, I'm pretty ok.
>>>>>
so Gkent vs Jaks, end of the year....is it on?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-05 17:53 | Report Abuse

Do it lah

No money involved

Scare what ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-05 17:55 | Report Abuse

Normal time talk loud loud, When come to accepting challenge then cerita panjang panjang

Now we know qqq3 got big balls

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-05 17:56 | Report Abuse

And Superman got tiny balls

Posted by i3Value > 2019-04-05 17:59 | Report Abuse

Wakakaka! Icon self appointed organiser cum referree. Let the fun begin

Posted by probability > 2019-04-05 18:06 | Report Abuse

we should bring more people into the competition...

raider with his sapura

3ii with his petdag

calvin with his whatever...

all should voice their ultimate 1 stock for end year time frame

............

qqq3 please organize

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-05 18:11 | Report Abuse

And I will bring along my Jaks wb

Since I said it can potentially go from 64 Sen to RM3.78

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-05 18:12 | Report Abuse

What should we call it ?

Alternative Portfolio Competition ?

Posted by i3Value > 2019-04-05 18:13 | Report Abuse

This is heavyweight category.

3iii conservative portfolio no chance to win. Put under different category. Single digit growth - featherweight category. With choivo