Now 2.13 @ pe17. mgmt said 2nd half better due to lower butadiene price. If use current price 2.13 and next earn 5m, eps 0.132, pe 16. Is it strong enough to pull in big fund?
Seems like it will stay range-bound above RM2 until next QR is released. If Superlon's profit margin continue to be slim, it will go down below RM2. If it recovers, it will shoot up. Whether it's the former or latter, depends on your research skill.
nov-dec rainy and cold one, msia, vietnam dont use air cond. sales not super high and raw mat not super low. so profit will so-so also. i may not right but looking to buy 1.9+
RSI now below 40%. If below 30% would better to collect. Next resistance 1.87.
Risks: 1-Have CNY coming. 2-Next qtr only in Mar'18, still long to go. 3-YoY need to beat 6.25m, if not -ve 4-QoQ need to beat 3.6m, if not -ve 5-Not sure Q3 sales ok or not? Only insider knows. 6-No idea on butadiene price shart in Q3? If have can share.
This article may provide some indication on butadiene price. Peaked in Feb/Mar 2017 at USD3k/tonne and has since average USD1.3k/tonne.
Superlon reported poor result and low margin in May-Jul and Aug-Oct quarters. Assuming they buy raw material stock 6 months in advance, they will be using butadiene bought in May-Jul17 for the upcoming Nov17-Jan18 quarter.
I predict that they should have used up all the expensive butadiene in their production. Upcoming result announcement in March should be better.
@SuperPanda nov-dec rainy and cold one, msia, vietnam dont use air cond.
Well... On this argument of yours, it is the same kind of weather every end of the year. That's why result is more frequently compared YoY rather than QoQ.
1. result out in Mar 2018 2. still uncertain of the butadine price 3. still uncertain on the margin 4. if Mar 2018 result announce continue to be weak, will down even more
So even now good to buy, but wait first, later maybe even more value buy
Cash on hand always have better power than money put into a uncertain stocks
Only when you are certain of its growth / profit then only invest
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Chen Fook Ming
118 posts
Posted by Chen Fook Ming > 2018-01-08 22:01 | Report Abuse
Confirm cannot reach...I am eye to eye with u superpanda