May Aeoncr continue to rebound / uptrend as another record high revenue & return to be announced around 20-9-14 in line with Aeon's high revenue announced recently?
Thanks Kevin for yr posting. Am waiting for the Q report and div that will be announced. Hopeful there would be some other sweetners to add. Regards Kevin
The financial results were released around 20 Sept in the past many years except in 2013, it was released one month late due to the decision on CAR matter with announcement of issuance of perpetual bonds. Logically, the financial result should be released as usual time according to the standard Aeoncr’s timing. Hope this info helps.
Now Aeoncr seems expend to higher risk market. Coz impairment lost is higher than last few years. But still manageable. Current CEO mentioned about new business plan. I wonder what is it. Hope it will be a growth catalyst.
i think mainly because their asset deteriorated NPL dropped to 2.65% , ie Rm 100 loan issued RM 2.65 will be defaulted, and RHB downgraded from buy call to neutral lower target price to RM 18
Despite lacklustre net profit growth of 10%, its revenue still grows impressively at 28%. This shows that its business expansion is still very much intact, not affected by Bank Negara credit tightening. So what actually caused its profit growth to slump from 31% to just 10% ? In fact, it is due to a big provision of Rm28mil for impairment loss :-an amount set aside to standby for borrowers defaulting loan as required by accounting laws even though the borrowers have not actually defaulted the loans yet.
The provision for impairment loss under the latest accounting standard FRS 130 is something like this : If a borrower forgets to pay 1 monthly instalment, it is deemed that he has defaulted 25% of the loan, so the accounting law requires that provision be made for 25% of that loan. If the borrower fails to pay 2 instalments consecutively, then provision must go up to 50%. If the borrows fails to pay 3 instalments consecutively(aka 90days delinquency), it is deemed that that borrower has defaulted 100% on the loan, so provision must go up to 100%. Of course, if borrower resume paying instalment, there will be "write-back" in the following quarter. Provision or "write-off" will decrease the net profit of that particular quarter, whereas "write-back" will increase the net profit. I like such conservative accounting because it is based on actual occurrence (borrower defaults on paying loan instalment) and all these figures are very real. Of course, the accountants and auditors will have to do more works, but their additional works benefit us (the shareholders) tremendously.
The deterioration of loan quality was also picked up by its gross impaired loan ratio increased from 2.18% to 2.65%. Not to worry, 2.65% is still very healthy! By comparison, CIMB is at 3.2%.
Full confidence shall be given in Aeon Credit's prudent credit control. The current big provision would be a one-time event and would not be repeated in the future. Trust Aeon Credit as it has 100 years of successful credit management experience in Japan !
Accompanying this profit announcement, Aeon Credit has also declared a commendable mid-year dividend of Rm0.274/share. If we annualise it , the full year dividend will be Rm0.55/share, giving a yield of 3.3%.
Not to worry but of course don't ignore what is happening. I bought it at 15.30 back in June because I think paying 10-11x for a great management/company is a fair price considering the profit margin and ROE, compare to paying 20-30x for a plantation company.
Although financial/banking companies are harder to measure the quality of their assets, just like banks in US before GFC, probably hard to know which bank has 'toxic derivatives' and how much in their balance sheet. That's why still have to keep an eye on the NPL ratio. But until there is more indication that something is very wrong and needed correction, in the long run, Aeon Credit will still perform well and has plenty of room to grow in Malaysia given their small market cap compare to others like MBSB or banks.
with the recent budget announcement ,gst and petro's price increased. the lower income group are the ppl who will suffer the most. And the revenue of Aeon credit mostly come from the group. i think that's y explain the free fall now.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
lsv1977final
1,447 posts
Posted by lsv1977final > 2014-08-28 12:57 | Report Abuse
Long term investment. If it really go down to 15, is an opportunity also. Will buy more. 20/09, RM0.30 dividend