Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 09:58 | Report Abuse

bought back PetronM at 4.86-4.93

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 10:00 | Report Abuse

Time is ripe for exposure to refiner to ride its explosive coming Q2 result which capture highest crack spread USD 25

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 10:05 | Report Abuse

.........the company’s refineries earned strong margins and its oil traders delivered an “exceptional” performance

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/08/03/bp-boosts-returns-as-oil-refining-and-trading-drive-profit-beat

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-03 11:26 | Report Abuse

Don't be scared by the sell down due to Aunty Nancy visit to Taiwan.

Sialang and celebrate the coming Q result.

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~~~ =D

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 11:28 | Report Abuse

Despite mogas crack spread back to Dec 2021 level at USD 9, but RON97 still remain elevated at RM 4.55/l compared to Dec 2021 RON 97 at RM 3.00/l. These is massive 50% increase profit margin for PetronM selling petrol price at its retail station

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 11:31 | Report Abuse

Its proven ability of PetronM to own vast chain of petrol station enable it to continue to enjoy exception massive profit margin despite the indicator show crack spread have normalized

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 11:44 | Report Abuse

Bear in mind, the direct retail selling price RON97 at RM 4.55/l (the highest is at RM 4.84/l) is real profit margin to be recorded by PetronM instead of reference indicator crack spread, normalize back to USD 9 from highest USD33.

These vast discrepancy correlation adjustment between crack spread indicator to actual retail selling price enable PetronM to enjoy even higher profit margin through local vast retail station direct selling to customer

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-08-03 11:50 | Report Abuse

Retail is not O

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-08-03 11:51 | Report Abuse

I meant retail is not oil and gas companies’ main source of income

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 12:05 | Report Abuse

Retail selling price is the main source profit for PetronM on top of the refinery.

PetronM own third largest retail petrol station, just short behind Shell and Petronas.

PetronM derives dual source of profit = Petronas Dagangan (only sole profit from retail station) + Hengyuan (only sole profit from refinary)

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-03 12:07 | Report Abuse

The diesel/gasoil crack spread is still above USD 40/barrel
Going into winter more industries will need gasoil/MFO for heating as Russia reduce the gas supply to EU.

Going into month AUG 2022 so far only 3 tropical storms have formed the forecast is we are going to see hurricane in gulf of Mexico.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 12:14 | Report Abuse

PetronM already completed installation new diessl hydrotreater worth USD 100m, enable it to produce direct diesel Euro 5

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-03 12:15 | Report Abuse

From AGM minute:
2021 Petronm retail market share of 21.7% for diesel and gasoline.
Domestic retail volume for FY2021 declined by about 30% as compared to the pre-pandemic level.
however, the volume has since recovered in 2022 as economic restriction eased.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-03 12:22 | Report Abuse

DHT allows us to produce the government mandate Euro 5 diesel which is cleaner fuel and has lower sulfur emissions. It improved our refining margin as Euro 5 diesel has a higher premium compare to Euro2 diesel.

We are able to received larger parcel shipments of higher sulfur crude resulting in lower fright cost. in addition, the higher sulfur crude is able to blend with our staple crude yielding a better product mix.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-03 12:27 | Report Abuse

Tell me why Petdag trading (commercial sales and retail sales) at PE of 47 whereas Petronm (Refinery, Biodiesel, retail and commercial sales) trading at PE of 5

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 12:55 | Report Abuse

The simple reason is market perception tend to lump petronm ( refinary business) with hengyuan instead group together petronm (retail petrol station) with petdag.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 12:59 | Report Abuse

The easiest way to change market perception is calling petronM to make separate division presentations in its Q result, allowing analysts to fetch fairer comparison valuation tag to its refinary business and retail petrol business duvision, to calculate sum of part valuation

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 13:33 | Report Abuse

Based on total number of petrol station

1. Petronas: 1100
2. Shell: 950
3. Petron: 720

Based on profit over number of petrol stations, petronas derive RM 120m, explorate to petronM petrol retail divison should comand profit RM 78m, implying about 70% petronM profit actually derive from its petrol retail station, balance 30% profit is from more volatile refinary division..

