Posted by speakup > 2022-11-04 11:06 | Report Abuse

U guys still here?

Posted by observatory > 2022-11-04 12:24 | Report Abuse

I actually still retain a portion, opting to receive special dividend instead of selling the entire holding which incur transaction cost. I just treat the remaining portion as cash, to be deployed if new opportunities arise. I also keep an eye for price after ex date, just in case the price gap becomes attractive.

Posted by ckkhor0722 > 2022-11-10 09:58 | Report Abuse

Hey guys, please study before u make any decision, Litrak going to be delisted next year, capital return estimate about 0.52 only.

Posted by IronShirt > 2022-11-10 10:48 | Report Abuse

Got capital repayment, people Bet for 3--4 sen spread, also syiok

Posted by observatory > 2022-11-10 11:11 | Report Abuse

According to company announcement on Oct 13, LITRAK Holdings’ portion of total equity holders’ proceeds RM2,739m. After full exercise of ESOS the number of shares will be 538.263m. Value per share = 2,739/538 = RM5.09.

Before today's ex-date, the share price has traded around RM5, which was about 10 sen or 2% discount before transaction cost.

After ex-date the remaining value is about 5.09 - 4.57 = RM0.52. The volume weighted average price up to this moment is about RM0.50, which is about 2sen or 4% discount.

It seems a fair discount. There is little attraction to buy or sell at this price.

Posted by Just88 > 2022-11-10 15:53 | Report Abuse

You have not included the cash on hand as well as the future interest income.

Posted by IronShirt > 2022-11-10 16:41 | Report Abuse

Cash in hand is inside 5.08

Posted by pogbaggmu > 2022-11-11 14:56 | Report Abuse

everyone is wrong here. the capital repayment will be a minimum of RM0.535 within 11 months. read the completion announcement where it says the actual amount received is RM2739 million, which is RM8 million higher than the amount stated in the circular previously of RM2731 million.

Posted by pogbaggmu > 2022-11-11 15:00 | Report Abuse

the circular also says any future interest income has not been calculated in yet. litrak has around RM200 million cash now after paying the special dividends. at an interest rate of around 3%, that would add another 1sen in 11 months time. that's why i say minimum RM0.535 but investors can expect RM0.545 in 11 months time. this is why there was a big wave of buying below 50sen yesterday.

Posted by Syndicates > 2022-11-11 15:01 | Report Abuse

just keep it secret bro. we diam diam collect can ady hehe.. too much people know then make lesser

Posted by Just88 > 2022-11-11 16:37 | Report Abuse

You should not include the corporate expenses and the working capital

Posted by observatory > 2022-11-11 21:58 | Report Abuse

Yes, the cash in bank generates interest. So is money parked in FD instead of chasing after Litrak shares. Moreover companies pay 25% corporate tax for their interest income while our own FD interest is tax free.

Even a holding company still incurs expenses. Up to probably a million a year for directors’ remuneration. There is also staff cost, though it could be minimal. They may also engage advisors/ consultants in winding down the company. This overhead has to be spread over a company which is now only a tenth of its previous size. The cash return will be smaller after offsetting the various cost.

This is why I feel that a few percent discount, to be realized within a 12 month period, is merely fair instead of attractive. Any gain in arbitrage has to be measured against the opportunity cost incurred.

Posted by pogbaggmu > 2022-11-11 22:29 | Report Abuse

observatory, it shows that you did not read the circular. all those expenses have been taken into account and deducted when they estimated the RM5.09 total. they even estimated RM4.7 million for all remuneration, not RM1 million like you think.

Posted by observatory > 2022-11-12 11:48 | Report Abuse

Good reminder. Page 19 of the circular has provided the breakdown - RM1.62m for disposal expenses, and RM8m for general corporate expenses.

Page 16 shows the expenses will be be deducted from the originally estimated RM2,731m (now RM2,739m, after extra RM9 or about 2% p.a. interest income as disposal date was delayed for two months)

The company will pay special dividend RM4.57 * 539m shares (as of Jun 30) = RM2,463m

The estimated amount left for final distribution to shareholders (exclude future interest income) = RM2,739m - RM2,463m - RM9.62m (though expenses could be a bit lower if completed earlier) = RM266m

Estimated final distribution per share (before future interest income) = RM266m/ 539m = RM0.49

As for interest income, as mentioned before, it's better to get tax free FD income ourselves instead of Litrak's taxable interest income.

