LONDON (Feb 10): From morning lattes to dinnertime roasts, prices for major food staples are on the boil.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Subindex, which tracks nine agricultural commodities, is nearing an all-time high. Prices across grains, oilseed and softs markets have rallied as supply shortfalls abound, a signal that food inflation already hitting consumers worldwide is unlikely to let up soon.
inputs from energy to packaging rose 10% in January versus last year. And unlike past volatile commodity cycles, farmers are unlikely to ramp up production significantly.
That echoes supply challenges rippling across crop markets. Stockpiles of arabica-coffee at exchange warehouses dwindled to a 22-year low this week, and a US Department of Agriculture report pared its estimate for world wheat and cotton reserves.
Dryness has also spanned key South America soybean-growing regions, as well as west African nations that produce the bulk of the world’s cocoa. And farmers are facing challenges from rocketing costs for fertilizer, pesticides and diesel.
“Prices are rising on strong demand and dwindling stocks with supply-chain challenges still an issue,” Judy Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting, said by message.
The gains across food markets threaten to hit import-reliant regions hardest. A milling association in Cameroon this week halted flour deliveries due to soaring costs for wheat.
Soybeans futures topped US$16 bushel in Chicago on Thursday for the first time since May. Cocoa in New York touched a one-year high. The BCOM index will update after trading closes.
“The bull market has staying power,” Rabobank analysts said in a note. “Worsening weather for La Nina-hit southern Brazil and Argentina is eroding global feed prospects and shifting demand to the US, where supplies and acreage expansion are limited.
BJFood posted 3.4 folds growth of profit y-o-y for the Oct-Dec 2021 qtr and declared 1 sen interim dividend. As a result, it’s share price limits up this morning which is helped by the positive sentiment in Bursa now. SOP is expected to also post over 7 folds jump of profit y-o-y for Oct-Dec 2021 qtr and expect to declare higher dividend.
Has the market priced in this ? I don’t think so .
People that you must follow on i3 list 1. Pang72: Contra God 2. Paktua: WhatsApp Pump and Dump God 3. Calvin: "I told you so, buy this company that I recommend instead" 4. Dompeilee: Appears in literally every stock that limit up Insider Trading God (I bought xxx two months ago and now it's up I am a God) 5. mf: Robot/AI God
Feb 16): A supply crunch is threatening to cause a spike in prices for the world’s No 1 weedkiller, making it even more expensive for farmers to grow food.
A major supplier of an ingredient in glyphosate — an herbicide that’s widely used by corn, soy, cotton and other farmers around the world — shut down production due to mechanical failures, and repairs could take three months. Bayer AG, the maker of Roundup, whose active ingredient is glyphosate, declared a force majeure on Feb 11, meaning it may not be able to meet its sales agreements.
Farmers are anxious.
Aprosoja, an association of soybean producers in Brazil’s top-producing state Mato Grosso, sent a letter to Bayer’s chief executive officer in Brazil asking for assurances that there will be no shortages of glyphosate. Over 90% of soybeans grown in Brazil are genetically modified to resist glyphosate.
Yet another likely setback for soya and corn planting and production. Notwithstanding the wild weather pattern, Will supply of soyoil improve in 2022 to drive CPO price substantially down ? I have doubt.
Foreign funds hoot sop so much the price keep going up. Previously not favor by local institutions and local retail due to its low dividend. Local retail all went into Taann, Inno & Bplant for high dividend.
If the timing is right easily can hit above 5.50 look at umcca { small acreage and 2 oil mills } is holding at 5.40 level. Umcca sold off their peninsular estate in 2018when CPO was at the doldrums { fetching low valuations } vs SOP expanding their acreage and nibbling { adding on }planted estate lands
Ourt local IBs have yet to say much after the Angmo JP Morgan's very positive view on plantation stock. It is very embarrassing if local IBs don't follow suit. i think they will issue plantation sector upgrade and coverage on plantations counters with higher TPs soon. When that come, price will power ahead.