Therefore, in turn if valuation, petronM should tag more closer to petronas dagangan instead of volatile earning hengyuan

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-03 14:28 | Report Abuse

Last quarter if not for hedging derivatives losses the refinery profit should be better than the retail profit.
Q2 will see a much better retail (volume business: many public holiday and balik kampumg travel) and refinery profit ( unnormal record high diesel and petrol crack spread)

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 15:04 | Report Abuse

Agreed, but, the exception profit will not only happen in coming Q2 result, it will sustain to next Q3 due to lag time factor over highly discrepancy between normalize crack spread and retaining elevated retail petrol RON selling price. Its allow arbitrary gain for petronM retail petrol business

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 20:11 | Report Abuse

Latest petrol RON 97 retail price only decrease by 5sen, to RM 4.50/litre.

These pricr level RM 4.50/l is still higher 50% if compared to last Dec level at RM 3.00/l. These elevated retail level is despite crack spread already normalize to last Dec level at 9.

These clearly allow PetronM retail petrol continue enjoy extraordinarily arbitrary profit margin.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-03 20:43 | Report Abuse

retail margin is fixed as per the mechanism derived by Govn

Posted by probability > 2022-08-03 20:56 | Report Abuse

https://paultan.org/2009/02/15/how-fuel-prices-are-calculated-in-malaysia/

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 21:13 | Report Abuse

Factor affecting retail petrol business earning as below show by petdag analyst comment.

1. E.g. FY21 earnings almost doubled YoY, with the group enjoying higher product prices, while volumes stayed marginally flattish YoY (-2%)

2. E. G. Core profit declined by -55.8% due to lower sales volume (-4%), higher product costs (+39%) and less favourable MOPS price trend.

3. 1HFY21 core net profit of RM266m came in below expectations at 39% of our, and 40% of consensus, full-year forecasts, dragged by a decline in product margin spreads amidst the normalisation of oil prices during the 2QFY21 quarter, coupled with lower-than-expected sales volumes.

4. . Post results, we lower our FY21E/FY22E earnings by 11%/5% on the back of lower margins spread and sales volume assumptions

5. Petronas Dagangan’s 1Q22 results missed expectations due to higher product prices, despite a higher sales volume (+20% YoY). Sales volumes for both the retail and commercial segments are expected to grow, but margins could be volatile.

6. While sales volumes are certainly expected to remain healthy in tandem with the resumption of economic activities, the volatile fluctuations of underlying crude oil and product prices remain, and thus, cost management may be crucial going forward.

7. However, we have seen a significant improvement over the financial year last year with quite good first-quarter performance. There are many other factors that impacting the business, not just the volume but is also the movement of prices

8. PetDag 4Q21 core profit rose 53% yoy and 15% qoq to RM137m driven mainly by recovery in sales volume following the reopening of more economic sectors. EBITDA margin, however, was compressed to 3.6% (4Q20: 5%, 3Q21: 5.1%) potentially as a result of lag loss from declining MOPS price during the quarter.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 21:19 | Report Abuse

Above scenario clearly show petdag profitability dependent on

1. Sale volume.
2. Retail RON petrol selling price (output selling)
3. Crack spread (input cost)

Petdag retail petrol profit margin is NOT FIXED.

There is lag time factor between input cost (crack spread) and output selling price to customer at its retail station, offer arbitrary gain

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-03 21:26 | Report Abuse

You can compare the RON97 price change to crack spread data. It is big lag time offer huge discrepancy gap, offer exceptional arbitrary gain for retail petrol outlet.

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-03 21:58 | Report Abuse

Setuju. Terus memantau dan tunggu Q2 keputusan diumumkan bulan ni...

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-04 07:36 | Report Abuse

Thank probability for the link.
If retail profit is RM 0.08 cent per liter.
Petronm q1 2022 volume is 7.7 million barrel or equal 7.7x 159 million liter so the profit will be 7.7 x159 x 0.08= RM 98 million.

Posted by sheldon > 2022-08-05 14:17 | Report Abuse

A big chunk of retail profit will be attributed to the evil twin sisters, Petron Fuel International & Petron Oil. How much? God only knows.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-05 15:22 | Report Abuse

The Q1 2022: 7.7 million barrel volume is for Petronm alone.

Posted by The St. Goreng > 2022-08-05 15:53 | Report Abuse

become a lame duck this petron. No volume
Why ah? Not hot anymore?
FA become bad oledi ah?

Posted by GrowthCapitalist > 2022-08-06 01:55 | Report Abuse

Malaysia always have the weirdest market from other exchange, comparatively MPC, VLO, XOM, CVX refinery has stabilize from the fall yet our refinery still at the rock bottom. Haiz.

