SKLiew, your last post sounds bitter that Malton had gone up since Jan 17?? Yes agree that HoHup last few qtrs better than Malton but Malton up because of what they have for tomorrow not just because what they DID yesterday. As for tomorrow, one can say that HoHup also not too bad if RHB's report is anywhere near accurate. RHB said BJC GDV RM4B..meaning HoHup share would be RM720M. Less RM93M recognised =RM627M at say 85% margin = RM530M future profit to recognise. Oolala
Jamesbond, last Q Hohup's entitlement from BJC JDA was about rm19M, meant booked sales for Malton BJC mainly from the Signature Shops was in excess of 100M. Signature Shops supposed to be the jewels as far as profit contribution is concerned. But reported pittance profit of 2% net margin citing high labour and materials costs.... I actually had very high expectations of the profits on Malton's last 2 Q results as the Signature Shops with GDV of RM543 millions should have contributed handsomely. The Signature Shops are almost completed and billing should have reached 80-90%... Hohup's earnings based on 18% GDV is actually more assured and transparent.... haha! I didn't buy back Malton I sold mainly because not satisfied and disappointed with the results... on hindsight, I forgot about the possibility of merger with WCT and Malton carried a lot of weight in the equation should there be any corporate maneuvers and its RNAV has to be reflected and brought to the negotiation table..... sorry just making a wild speculation...
RHB Research valued Malton at rm1.75 based on about 40% discount on its RNAV (making many assumption on the profits of future projects on the pipeline). There were earlier similar reports in 2014/2015 valued Malton at 1.80 and yet Malton dropped to as low as 57sen last year....
The last report I read from RHB Research about 6-9 months ago, Hohup TP was about 1.20 whereas just last month, Kenanga Research's TP was only 84sen....
I am a supporter of Hohup. I sold at the recent high and had bot back some... will accumulate.... but Malton had slipped away...too bad....
If Ho Hup is to do some construction work with pittance returns + wait for durian runtuh from BJC land, then one would comfortably say Ho Hup is worth at least RM1.50 above. However, they are venturing into property development somewhere in Kulai with a much longer gestation period(need to deliver land owners portion first), I am quite uneasy about that having seen what happened to Kampar property market near UTAR. Of course no venture no gain. As for their construction biz, unless they can match the likes of IJM and Gamuda, coupled with Chinaco contractors who offer deferred payments, then most likely HHup will get leftovers projects with little or negative returns. I suppose the near term catalyst is the rights issue. Looking at their last QR, bank borrowings due next 12 months is RM160M, unless they manage to negotiate new loans to defray the matured loans, they would need to call for the rights. Curious why rights was deferred??
BTW, SK Liew, do you actually believe investment banks given TP? Many years ago I used to believe them and also their fanciful and glorified write-ups. After a while, I realised most of their TP are quite useless, so as a rule of the thumb, for fun I would reduce their TP by 20% to 30% as my TP. LOL
Haha, Jamesbond, those TP are for reference only.... I am more interested in their projected figures and then we have to make our own judgement.... Broker houses may have their own agenda or reasons for rating a company or set a TP. Some are obliged to write good reports to please their clients who may have made request... Sometimes,we made funs of certain reports when they called foe a BUY, we said that what it meant was BYE! Haha!
But I believe Hohup will be able to perform .... the Kulai land they got it cheap and payment is by building the training center progressively.... their BJC phase 2 Aurora place, a new block of condo on the remaining 2.75 acres of and would be launched in the 3rd Quarter and their Sabah Project near the bus terminal the 4th Quarter.
Next year the entitlements to the Park Service Apartments in BJC would be rolling in... The Mall with GDV of at least 1 billion, rm180million will go into Ho hup's coffer only upon completion or sale. If it is injected to a REIT, Hohup will then get their 18% , but have to wait till completion., maybe 2020 or 2021? The 2 hotel blocks and the 1 block of Office tower, have works been started?
More entitlements and earnings in later years... Price could move up if investors buy forward for the future earnings,perhaps post RI? :)
Dato Sri Thong can pretend to start some sort of corporate exercise or start rumour to move HHup. Then green like IWCity or Malton. Kakaka. Of course IWC is real whereas Malton is rumour. Better still, get the Edge to paint some sort of glorified future for HHup.
Come on everyone in this site, shout a bit lah. Make some noise, then only HHup can divert attention from IWC and Malton. If too quiet, HHup now in sleep mode will go into coma.
