Back in town. Monday getting ready to buy more superln shares, dispose cheaply by KWAP .Just got some at 1.43 on CNY eve. Will try @ 1.38, or lower! Happy 初三to ALL.
RainT, I like to buy shares with good fundament,even if it is a fallen knife share. Besides that, I have full confidence in the management team, especially the ceo Liew and his parent . Cheers
Superlon's share price has fallen by 48% from its peak of RM2.92 to RM1.51 now. Consequently, its PE has also fallen to 12, which is pretty attractive. Of course, profitability is the most important factor that drives the share price.
@RainT As you have rightfully pointed out, we won't know if it's good or bad. If it's bad, it will continue to inch down little by little (Won't gap down because the market is currently having low expectation on Superlon). If it recovers and post a good result, it will gap up because it beats market expectation.
Arguments supporting Superlon's recovery: 1. Butadiene price has recovered now 2. Butadiene inventory bought previously at high price is used up in the past 2 quarters. Now, they are using the cheaper butadiene and thus lower cost. 3. Superlon can pass the cost to customers
Arguments against Superlon's recovery: 1. No clear/accurate data on Butadiene price thus difficult to estimate 2. Expensive butadiene still not used up in still in Superlon's inventory 3. Unable to pass cost to customer 4. Weakening USD may impact Superlon's earning (75% denominated in USD)
csl1991. l like your analysis on superln's production cost . Besides what you mentioned above, I think our strong ringgit also will help to keep the raw material cost down. This morning I just accumulated some at 1.50. RainT, Your concern on the further decline of the share price is also valid as I guess there are still some weak holders out there, who are willing to sell their stocks below the purchase prices.KWAP is still holding 16 million shares, let see what happened.
I have done my due diligence on Superlon, but just don't hit the buy button due to uncertainty of its coming March result
Really unsure the reasons behind recent shoot up of its share price, maybe :
(1) insider buying due to have information of good coming qtr result (2) some big funds buying in due to its good prospect (3) some ppl purposely push the price up with some intention (eg to send false signal)
We the ikan bilis usually will lose out due to information asymmetry. We get information late, insiders move after few days will out, qtr report out after share price have shoot etc.
I have freak experiences with the counters where the share price shoot up and when qtr result out, actually is bad. So some party purposely push up the price to mislead. But there are also example that share price shoot up is really due to good qtr result...
Buying into shares in Bursa is partly on our won due diligence plus with luck also...
So is it to late to buy in now at RM1.80???....lets buy and wait and see
@RainT you did not learn from mistake from the past. You worry before you did not do well homework on fundamental analysis. Pls read and digest what Darkstar shares on the stock selection guidance. It's simple but effective.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
frankie lim
72 posts
Posted by frankie lim > 2018-02-15 11:18 | Report Abuse
is a sinking ship .... why still go in .......really dont understand