Posted by searchingmoney > 2022-08-06 10:18 | Report Abuse

Petronas tiap tahun bagi govt dividend, not sure Petronm ada bagi. kalau ade, mayb share price sama macam Petronas?

Posted by Star8888 > 2022-08-07 16:38 | Report Abuse

Sell HengYuan and PetronM

Crack spread drop 5.74%
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

Gasolin crack spread drop 5.63%
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/hiuzadjh/?symbol=NYMEX%3AGZ1%21

Posted by The St. Goreng > 2022-08-08 14:54 | Report Abuse

Why no volume? and no one bother to comment?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-08 15:57 | Report Abuse

Added more at 4.68-4.72

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-08 16:01 | Report Abuse

At least 2/3 valuation of petron should be reflect on its 3rd largest retain petrol station, a total of profit making 760 station, commanding about quarters of Malaysia petrol market share.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-08 16:16 | Report Abuse

In additional to retail petrol station, refining business in long term should form just 1/4 valuation on petronm.

In fact, petron refining business should view as complement to its retail petrol as integrated fuel provider as all its refinary oil end product is sell to its own retail station, enjoy full profit margin in entire chain supply from trading, storage, refining, logistic, retail, end customer product

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-08 17:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-08 18:25 | Report Abuse

Bagus. Rebound pada penutupan pasaran hari ni

Posted by Star8888 > 2022-08-09 09:08 | Report Abuse

Crack spread drop 3.78% to 6.831. Sell HengYuan and PetronM

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-09 09:53 | Report Abuse

Bear in mind, PetronM retail petrol station still selling its petrol
RON97 at RM 4.50/l;
RON100 at RM 4.90/l;
RON 95 if unsubsidized at RON 4.30/l

You should checked what the retail petrol level last year when crack spread at 7-8. There is big lag time arbitrary gain for PetronM. capitalize on current elevated retail price level despite at current crack spread

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-09 09:58 | Report Abuse

Malaysia gov seem granted retail petrol opportunity to capitalize on current still elevated selling price to end customer by adjusting slowly retail selling price against rapid decrease in crack spread

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-09 10:02 | Report Abuse

In last year Nov-Dec, the retail RON97 is at RM 3.50/l, crack spread (input cost) is at around 7; vs. retail RON97 now is still at RM 4.50/l for same crack spread at 7.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-09 10:06 | Report Abuse

The possible reason could be Malaysia gov allow slower adjustment to retail price, allowing petrol station to enjoy higher lag time arbitrary gain as part of compensation due to Malaysia gov short budget, delay to pay subsidy on RON95 to retail station. The delay in payment for subsidy is main complaint by retail as it result in accumulated receivable for prolong time, affecting retail petrol cash flow and interest expense.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-09 10:19 | Report Abuse

You can refer to other 2 listed company, Petdag (Petronas station) and Boustead holding (under trading division, refer to BH petrol station), both pure retail petrol station profit margin are affected by sale volume and fuel price movement

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-09 10:28 | Report Abuse

Buy PetronM is more on its 750 retail petrol chain, quarter Malaysia petrol market share, rather than its volatile refinery business alone. PetronM refinery business is to complement its retail business as all its refine product is selling through its retail outlet

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-09 11:21 | Report Abuse

Petrol retail will earned fixed earning per liter (volume) irrespective of products price (The only thing is higher products price will need more working capital and thus higher interest charges.

The commecial sales like jet fuel is then depend on jet fuel crack spread. (Demand of jet fuel)

The refinery profit is very volatile due to crude and products price volatility (up and down very fast hence need hedging) and price different between your crude purchased and products you produce and sales 1.5 month later (market force based on demand and supply condition).

Petronm PD refinery run at rate of 47K barrel per day in Q1 2022.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-09 11:55 | Report Abuse

Each petrol station have underground fuel storage tank.

In additional, in its refinery site, it also have crude oil storage tank to store feedstock, it also have storage tank for petrol/diessel/jet fuel, the end product tanks.

Each of these above storage tanks above will offer a big arbitrary gain due to lag time effect and timing for Gov to adjust selling price.

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-09 11:58 | Report Abuse

Permintaan O&G masih tinggi kerana banyak aktiviti dan sukan di seluruh dunia akan dijalankan semula