Posted by RainT > 2019-06-13 10:51 | Report Abuse

wah continue to up today

good la

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-13 10:53 | Report Abuse

@kingj

if a company is taken private , its depend on the take over party how much they want offer so now we don't know one and they will hire investment banker to come out with the suggestion price

if the price is not good then we can reject

but if you just hold small number of shares only ….no choice ...u got to follow if major shareholders agree it

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-13 10:54 | Report Abuse

but I think very very low chance they will take HLIND to private la

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-13 10:56 | Report Abuse

@stockraider HLIND biz is so different from NESTLE or QL

how HLIND PE can grow that high le

NESTLE products so good and demand is so high

QL is also high demand as human need eat it everyday

HLIND not all will ride motorbike ya (perceive as dangerous and low class to ride motorbike)

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-13 10:57 | Report Abuse

@fabien

yes, Vietnam is grow fast it economy

but for it to overtake Singapore , maybe need 100 years

haha

the civic mindness, security , cleanliness, cultures is so backward compare with Sg

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-13 11:00 | Report Abuse

@kingj
@fabien

thanks for feedback comment

as I get some good input on my perception

hope as u said is right , increase in demand in Vietnam is increase by numbers so hope the numbers is also most go to YAMAHA not HONDA
And don't forget, the Vietnam company is associate only , so the share of profit is low

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-13 11:01 | Report Abuse

wonder why HLIND don't increase the shareholdings from associate to subsidiary

as high potential in Vietnam

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-13 11:04 | Report Abuse

I think I will continue average up HLIND another batch

HLIND going to do shariah review again in November 2019 (end of year if not wrong)

so the upside potential is there

plus point is now PE 10 only , have chance to expand more the PE

Posted by Lioncity > 2019-06-13 12:31 | Report Abuse

Buying interest growing strong a day before 35 sens dividend ex.

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-13 14:14 | Report Abuse

14 june ex dividend date

today last day to buy to entitle for the dividend

Posted by dnlt > 2019-06-13 14:20 | Report Abuse

Using a growth of target of 15% (past 5 years average but likely cannot continue at this rate), 50% dividend payout ratio, PE of 12 times, MARR of 15% .. .
I am getting the price around Rm16.60.
Guess have to keep it a while first while the boss decides what to do with the billion ringgit in the bank.

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-13 14:24 | Report Abuse

with current price if buy

dividend yield is around 3.1%

quite near with fd rate in bank

Posted by dnlt > 2019-06-13 14:30 | Report Abuse

rainT, pls take calculator punch in 0.50 / 11.30. It's 4.4, not 3.1..
If you are just looking at the upcoming 0.35, that's too short sighted.

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-06-13 15:04 | Report Abuse

Ayoyo... Dunno how to calculate mei

Posted by stockraider > 2019-06-13 17:49 | Report Abuse

Don be so sohchai lah...Yes HLI is so different from Nestle & QL, but do u think QL n Nestle not very different meh ??
If QL not similiar to NESTLE then why QL command PE above 50x leh ??

Don forget QL deal with commodities product like jual ikan, jual telur, jual ayam, tanam sawit and buka kedai runcit loh...what so special about QL to give PE 50x leh ???

Is all boil down growth factors and good management mah....!!
Don forget HLI growth are more superior than QL, ROE is much higher, balance sheet is much superior, HLI is net cash more than Rm 1 billion whereas QL is net borrowing more than Rm 1 billion and dividend of HLI is much higher loh!.

Thus PE 25x raider says for HLI is just the conservative low end valuation of HLI...this Mean even HLI at Rm 25.00 it still undervalue loh...!!
To be same same as QL and Nestle it should be value above Rm 50.00 loh...!!


Posted by RainT > Jun 13, 2019 10:56 AM | Report Abuse

@stockraider HLIND biz is so different from NESTLE or QL

how HLIND PE can grow that high le

NESTLE products so good and demand is so high

QL is also high demand as human need eat it everyday

HLIND not all will ride motorbike ya (perceive as dangerous and low class to ride motorbike)

Posted by kingJ > 2019-06-13 20:29 | Report Abuse

HLi also have some land. I am sure if revalued, the NTA will be much higher.

Posted by kingJ > 2019-06-13 20:33 | Report Abuse

I think the price is not what it should be because QLC is holding too much of it.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-06-14 17:49 | Report Abuse

we all know PE 10x is unreasonable for such company (net cash, growing earnings, growing FCF, good dividend yield, growing dividends, high ROE, high ROIC). ex cash PE ratio < 10x.

what is lacking is the "demand", perhaps due to its small public float and no analyst coverage.