Go job today HHup up, else Malton warrant also maybe catchup with HHup mother price. LOL. This site so boring, nobody seems interested in shouting. Huatttttttt
Wong Kit Leong/Raymond/Monteiro, their interest in HHup is via Red Zone. As there is no mention of new substantial shareholder, then presumably, Red Zone must have sold its interest in Omnesti to Mah Siew King. Omesti still has 12M warrant in HHup. I am curious as to... will MSK exercise or sell his + Omesti warrant(presumably now he has full control of Omesti). If he exercise, probably that means he has confidence in HHup, but if he sells....
If you check the share prices where substantial shareholders have bought the last 10 years, current prices are low. My take the reason they are not proceeding with rights is coz share price too low and they want to sell too cheap. Main shareholders like Dato Sri thong, MSK, etc are people who don't like to lose money. Look at their track record.
If u hold hohup, be prepared to subscribe to rights which is quite substantial.
Hohup took out 50 acres of land (from the 60 acres that Hohup owned) to invest Pavillion 2 with Malton (which Pavillion 1 is only 30 acres), another 10 acres for building other facilities and condos. Which Hohup didn't take out even a single cent. Whole construction project will be invested by Malton, Hohup only gave the piece of land.
The predicted value for the Pavillion 2 was RM 4.0 Billion during 2013, when Ringgit was valued at 3.06 Ringgit to 1 USD. If based on the depreciation of Ringgit throughout 4 years, the prject should be at least re-valued at RM 6.0 B.
Furthermore, during the valuation back in 2013, the strategic location of the LRT station that is right beside the Pavillion 2 was not inclusive, if that is included in the project during the re-valued, it should goes up to at least RM 8.0B to RM 12.0B. If so, each sqf is equals to at least RM 360 to RM 400. Which means, every share should be valued at RM 4.00, instead of RM0.78 as of now.
The JV project between HOHUP & MALTON to build up Pavillion 2 catch most people's attention. Calculation in 2014 predict the value of this project is RM4.0 Billion, while in 2017, because of the relationship between USD and MYR,the value is RM 6.0 billion. How much would it be when it complete? Because of the LRT station, it would be at least RM8.0 billion, at conservative estimation. (according to the transaction in bursa, value of the 30 acres Pavillion 1 is RM5.5 billion)
How much project in hands of HOHUP? Right now, RM580 milllion. In tender, RM8.0 billion. if they get 10% of them, the value would be RM800 million. Then the total value of project in hand would be RM1.3 billion.
One more unique and special JV for HOHUP is their JV with the Melaka state government to exploit one stone mountain in Melaka(only 2 stone mountain in Melaka). The stone are mostly use for the land reclamation in Melaka to build up pier. Simply said, this would bring steady income to HOHUP in a long run.
Its not their dont have money. You look at what prices the current key shareholders bought in the past 3-4 years. Its much higher than the current level. When they submit RI approval, it was 1.05 and assumption was 80 cents i think for rights ( 20% discount ).
Now at current level, they have to give an even bigger discount and the man of the street will be buying in even cheaper than the main shareholders bought in. So either they have to play up or delay like what they have doing and submit for further extension.
Born..we really don't know what the major shareholders want to do. The only thing consistent is the Low side seems to be waiting to sell their warrants. As for major shareholders buying at high price, I am not too sure about that. MSK bought from Extreme at RM0.80 and converted ICPS( issue price 0.50), average at about 0.65. Thong had about 11,000,000 bought probably between 0.60 to 1.00, convert 11,000,000 ICPS, convert 5,500,000 warrant at 0.60, convert 5,643,000RCPS, the rest bought between 2014/2015 probably at RM1.20 to RM1.80.
James, thanks for sharing as I didn't have that detail. I do remember seeing Msk and thong buying at above 1 buck for some of the shares as I went through the substantial changes in key shareholders the past 10 years briefly.
My point was they are supposedly wheeler dealer fellas so I don't think they will be exiting at this low price when they have been active in management at least the past 3 years ( Derek has been CEO for 3-4 years ? )and when the company now has good prospects
Quote James:" the rest bot between 2014/2015 probably at 1.20-1.80". The "rest" nclude the above said block above 1.30 a piece...and above 1.20 also got a few millions. :)
Jolin you are really optimistic. On 14.03 you said limit up..27.3 you use all your money and buy Ho Hup guarantee RM1.00...29.03 again you guarantee RM1.00. Today you say limit up (RM1.11). Is there a particular time frame all your guarantees will be fulfilled?
Jolin is just giving moral support to the rest of people here. Though, she is the like the opposite of iphone7 in hiaptek forum that keeps cursing the counter to drop.
If u look at her past comments, he ( coz obviously no female would call herself chi pet ) is hoping for the best. Sometimes it's good to have some optimistic people around
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
JamesPond
429 posts
Posted by JamesPond > 2017-03-13 11:27 | Report Abuse
Aiyoh, today butterfly wings clipped. Falling down instead of flying up.