Result proves that consumers are still buying legal cigarettes despite the grim situation. If Covid situation is under control and remain low with no lockdowns and all cigarette sales channels are back full swing, BAT will rise. Patience is needed and hope that Covid in Malaysia is kept at a minimum level.
With the effects of MCO and the presents FD rates offered by the banks, dividends by BAT is certainly commendable. Expects better performances in the coming qtrs.
No point to switch to lower dividend yielding counter such as Panamy and Mahsing. BAT worst quarter is already over now, the latest quarter (during MCO) was better and future quarter should be even better. Can consider to diversify once BAT price hits RM14 and yield is similar to those counters.
Just some simple calculation, the latest quarter only in operation for 1 and half month, we can assume this Q2 is the worst quarter. However, Q2 better than Q1, well done team BAT. So at current price 10.8, take the last Q1 dividend 0.17 x 4 quarter, 0.68 / 10.8 ,Dividend yield 6.3% So you can see current price is a strong support. TA give BAT TP @12.50
No need to defend. People can say what they want. If they feel will drop to RM5, so be it. Let those who wants to buy or keep do it. Situation get better or not, nobody will know for sure. If you trust your own valuation, then stick with it. Don't be easily shaken
Please compare quarter by quarter. The revenue and profit is going downhill. What I meant by picking up means better compare to the last quarter. You see the decrease in cash and bank balances and the huge increase of borrowings just to pay dividends is a huge red flag. I'm only writing this once, because I don't argue with idiots. Talk to people in BAT and Philip Morris and they will tell you the story.
Your article does not discuss if there has indeed been a huge increase in borrowings recently. To do this you could compare borrowings to 1 year ago, 2 years ago, 3 years ago, etc.
BAT during long long time..yes it's good. No doubt. Open back the chart since one year ago. Around RM26 drop till around RM10 at present. Did you ask why suddenly so cheap? Revenue and profit drop. Imagine they stopped the dividends currently although at present they really don't have the capacity to pay such dividends. Even take loan also need to pay you guys. Why? Just to maintain the share price even inside the Company had trouble. I write very obvious already, and FYI you're not paying me to write. I'm writing is because I know some old retired uncles hold this bad for their pocket money for retirement and only to warn them. It's up to you to take it or leave it. Ask if any fund managers does actually buy BAT if you know any of them :)
You are still not discussing any actual numbers. So there is nothing to discuss.
I'll use the words in your latest blog instead and just change the name of the stock.
BAT latest quarter is out. Results is bad, but still can make profit. So I u-turn say good because during the lockdown period if a Company can still make profit, it's like a miracle already.
Don't be silly Baby. If you want to be publishing your analysis...have some standard can
BAT has always had high inventories and low cash balance. That is why they always tap on their short term revolving credit. This is called efficient cashflow management. What more you are extrapolating a MCO quarter...
The inventories at 216M is only slightly higher yoy. This is how BAT does business. What are they going to sell if they do not have stock to replenish? Didn't you see the CEO proclaim how good they are being able to quickly restock and have a better 2Q than 1Q despite MCO
Of course BAT isn't at its best now...that is why it is selling at 10. From what you said you must think you are very smart and the market is just dumb to price it at 10. Where do you think it should be? 5 or zero? Don't be silly Baby
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Johnng8882020
866 posts
Posted by Johnng8882020 > 2020-07-24 10:15 | Report Abuse
Dam cheap! The worst is gone. During MCO no sales at all but this qrt still can make profit. Where to find?