CIMB Securities, one of only three research houses covering the stock, on Friday warned of a 30% decline in Genetec’s earnings for the year ending June 30, 2025 (FY2025) because of delays in new order wins from one of the automotive manufacturers adopting a more cautious approach to capacity expansion. The research house downgraded the stock to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’ and lowered its target price to RM1.60 from RM3.70.
If Donald Trump win the next US presidential election genetec will go below 60c. If Kamala Harris win then you will see hope in genetec. 50/50. Place your bet
Announcing dividend as a last ditch effort so that institute investors hold onto this rubbish? Hah. This company has been taking people for a ride by hyping on Tesla’s bullshit as well. Nothing lasts forever. The one client they have is struggling now that the market sees past its hype. Numbers don’t lie. The founder has been taking his profits out of this sinking ship, while story telling the market to hodl. Do your own due d and research. It’s his modus operandi given what he has done in the past. Take away that Tesla hoolabaloo and what’s left for the company? Nothing of significance. This stock ain’t worth 1/10 what it is today. Enjoy the ride!
owner selling EPF trading out only small fry like me keep averaging should have just cut at 1.40 instead i go average at 1.40 someone said sour? my average now 1.80, yes lost 80 cent per share i sour like chewing whole lemon
Not only the managing director took the minority shareholders for a ride but he also hoodwinked all the various funds that invested in genetec. As early as Q1 he already was planning for a LTIP while CIMB was still still promoting the share with tp RM3.60 and he subtly started disposing his shares as early as Mar 2024. In the recent EGM held on 29/8/2024 the BOD approved the LTIP. Rumor has it that it'll be priced at not more than 40sen. What the MD sold assuming he sold yesterday @RM1.00, he can now buy back 2.5x the qty he disposed since early tis year at a much lower price via LTIP.
The share price has crashed 74% from the high 3 years ago. Clear blood in the streets. Still a falling knife.
Question is has GENETEC business model permanently broken? If not, this could be an opportunity. I think nobody knows the real answer.
But the reward to risk payoffs look good.
So, the logical action is to bet small so that if it doesn't pan out, it doesn't matter, but if it does pan out, then , this one win will offset. The key is small constant bets in similar situations.
The risks are real, the recovery power weaker than say PBBANK or S&P500. For maximum benefits, need to hold out for at least 2-3 years after it finds bottom. Right now still no bottom yet.
Mr dividend thks n no thks. There r better investment grade stks to consider rather than take small bets on genetec n hope against hope. Anyway all the best n good luck.
Hi sniper, I certainly agree there are better investment grade stocks, most of my portfolio are like this. One of the big problems I have with GENETEC is why it didn't guide its earnings better, and explain better why its EPS YoY dropped to 1.32 sen or 42% fall. Instead, it took the lazy approach, and dismiss saying it changed its reporting period to cover 15 months. Investors should rightly sell when the company is so lazy!
And look at the explanation for the lower QoQ. "Revenue of the Group decreased by RM19.0 million or 27.0% to RM51.5 million for the current quarter under review as compared to RM70.5 million recorded in the preceding quarter ended 31 March 2024. The Group recorded a profit before taxation of RM7.6 million, a decrease of RM11.5 million or 60.2% as compared to a profit before taxation of RM19.1 million for the immediate preceding quarter. The decrease in profit before taxation was mainly due to lower revenue recorded.". ---> That's basically saying the obvious.
And look at the low quality narrative under "Prospect" - "PROSPECT. For the financial period under review, the Group continues to deliver stable performance in a high-interest rate environment and against a moderately soft economic backdrop worldwide. The Group remains positive but is cautious as we see major industry players in the automotive industry taking the monitoring approach, primarily caused by policy uncertainty as a result of the U.S. Presidential election coming November 2024, macroeconomic uncertainties including inflation and interest rates policies and global geopolitical environment. The Group expect more certainty in the industry after the U.S. Presidential Election. As a business, Genetec has weathered various economic cycles since its inception in 1997 and have always come out stronger. Under the current business environment, our team continues to be on the ground in our client’s facilities, busy supporting our clients with their improvement initiatives and new developments, as our clients focuses on improving yields for long term production efficiency. As a pioneer in specialised automated assembly line manufacturer, our team is working closely with our clients on conceptualising the manufacturing process, to automate most of the currently labour-intensive processes. We see huge opportunity when our clients start to ramp up production to meet demand. Further, retaining and growing our share of wallet with long-term clients has and continues to remain a priority as we look for opportunity to broaden our product offering. At the same time, it remains the Group’s strategy to broaden our clientele base and product offering. We are always in the lookout for new opportunities in new industries and new markets. The Group continues to focus on retaining talent – to retain the experience and technical expertise of our people. The Group recognises that Genetec’s strength lies with our people and we take this seriously as the Group continue to invest in our people - to train, retain, and reward our team. "
So, if investors have high fundamental expectations on the stock, I agree they should sell. 😁
Based on last qtr earnings (RM10m profit) and latest price of RM1.00 the PER T4Q is 19x..... so the question is this worth investing in?? Or to top up.... average down etc? What makes people invest in this scenario as compared to a company that reported profit of RM1b in the last quarter and at its current share price its PER is 10x?? The latter is not a hypothetical scenario but its a REAL scenario, with a blue chip utility company.... but the question still remains? Which would you choose? The natural instinct is to choose the counter that has a better upside.... better potential.... better growth. This is the question you need to ask yourself and analyse accordingly.... happy hunting.
GENETEC has warned investors from it's share movement that you should avoid buying into this stock. Even major shareholders are quietly disposing their shares...
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
hotjazz
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Posted by hotjazz > 1 month ago | Report Abuse
They still payout dividend first time since 2019 is a surprise.