Planter's can counter the negative call by the IB by rewarding their shareholders with generous pay out. Look at Digi how they distribute their dividends. With positive cash flows they can reward their shareholders
With Indonesia confirming the move of their capital to Kalimantan, land prices there have only 1 direction to go, and guess which plantation stocks have vast tracks of land on the island of Borneo.
The FCPO price extended its rally, reinforcing our view of a base building mode. With momentum staying elevated, the FCPO price could challenge its Jan 2022 high of MYR5,228 soon. Note that MACD and RSI indicators also show positive readings.
Jan 27): Oil palm planters in Malaysia are confronting a hard truth — behind the red-hot rally in prices are thousands of jobs that nobody wants.
While high prices typically encourage planting and production of crops, output in No. 2 grower Malaysia slumped to a five-year low last year and planters say the main reason for that is the industry’s worst-ever shortage of workers.
The inability to increase supply in response to rising prices goes to the heart of what’s driving palm oil to record highs. Output growth in top producer Indonesia is slowing too. This is important for global food inflation because the two countries account for more than 80% of world supplies, and consumption of the edible oil in everything from food, to detergent and fuel is expanding.
“The volume of palm oil that will come onto the market is more or less fixed and not going to grow very much,” said Julian Conway McGill, Head of South East Asia at LMC International, a consulting firm. “But the world keeps needing more vegetable oil for food. We need to get those yields up.”
Disconnect between CPO price rally vs planter's stock prices. Look at RSawit, TH plant, SOP or IOI. Hardly moved. Dissapointed unless planter's increased their dividend pay out rate { to steer investor interest}
CPO price has gone crazy already! It closed at a new record of $5,810 this evening! This is the result of Indonesia restricting export volume to adequately supply domestic market.
Yes, plantation companies that have exposure in Malaysia only stand to benefit the most from the CPO price surge. Having said that, the negative impact on KLK and Sime plant is relatively small and well compensated by the higher CPO price for substantial production outside of Indonesia . TSH is most affected.
Indonesia imposed new restriction on upstream planter's sales. Bad for Malaysia planter's in Indonesia. 20% of your production output directed to local refiners at a big discount set by the minister. Export tax and levy up again to discourage export of cpo. Not we understand why SOP never venture out to Indonesia
A massive winter storm swept across the central and Northeast US on Thursday where it was delivering heavy snow and ice, making travel treacherous, if not impossible, knocking out power to thousands and closing schools in several states.
Who knows what kind of wild weather will be during the next edible oil crop season . If next edible oil crop harvest in the northern hemisphere is no good , CPO price will stay above $5,000 throughout 2022 until the next crop season in 2023.
When volume available for export is reduced, oversea importers will have to pay higher price for tighter supply. Oversea consumers are effectively cross subsidizing local controlled prices . The Indonesian policy is really not detrimental to the sector , opposite to what the media and analysts reported.
SOP own estates producing about 1.3 mil mt FFB stand to gain a lot from higher CPO price. EPS 2021 is estimated 77 sen and PE of about 5x only ! Projected EPS 2022 is likely to exceed 80 sen due to higher CPO price expected. Incredible value in this stock
SOP was about $4.11 when CPO was about $3,000 on 3/1/2020. Now, CPO is $5,800 (93% higher!) and SOP is only $4.03 this morning . I can’t understand how analysts and investors apply the financial valuation principles! At PE 10x , SOP should fetch $7.70 based on estimated EPS 2021 of 77 sen At PE 15x , SOP should fetch $11.55 (77sen x 15)
SOP realised very good CPO selling price in 2021 .
Actual CPO price realised in 2021 (per QRs) : Jan-Mar 21 $3,885 Apr-Jun 21 $4,414 Jul -Sep 21 $4,490 Simple av Jan-Sep 21 $4,263 which is very close to the spot market prices reported by MPOB.
Avg CPO spot price for Jan 2022 is $5,355. Feb spot price is likely to be higher. FCPO average from Feb to Dec 2022 as at 7/2/2022 is $5,189.
Based on the above, i am confident that SOP is going to make significantly higher profit in 2022 (2021 estimate EPS is already 77 sen)
Despite physical CPO hitting $5,700+ and trade analyst forecasting February production affected & hit by late harvesting rounds {labour & quality}.fuel further by Indonesia supply restrictions. Malaysian planter's counters hardly stirred. Best case scenario $5.50 to $5.85 based on golden cross formations and upper level of the MACD mark. Just my own chart view interpretation
Plantermen, I have said many times that many Analysts are nuts and unprofessional. Irrespective of their ulterior motives , what they said reflects badly on their credibility and capability. They only see challenges and problems. I fact they see GHOSTs everywhere.
Plantation business is not short of challenges like in any other industry. Amid challenges, there are plenty of opportunities too. The challenges like labour , ESG ,etc will force the planters to change, innovate, adapt and improve efficiency which shall bring a lot of goods to the industry eventually. Despite all the challenges, the planters are still reaping bumper profits ,paying handsome dividend , and strengthen their financial position with many are net cash of hefty sum. The financial performance is all we as investors care about.
JAKARTA (Feb 9): Indonesia, the world's top palm oil maker, had expanded its export permit requirement for palm oil products to include other derivatives, a Trade Ministry regulation reviewed by Reuters on Wednesday (Feb 9) showed.
The new rules takes effect on Feb 15, according to the regulation signed on Tuesday, and apply to products such as margarine and kernel oils. The permit requirement was previously only set for exports of crude palm oil (CPO), olein, used cooking oil and residue.
Indonesia moved to restrict exports of palm oil to try to cool down soaring prices of cooking oil at home, which had sent global prices on a rally.
Late in January, it imposed a so-called Domestic Market Obligation (DMO), where exporters must sell 20% of their planned exports at home and with a price cap to ensure lower retail prices.
Under the new regulation, to secure export approvals for all palm products, companies must show proof of their domestic sales of CPO and/or refined, bleached and deodorised palm olein in accordance with the DMO requirements.
KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 9): The crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives snapped two straight days of losses to close higher on Wednesday, lifted by a news report that Indonesia, the biggest supplier, is expanding its palm oil export curbs to include all palm oil products.
Palm oil trader David Ng said the news would lift sentiment and push demand for Malaysian CPO.
At the close, the CPO futures contract for February soared RM199 to RM5,765 a tonne, March 2022 increased RM168 to RM5,704 a tonne, April 2022 gained RM145 to RM5,594 a tonne,
The physical CPO price for February rose RM100 to RM5,820 a tonne.
SOP's own FFB production in Q4 2021 was 315,481 mt (Q4 2020 325,944 mt), down by 3% y-o-y which is fantastic in view of worsening labour shortage. Avg CPO price for Q4 2021 is 54% higher y-o-y ($5,154 vs $3,341) Therefore, Q4 2021 y-o-y earning growth shall be explosive.
CPO price Jan 2022 is 43% higher y-o-y ($5,354 VS $3,748) and it is expected to hold above $5,000 for a while . We will see yet another explosive earning growth for Q1 2022 too.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Plantermen
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Posted by Plantermen > 2022-01-14 14:01 | Report Abuse
Planter's can counter the negative call by the IB by rewarding their shareholders with generous pay out. Look at Digi how they distribute their dividends. With positive cash flows they can reward their shareholders