Plantation stock rally has just begun in Feb 2022. It appear to me that there is a lot more steam for this rally to continue for months. Like many other stock rallies, we may see some plantation's share price surge pass triple digit % increase. I will just lock up my plantation stocks to enjoy the once in a lifetime superb return.
GLOVE rally lasted 4 months to reach its peak (Apr 2020 to Aug 2020). Supermax share price was around $1.63 (2/4/2020) to around $23.00 (7/8/2020), increase of 1,311% Topglove was $6.40 (2/4/2020) to $28.00 (7/8/2020), increase of 338% Harta was $6.80 to $21.00 , increase of 209%
STEEL rally lasted about 6 months to reach its peak(Nov 2020 to May 2021) Anjoo share price was $0.60 (2/11/2020) to $3.10 (10/5/21), increase of 417% SSteel was $0.42 to $1.20, increase of 186% Melewar was $0.20 to $0.72 , increase of 260%.
CNA news on Russia -Ukraine conflict: Any interruption to the flow of grain out of the Black Sea region is likely to have a major impact on prices and further fuel food inflation at a time when affordability is a major concern across the globe following the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Four major exporters - Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and Romania - ship grain from ports in the Black Sea which could face disruptions from any military action or sanctions.
Ukraine is projected to be the world's third largest exporter of corn in the 2021/22 season and fourth largest exporter of wheat, according to International Grains Council data. Russia is the world's top wheat exporter.
In times of inflation, or rather hyperinflation (caused by money printing of many countries without equivalent increases in real goods output), resources that are limited will be repriced simply because more money is chasing for the same limited resources. Unless production is increased, prices will simply go up. One resource (and value) in plantation companies that is often overlooked is the value of the land on their balance sheet. I'm not too sure of the actual numbers, but from SOP website, SOP has 122,000 hectares of which 88,000 hectares is planted with palm oil. To put things into perspective, the total land area of Singapore is slightly more than 72,000 hectares. With Sarawak charting a more aggressive infrastructure drive, thus opening up more remote areas to development (thus raising land prices in remote areas), AND the impending shift of Indonesia's capital to Kalimantan and the shifting of a population the size of Singapore to there, what would the increase in land prices be in the coming years? Hopefully some learned analyst can provide some perspective on this and how the values will be unlocked into the P&L and Balance Sheet of companies like SOP, TAANN, SRKPLT etc... My 2 cents
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Johnzhang
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Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-11 06:03 | Report Abuse
LONDON (Feb 10): From morning lattes to dinnertime roasts, prices for major food staples are on the boil.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Subindex, which tracks nine agricultural commodities, is nearing an all-time high. Prices across grains, oilseed and softs markets have rallied as supply shortfalls abound, a signal that food inflation already hitting consumers worldwide is unlikely to let up soon.
inputs from energy to packaging rose 10% in January versus last year. And unlike past volatile commodity cycles, farmers are unlikely to ramp up production significantly.
That echoes supply challenges rippling across crop markets. Stockpiles of arabica-coffee at exchange warehouses dwindled to a 22-year low this week, and a US Department of Agriculture report pared its estimate for world wheat and cotton reserves.
Dryness has also spanned key South America soybean-growing regions, as well as west African nations that produce the bulk of the world’s cocoa. And farmers are facing challenges from rocketing costs for fertilizer, pesticides and diesel.
“Prices are rising on strong demand and dwindling stocks with supply-chain challenges still an issue,” Judy Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting, said by message.
The gains across food markets threaten to hit import-reliant regions hardest. A milling association in Cameroon this week halted flour deliveries due to soaring costs for wheat.
Soybeans futures topped US$16 bushel in Chicago on Thursday for the first time since May. Cocoa in New York touched a one-year high. The BCOM index will update after trading closes.
“The bull market has staying power,” Rabobank analysts said in a note. “Worsening weather for La Nina-hit southern Brazil and Argentina is eroding global feed prospects and shifting demand to the US, where supplies and acreage expansion are limited.