Posted by kingJ > 2019-06-14 19:24 | Report Abuse

Agree

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-15 12:42 | Report Abuse

glad that HLIND has been upgraded in my portfolio exposure

going to invest HLIND for mid to long term

Posted by kingJ > 2019-06-15 17:53 | Report Abuse

HLID has lots of cash to pay dividends even in a bad year (unlikely). As dividends increases (very likely), so does the price of its share. Very good for long term investment. Dividend yield determines the price.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-06-17 14:51 | Report Abuse

its growing owner earnings, i.e. free cashflows, itself is a catalyst to better valuation multiple hence its market valuation

Posted by Lioncity > 2019-06-18 12:12 | Report Abuse

From TA point of view, this stock is coming to 52 weeks high, thanks to shariah disposal it created an opportunity to buy low, market is giving it a PE around 10, unjustified I know but that’s the sentiment for now.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-06-18 17:25 | Report Abuse

hence, investing requires a lot of patience. as long as the fundamentals are good, even maintaining at 50sen dividend you will still get 4.5% yield better than FD.

i remember investing in Padini. similarly strong fundamental company, trading at low digit PE to 10x. been holding for few years while enjoying 5-6% dividend yield. after 2 years plus of holding, market sentiment towards Padini changed resulting in higher valuation multiple. Padini was re-rated higher and higher, even to 20x, if i'm not mistaken, and became one of top investment success.

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-19 12:48 | Report Abuse

wah

after ex date dividend, the share price still sustain above 11

good indication

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-19 12:50 | Report Abuse

HLIND will go for shariah review soon

after get through, hope more funds come in and HLIND share price steady move up

Posted by kywoo > 2019-06-19 12:53 | Report Abuse

From my 40 years of investing in stocks and shares I have been making consistent profit. As the market is imperfect, there will always be shares that are undervalued in the short term. However, in the long run, the market will revalue it to a fair price. My ability to make good money in the stock market is my effort to spot undervalued counters. I will buy the counter and keep it for sometime until it is fairly devalued. I never trade nor speculate. That is how Warren Buffett made his money too. In the long run Hong Leong Ind has to trade at a PE of no less than 15 in order to reflect its fair price. Otherwise, the controlling shareholders might as well privatize the company for a song.

Posted by kywoo > 2019-06-19 12:56 | Report Abuse

I will keep it until it is fairly valued.

Posted by x3mg33 > 2019-06-19 13:42 | Report Abuse

@kywoo your comments are always wise and make a lot of sense. You are truly a superinvestor.

Posted by ongkkh > 2019-06-19 14:47 | Report Abuse

Kywoo sift, how much do you think is fully value? By the way, any other counter you are consider is undervalue?

Posted by kywoo > 2019-06-19 15:06 | Report Abuse

You can consider Oriental Holding.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-06-20 16:21 | Report Abuse

i also hold both HLIND and Oriental

Posted by Lioncity > 2019-06-20 17:05 | Report Abuse

Both also sibeh cash rich companies

Posted by kywoo > 2019-06-21 09:34 | Report Abuse

In many way, Hong Leong Ind is far better than Oriental Holdings. Hong Leong Ind owns the brand Yamaha through partnership with Yamaha Japan in both Malaysia and Vietnam. It is not a franchise.Oriental is not even a sole franchise holder of Honda bikes and cars but one of many distributors. The balance sheet and cash holding of Hong Leong Ind is far stronger than Oriental.The overall business of Hong Leong Ind is more focus. Either bikes or building materials. Oriental is more scattered into many areas..The money comes mainly from Honda cars sales.The others are not doing that well. Perhaps Hong Leong Ind is one of best and cheapest buy in Bursa and a fair valuation is 16.00 based on current earnings. It can be more if the Vietnam market for Yamaha bikes booms in near future.

Posted by x3mg33 > 2019-06-21 10:07 | Report Abuse

@kywoo if what you say is true.... then HLIND has lots of potential. No wonder you see things that others do not and that makes you a deserving superinvestor I will increase HLIND in portfolio. Thanks.