Did I miss something?

Posted by pogbaggmu > 2022-11-12 20:32 | Report Abuse

observatory, hahaha. you seem like you can analyse but i wonder how you can miss out pg 18 when you seem to have seen pg 16 and pg 19.

it wouldn't take a genius to point out that you omitted the non-disposal cash in hand that litrak has. this is mostly from esos conversion over the years until now. this is RM39 million as pointed out in pg 18. all esos with exercise price of RM5.02 were not exercised so scenario 1(a) in pg 18 is not relevant. scenario 1(b) is the relevant one.

and btw, its not 539 million shares. its 541.46 million shares now.

go on and recalculate. the amount i get is RM0.543 and that does not include any future interest income. lets see if you can pull out something "different" now.

Posted by csan > 2022-11-12 21:50 | Report Abuse

pogbaggmu, your calculation is correct but don't be so sarcastic. observatory made a mistake and is in denial. its quite common.

Posted by observatory > 2022-11-13 11:44 | Report Abuse

Yes, I missed out page18. The calculation would have been a lot simpler by just taking the originally stated RM5.09 and add the interest accrued as announced on Oct13.
I'm glad that by posting my calculation it attracted correction. It looks like I can afford to sit on the share a lot longer.

Csan, welcome back. Haha, of all people, you're the one advising others not to be sarcastic? But still I appreciate your earlier warning that the deal may fall through and Litrak may have to dispose at a lower price. Despite the scenario never came true, caution was still warranted.
No, I'm not in denial. What for? Both denial and pride are just unnecessary emotional baggage.

Posted by Just88 > 2022-11-13 16:37 | Report Abuse

Anyone knows that under PN16, only the money inside the trust account is certain to be distributed to the shareholders prior to delisting ? And that money is definitely less than 0.50 a share.

Posted by csan > 2022-11-13 20:29 | Report Abuse

observatory, yes i actually took profit for most of my holdings at around RM4.90 and kept the rest. could have earned a little bit more if i had kept it all. and no, RM5.09 + interest accrued is not correct. it should be RM5.09 + additional RM8 million due to delay in completion + interest accrued. overall, it should not be a surprise if we get around RM0.55 in 11 months time.

just88, its capital repayment after liquidation. and what other assets does litrak have now other than cash in trust account? lol

Posted by taitaumau > 2022-11-13 23:12 | Report Abuse

Not to dampen the high expectation of return as shown by many of you, may i take a cautious views to draw your attention on the following matters
Upon completion of disposal on 13/10/22,
1. Compensation receivables (80.5M) - this amount is still pending certification by Malaysian Highway Authority. EGM circular says "If the Government of Malaysia actually settles less than the amount receivable shown in this Circular for any reason, then the relevant Concession Holding Company bears the full risk of this shortfall.
2. Retention sum (20.5M) - uncertain whether there is any warranty claim (retention period will only expire on 31/1/13)

Anyway, i do hope that there is no significant impact on capital repayment should the above events unfortunately occur.
Note: EGM Circular Pg 118 refers

Posted by taitaumau > 2022-11-13 23:16 | Report Abuse

correction: retention period expires on 31/1/2023

Posted by csan > 2022-11-14 02:10 | Report Abuse

taitaumau, the circular also says that the actual amount received compared to the estimate has always been +-5% historically. The future interest income should cover for any shortfall. and if i am not mistaken, there is also a WACC return on that retention sum that ALR has to pay to Litrak.

Posted by Just88 > 2022-11-14 15:10 | Report Abuse

Only 90% of the money is in the trust acccount

Posted by csan > 2022-11-14 17:01 | Report Abuse

just88, are you referring to investment in securities as the non-trust cash?

Posted by Just88 > 2022-11-14 17:58 | Report Abuse

No, its asset is 100% in cash, but only 90% of the cash is in designated trust account which can only be distributed to shareholders or acquiring new business. Balance is in normal bank account under BOD's free control.

Posted by csan > 2022-11-14 18:41 | Report Abuse

just88, now i understand. this should be for the RM9.6 million in future estimated expenses?

Posted by Just88 > 2022-11-14 20:03 | Report Abuse

Csan, the regulation stipulates that at least 90% cash in hand must be placed in a designated trust account. Could be more than the estimated future expenses. Need to wait for the next results to see the trust amount.

