If tsh can generate 1 billion revenue per annum. it can at least generate 20 to 30 billion for the next 20 yrs. Why is it only valued at 1.3 billion now. Current planted land mass is only 50% of its total land mass. So why a 30 to 60 billion potential revenue generating business over the next 20 yrs is only valued at 1.3 billion now?
If TSH able to give only 30% of profit as dividend. 30 billion x 10% margin = 3 billion x 30% = 900 million u will be getting didivend over 70 sen and that is not considering any windfall profit or higher profit along the way. Basically rm1 now is risk free.
Why i like TSH Insanely cheap and super unvervalued. Insanely condemned (best point) Boss is a very filial son to his parent . This type of boss won't con you.
Invest in Plantation stock is like buy property. Get rental and enjoy the value appreciation over long term.
And after Inno pared down all its loans to zero Inno and started giving out good dividends Inno share price jumped from 50 sen to almost Rm2.00 (up 400%)
So just watch Tsh as we move forward
The time to shine for Tsh will come after Ijmplant, bplant and jtiasa
Holland buying lots of palm oil. Europe say dont want palm oil but action speaks louder than words! With soybean oil out of market due to red sea problem. They need more palm oil for replacement. They want sustainable palm oil. Good news for big company with sustainable practice. Bad news for small planters as most of them do not.
TSH is not so favoured in the past due to some reasons
1. Insane condemn relentlessly for personal reason. Most retailers will avoid this counter . Then who is buying in big tickets recently? Definitely they bought for some long term reason as wkly and monthly chart already show reversal sign and breaking out imminent. Thus they must have known of any short term blip or bad news like production drop (probably due to flooding). Then why are they still buying so much. Any short term blip is always good to flush out contra and weak investor.
2. Dividend yield. /Retailers and long term fund love dividend. So likely they will choose high dividend plantation counter. If a plantation counter keep paying high dividend it might mean they have limited fund for replanting and acquisition. If they also servicing high debts mean they have limited chance for acquisition for growth. No replanting will cause future susutainable in revenue and no acquisition means no much growth. So it might signal you may be paying a current historical high price for their limited growth future.
Tsh is utilizing their cash these past few years for
1. Automation. this increase future profitability and these will be reflected gradually in future as it is not a one day process since this is a big company. 2.Replanting. TSH got a lot of spare land for replanting . TSH now have plently of spare cash for replanting as well. Replanting need alot of spare cash not many plantation enjoy that. This assured investor their revenue is sustainable and will ensure growth as well. 3. Acquisition. TSH reserve a lot of cash and will have no problem making acquisition for future growth.TSH is also net cash soon and will have no issue to borrow from bank or raise capital from Bursa or SGX. 4. Buidling 4-5 biogas plant and solar project. Everyone knows there is a increasing trend in power tariffs. Especially green power fetch a even higher price. This investment will buffer them from future rising cost and also gain additional profit when sell back to power grid. ESG rating will be better as well. Looking around how many plantation company are building so many biogas plant?
Since TSH going to net cash soon. So they might increase their dividend yield in future. Then current price will be the a cheap price when you look back in future.
Amazing. Two persons look at the same stock, have similar conclusions about its longer term value but the approach they take is entirely different. One can warm you to the stock, the other can put you off.
TSH is not best stock. But it is a good fundamental stock. Why so much negativity. Many poeple think this is a trash stock. Thats what interest me. When there is divergent there is opportunity.
TSH provides very good liquidity for bigger fund and rich investor. They can move in and out with ease. Imagine they gonna buy other low liquidity plantation stock and throw in 10 million. The price will go high up in the sky and not good for them. Likewise if they want to divest.
I sold jtisia n bot more tsh. Jtisia had no monthly bolinger band squueze breakout. The run might be loosing steam. It is reaching triple top on mthly chart. I wont take risk here. For tsh mthly bb squeeze is much tighter.many had been washed out. Imminent break out coming.
Tolerable risk if going small. Take some off my profitable JTiasa and put into TSH. Wrong is where you learn from mistakes, not deny you were ever wrong.
But over the past few year TSH’s ROE have been improving. In fact in 2022 it did better than KLK and its 2023 ROE is probably going to match that of KLK.
Is this then a company with improving fundamentals? The plantation sector is cyclical and you have to look at its performance over the cycle for any meaningful conclusion
But from the short term perspective there may be a trading opportunity as the market have yet to price in its improved performance. https://i.postimg.cc/B6JTzfnQ/TSH.png
Jtisia went up from 65 sen to 118 (almost 80% since mthly macd cross above 0 in june 2023.
What will happen when TSH cross Mthly macd Golden cross above 0 in feb? from rm1 to 2 ? Coincidentally TSH last Bollinger band squeeze break out and MACD monthly move above 0 happened in Feb 2022. So i sold Jtisia and bot more TSH. Going buy more if any correction.
FCPO break above 4k as expected. Commodity market is warming up to rate cut . since FED think inflation is at 2% now ( although i disgree but u cant argue with the boss) and it means cpo ihad already found its bottom price at 4k now. All commodity had found it bottom now since Fed declare 2% target reach. Becareful of sector like property, infra and construction as commodity affect bulk of their profit.
For a hypothetical exercise on his prescient stock picking skills in 2022 for plantation stocks, Calvin should do this instead of shouting he is chun chun this and that. Assume RM100k cash outlay, splash out RM10k at then closing market price on 26.1.2022 (or such other selected historical date) spread over his 10 pebbles and determine gain/loss as at closing market price on 26.01.2024. That's a two year cycle that includes price run ups of BPlant and JTiasa. I would bet this 10 pebble portfolio lost money.
While you're at it Calvin, try different start dates around when you issued buy kaw kaw dates such as April 22, May 22 or June 22. Keep the end date at 26.01.24. Just to see how different the results turn out to be when you get the market timing wrong. Whatever you are, you are a prolific writer and I give you credit for that. Just need much more objectivity and focus.
What a pathetically poor use of the 8 hours between the first and last post on the question ie what is the value of the RM100k portfolio invested in 10 pebbles after a two year period ending 26 Jan 2024? Calvin gets an ''F" for his reply because the question is not answered. And he thinks he's so right. A clue was given to resolve the question in only 5 minutes or less but Calvin failed to see it. There were 2 of 10 stocks named that gave the bulk of gains in that period and with Pareto's principle, one would have quickly realized these 2 stocks provided more than 80% of the gains.
If a date in April 2022 were to be chosen as the start date, the outcome would be drastically different as many plantation stocks were near its high and gains from the 2 stocks may not have covered losses on the other 8 ie Pareto's principle is not applicable then.
If you want to know the approximate value of the RM100k portfolio on 26.01.24, just merely tote up the gains on Bplant and Jtiasa and add it to the RM100K capital. You don't need to be mathematically exact because investing is not a science.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
OneOracle
530 posts
Posted by OneOracle > 2024-01-24 09:19 | Report Abuse
If tsh can generate 1 billion revenue per annum.
it can at least generate 20 to 30 billion for the next 20 yrs.
Why is it only valued at 1.3 billion now.
Current planted land mass is only 50% of its total land mass.
So why a 30 to 60 billion potential revenue generating business over the next 20 yrs is only valued at 1.3 billion now?
If TSH able to give only 30% of profit as dividend.
30 billion x 10% margin = 3 billion x 30% = 900 million
u will be getting didivend over 70 sen and that is not considering any windfall profit or higher profit along the way.
Basically rm1 now is risk free.