Posted by Lioncity > 2019-06-21 10:31 | Report Abuse

Hungry buyer is nibbling, why I don’t see them when company is being sell down last year lol

Posted by kywoo > 2019-06-21 11:22 | Report Abuse

When I start accumulating Nestle in 2009 from 28.00 everyone was laughing at me. All the stock broking firms were recommending either hold or sell. None say buy. Some say I was stupid because there were so many cheaper good stocks to buy. No counters traded above 10.00 at that time. But somehow, after all my studies and research on Nestle I saw the potential upside. Hardly any retail investors saw it.. Similarly when I started accumulating Hong Leong Ind at 4.44 4 years ago many say I made a silly decision because at that time Yamaha bikes were not doing that well. Somehow I saw the potential in Yamaha bikes when many do not. I don't think I am smart but I must say I put in a lot of effort to study and analyse the market and the financial statements. I do not follow what the so called experts recommend. They are wrong most of the time. On top of it don't listen to rumours. Do your own research. Money don't come easy. Then you can see when others don't.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-06-21 11:41 | Report Abuse

"Somehow I saw the potential in Yamaha bikes when many do not."

@kywoo, mind sharing your research and insights on the prospect of Yamaha bikes?

Posted by antoniomc27 > 2019-06-21 23:46 | Report Abuse

kywoo, Fabien, it is a pleasure to read your insights. Kywoo, I agree HLIND is sexier than ORIENT, and that it is severely undervalued.

One thing I do not understand... why if the Vietnam market and potential is so big, and their market share so small, don't they use a portion of their massive cash pile to do smart and exhaustive marketing campaigns in Vietnam?

Another one that scapes me: I just don't comprehend what is the idea of the directors about that billion ringgit sitting in the bank, unless they wanted to keep the price artificially low avoiding Shariah-compliance. I am growing a bit impatient by the day, because I feel a smart business don't let such amount of money setting idle in the bank.

Perhaps I should train myself in the virtue of... patience !

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-06-22 08:16 | Report Abuse

i believe HLI is doing good actually. despite the massive cash piles, the management is still able to earn ROE above 20% consistently. they know what they are doing. moreoever, dividends have been increasing yearly. they have a strategy in place.

in contrast, Oriental ROE is below 10%, the cash is sitting there idling, the management is over conservative. Oriental should distribute those excess cash to the shareholders.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-06-22 08:18 | Report Abuse

HLI can earn ROE of above 25%. how many investors can do that? with the excess cash to you, can you make use of it and beat the 25% return?

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-24 17:46 | Report Abuse

clap clap

very good comment and insight from experienced sifus

Posted by kywoo > 2019-06-27 10:16 | Report Abuse

Actually, Hong Leong Ind is one of the best share I have invested in other than Nestle. On July 24th 2015 I bought a block of Hong Leong Ind at 4.50 per share. As of today I have received total dividends of RM 1.84 per share. Hence my net cost is only 2.66 per share. As of this morning the share is traded at 11.26. Hence I have a profit of 8.60 per share. There is therefore a return of 323% in slightly less than a year. If I had put my money in the bank I would have got a miserable return of 16% for 4 years. Share investment can we very profitable if you invest in the right share after much effort in research by yourself. Don't follow blindly what so called experts tell you. They are wrong most of the time.

Posted by kywoo > 2019-06-27 10:18 | Report Abuse

I mean less than 4 years. Typo error.

Posted by kingJ > 2019-06-27 16:19 | Report Abuse

kywoo, that was very good. Its tax free also.

Posted by x3mg33 > 2019-06-27 17:28 | Report Abuse

Funds and research houses are so called experts offering professional advice at the expense of unwary investors by charging them unscrupulous fees or artificially inflate stock prices to churn up brokerage fees. Never trust them.... just take it with a pinch of salt. I agree with kywoo... stock investment is not for everyone and certainly no free food and quick money in this world.

Posted by RainT > 2019-06-29 15:40 | Report Abuse

need to have lots of patience and invest long term

need to be contrarian

and do own research

Posted by Lioncity > 2019-07-04 17:41 | Report Abuse

Slow & steady, price climbing back to pre ex date.

Posted by RainT > 2019-07-05 19:03 | Report Abuse

get capital gains and get dividend also

Posted by kywoo > 2019-07-17 10:55 | Report Abuse

It is really tempting for the controlling shareholders to privatize the company as the traded price of 11.40 is way below the average reasonable PE of 15 to 18. The projected earning of 1.10 give Hong Leong Ind a PE of only 10.2. As the share is not traded actively, it is easy for anyone to push pricre down on negative news such as delisting from Shariah compliance index. In fact price went down to as low as 8.40 few months ago. I am glad to read in the paper today that BURSA may follow the new rule of Singapore Exchange whereby the offeror must offer a reasonable price in order to privatize a good company especially when the company is flushed with cash. Hong Leong Ind has over a billion in cash and a EPS of 1.10. To me it should be trading at least at a PE of 16. I wonder why the fund managers cannot see that.