Posted by speakup > 2022-11-15 09:01 | Report Abuse

Speakup bought 3.80, sold off all avg 4.97

Posted by rohank71 > 2022-11-18 09:11 | Report Abuse

all made money here. dividend paid out yesterday. enjoy the last 53 to 55 Sen in Oct 2023 or earlier.

Posted by cklimm > 2022-11-18 10:24 | Report Abuse

there goes our Goose that Laid the Golden Eggs

Posted by speakup > 2022-11-20 22:16 | Report Abuse

good thing litrak sale to alr completed before GE15, otherwise litrak deal sure cancelled by PN

Posted by speakup > 2022-11-30 21:59 | Report Abuse

After Litrak, will govt privatise IJM's LEKAS, NPE & BESRAYA?

Posted by sylvester89 > 2023-01-06 11:43 | Report Abuse

alamak when the price will go up again @_@

Posted by Just88 > 2023-01-08 08:41 | Report Abuse

There is not much upside in Litrak left as it will be delisted soon.

Posted by sylvester89 > 2023-01-09 10:58 | Report Abuse

No wonder this company is switching to private property soon. So which mean has the right to delist LITRAK from Bursa anytime right?

Posted by csan > 2023-01-28 00:42 | Report Abuse

warranty period ending. big money coming from ALR soon.

Posted by speakup > 2023-02-02 21:03 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/02/02/alr-seeks-extension-on-warranty-claim-period-from-highway-concessionaires

Posted by speakup > 2023-02-02 21:03 | Report Abuse

this is called moving the goal post

Posted by observatory > 2023-03-01 09:03 | Report Abuse

Apparently, NTA per share is only RM0.515 as of 31 Dec 2022

Posted by speakup > 2023-03-01 09:18 | Report Abuse

Obviously around there.

Posted by csan > 2023-03-01 10:41 | Report Abuse

the management must now make sure that litrak gets the highest interest income for its cash. last quarter litrak earned RM7 million in interest income.

Posted by taitaumau > 2023-03-01 12:05 | Report Abuse

csan, i believe 3Q RM 7 m is mainly contributed from 1 month interest earned on special dividend 2,475 M prior to its payment to shareholders

Posted by csan > 2023-03-01 14:14 | Report Abuse

taitaumau, as you pointed out earlier, government receivable around RM80million, retention sum around RM20million. but balance sheet only has RM75million receivable. any idea where is the balance RM25million? or is the RM75million in the balance sheet a conservative estimate?

Posted by Just88 > 2023-03-01 15:20 | Report Abuse

A lot of people are caught surprised by the warranty claims

Posted by taitaumau > 2023-03-01 15:43 | Report Abuse

Scan, my understandings (may be wrong):
1. Sprint disposal proceeds for compensation rec. (47 x 1/2) and retention monies (7 x 1/2), Total= 23.5 + 3.5 = 27 M (b4 any warranty claim) is receivable by Ass. Co. (Sprint Holding, S, unlisted). This amount will only be reflected in Litrak Holding ( H, listed) upon receipt ( under equity accounting)
2. This amount is hidden in Holding A/C under the heading "Assets held for distribution" , though the value is stated nil, in order to comply with Acc. standard
3. This sum, TOGETHER WITH OTHER ASSETS x 1/2, IF ANY, will be distributed to H , via capital repayment exercise,

hopefully. situation not that bad as we think

Posted by Just88 > 2023-03-01 15:59 | Report Abuse

Taitaumau, how bad can the situation be ?

Posted by taitaumau > 2023-03-01 16:14 | Report Abuse

Risks include:
Compensation rec. - delay in receipt plus shortfall
Warranty claims - H & S didn't dispute for reduced final agreed sum
Subsequent Corporate expenses - significant prior to winding up

Posted by Just88 > 2023-03-01 16:20 | Report Abuse

Thanks, taitaumau

Posted by Syndicates > 2023-03-01 19:56 | Report Abuse

not to forget the QR is only reported until 31 dec, retention sum is not deducted by warranty claim. hence the NTA should be 0.515 minus 0.02 (warranty claim) = 0.495

Posted by speakup > 2023-03-01 21:20 | Report Abuse

as far as LITRAK is concerned, the big money is already made. speakup bought 3.80+, sold 4.90+.
if u wan bet on future privatisations, here's the list: MPHBCAP, INSAS, ICAP, FACBIND, KSENG